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What should Chevy do at the deadline? V2.0 New and improved! Pls read OP

View Poll Results: What should he do?
Keep Hainsey and re-sign 40 37.74%
Keep Hainsey and let him walk 8 7.55%
Sell Hainsey for draft picks/prospects 46 43.40%
Sell Hainsey for roster players 26 24.53%
Keep Antropov and re-sign 29 27.36%
Keep Antropov and let him walk 14 13.21%
Sell Antropov for draft picks/prospects 47 44.34%
Sell Antropov for roster players 14 13.21%
Buy players with our draft picks/prospects 32 30.19%
Don't buy players with our draft picks/prospects 42 39.62%
Roster player trade not including Antropov/Hainsey 31 29.25%
Don't do a roster player trade 19 17.92%
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 106. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
04-01-2013, 12:12 PM
  #151
Bob E
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Huffer View Post
This is going to be an interesting trade deadline for us for sure. It will even be interesting in regards to any deals we don't make. (If we hang on to all of our UFA's).

I think our recent stretch of games has made things more challenging for Cheveldayoff. If we would have done better going back to the Washington home games, it would most likely look like the division was locked up, and he might have been more inclined to add a few pieces to help in the playoffs. Now with the playoffs being anything but a certainty, I'm not sure what Chevy's mindset will be.

In regards to Hainsey, I don't know if there is an absolute correct answer. I can definitely see pro's and con's to all courses of action. I think that is where the discussion comes from, in that there isn't A or B, but varying conditions, and "If's" on both sides of the argument.

For me, I don't know if I have 1 preferred outcome, but more of a preferred order of outcomes, which all depend on certain conditions. In order:

1) Resign Hainsey before the TD - The condition here is that we would have to get him on an acceptable contract. I don't see a replacement for Hainsey either in the org, or in FA. Considering we are two days to the TD, I'm not sure how feasible this option is. Of course all the Jets can really do here is make their best offer. It's up to Hainsey if he wants to re-sign or test UFA. I wouldn't blame the guy if he tested UFA to get one last big contract.

2) Trade Hainsey at the deadline - The condition here is that the return has to be substantial. It has to be enough to not allow Chevy to refuse, and enough to offset the loss of Hainsey's contributions to the rest of this season and helping this team make the playoffs.

3) Keep Hainsey at the deadline - IF the return on dealing Hainsey at the deadline isn't substantial, it's probably more beneficial to have him onboard to try and make the playoffs and get the team that experience. Because that has value as well.

The key point between #2 and #3 is the potential return in a trade. I'm looking at it like a scale with the weights on either side. On one side is the value in the playoffs and Hainsey's value in making that happen, and on the other side is the return in a trade. It's highly subjective, and I don't even know what I would consider enough (1st?), but a trade return has to be enough to tip the scale that way for me.

4) Resign Hainsey before UFA - If the Jets go with #3, I hope they try to resign him before he goes to UFA. Of course the condition is that it has to be a good deal, but like #1, I'm not sure where his replacement comes from.
As usual, I agree 100%, Huffer.

If the return isn't to chevy's likely, then keep the player and try to re-sign him. If it doesn't work out in the end, sobeit.

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04-01-2013, 12:15 PM
  #152
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From what I hear Buffalo isn't too worried about Staffords contract. The problem is if they want to unload it. Not many buyers at this point in the game.

I hope we get a bunch of guys signed to cheap long contracts, because we can really take advantage of the cap going up.

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04-01-2013, 12:20 PM
  #153
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Also, I don't think the rumblings that Buff is 'in play' or Jets will move him to Philly cause they really want him, will mean anything at this TD.

To me, dealing him now makes NO sense.

Now, IF the Jets miss the playoffs and IF they win the lottery and pick first (Jones) and IF the Flyers are prepared to overpay a bit, then a trade to philly at the draft for their 1st, a top 6 forward and top prospect, I'd be ok with.

Lots of IF's in that scenario. .

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04-01-2013, 12:24 PM
  #154
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Looks like we have more competition:

Quote:
Darren Dreger ‏@DarrenDreger 2m

CBJ will be a buyer. Columbus would be willing to part with 1 of their 3 first rnd draft picks for a scoring forward. #tradecentre

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04-01-2013, 12:28 PM
  #155
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Nice post Huff

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04-01-2013, 12:32 PM
  #156
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The odd thing is CBJ may be more willing to move THEIR pick, rather than the pick they received from NYRs. Who would have thought that at the start of the season.

As a seller, more reason to hold out for a 1st. Hainsey played there, maybe they want him back, for a 1st. .

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04-01-2013, 12:36 PM
  #157
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob E View Post
The odd thing is CBJ may be more willing to move THEIR pick, rather than the pick they received from NYRs. Who would have thought that at the start of the season.

As a seller, more reason to hold out for a 1st. Hainsey played there, maybe they want him back, for a 1st. .
If they move a first almost guaranteed it will be LA's first.

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04-01-2013, 12:40 PM
  #158
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Basically, I think we're in a position now where I'd like to see us "rent our own UFAs". If we would have put an iron grip on 3rd, I'd want to move 2nds for a 2nd line RW. If we woulda crapped the bed I'd want to move Antro, Hainsey... But we're a bubble team. Rent our own guys. If we can resign them, great. If not, onwards and upwards to draft day deals.

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04-01-2013, 12:41 PM
  #159
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I agree with you there, but I think all but absolutely elite players should at least stay another year in juniors. The problem is are they being developed properly in juniors? If they aren't there's no point.
I guess the difference is in whether players like Kane and Bogo had anything to learn at junior. I'm with those that say "nope". in the AHL? Maybe, but at junior, definitely not. Both had athleticism that would have let them manhandle the league, and i don't' think any "developing" would have come of it. Ideally, a year in the A right out of junior, but obviously that's not a possibility.

Quote:
Originally Posted by allan5oh View Post
That's because they've had what, four first round picks in the past 10 years? And even those are quite low. Yet their prospect pool is among the best in the league.

Even without their 1st round picks, they usually get 2-3 NHLers per draft. That's unbelievably good. They seem to do very well trading these players for pieces they need.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...gs_draft_picks


Scouting is also so much better compared to when Datsyuk and Holmstrom were drafted. It's incredibly rare for a superstar to go past the 2nd round.
going ot:

so rare that they've never done it again, nor prior. that's my point. People act as if Detroits drafting a datsyuk or holmstrom every other year, when in reality they haven't had a prospect that's turned into a player actually worth writing home about since.

Also, what did you use to determine an "nhl player" off of that table? you look from 1994-2008 and filter by 90+ games (meaning they've likely played at least the better part of 2 seasons) and you get 21 players. over 14 drafts. My math ain't great but that doesn't sound like 2-3 players per draft.


All of this is besides the point. The point is even the "truly elite" statements isn't correct. Because some players are ready, even if they aren't ever going to become more. it is possible to have a high floor and a low ceiling. Junior isn't an effective training ground for elite, or even above average players, depending on what skills/abilities are above average.

I wouldn't call kane or bogo truly elite, but i would say that leaving them in junior wouldn't have been an improvement over being in the NHL.

my point being, some truly elite players need to stay in junior. Some average players are developed enough to come up and be average at 18 - even if being above average was never in the cards. The elite statement makes it seem like there's a black and white way to know that, and in reality, there isn't.

Sometimes you just have to pick your poison (thanks to the CHL/NHL agreement)

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04-01-2013, 12:59 PM
  #160
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Originally Posted by Holden Caulfield View Post
If they move a first almost guaranteed it will be LA's first.
For sure.

Couldn't resist a dig at the NYR and CBJ perhaps considering THEIR pick was less valuable than NYR's pick.

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04-01-2013, 01:08 PM
  #161
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Originally Posted by Grind View Post
I guess the difference is in whether players like Kane and Bogo had anything to learn at junior. I'm with those that say "nope". in the AHL? Maybe, but at junior, definitely not. Both had athleticism that would have let them manhandle the league, and i don't' think any "developing" would have come of it. Ideally, a year in the A right out of junior, but obviously that's not a possibility.
Not sure if they did, but I still could place a safe bet that our team would be better if they did. That's just the way I feel.

Quote:
so rare that they've never done it again, nor prior. that's my point. People act as if Detroits drafting a datsyuk or holmstrom every other year, when in reality they haven't had a prospect that's turned into a player actually worth writing home about since.
What about Franzen, his numbers are comparable to Holmstrom. He was picked at the end of the 3rd round. In fact his PPG is higher than Holmstrom.

Quote:
Also, what did you use to determine an "nhl player" off of that table? you look from 1994-2008 and filter by 90+ games (meaning they've likely played at least the better part of 2 seasons) and you get 21 players. over 14 drafts. My math ain't great but that doesn't sound like 2-3 players per draft.
Two players per draft is considered a home run. I was looking at the newer drafts(02 to 08). Their draft record considering how few firsts they had is very impressive.


Quote:
All of this is besides the point. The point is even the "truly elite" statements isn't correct. Because some players are ready, even if they aren't ever going to become more. it is possible to have a high floor and a low ceiling. Junior isn't an effective training ground for elite, or even above average players, depending on what skills/abilities are above average.
It completely depends on the player, that I agree with you. It also depends heavily on the junior coach as well. Does he allow bad habits? Is he good for the development of the player? Take a look at our current situation with Trouba and Berenson. A lot of people dislike him as a teacher of d-men. It's entirely possible if he stays in Michigian it could be a bad thing.

Quote:
Sometimes you just have to pick your poison (thanks to the CHL/NHL agreement)
That I agree with. I wish they would knock a year off the AHL agreement.

What do you think about Scheifele in juniors? I say he should start next year in the AHL. He didn't seem ready this year at all.

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04-01-2013, 01:12 PM
  #162
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Also consider the CBA and ELCs. Even if the players development hits a wall, sometimes it's better to keep them down for cap reasons. That certainly isn't a good reason to keep him down, but it's a factor.

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04-01-2013, 01:25 PM
  #163
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IMO any player who is good enough to play in the NHL should play in the NHL unless there are extreme exceptions against their case.

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04-01-2013, 01:26 PM
  #164
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Originally Posted by Bob E View Post
Also, I don't think the rumblings that Buff is 'in play' or Jets will move him to Philly cause they really want him, will mean anything at this TD.

To me, dealing him now makes NO sense.

Now, IF the Jets miss the playoffs and IF they win the lottery and pick first (Jones) and IF the Flyers are prepared to overpay a bit, then a trade to philly at the draft for their 1st, a top 6 forward and top prospect, I'd be ok with.

Lots of IF's in that scenario. .
Are you referring to the "old" rumblings of a few weeks ago Bob E, or are there "new" rumblings?

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04-01-2013, 01:31 PM
  #165
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2002:

Traded their 1st(turned into Jim Slater), Kozlov, and a conditional 3rd (not exercised) for some bum named Hasek.

Then proceeded to draft Hudler, Fleischmann, Filppula, Meech, and Jonathan Ericsson without their 1st.

They won the cup too. They hit a home run on every single level possible that year.

They also seem to have a tendency to trade their 1st for later picks that seem to turn into NHL players.

Just because they don't get a star every 3 years doesn't mean their drafting sucks. It's hard to draft stars when you're a perennial playoff team. They've done well with the picks they have.

Now contrast that to the Thrashers:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...rs_draft_picks

2005 was the last year anyone out of the top 12 has had any sort of meaningful NHL career (Pavelec in the 2nd). It's been a wasteland of bad picks. Hopefully Redmond, Kulda, and Postma turn that around.

Any time you get two NHLers out of any draft it's a home run. Do it without a 1st and it's a grand slam.

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04-01-2013, 01:40 PM
  #166
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Are you referring to the "old" rumblings of a few weeks ago Bob E, or are there "new" rumblings?
New.

His inconsistent play of late (seems to be the hot topic of the weekend, no?) may have fueled it, but imo, it makes NO sense to move him at the moment.
I'll still say, I'd be shocked if Buff plays out his current contract in Winnipeg.

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04-01-2013, 02:02 PM
  #167
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New.

His inconsistent play of late (seems to be the hot topic of the weekend, no?) may have fueled it, but imo, it makes NO sense to move him at the moment.
I'll still say, I'd be shocked if Buff plays out his current contract in Winnipeg.
Thanks. Without getting this thread entirely off the rails I'm not as adamant in keeping Buff as I once was. Or, I've softened my opinion on how "core" he really is.

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04-01-2013, 02:09 PM
  #168
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Quote:
Originally Posted by allan5oh View Post
2002:

Traded their 1st(turned into Jim Slater), Kozlov, and a conditional 3rd (not exercised) for some bum named Hasek.

Then proceeded to draft Hudler, Fleischmann, Filppula, Meech, and Jonathan Ericsson without their 1st.

They won the cup too. They hit a home run on every single level possible that year.

They also seem to have a tendency to trade their 1st for later picks that seem to turn into NHL players.

Just because they don't get a star every 3 years doesn't mean their drafting sucks. It's hard to draft stars when you're a perennial playoff team. They've done well with the picks they have.

Now contrast that to the Thrashers:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...rs_draft_picks

2005 was the last year anyone out of the top 12 has had any sort of meaningful NHL career (Pavelec in the 2nd). It's been a wasteland of bad picks. Hopefully Redmond, Kulda, and Postma turn that around.

Any time you get two NHLers out of any draft it's a home run. Do it without a 1st and it's a grand slam.
maybe having a year like that does it for you, but frankly, to me i put more stock in what they do over a span then in one year. one good year doesn't matter if they don't develop anyone else for another three years, you might as well have just had 3 average years.

I don't refute that detroits system has been, good. They've generally done slightly above average, with worse circumstances.

That beign said, since franzen, they haven't had anyone really notable.


i've discussed it with a large number of fans as well and alot of them seem to agree that the wells starting to run dry.

Also, it doesn't really go against the point- they managed to turn these depth picks ("project players") into NHLers. That's fine, and i expect our guys like kosmo, lowry, olsen, yuen, etc to get at least 1 (likely 2) seasons in the ahl if they ever become something. That doesn't mean schiefele/trouba/et al will be forced to do the same just for the sake of it (and i get your following me on that).

contract cap reasons should have absolutely zero effect on whether you bring a player that you've developed in or not. Zero. It sends the wrong message to your players.

As for schiefele? Not sure what i think right now, i'd like to see him again, and i think we would have got a better opportunity in camp. I think given a full training camp and preseason, he could have stuck this year.

I will be surprised (that doesn mean "against") if he doesn't manage to stay in the show next year - but the decision needs to be based off his evaluation in training camp/preseason in the fall and nothing else.

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04-01-2013, 02:22 PM
  #169
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I don't refute that detroits system has been, good. They've generally done slightly above average, with worse circumstances.
Now take a look at the size of our scouting staff:

http://jets.nhl.com/club/page.htm?id=69834

21 scouts, I think 2nd only to Toronto. Also consider Cheveldayoff seems to love scouting, that brings it up to 22. I'm not saying we're a great scouting team - that remains to be seen - but all signs point to TNSE putting a lot of value into scouting. 15 Amateur scouts is nothing too shabby.

Quote:
That beign said, since franzen, they haven't had anyone really notable.
That also remains to be seen. Also what have they done with the picks they traded? If you have a million dollars, you invest half in one investment and half in another, does it not make sense to view them as a whole and not just focus on one? Draft picks are like cash.

Quote:
i've discussed it with a large number of fans as well and alot of them seem to agree that the wells starting to run dry.
It is tough to stay in the playoffs for 22+ some odd years. Especially under the current CBA.

Quote:
Also, it doesn't really go against the point- they managed to turn these depth picks ("project players") into NHLers. That's fine, and i expect our guys like kosmo, lowry, olsen, yuen, etc to get at least 1 (likely 2) seasons in the ahl if they ever become something. That doesn't mean schiefele/trouba/et al will be forced to do the same just for the sake of it (and i get your following me on that).
I am following you on that. It's about looking what is better for the player and team long term. Chevy has been very patient and tactful with all his choices.

Quote:
contract cap reasons should have absolutely zero effect on whether you bring a player that you've developed in or not. Zero. It sends the wrong message to your players.
You'd be mistaken to think that this has no effect. Do the Detroit or Nashville players get the wrong message? They don't get any message like this, because it is never publicly stated. It's about building a proper hierarchy and earning your right to stay. Do 1st rounders get to play in the big club in the fall simply because they're 1st rounders? That's the worst kind of message to send to your players in the system.

Quote:
As for schiefele? Not sure what i think right now, i'd like to see him again, and i think we would have got a better opportunity in camp. I think given a full training camp and preseason, he could have stuck this year.

I will be surprised (that doesn mean "against") if he doesn't manage to stay in the show next year - but the decision needs to be based off his evaluation in training camp/preseason in the fall and nothing else.
That's another factor that gets overlooked. We haven't had a real training camp yet. I think this fall we will finally have an idea of what prospects Chevy expects to stick around.

I've read so many quotes of past stars suck as Hawerhcuk stating they were nowhere near ready to play in the NHL. They were pushed around, targeted, and didn't know how to play against top lines. There's a very specific quote somewhere about Hawerchuk teaching Scheifele these things that took him a long time to learn in the NHL.

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04-01-2013, 02:36 PM
  #170
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Thanks. Without getting this thread entirely off the rails I'm not as adamant in keeping Buff as I once was. Or, I've softened my opinion on how "core" he really is.
The Jets have high hopes for Trouba, but he's still a very young player. He's likely at least a couple of years away from being a legit top 4 dman. But he has the potential of being a game-changing top pairing dman, after some experience and further development.

Bogo is a guy that they should be able to get under contract on a long-term deal for under $5 mill/season.

Buff may be more 'stop-gap' than 'core', but he is needed, imo, for a while longer.

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04-01-2013, 02:38 PM
  #171
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Originally Posted by allan5oh View Post
Now take a look at the size of our scouting staff:

You'd be mistaken to think that this has no effect. Do the Detroit or Nashville players get the wrong message? They don't get any message like this, because it is never publicly stated. It's about building a proper hierarchy and earning your right to stay. Do 1st rounders get to play in the big club in the fall simply because they're 1st rounders? That's the worst kind of message to send to your players in the system.

.
I think we generally agree but it might be the issue of how that heirarhies established.

Building a proper hierarchy- to me, the only hierarchy that matters is who gives you the best chance to win. Everything else is ********. Anything else is detrimental because it means your considering something other then what gives you the best chance to win (which is the only point of the game). If your a first round pick, a 28 yearold in his prime, or a 33 yearold vet, and your all competing for the same spot in the top 6 or top 9, then it goes to who does it better. That's the only hierarchy that should matter.

Do first rounders play in the club just because... No. i don't know why your suggesting I believe that, I've already repeatedly said no, they have to earn it. It's just that earning it isn't "paying dues" in the ahl or some other ********, earning it is being the best man for the job at the end of training camp/preseason- end of story.

anything else goes against the point of the game, and that's to win- and THAT's the worst message you can send, that politics and policies are more important then winning.

We're starting to go in circles here and we're completely off topic.

In short: Time spent in leagues/paying dues is irrelevent. You should be earning your spot in training camp. You go with who gives you the best opportunity to win. the only heirarchy that matters, is who's the better player for the job.

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04-01-2013, 02:45 PM
  #172
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I think we agree about 95% here. A little off topic, but it's good conversation. I wasn't putting words into your mouth.

I think we're very close on the idea of when prospects should graduate. We both agree the Atlanta method was flawed but not every prospect needs a year in the AHL.

Also I may slightly disagree with you talking about whoever is best in camp. It's about pieces fitting in properly. Was Scheifele better than guys like Thorburn? Absolutely. Would we be in better shape if he stayed? Probably. But long term development is key here, and if he gets junior time with some playoffs and a proper camp before graduating, we may be surprised how good he is next year.

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04-01-2013, 02:47 PM
  #173
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Just for completeness, we shouldn't forget about the option of trading Hainsey and/or Antro out as a "rental", and then re-signing them as an UFA in the summer.

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04-01-2013, 02:51 PM
  #174
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That's generally frowned upon. It's hard to prove collusion didn't exist.

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04-01-2013, 02:58 PM
  #175
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Originally Posted by allan5oh View Post
I think we agree about 95% here. A little off topic, but it's good conversation. I wasn't putting words into your mouth.

I think we're very close on the idea of when prospects should graduate. We both agree the Atlanta method was flawed but not every prospect needs a year in the AHL.

Also I may slightly disagree with you talking about whoever is best in camp. It's about pieces fitting in properly. Was Scheifele better than guys like Thorburn? Absolutely. Would we be in better shape if he stayed? Probably. But long term development is key here, and if he gets junior time with some playoffs and a proper camp before graduating, we may be surprised how good he is next year.
true true, it becomes balancing act at some point. I also tried to stay with "better for the role/position" to avoid keeping a guy like schiefele (supposed tobe scorer/top6) up to play in thorburns spot.

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