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Roster Speculation 15-16, Part X "Because... Reasons"

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01-26-2016, 10:05 AM
  #1
Husko
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Roster Speculation 15-16, Part X "Because... Reasons"

Quote:
Originally Posted by stokes84 View Post
2 months of relatively decent play and w can just forget about the last three years of train wreck. Pass.
A TRAINWRECK I SAY

I like Weber. My issue with hm isn't that he sucks, it's that I think a stable LHD in his prime isn't going to sign a 2 year deal, 3rd pairing deal. Maybe I'm wrong and he sticks around for 2X2.5, I'd be all for that, but I see a much more 'big boy' contract available to him from someone.

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01-26-2016, 10:06 AM
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Originally Posted by Husko View Post
A TRAINWRECK I SAY

I like Weber. My issue with hm isn't that he sucks, it's that I think a stable LHD in his prime isn't going to sign a 2 year deal, 3rd pairing deal. Maybe I'm wrong and he sticks around for 2X2.5, I'd be all for that, but I see a much more 'big boy' contract available to him from someone.
right... because Cody Franson got...

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Old
01-26-2016, 10:10 AM
  #3
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I'll put this here too:

Jame/anyone:

How do the advanced stats posted for Weber compare to other 3rd pairing Dmen?

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01-26-2016, 10:20 AM
  #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zman5778 View Post
I'll put this here too:

Jame/anyone:

How do the advanced stats posted for Weber compare to other 3rd pairing Dmen?
I'll put this here too for the context:
(from previous thread)

How do you upgrade these 3rd pair numbers...

GF 1.81
GA 1.40
GF% 56.5
CF 49.95
CA 45.63
CF% 52.3


I know everyone hate metrics that don't conform to previously held beliefs... but those are downright excellent 3rd pair D numbers...

Here's what he's done when 2/3 of his ice time is spent carrying Franson around...

1.21
1.21
50.0
47.88
45.45
51.3

and here's Franson without Weber
1.27
2.07
38.1
48.31
54.82
46.8

Franson is completely useless.

And while the narrative is going to be the boost that Pysyk has brought to Weber's metrics (it's true). Weber has also been an excellent compliment to Pysyk.

Pysyk w/ Weber
2.81
1.41
66.7
66.12
36.58
64.4

Pysyk w/o Weber
1.13
2.27
33.3
51.66
51.21
50.2

Weber's been on the ice for 10 ES goals against this year. TEN. Every other defensemen on the team has a negative GF/GA differential. Yea. he's playing easy competition, with good forward lines. It's a 3rd pairing role. But hes playing it as good as anyone can play it. And when asked to step up and play with Pysyk, they don't lose a step.

----------

Here's Eric Gryba?

1.91
2.16
46.8
55.85
55.85
50.0

Martin Marincin?

1.42
1.57
47.4
57.47
48.02
54.5

Ben Chiarot?

1.56
2.08
42.9
48.35
54.85
46.9

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01-26-2016, 10:24 AM
  #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zman5778 View Post
I'll put this here too:

Jame/anyone:

How do the advanced stats posted for Weber compare to other 3rd pairing Dmen?
He's been a good shot suppressing defenseman for the past two seasons, but has fluctuated mightily at that over the past 5 years and his skillset/role is such that he doesn't really have a discernible impact out there.

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01-26-2016, 10:27 AM
  #6
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If Murray managed to get out from under the Moulson contract this offseason (unlikely), would you look to spend the cap space saved on a bigger name FA at a position of need (Ladd/Backes types come to mind), or are you staying away from big name FAs all together?

I think I'm staying away from the FA market unless it's to bolster the bottom six and the blue line. Even then, I'd prefer the trade route, I think.

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Old
01-26-2016, 10:29 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
right... because Cody Franson got...
Cody Franson also has a valuable niche.

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01-26-2016, 10:29 AM
  #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stokes84 View Post
Cody Franson also has a valuable niche.
And so does Weber

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Old
01-26-2016, 10:31 AM
  #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
I'll put this here too for the context:
(from previous thread)

How do you upgrade these 3rd pair numbers...

GF 1.81
GA 1.40
GF% 56.5
CF 49.95
CA 45.63
CF% 52.3


I know everyone hate metrics that don't conform to previously held beliefs... but those are downright excellent 3rd pair D numbers...

Here's what he's done when 2/3 of his ice time is spent carrying Franson around...

1.21
1.21
50.0
47.88
45.45
51.3

and here's Franson without Weber
1.27
2.07
38.1
48.31
54.82
46.8

Franson is completely useless.

And while the narrative is going to be the boost that Pysyk has brought to Weber's metrics (it's true). Weber has also been an excellent compliment to Pysyk.

Pysyk w/ Weber
2.81
1.41
66.7
66.12
36.58
64.4

Pysyk w/o Weber
1.13
2.27
33.3
51.66
51.21
50.2

Weber's been on the ice for 10 ES goals against this year. TEN. Every other defensemen on the team has a negative GF/GA differential. Yea. he's playing easy competition, with good forward lines. It's a 3rd pairing role. But hes playing it as good as anyone can play it. And when asked to step up and play with Pysyk, they don't lose a step.

----------

Here's Eric Gryba?

1.91
2.16
46.8
55.85
55.85
50.0

Martin Marincin?

1.42
1.57
47.4
57.47
48.02
54.5

Ben Chiarot?

1.56
2.08
42.9
48.35
54.85
46.9
A guy on the main board did this exact same thing to show that Risto was bringing down Gorges.

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Old
01-26-2016, 10:32 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zman5778 View Post
And so does Weber
Which is??? What is his valuable skill set that other bottom pair players don't have?

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01-26-2016, 10:32 AM
  #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gallagt01 View Post
If Murray managed to get out from under the Moulson contract this offseason (unlikely), would you look to spend the cap space saved on a bigger name FA at a position of need (Ladd/Backes types come to mind), or are you staying away from big name FAs all together?

I think I'm staying away from the FA market unless it's to bolster the bottom six and the blue line. Even then, I'd prefer the trade route, I think.
I'm leaning toward staying out of big UFA waters and instead looking for late summer values there. For team building purposes, the use of prospects and picks to identify and acquire another younger NHL or near-ready prospect would seem to be a likely focus too, given GMTM's methods.

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01-26-2016, 10:33 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gallagt01 View Post
If Murray managed to get out from under the Moulson contract this offseason (unlikely), would you look to spend the cap space saved on a bigger name FA at a position of need (Ladd/Backes types come to mind), or are you staying away from big name FAs all together?

I think I'm staying away from the FA market unless it's to bolster the bottom six and the blue line. Even then, I'd prefer the trade route, I think.
I'd pay Backes specifically a dumb amount over a short term because of his defense and positional versatility.

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01-26-2016, 10:46 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gallagt01 View Post
If Murray managed to get out from under the Moulson contract this offseason (unlikely), would you look to spend the cap space saved on a bigger name FA at a position of need (Ladd/Backes types come to mind), or are you staying away from big name FAs all together?

I think I'm staying away from the FA market unless it's to bolster the bottom six and the blue line. Even then, I'd prefer the trade route, I think.
Kane and Ladd back in the same room? I'm not saying it can't be done, but I'm not sure that Murray would seek that out. Ladd also looks to have lost a step - could be the nagging injury - so I'm not necessarily in a hurry to give him at least 6 yrs and $36m that Lawless suspects will be the minimum needed to sign Ladd.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chainshot View Post
I'm leaning toward staying out of big UFA waters and instead looking for late summer values there. For team building purposes, the use of prospects and picks to identify and acquire another younger NHL or near-ready prospect would seem to be a likely focus too, given GMTM's methods.
I'd also look for older guys on short-term deals. Guys who can still play like Brian Campbell and Radim Vrbata pique my interest.

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Old
01-26-2016, 10:46 AM
  #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stokes84 View Post
A guy on the main board did this exact same thing to show that Risto was bringing down Gorges.
Lots of people use metrics to make embarrassingly stupid arguments. I saw this one guy try to use them in a Girgensons argument. It was highly entertaining for everyone.

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01-26-2016, 10:47 AM
  #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stokes84 View Post
Cody Franson also has a valuable niche.
That sounds so... dirty.

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01-26-2016, 10:47 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by struckbyaparkedcar View Post
I'd pay Backes specifically a dumb amount over a short term because of his defense and positional versatility.
Ditto. What would a Matt Moulson buyout cost us down the line?

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01-26-2016, 10:52 AM
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Originally Posted by haseoke39 View Post
Ditto. What would a Matt Moulson buyout cost us down the line?
I laid it out in the previous Roster Speculation thread within the last week. You'll have to find it, but the buyout is so prohibitive in years where we'd want to compete that it would make more sense to bury him in Rochester for a year or two than to take serious dead money on the cap after the contract would otherwise have expired.

Essentially, a buyout is not a good option.

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01-26-2016, 11:07 AM
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
right... because Cody Franson got...
You can't use Cody franson as a comparable when your entire argument is that weber is good and franson sucks

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01-26-2016, 11:07 AM
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Originally Posted by Zip15 View Post
I laid it out in the previous Roster Speculation thread within the last week. You'll have to find it, but the buyout is so prohibitive in years where we'd want to compete that it would make more sense to bury him in Rochester for a year or two than to take serious dead money on the cap after the contract would otherwise have expired.

Essentially, a buyout is not a good option.
Does burial take him off the cap?

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01-26-2016, 11:08 AM
  #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gallagt01 View Post
If Murray managed to get out from under the Moulson contract this offseason (unlikely), would you look to spend the cap space saved on a bigger name FA at a position of need (Ladd/Backes types come to mind), or are you staying away from big name FAs all together?

I think I'm staying away from the FA market unless it's to bolster the bottom six and the blue line. Even then, I'd prefer the trade route, I think.
What about Kyle Okposo? I think he'd a big help in bolstering scoring and helping the Sabres get out of this rebuild.

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01-26-2016, 11:13 AM
  #21
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Bylsma/Weber 15-16
3rd Pair - Franson, Pysyk
1.81
1.40
56.5
49.95
45.63
52.3

Rolston/Nolan/Weber 13-15 (2 seasons)
Crap Team, Crap System, Crap Usage
1.26
2.85
30.7
43.02
65.46
39.7

Ruff/Rolston/Weber 12-13
All over the place usage. Splits by role/partner/coach. Overall:
2.01
2.10
48.8
42.65
62.16
40.7

Ruff/Weber 11-12
Shutdown Role - Regehr
1.31
2.76
32.1
49.48
53.41
48.1

Ruff/Weber/10-11
3rd Pair - Morrison, Sekera
2.45
1.89
56.5
52.48
55.91
48.4

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01-26-2016, 11:17 AM
  #22
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Originally Posted by haseoke39 View Post
Does burial take him off the cap?
No. It saves ~900-950 k. but doesn't push any money in to future years.

Looks like our best option is to find someone willing to take him at 50% reduced salary in a year our 2. He'll have the choice of hitting waivers and going to rochester, or waiving his NTC to stay in the bigs.

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01-26-2016, 11:19 AM
  #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
I'll put this here too for the context:
(from previous thread)

How do you upgrade these 3rd pair numbers...

GF 1.81
GA 1.40
GF% 56.5
CF 49.95
CA 45.63
CF% 52.3
The most important number is missing - QoC (and the amount of ES time).

We will have young defense next year as well. And I hope we won't be (again) in a situation where Risto/Pysyk/McCabe needs to be put in too demanding situation or having too much ice time. The amount of ES time Risto/Bogo had when they played separately was/is huge. You don't want to see them playing +20 minutes on ES just because you have to shelter your third-pairing like hell.

We need to improve the defense by dropping guys down from the depth chart (basically the same we did with the offense this year). D-men like Weber, Franson or Cola shouldn't be more than 7th guys. Signing/keeping any of those guys as 7th guy is fine for me. More than that, I'm disappointed.

We're not a team who needs to have bad third pairing because of salary cap.

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01-26-2016, 11:22 AM
  #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
Bylsma/Weber 15-16
3rd Pair - Franson, Pysyk
1.81
1.40
56.5
49.95
45.63
52.3

Rolston/Nolan/Weber 13-15 (2 seasons)
Crap Team, Crap System, Crap Usage
1.26
2.85
30.7
43.02
65.46
39.7

Ruff/Rolston/Weber 12-13
All over the place usage. Splits by role/partner/coach. Overall:
2.01
2.10
48.8
42.65
62.16
40.7

Ruff/Weber 11-12
Shutdown Role - Regehr
1.31
2.76
32.1
49.48
53.41
48.1

Ruff/Weber/10-11
3rd Pair - Morrison, Sekera
2.45
1.89
56.5
52.48
55.91
48.4
I have no idea what I'm look at. Now I know how Paul Hamilton feels.

Edit: ok I see now.

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Old
01-26-2016, 11:23 AM
  #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Heraldic View Post
The most important number is missing - QoC (and the amount of ES time).
I dont think it is. As i've stated numerous times. He's very good "in a 3rd pair role". The QOC is implied.

Quote:
We will have young defense next year as well. And I hope we won't be (again) in a situation where Risto/Pysyk/McCabe needs to be put in too demanding situation or having too much ice time. The amount of ES time Risto/Bogo had when they played separately was/is huge. You don't want to see them playing +20 minutes on ES just because you have to shelter your third-pairing like hell.
Why not? That's how it should work. Our Risto pair should be gobbling up big time/tough minutes. Solving the LD issue on that pair is a huge need for this organization.

Quote:
We need to improve the defense by dropping guys down from the depth chart (basically the same we did with the offense this year). D-men like Weber, Franson or Cola shouldn't be more than 7th guys. Signing/keeping any of those guys as 7th guy is fine for me. More than that, I'm disappointed.
It's simply an unrealistic view of a 3rd pair.

Quote:
We're not a team who needs to have bad third pairing because of salary cap.
The fact is that we do NOT have a bad 3rd pairing. That's the point.

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