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Algorythm to predict goalie performance in NHL

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03-30-2013, 02:12 PM
  #1
Bibeen
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Algorythm to predict goalie performance in NHL

I'm pretty it's possible. Which statistics we should consider to predict goalie performance and the degree of importance it.

1- save %
2- gaa
3- games played and game started
4- shot against (average of the league and of the team)
5- TOI
6- SO
7 - and what?

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03-30-2013, 02:16 PM
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Two of the most important steps are to (1) normalize for the scoring environment in the league, and (2) normalize for the quality of the league relative to the NHL (for instance, goaltenders moving from the AHL to the NHL might have statistics that look 15% worse).

hockeygoalies.org does the first. I'm working on some things for the second, but they aren't ready to publish yet.

In lower leagues, it's probably also worth adjusting for strength of schedule (it's probably valuable in the NHL, but it certainly has more effect in lower leagues with less parity).

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03-30-2013, 02:19 PM
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One other thing to consider when projecting future goaltending performance is who's blocking him at the next level.

If you're a forward, you can work your ass off in practice, end up spot-starting on the fourth line, and work your way up. If you're a goalie, there isn't much room for upward mobility.

(Who's blocking him may also include an organization that's historically patient with netminder development).

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03-30-2013, 02:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Taco MacArthur View Post
Two of the most important steps are to (1) normalize for the scoring environment in the league, and (2) normalize for the quality of the league relative to the NHL (for instance, goaltenders moving from the AHL to the NHL might have statistics that look 15% worse).

hockeygoalies.org does the first. I'm working on some things for the second, but they aren't ready to publish yet.

In lower leagues, it's probably also worth adjusting for strength of schedule (it's probably valuable in the NHL, but it certainly has more effect in lower leagues with less parity).
how can u define the % of quality difference?

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03-30-2013, 02:27 PM
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One way is to look at the performance of goaltenders who play at both levels in the same season.

The trick is to remove the distortions present in each league, and then hope that the signal outweighs the noise.

If it were easy, I'd have some stuff published already. The Puck Prospectus folks have done a pretty good job in this area.

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03-30-2013, 02:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Taco MacArthur View Post
One other thing to consider when projecting future goaltending performance is who's blocking him at the next level.

If you're a forward, you can work your ass off in practice, end up spot-starting on the fourth line, and work your way up. If you're a goalie, there isn't much room for upward mobility.

(Who's blocking him may also include an organization that's historically patient with netminder development).

How can u know who's blocking the goaltender if he's not even drafted?

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03-30-2013, 02:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bibeen View Post
How can u know who's blocking the goaltender if he's not even drafted?
As a part of the "next level", I meant (but didn't say) that the next level would include "backup in current league" to "starter at current league".

Even in the league that he's currently playing in, he could be blocked by someone. That would affect his current stats (and you'd want to adjust when projecting).

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03-30-2013, 02:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Taco MacArthur View Post
As a part of the "next level", I meant (but didn't say) that the next level would include "backup in current league" to "starter at current league".

Even in the league that he's currently playing in, he could be blocked by someone. That would affect his current stats (and you'd want to adjust when projecting).
oh yeah, I misunderstood what u meant... That problem can be solved by the TOI of the goaltender or do u think that it's way more complicated than that and there are much more to consider?

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03-30-2013, 02:42 PM
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I think that there's more to consider (although I do agree that it can be done).

For instance, suppose that you have two goaltenders at the same level, and that you have a magic formula that determines the "value" of the goaltender.

If Goaltender X (value 40) is on the same team as Goaltender A (value 90), he's going to get a lot less playing time - and different opportunities within that playing time - than if he's on the same team as Goaltender B (value 50).

His statistics are going to look different, even though he's the same goaltender.

Complicating things (and depending on the age of the goaltender), his future potential is likely different in those two situations.

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03-30-2013, 03:21 PM
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None of these things even matter, if a goalie is on a good team he will look good, same can be said for being on a bad team.

The most valuable asset a goalie can have is mental toughness.

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03-30-2013, 03:28 PM
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Originally Posted by NVious View Post
None of these things even matter, if a goalie is on a good team he will look good, same can be said for being on a bad team.

The most valuable asset a goalie can have is mental toughness.
That's why I suggest to consider the average shot against of the league and the average goal against of the league to compare with the goaltender team. I think it's a good way to determine if a goaltender if playing with a good team or not... no?

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