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2013 New Jersey Devils (Team News, Player Discussion - Part X)

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04-07-2013, 07:55 AM
  #526
Saugus
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Originally Posted by DatBoyJPP View Post
We do know that. The pick we forfeit will be higher in the draft
Which doesn't always mean that the player selected with the higher pick will be better.

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04-07-2013, 08:07 AM
  #527
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Nathan Horton is going to be the best forward on the free agent list and it'll cost a ton to get him.

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04-07-2013, 08:27 AM
  #528
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Originally Posted by Saugus View Post
Which doesn't always mean that the player selected with the higher pick will be better.
That's not what I'm saying. All I'm saying is he giving up a better asset. Use your Ivy League education

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04-07-2013, 08:29 AM
  #529
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Originally Posted by MadDevil View Post
No, we don't know that the pick will be higher than 29th. We're assuming it will be. Unless you have a crystal ball you're not telling us about.
Odds are ridiculously high it will be and it's a move anyone with common sense plans for. Quit being homers

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04-07-2013, 09:29 AM
  #530
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Originally Posted by njdevil26 View Post
Nathan Horton is going to be the best forward on the free agent list and it'll cost a ton to get him.
Unless he resigns. Seems like that's the route these UFAs-to-be are taking this year.

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04-07-2013, 09:36 AM
  #531
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Could you imagine a offseason where clarkson is the best ufa.

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04-07-2013, 09:42 AM
  #532
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Originally Posted by njdevilsftw View Post
Could you imagine a offseason where clarkson is the best ufa.
He's not, Elias is. At the rate it's going Elias probably gets more on a three-year deal than Clarkson gets on a five-year deal.

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04-07-2013, 09:43 AM
  #533
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He's not, Elias is. At the rate it's going Elias probably gets more on a three-year deal than Clarkson gets on a five-year deal.
Someone will overpay Clarkson.

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04-07-2013, 10:02 AM
  #534
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It is very simple logic that for some reason people don't understand. A 29th pick in 2012 draft is worth a heck of alot more than the ~15 pick in 2014. Even if we won the cup Lou was still going to keep the 30th pick and wait until that last possible year to forfeit the first round pick.

I hope we don't overpay for Clarkson. This team needs a #1 defenseman and a #1 line winger. I am hoping we make a trade for Yandle in the offseason if available.

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04-07-2013, 10:10 AM
  #535
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tycobb View Post
It is very simple logic that for some reason people don't understand. A 29th pick in 2012 draft is worth a heck of alot more than the ~15 pick in 2014. Even if we won the cup Lou was still going to keep the 30th pick and wait until that last possible year to forfeit the first round pick.

I hope we don't overpay for Clarkson. This team needs a #1 defenseman and a #1 line winger. I am hoping we make a trade for Yandle in the offseason if available.
It would also be stupid to overpay for a guy like Horton in the offseason because the market is absolutely horrible for forwards. The Devils need to find a consistent 30 goal scorer (obviously more if possible), not a low 20's guy like Horton. We have enough of those in Zubrus, Elias, Clarkson, Zajac, etc.

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04-07-2013, 10:13 AM
  #536
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tycobb View Post
It is very simple logic that for some reason people don't understand. A 29th pick in 2012 draft is worth a heck of alot more than the ~15 pick in 2014. Even if we won the cup Lou was still going to keep the 30th pick and wait until that last possible year to forfeit the first round pick.

I hope we don't overpay for Clarkson. This team needs a #1 defenseman and a #1 line winger. I am hoping we make a trade for Yandle in the offseason if available.
It's worth more in the short term but not in the long run.

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04-07-2013, 10:21 AM
  #537
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Originally Posted by Unknown Caller View Post
It would also be stupid to overpay for a guy like Horton in the offseason because the market is absolutely horrible for forwards. The Devils need to find a consistent 30 goal scorer (obviously more if possible), not a low 20's guy like Horton. We have enough of those in Zubrus, Elias, Clarkson, Zajac, etc.
I won't overpay for Horton. He has concussion history and IMO not worth the risk, but overpaying for a FA is better than making a bad trade.

We are the worse offensive 5on5 team in the league with 1.8 goals for every 60 minutes played and only ranked 27th in 5on5 team shots for per 60 minutes.

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04-07-2013, 10:21 AM
  #538
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Originally Posted by Devils Dominion View Post
It's worth more in the short term but not in the long run.
This. Please look at player selections for each draft slot. Whether you pick in the 8-10 range or the 20-24 range, there's almost no difference in the odds of that player panning out.

Example:

At 9th overall you get Logan Couture, James Sheppard, Josh Bailey, Ladislav Smid.
At 10th overall you get Keaton Ellerby, Micheal Frolik, Boris Valabik, Andrei Kostitsyn.
At 20th overall you get Angelo Esposito, David Fisher, Travis Zajac, Brent Burns, Dan Paille.
At 21st overall you get Bob Sanguinetti, Tuukka Rask, Wojtek Wolski, Colby Armstrong, Volchenkov.

There really is not a significant difference except for the rare Logan Couture thrown in there.

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04-07-2013, 10:22 AM
  #539
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Originally Posted by Devils Dominion View Post
It's worth more in the short term but not in the long run.
No that is wrong.

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04-07-2013, 10:26 AM
  #540
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No that is wrong.
See my last post. It's not wrong.

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04-07-2013, 10:28 AM
  #541
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Guys, say we let Kosto walk

Would you be opposed to getting Weise's rights. He was a scorer in the WHL, he is like Kosto in that he fights but gets killed, but he is a decent hockey player..for a 4th line role it would be good I think

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04-07-2013, 10:29 AM
  #542
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Well if you're talking three years from now of course the mediocre pick now is worth more than a slightly better pick two years later at 'that' point, but in the end it has less value after both picks' careers are over, assuming the higher pick has a better NHL career.

How many GM's actually wind up trading their first round pick two years or three years away for one this year though? That never happens so obviously teams don't subscribe to the theory of get a mediocre pick now and punt a potentially better pick later. Especially in what wasn't supposed to be a very strong draft to begin with.

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04-07-2013, 10:29 AM
  #543
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tycobb View Post
It is very simple logic that for some reason people don't understand. A 29th pick in 2012 draft is worth a heck of alot more than the ~15 pick in 2014. Even if we won the cup Lou was still going to keep the 30th pick and wait until that last possible year to forfeit the first round pick.

I hope we don't overpay for Clarkson. This team needs a #1 defenseman and a #1 line winger. I am hoping we make a trade for Yandle in the offseason if available.
He should've went hard for yandle at the deadline. Whether or not we made the playoffs or not. He'd be on the team and integrated and ready for next year. No but Sullivan should put us over the top. Ugh

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04-07-2013, 10:31 AM
  #544
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Originally Posted by Unknown Caller View Post
This. Please look at player selections for each draft slot. Whether you pick in the 8-10 range or the 20-24 range, there's almost no difference in the odds of that player panning out.

Example:

At 9th overall you get Logan Couture, James Sheppard, Josh Bailey, Ladislav Smid.
At 10th overall you get Keaton Ellerby, Micheal Frolik, Boris Valabik, Andrei Kostitsyn.
At 20th overall you get Angelo Esposito, David Fisher, Travis Zajac, Brent Burns, Dan Paille.
At 21st overall you get Bob Sanguinetti, Tuukka Rask, Wojtek Wolski, Colby Armstrong, Volchenkov.

There really is not a significant difference except for the rare Logan Couture thrown in there.
http://myslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/sports..._NHL_Draft.pdf

9th pick value 596
10th pick value 565
20th pick value 350
21st pick value 336

The 9th pick is worth nearly twice as much as the 21st pick.

But the 29th pick in 2012 on draft day was worth more than a 15th pick in 2014.

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04-07-2013, 10:32 AM
  #545
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Steve Bernier was drafted 16th overall in 2003

Getzlaf, Perry, Parise, Burns, Kesler and Mike Richards were all picked after him

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04-07-2013, 10:32 AM
  #546
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Originally Posted by åboriginal View Post
He should've went hard for yandle at the deadline. Whether or not we made the playoffs or not. He'd be on the team and integrated and ready for next year. No but Sullivan should put us over the top. Ugh
Obviously 5 mediocre NHL players should be equivalent to one Parise.

Kinda like in 5th grade when I traded my Charizard card for some kid's entire **** collection of generic low level pokemon.

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04-07-2013, 10:34 AM
  #547
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Originally Posted by tycobb View Post
http://myslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/sports..._NHL_Draft.pdf

9th pick value 596
10th pick value 565
20th pick value 350
21st pick value 336

The 9th pick is worth nearly twice as much as the 21st pick.

But the 29th pick in 2012 on draft day was worth more than a 15th pick in 2014.
Yeah, I'll trust my eyes and just look at the players myself. I'm sure that's interesting but you lost me at the scatter plot. They also do not take production into account whatsoever, only games played. It doesn't account for the actual quality of the NHL player. A third line player who has a long career would have the same value as Steven Stamkos under that analysis.

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04-07-2013, 10:36 AM
  #548
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Anyone can post a list of draft picks to support whatever view point they want (whether it's pick 10 being not really that much better than pick 30 or vice versa). Obviously draft picks aren't going to always hit at the top or always be wasted at the bottom, it's an inexact science.

Thing is when you don't know what's going to be available to you or how the player's career pans out beforehand, a #10-15 pick should eventually have infinitely more value than a #29 pick in theory. In practice it may not work out that way but that doesn't mean GM's should go trading their firsts two years down the road for a pick at the back end of a first round in a weak draft this year.

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04-07-2013, 10:37 AM
  #549
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Originally Posted by NJDevs26 View Post
Well if you're talking three years from now of course the mediocre pick now is worth more than a slightly better pick two years later at 'that' point, but in the end it has less value after both picks' careers are over, assuming the higher pick has a better NHL career.

How many GM's actually wind up trading their first round pick two years or three years away for one this year though? That never happens so obviously teams don't subscribe to the theory of get a mediocre pick now and punt a potentially better pick later. Especially in what wasn't supposed to be a very strong draft to begin with.
That is a big assumption. What if 2014 is a VERY weak draft? What if 2012 was a VERY strong draft.

Lou made the right decision at the time to take the pick now and wait until 2014 to forfeit the pick.

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04-07-2013, 10:37 AM
  #550
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Looking at the 2003 draft

Joe Pavelski and Kyle Brodziak were 7th round picks

Dustin Byfuglien and Tobias Enstrom were 8th round picks

Matt Moulson and Jaroslav Halak were 9th round picks

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