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The 2013 NHL Entry Draft: Part II | [Avs Currently In: 29th overall]

View Poll Results: Besides the Big 3 who would you want the Avs to draft?
Barkov 58 44.62%
Erne 1 0.77%
Lindholm 23 17.69%
Monahan 6 4.62%
Nichushkin 16 12.31%
Nurse 9 6.92%
Pulock 2 1.54%
Ristolainen 3 2.31%
Shinkaruk 6 4.62%
Wennberg 2 1.54%
Zadorov 1 0.77%
OTHER 3 2.31%
Voters: 130. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
04-05-2013, 10:34 AM
  #276
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Originally Posted by Super Joe Sakic View Post
Here is what another person from Portland had to say:

Sorry if this ends up in the wrong story line, but did anyone else se EJ Hradek on NHL Live this afternoon pick Seth Jones as his # 1 US born hockey player??, and he hasn't even been drafted?? He thinks he can play in the NHL NOW! I'm sorry, but I like Seth, and see his potential, but he is NOT NHL ready... He would get eaten alive by the Big Boys.. I see him make horrendous mistakes that you just cannot make in the big league! I think he has to play in Portland next year, and iron out those wrinkles. Anyway, good luck to the boys tonite against Tri Cities.
This is what happens when you look into what FANS say. Working in the hockey world, I can tell you that the vast majority of "fans" are actually clueless about the game of hockey, let alone what goes into the decision of who the best prospects are. That may be cruel and offensive to some people, but believe me, it's true.

I've seen Jones play between 15-20 games now over the past 3 years (live, on TV and online) and I can say without a doubt that he is NHL ready.

Does he need to get bigger and stronger? Absolutely. But with a frame that's 6'4+ and still growing, there is immense potential in regards to how big and strong he could get.

Does he need to learn to take contact? Absolutely. But, he's so smart with the puck and with his stick/body positioning, that he simply hardly ever gets hit. There will definitely be an adjustment period for this part of his game, but with such a big frame, he should be able to take some punishment better than a player who is only 5'11 or even 6'2.

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04-05-2013, 10:35 AM
  #277
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I love you guys. I understand people like PAZ who have watched him play a couple times and make a opinion, but the rest of you judging the kid based on defensemen draft history, picking out Winterhawk fans' posts, and even D2M using one little 30 second clip of him beating by a GOOD prospect without watching him play on a regular bases in Portland is just laughable.

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04-05-2013, 10:46 AM
  #278
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Originally Posted by MagicianHishon View Post
It's funny, in watching this video, the thing that actually stood out most to me was the defensive sequence by Seth Jones at 2:00. Shows off some great examples of his reach, quick feet, smarts and his ability to not overthink the play.

In the 11 second clip he:

1. Uses his skating to cut down the angle on the onrushing player.

2. Reads the play to aid his winger, jump up in his coverage along the wall to cut off the cycle.

3. Lay the body to separate a player from the puck along the boards.

4. Uses his reach to poke the puck away from the other forward in on the cycle.


You don't usually see plays like that from 17 year old players on the biggest stage that junior hockey has to offer.

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04-05-2013, 10:50 AM
  #279
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As for Nichushkin, he's no doubt a talented kid. He's a big body that skates well, has a great shot and loves to drive the net. He's absolutely worth the talk of being a potential top 3 pick.

With that being said, I still have concerns about his hockey sense and ability to read the play. He tends to try and do too much himself and needs to use his teammates more effectively.

Is that something that can be developed in time? For sure. But with questionable hockey sense, you never know. Even without that potential tool in his tool box, he clearly has the other skills to make him a dynamic NHL prospect.

I could definitely see teams trying to trade up into the top 5 just for a chance to get him.

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04-05-2013, 10:53 AM
  #280
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Originally Posted by Renegade Stylings View Post
As for Nichushkin, he's no doubt a talented kid. He's a big body that skates well, has a great shot and loves to drive the net. He's absolutely worth the talk of being a potential top 3 pick.

With that being said, I still have concerns about his hockey sense and ability to read the play. He tends to try and do too much himself and needs to use his teammates more effectively.

Is that something that can be developed in time? For sure. But with questionable hockey sense, you never know. Even without that potential tool in his tool box, he clearly has the other skills to make him a dynamic NHL prospect.

I could definitely see teams trying to trade up into the top 5 just for a chance to get him.
Yeah you can say that his only weakness is he plays with blinders some times on rushes. But there were a few times in the WJC, when he made some sick passes when you think he would rush in and shoot. Get him with a playmaking offensive coach (or assistant coach for that matter) and don't think the team drafting him would have to worry.

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04-05-2013, 11:06 AM
  #281
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Originally Posted by Renegade Stylings View Post
This is what happens when you look into what FANS say. Working in the hockey world, I can tell you that the vast majority of "fans" are actually clueless about the game of hockey, let alone what goes into the decision of who the best prospects are. That may be cruel and offensive to some people, but believe me, it's true.

I've seen Jones play between 15-20 games now over the past 3 years (live, on TV and online) and I can say without a doubt that he is NHL ready.

Does he need to get bigger and stronger? Absolutely. But with a frame that's 6'4+ and still growing, there is immense potential in regards to how big and strong he could get.

Does he need to learn to take contact? Absolutely. But, he's so smart with the puck and with his stick/body positioning, that he simply hardly ever gets hit. There will definitely be an adjustment period for this part of his game, but with such a big frame, he should be able to take some punishment better than a player who is only 5'11 or even 6'2.
Yeah, but how many times professional hockey scouts FAIL to identify who the best prospects are?! Especially Dmen?

So, i think it is pretty reasonable for someone to be a little afraid with the draft history of guys that were as hyped as Seth Jones is right now.

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04-05-2013, 11:09 AM
  #282
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Originally Posted by S E P H View Post
I love you guys. I understand people like PAZ who have watched him play a couple times and make a opinion, but the rest of you judging the kid based on defensemen draft history, picking out Winterhawk fans' posts, and even D2M using one little 30 second clip of him beating by a GOOD prospect without watching him play on a regular bases in Portland is just laughable.
Someone could argue that the recent record of hits/misses with Dmen drafted 1st overall is laughable as well.

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04-05-2013, 11:10 AM
  #283
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Originally Posted by iceberg View Post
Someone could argue that the recent record of hits/misses with Dmen drafted 1st overall is laughable as well.
Using it to judge a player you haven't seen is more laughable.

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04-05-2013, 11:14 AM
  #284
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Originally Posted by S E P H View Post
I love you guys. I understand people like PAZ who have watched him play a couple times and make a opinion, but the rest of you judging the kid based on defensemen draft history, picking out Winterhawk fans' posts, and even D2M using one little 30 second clip of him beating by a GOOD prospect without watching him play on a regular bases in Portland is just laughable.
How do you think it's laughable? In my case I'm trying to make an informed decision without considering the hype. I have yet to see a compelling argument why Seth Jones should be a safe draft pick at Number One. So, if you're willing to do that, please enlighten me.

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04-05-2013, 11:25 AM
  #285
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Originally Posted by S E P H View Post
Using it to judge a player you haven't seen is more laughable.
Judging Jones without seeing him play is laughable, i agree.

But i don't think that is what is happening here. For those that don't have the chance to see him play, it is reasonable to question whether he is in fact the best pick at #1.

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04-05-2013, 11:28 AM
  #286
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Originally Posted by Renegade Stylings View Post
It's funny, in watching this video, the thing that actually stood out most to me was the defensive sequence by Seth Jones at 2:00. Shows off some great examples of his reach, quick feet, smarts and his ability to not overthink the play.

In the 11 second clip he:

1. Uses his skating to cut down the angle on the onrushing player.

2. Reads the play to aid his winger, jump up in his coverage along the wall to cut off the cycle.

3. Lay the body to separate a player from the puck along the boards.

4. Uses his reach to poke the puck away from the other forward in on the cycle.


You don't usually see plays like that from 17 year old players on the biggest stage that junior hockey has to offer.
At 02:50 you also see Seth Jones get beat badly by Nichuskin. Granted it was not his fault that his teammates could not slow him down through the neutral zone and that Seth had to account a player on the opposite wing coming at him. Even then, Seth still had a chance to poke the rebound away. I'm not sure if he one the rebound was there after getting spun around by Nichuskin. If anything, a little more strength and toughness would have done him some good where he was left to dry. But, did he misjudge the speed at which Nichuskin was coming at him with?

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04-05-2013, 11:32 AM
  #287
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Originally Posted by S E P H View Post
Using it to judge a player you haven't seen is more laughable.
I feel like you're misunderstanding the point of using previous draft comparables. It's not to say, oh EJ didn't pan out so Jones won't either. The point is that other highly drafted dmen similarly looked to be far ahead of their peers as Jones does now - scouting has obviously improved a lot, but that doesn't change the fact that what you see with a defenseman of this age doesn't necessarily tell you a ton about what you get 5 years down the road.

The track record is pretty clear, scouting is much more likely to identify the best forward in the draft with the first forward picked than they are to identify the best defender.

People told me the same thing back in 2009, Hedman's hype was incredible and people talked about how he was a can't miss D prospect. And today, he's a good player, but there's probably 5 guys in that draft that I'd take before him (including Tavares). Taking the 6-10th best player in a draft with a top 2 pick has to be viewed as a failure IMO.

Or look at 2007; Mcdonagh, Shattenkirk and Subban are all players I would take before Alzner (not to mention Hickey).

Even 2008 where picking dmen high was extremely successful, it's very arguable how to rank the dmen taken in that draft today. I probably would personally put them
1) Karlsson (taken 15th)
2) Pietrangelo (taken 4th)
3) Doughty (taken 2nd)
4) Bogosian (taken 3rd)
5) MDZ (taken 20th)
6) Tyler Myers (Taken 12th) - if he can bounce back
7) Jake Gardiner (Taken 17th)
8) Luke Schenn (Taken 5th)
9) Luca Sbisa (taken 19th?)

That's not even taking into account the fact that Hamonic, Josi, Schultz, Voynov, and Wiercioch were taken in the 2nd round that year.


Now the point of looking at these comparisons is not to say Jones is another EJ or another Hickey because he could just as easily round out into another Pietrangelo. The idea is that scouting dmen is still a very imperfect science and IMO if there are a forward and dmen on par before their draft I would rather take the forward.

You can obviously make similar comparisons with forwards but the fact of the matter is that you've got a lot better % of grabbing an impact forward in the first 3 forwards picked than the first 3 defensemen (I compiled a list for the past 10 years in one of the previous iterations of this thread).

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04-05-2013, 11:33 AM
  #288
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Originally Posted by iceberg View Post
Someone could argue that the recent record of hits/misses with Dmen drafted 1st overall is laughable as well.
Using the past to look into the future is not a good way to go about things, in my opinion.

Defenceman that went 1st overall and failed should have NO influence on what teams do with the 1st pick. NHL scouts and teams would echo my comments, based on my conversations with NHL scouts over the years.

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04-05-2013, 11:34 AM
  #289
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Originally Posted by Super Joe Sakic View Post
How do you think it's laughable? In my case I'm trying to make an informed decision without considering the hype. I have yet to see a compelling argument why Seth Jones should be a safe draft pick at Number One. So, if you're willing to do that, please enlighten me.
I've had dozens of posts that would enlighten you both in this thread and in the Seth Jones thread on the prospects board. Read away. For me, he's head and shoulders above the rest of the class at this point.

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04-05-2013, 11:37 AM
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Originally Posted by Super Joe Sakic View Post
At 02:50 you also see Seth Jones get beat badly by Nichuskin. Granted it was not his fault that his teammates could not slow him down through the neutral zone and that Seth had to account a player on the opposite wing coming at him. Even then, Seth still had a chance to poke the rebound away. I'm not sure if he one the rebound was there after getting spun around by Nichuskin. If anything, a little more strength and toughness would have done him some good where he was left to dry. But, did he misjudge the speed at which Nichuskin was coming at him with?
I've never claimed that Jones makes the perfect play 100% of the time. Of course there are flaws with any player, and I've never ever claimed Jones was flawless.

I watched Ryan Suter get walked around 2 nights ago, made to look extremely foolish. Plays like that happen to the best of them.

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04-05-2013, 11:39 AM
  #291
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For the record, while I have often questioned the merits of picking a dman over a similarly talented forward with a high pick, I still have Jones at the top of my list for this year.

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04-05-2013, 11:43 AM
  #292
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Here is an actual scouting report I filed on Seth Jones from this past September. Interesting to note that I said I didn't see him surpassing MacKinnon 'at this time'. Well, that changed once I saw him play a few more times during the year, including live.

Quote:
Tri-City vs. Portland
September 23rd, 2012


Seth Jones RD - 6-4 206 lbs Portland Winterhawks Oct. 3rd, 1994 DOB

This was my first viewing of the season of Seth and he was very solid. Played a well rounded game, made several excellent one-on-one plays defensively, laid the body when necessary, had a few great stretch passes, skated the puck well a few times and showed off his huge slapshot. I've had him rated 2nd to MacKinnon for over a year now and I don't see that changing right now, but it's pretty clear to me at this stage that Jones is a force to be reckoned with as a prospect.

Still noticed some growing/transition pains in the viewing that could have just been him not being terribly comfortable in the WHL game quite yet. Played both the PP and the PK during the game and was paired with Layne Viveiros on what you could call the Winterhawks 3rd D pairing. With that being said, the Hawks have shown a willingness to often rotate pairings. Jones was likely up around 20 minutes played on this night.

Skating Ability: 7.5

For his size, Jones is an excellent skater. Has a long, smooth and powerful stride. Is very mobile and has great reflexes and shows off great agility when needing to go side to side or needing to quickly transition from skating forwards to backwards. I would still expect him to grow, so this will need to be an area he continues to work hard at to improve through this season and beyond.

Puck Skills: 7
At this stage, this would probably be the area that I would want him to focus on the most. He handles the puck fine, but in order for him to eventually develop into a two-way threat as a defenceman, he will need to improve his puck handling ability. It definitely doesn't hinder him right now, but it's always an area to work on for him. He made a few great plays with the puck in the game, including on the powerplay where he was forced to tip-toe the blueline a couple of times and keep the puck away from a defender.

Passing Ability: 7.5
Moves the puck well. Made several different kinds of passes in this viewing, from short one-touch passes on the breakout to one very long and accurate stretch pass in the 3rd period. Was definitely impressed with his ability to read the play, react and put the puck on a teammates stick. This area of his game is a big reason why I think he will eventually be a big time point scorer, he's just very smooth when passing.

Finishing Ability: 7.5
I am rating this as a 7.5 basically for one reason, he has a killer shot. It's extremely hard and he has the ability to get it on net, despite traffic. I think he may have had one shot blocked all game, and he actually fired at least a half-dozen shots on the cage in this viewing. I'm definitely impressed with this area of his game and it's an area he has improved on since the last time I saw him play.

Physical Play: 7.5
He's an imposing player and definitely isn't afraid to hit and play the body. Had several good hits during the game, but didn't always looked like a 'killer' in situations where he could have been. Would like to see him be more aggressive in this part of his game, just because I think it's a dynamic element that not many players have at his age.

Intangibles: 7.5
For a kid who started the game fairly late, he thinks the game well. You can almost tell he has athletic bloodlines just by the way he plays because he's very quick in his decision making and rarely made a mistake. I noticed two mistakes he made during this entire viewing and both were related to him just being a bit cautious in his defensive-zone coverage of an opposing player. Overall he has a total package with his intangibles and I don't think you can question his hockey sense at this time.

Defensive Play: 7.5
Stood out as a solid defensive player in the viewing. Was tested on several occasions during one-on-one plays and passed with flying colors, standing up the defender and calmly poking the puck away. Is definitely a treat to watch at both ends of the ice, but his defensive play is definitely rounding into form. Played a regular shift on the PK.

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04-05-2013, 11:43 AM
  #293
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I'll be honest. I wanted Hedman over Duchene. That would've been stupid. I wanted Larsson over Landeskog. That would've been stupid. I want Jones over Mac/Drouin. I hope that doesn't end up being stupid.

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04-05-2013, 11:44 AM
  #294
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Originally Posted by Renegade Stylings View Post
I've never claimed that Jones makes the perfect play 100% of the time. Of course there are flaws with any player, and I've never ever claimed Jones was flawless.

I watched Ryan Suter get walked around 2 nights ago, made to look extremely foolish. Plays like that happen to the best of them.
I'm not discrediting your account of Seth Jones in any way. I found it very helpful and valuable since I have a harder time appreciating simple defensive plays. However, like I was saying, did Seth Jones simply misjudge Nichuskin's speed? Was that an anomaly for him? Does he do this more frequently than we realize?

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04-05-2013, 11:45 AM
  #295
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Originally Posted by TwoPadStack View Post
I'll be honest. I wanted Hedman over Duchene. That would've been stupid. I wanted Larsson over Landeskog. That would've been stupid. I want Jones over Mac/Drouin. I hope that doesn't end up being stupid.
Not sure you can call either of your previous wants "stupid" right now. All players involved are still very young and this franchise is still looking for capable players to fill holes on the blueline.

Plus, I think the Devils haven't handled Larsson's development very well.

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04-05-2013, 11:47 AM
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Originally Posted by Super Joe Sakic View Post
I'm not discrediting your account of Seth Jones in any way. I found it very helpful and valuable since I have a harder time appreciating simple defensive plays. However, like I was saying, did Seth Jones simply misjudge Nichuskin's speed? Was that an anomaly for him? Does he do this more frequently than we realize?
Definitely an anomaly for him. He reads the play very well and uses his stick and body positioning at a very high level, the vast majority of the time. You can see from that highlight video that Nichushkin caught several great D off guard many times, with Jones being no exception.

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04-05-2013, 11:50 AM
  #297
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Originally Posted by TwoPadStack View Post
I'll be honest. I wanted Hedman over Duchene. That would've been stupid. I wanted Larsson over Landeskog. That would've been stupid. I want Jones over Mac/Drouin. I hope that doesn't end up being stupid.
On a similar note, Fowler/Gudbranson over Hall/Seguin would have been stupid. EJ over Toews/Backstrom/Staal/Kessel was stupid. JJ over Bobby Ryan would have been stupid.

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04-05-2013, 11:52 AM
  #298
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On a similar note, Fowler/Gudbranson over Hall/Seguin would have been stupid. EJ over Toews/Backstrom/Staal/Kessel was stupid. JJ over Bobby Ryan would have been stupid.
It's quite easy to play "Revisionist History" now, but back in 2006, EJ was the clear cut #1 choice, considered by many.

It also turns out that the 2006 draft class produced some REALLY good NHLers after EJ as well.

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04-05-2013, 11:55 AM
  #299
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Originally Posted by TwoPadStack View Post
I'll be honest. I wanted Hedman over Duchene. That would've been stupid. I wanted Larsson over Landeskog. That would've been stupid. I want Jones over Mac/Drouin. I hope that doesn't end up being stupid.
What you forgot to factor in is the "Avs Fan" factor

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04-05-2013, 11:56 AM
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Originally Posted by RockLobster View Post
It's quite easy to play "Revisionist History" now, but back in 2006, EJ was the clear cut #1 choice, considered by many.

It also turns out that the 2006 draft class produced some REALLY good NHLers after EJ as well.
I'm not playing revisionist history. Everyone one of the dmen that we mentioned in the last few posts was very highly touted. The point is that telling us we should watch him play more (I've only seen Jones at WJC and a few other games) because he's so clearly the best choice is unnecessarily condescending. History shows its completely reasonable to have some doubts about taking dmen high considering that their development is a lot less predictable.

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