HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > General Hockey Discussion > National Hockey League Talk
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
National Hockey League Talk Discuss NHL players, teams, games, and the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

2012-13 Magic Number/Elimination Thread (5th Anniversary Edition!)

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools
Old
04-21-2013, 02:52 PM
  #276
DocWest
2012 & 2014 Champs
 
DocWest's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Los Angeles
Country: United States
Posts: 10,768
vCash: 500
Shouldn't the first page be updated with the Kings clinching?

By the way, this thread is so informative. I love watching how all the numbers work. Well done, Mayor Bee!

DocWest is offline  
Old
04-21-2013, 05:16 PM
  #277
aemoreira1981
Registered User
 
aemoreira1981's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: New York City
Country: United States
Posts: 5,154
vCash: 500
The New Jersey Devils' season now sleeps with the Jersey Devil.

aemoreira1981 is offline  
Old
04-21-2013, 06:59 PM
  #278
Reverend Mayhem
I would be awesomer.
 
Reverend Mayhem's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Port Coquitlam, BC
Country: Canada
Posts: 21,335
vCash: 500
Send a message via Skype™ to Reverend Mayhem
Quote:
Originally Posted by DocWest View Post
Shouldn't the first page be updated with the Kings clinching?

By the way, this thread is so informative. I love watching how all the numbers work. Well done, Mayor Bee!
How did LA clinch? Only Columbus can't catch them, correct? I need some 'splainin

EDIT: Got it. Was not aware DAL/DET play each other.

Reverend Mayhem is online now  
Old
04-21-2013, 07:03 PM
  #279
tsanuri
Moderator
 
tsanuri's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Grants Pass OR
Country: United States
Posts: 3,774
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Reverend Mayhem View Post
How did LA clinch? Only Columbus can't catch them, correct? I need some 'splainin
It's because Detroit and Dallas play in the last game of the season. So Detroit could tie the Kings going 3-1 they would loose in ROW. And Dallas could catch them going 4-0 and be ahead. And both those could happen but LA would still get in under the tie break. Only way for Detroit to pass LA would be to go 4-0 and if order for that to happen then Dallas must lose 1 game. So they have clinched because of that last game.

tsanuri is online now  
Old
04-21-2013, 07:16 PM
  #280
CBCnutcase
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 1,712
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by TonySCV View Post
If the Kings get 1 point tonight, they clinch at least 7th. If Kings win in regulation AND MIN loses in regulation tonight, Kings clinch at least 6th.
A Kings win will also tie them with Vancouver and both teams will be 3 points back of the Ducks for the #2 seed in the west. If the Kings get a ROW, they will have the tiebreaker over the Canucks.

CBCnutcase is offline  
Old
04-21-2013, 07:37 PM
  #281
Modo
Mo'Benn
 
Modo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Etobicoke
Country: Canada
Posts: 46,311
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by CBCnutcase View Post
A Kings win will also tie them with Vancouver and both teams will be 3 points back of the Ducks for the #2 seed in the west. If the Kings get a ROW, they will have the tiebreaker over the Canucks.
Pfft, who wants THAT, though?

I mean, especially at a time like this.

__________________
RIP octopi
Modo is offline  
Old
04-21-2013, 10:56 PM
  #282
Mayor Bee
\/me_____you\/
 
Mayor Bee's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 16,376
vCash: 500
Updated through 4/21/2013

From today...

New Jersey has been eliminated from the playoff race

Edmonton has been eliminated from the playoff race

(Side note: I have no idea where my elimination scenarios from last night's update went.)

For tomorrow...

Chicago can clinch the Presidents Trophy with a win against Vancouver AND a Pittsburgh regulation loss against Ottawa

Anaheim can clinch the Pacific Division and #2 seed in the Western Conference with a win against Edmonton OR a Vancouver regulation loss against Chicago OR with an OT/SO loss against Edmonton AND a Vancouver OT/SO loss against Chicago

Ottawa can clinch a playoff spot with a win against Pittsburgh AND a Winnipeg regulation loss against Buffalo

San Jose can clinch a playoff spot with a Detroit regulation loss against Phoenix

St. Louis can clinch a playoff spot with a Detroit regulation loss against Phoenix

Mayor Bee is offline  
Old
04-21-2013, 11:10 PM
  #283
8inblack
Registered User
 
8inblack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Hesperia, CA
Country: United States
Posts: 1,006
vCash: 500
Send a message via AIM to 8inblack Send a message via Yahoo to 8inblack
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayor Bee View Post
Updated through 4/21/2013

From today...

New Jersey has been eliminated from the playoff race

Edmonton has been eliminated from the playoff race

(Side note: I have no idea where my elimination scenarios from last night's update went.)

For tomorrow...

Chicago can clinch the Presidents Trophy with a win against Vancouver AND a Pittsburgh regulation loss against Ottawa

Anaheim can clinch the Pacific Division and #2 seed in the Western Conference with a win against Edmonton OR a Vancouver regulation loss against Chicago OR with an OT/SO loss against Edmonton AND a Vancouver OT/SO loss against Chicago

Ottawa can clinch a playoff spot with a win against Pittsburgh AND a Winnipeg regulation loss against Buffalo

San Jose can clinch a playoff spot with a Detroit regulation loss against Phoenix

St. Louis can clinch a playoff spot with a Detroit regulation loss against Phoenix
Isn't there a scenario where Anaheim clinches the pacific winner as the #2 seed but not necessarily the pacific division for themselves?

EDIT: I think if Anaheim loses in ot/so and Vancouver loses in ot/so, Anaheim loses there remaining 2 games, and LA wins all 3 of their games LA wins the Pacific as the #2 seed.

8inblack is offline  
Old
04-21-2013, 11:14 PM
  #284
Mayor Bee
\/me_____you\/
 
Mayor Bee's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 16,376
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by 8inblack View Post
Isn't there a scenario where Anaheim clinches the pacific winner as the #2 seed but not necessarily the pacific division for themselves?
Yeah, they'd need an OT/SO loss tomorrow. That would clinch the Pacific winner as #2 without the Ducks actually winning the division at that time.

To actually finish as #2 in the Pacific with someone else winning, they'd have to have the OT/SO loss tomorrow, then finish 0-2-0. At the same time, Los Angeles would have to finish 3-0-0. And since the Kings have more R/OT wins even right now, those could be three SO wins and it wouldn't matter.

(It's amazing how much more clearly I can think after a good night's sleep)

Mayor Bee is offline  
Old
04-22-2013, 01:25 AM
  #285
Canada4Gold
Registered User
 
Canada4Gold's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 13,865
vCash: 500
Missed a couple scenarios

Ottawa will be eliminated for the division race with a loss of any kind.

Vancouver clinches the division with a point.

Anaheim only clinches the Pacific with a win. All other scenarios listed there do clinch the 2 seed for the Pacific champ but under those scenarios it's still possible that could be LA.

I think that's everything

Canada4Gold is online now  
Old
04-22-2013, 08:08 AM
  #286
ZARTONK
Headscratcher!
 
ZARTONK's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Montreal
Country: Armenia
Posts: 9,197
vCash: 500
It's still possible for the fourth position in the East not be a NE team right?

ZARTONK is offline  
Old
04-22-2013, 08:10 AM
  #287
DevilChuk*
(not that -chuk)
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 7,879
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by ZARTONK View Post
It's still possible for the fourth position in the East not be a NE team right?
Nope.

Highest non-NE team are the Islanders who have 53 points and 3 games remaining. If they win out and Montreal + everyone else loses out, they tie the Habs with 59 points.. except Montreal will automatically have more ROW (24 vs. 20 right now).

Toronto and Ottawa can still take it, though.

DevilChuk* is offline  
Old
04-22-2013, 08:11 AM
  #288
Shrimper
Trick or ruddy treat
 
Shrimper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Essex
Country: United Kingdom
Posts: 79,069
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by ZARTONK View Post
It's still possible for the fourth position in the East not be a NE team right?
Only team that can catch Montreal that isn't a NE team is the Islanders but if the Isles lose 1 game or the Habs win 1 then that's it.

Shrimper is offline  
Old
04-22-2013, 08:17 AM
  #289
Kane One
HFB Partner
 
Kane One's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Brooklyn, New NY
Country: United States
Posts: 31,545
vCash: 2400
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shrimper View Post
Only team that can catch Montreal that isn't a NE team is the Islanders but if the Isles lose 1 game or the Habs win 1 then that's it.
The best the Islanders could do is tie Montreal in points, but Montreal already clinched the tiebreaker.

__________________
Kane One is online now  
Old
04-22-2013, 09:43 AM
  #290
Talain
Hit the Road Jack!
 
Talain's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 755
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by aemoreira1981 View Post
The New Jersey Devils' season now sleeps with the Jersey Devil.
A fitting end.

They could have at least hampered the Rangers playoff chances a bit. Instead they go out with a whimper.

(A Ranger fan would see it fitting as the Devils ended their season last year. As an Islander fan, I see the Devils as having been completely useless that game).

Talain is offline  
Old
04-22-2013, 10:29 AM
  #291
TaketheCannoli
RIP
 
TaketheCannoli's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Ohio
Country: United States
Posts: 8,744
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayor Bee View Post
Updated through 4/21/2013

From today...

New Jersey has been eliminated from the playoff race

Edmonton has been eliminated from the playoff race

(Side note: I have no idea where my elimination scenarios from last night's update went.)

For tomorrow...

Chicago can clinch the Presidents Trophy with a win against Vancouver AND a Pittsburgh regulation loss against Ottawa

Anaheim can clinch the Pacific Division and #2 seed in the Western Conference with a win against Edmonton OR a Vancouver regulation loss against Chicago OR with an OT/SO loss against Edmonton AND a Vancouver OT/SO loss against Chicago

Ottawa can clinch a playoff spot with a win against Pittsburgh AND a Winnipeg regulation loss against Buffalo

San Jose can clinch a playoff spot with a Detroit regulation loss against Phoenix

St. Louis can clinch a playoff spot with a Detroit regulation loss against Phoenix
Did Dallas's elimination number drop from 6 to 3 with their OT loss even though the Wings didn't play? It looks like the Wings magic number didn't change. I'm assuming that's because they didn't play Sunday.

It also looks like Columbus's elimination number dropped from 6 to 4 after a regulation win when the 8th place magic number team Detroit didn't play. How does that work?

TaketheCannoli is offline  
Old
04-22-2013, 10:42 AM
  #292
Mayor Bee
\/me_____you\/
 
Mayor Bee's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 16,376
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by TaketheCannoli View Post
Did Dallas's elimination number drop from 6 to 3 with their OT loss even though the Wings didn't play? It looks like the Wings magic number didn't change. I'm assuming that's because they didn't play Sunday.

It also looks like Columbus's elimination number dropped from 6 to 4 after a regulation win when the 8th place magic number team Detroit didn't play. How does that work?
Any time that a team in the top-8 in points but not in the top-9 in possible points wins a game, their elimination number actually drops. It's a mathematical anomaly brought on due to a difference in the number of games played among the various teams.

In the case of Dallas specifically, theirs dropped by 3 from two things:
- They lost a possible point to Los Angeles (1 point)
- Columbus (in the top-8 in points) won a game (2 points)

Mayor Bee is offline  
Old
04-22-2013, 11:07 AM
  #293
islandersbob
Registered User
 
islandersbob's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: saved me
Posts: 580
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by DevilChuk View Post
Nope.

Highest non-NE team are the Islanders who have 53 points and 3 games remaining. If they win out and Montreal + everyone else loses out, they tie the Habs with 59 points.. except Montreal will automatically have more ROW (24 vs. 20 right now).

Toronto and Ottawa can still take it, though.
Wrong, Isles can still get 4th, though it's a longshot, it has to go to the 4th and final tie-breaker, goal differential, which the Isles currently trail to Boston by +26 to +3

So for it to happen,

1. Montreal has to win the NE
2. Boston and Isles have to finish tied with 59 points and 23 ROW
3. Toronto and Ottawa both finish with < 59 points
AND
4. Isles wins (3 of them) + Boston loses (4 of them) must equate to a goal differential of +24 for the Isles

islandersbob is offline  
Old
04-22-2013, 12:55 PM
  #294
hatterson
Global Moderator
 
hatterson's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: North Tonawanda, NY
Country: United States
Posts: 12,583
vCash: 50
Send a message via Skype™ to hatterson
Quote:
Originally Posted by islandersbob View Post
Wrong, Isles can still get 4th, though it's a longshot, it has to go to the 4th and final tie-breaker, goal differential, which the Isles currently trail to Boston by +26 to +3

So for it to happen,

1. Montreal has to win the NE
2. Boston and Isles have to finish tied with 59 points and 23 ROW
3. Toronto and Ottawa both finish with < 59 points
AND
4. Isles wins (3 of them) + Boston loses (4 of them) must equate to a goal differential of +24 for the Isles
This is a great example of the schedule this year messing with the tie breaker.

The 2nd tie breaker (Behind ROW and ahead of goal differential) is head to head. However:
Quote:
The greater number of points earned in games between the tied clubs. If two clubs are tied, and have not played an equal number of home games against each other, points earned in the first game played in the city that had the extra game shall not be included. If more than two clubs are tied, the higher percentage of available points earned in games among those clubs, and not including any "odd" games, shall be used to determine the standing.
Even though Boston has 4 points from the season series with the Isles and the Isles only have 2, Boston has the advantage of having played 2 home games against the Isles. Therefore the *first* of those (a 4-2 Boston win) doesn't count and both teams are down to 2 points from the series and goal differential would hold.

Granted a +23 is a *massive* goal differential to overcome. The Isles 3 best wins of the season were a 4 goal win and several 3 goal wins. So if they match their previous best 3 games they'll improve 10 goals in the differential. Boston's worst 4 were a 3 goal loss and 3 2 goal losses. If they matched that they'd move down 9 goals meaning the differential would still be at a relative -4 for the Isles.

Not impossible, but absurdly unlikely.

__________________
Come join us on the By The Numbers forum. Take a look at our introduction post if you're new. If you have any questions, feel free to PM me.
hatterson is online now  
Old
04-22-2013, 12:57 PM
  #295
Tawnos
A guy with a bass
 
Tawnos's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Charlotte, NC
Country: United States
Posts: 14,401
vCash: 500
I forgot about the way the season series break works with the 3 game series this year. Overcomplication.

Tawnos is offline  
Old
04-22-2013, 12:58 PM
  #296
hatterson
Global Moderator
 
hatterson's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: North Tonawanda, NY
Country: United States
Posts: 12,583
vCash: 50
Send a message via Skype™ to hatterson
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tawnos View Post
That would be right if the 2nd tiebreaker was goal differential. It's actually season series, in which the Bruins won 2 of 3.
See my post above for why the season series tie breaker would actually be tied.

hatterson is online now  
Old
04-22-2013, 01:10 PM
  #297
hatterson
Global Moderator
 
hatterson's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: North Tonawanda, NY
Country: United States
Posts: 12,583
vCash: 50
Send a message via Skype™ to hatterson
Also a couple random scenarios for Tonight's game.

Montreal can clinch a finish no lower than 5th with an Ottawa loss of any kind tonight.
Boston can clinch a finish no lower than 6th with an Ottawa loss of any kind tonight.
Ottawa is eliminated from the division race with any kind of loss tonight

hatterson is online now  
Old
04-22-2013, 11:38 PM
  #298
Mayor Bee
\/me_____you\/
 
Mayor Bee's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 16,376
vCash: 500
Updated through 4/22/2013

From today...

Anaheim has clinched both the Pacific Division and the #2 seed in the Western Conference

Vancouver has clinched the Northwest Division and the #3 seed in the Western Conference

For tomorrow...

NY Islanders can clinch a playoff spot with a win against Carolina AND a Winnipeg OT/SO loss against Washington, OR with an OT/SO loss against Carolina AND a Winnipeg regulation loss against Washington

Washington can clinch a playoff spot, the Southeast Division, and the #3 seed in the Eastern Conference with a regulation or OT win against Winnipeg (a shootout win will not do it)

NY Rangers can clinch a playoff spot with a win against Florida AND a Winnipeg regulation loss against Washington

Florida can clinch 30th overall and a top-2 draft pick with a loss of any kind against NY Rangers

Los Angeles can clinch the #4 seed in the Western Conference with a win against Minnesota AND a St. Louis regulation loss against Colorado AND a San Jose regulation loss against Dallas

San Jose can clinch a playoff spot with a win or OT/SO loss against Dallas

St. Louis can clinch a playoff spot with a win against Colorado

(I think that's all for tomorrow, and I think that's accurate.)

Mayor Bee is offline  
Old
04-22-2013, 11:46 PM
  #299
Canada4Gold
Registered User
 
Canada4Gold's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 13,865
vCash: 500
1 more to add, and 2 minor corrections

the LA scenario works for a St. Louis loss of any kind.

St. Louis clinches with a point as well.

and Phoenix will be eliminated from the playoffs with a Minnesota win or a OT/SO loss

This is true because Phoenix maxes out at 52. if Minnesota gets a point they're ahead of them. Columbus plays Dallas if Columbus wins then Pheonix couldn't pass them so Dallas would have to win. Then Dallas Detroit plays both at 50 so 1 would have to be ahead of them.

I think that's it

Canada4Gold is online now  
Old
04-22-2013, 11:48 PM
  #300
bWo
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Calgary
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,472
vCash: 630
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayor Bee View Post

Washington can clinch a playoff spot, the Southeast Division, and the #3 seed in the Eastern Conference with a regulation or OT win against Winnipeg (a shootout win will not do it)
why no shootout win?

bWo is offline  
Closed Thread

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 10:15 PM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2015, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. 2015 All Rights Reserved.