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2012-13 Magic Number/Elimination Thread (5th Anniversary Edition!)

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Old
04-18-2013, 12:56 PM
  #201
Fallenity
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Originally Posted by KopitarFAN View Post
So because they have the 2nd most ROW among those tied for 8th in max points (DAL, DET CBJ) at 57, is DET technically 9th? If not, who is?
Essentially yes, imo it's Dallas -> Detroit -> CBJ. But if Dallas wins even 1 of the 2 games it has on CBJ / Detroit via shootout, then the ROW will be tied and it's head-to-head points.

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Old
04-18-2013, 01:44 PM
  #202
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Originally Posted by KopitarFAN View Post
So because they have the 2nd most ROW among those tied for 8th in max points (DAL, DET CBJ) at 57, is DET technically 9th? If not, who is?
if all teams wins their remaining games despite the fact that they`ll face each others
Rank -- Team -- GP -- PTS -- ROW --> max GP -- Max pts -- Max ROW
8 COLUMBUS 44 49 16 --> 48 57 20
9 DETROIT 43 47 18 --> 48 57 23
10 DALLAS 42 45 19 --> 48 57 25

We can see that all 3 teams finishes with 57 pts

Dallas would finish 8th
Detroit 9th
Columbus 10th

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Old
04-18-2013, 02:19 PM
  #203
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Originally Posted by llamateizer View Post
if all teams wins their remaining games despite the fact that they`ll face each others
Rank -- Team -- GP -- PTS -- ROW --> max GP -- Max pts -- Max ROW
8 COLUMBUS 44 49 16 --> 48 57 20
9 DETROIT 43 47 18 --> 48 57 23
10 DALLAS 42 45 19 --> 48 57 25

We can see that all 3 teams finishes with 57 pts

Dallas would finish 8th
Detroit 9th
Columbus 10th
Had a comment it was wrong...move along...nothing to see here


Last edited by AndyTML: 04-18-2013 at 02:20 PM. Reason: Error reading original post
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Old
04-18-2013, 05:49 PM
  #204
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Vancouver can clinch tonight? This true?

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Old
04-18-2013, 06:00 PM
  #205
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Vancouver can clinch tonight? This true?
win and you're in for the Canucks

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Old
04-18-2013, 06:14 PM
  #206
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Originally Posted by puckluck19 View Post
win and you're in for the Canucks
I don't think Vancouver would clinch if they won in a shootout.

It'd be very very very close however.

Vancouver would have 57. Detroit and Columbus could still get to 57.

Cloumbus would have to win out in ROW to tie Vancouver in ROW.

Vancouver has the H2H tiebreaker against Columbus.

However if Detroit got to 57 points and 20 ROW as well it would be a 3 way H2H.

The last home game in both cities would count in this 3 way H2H.

In those games Vancouver has 4 points, Columbus 6, and Detroit has 3 I believe, but Detroit has a game against Vancouver which they'd have to win to keep Vancouver at 57 so they'd have 5. Vancouver would be below Columbus and Detroit and possibly 9 in this very very very unlikely scenario.

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Old
04-18-2013, 07:21 PM
  #207
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Originally Posted by Canada4Gold View Post
I don't think Vancouver would clinch if they won in a shootout.

It'd be very very very close however.

Vancouver would have 57. Detroit and Columbus could still get to 57.

Cloumbus would have to win out in ROW to tie Vancouver in ROW.

Vancouver has the H2H tiebreaker against Columbus.

However if Detroit got to 57 points and 20 ROW as well it would be a 3 way H2H.

The last home game in both cities would count in this 3 way H2H.

In those games Vancouver has 4 points, Columbus 6, and Detroit has 3 I believe, but Detroit has a game against Vancouver which they'd have to win to keep Vancouver at 57 so they'd have 5. Vancouver would be below Columbus and Detroit and possibly 9 in this very very very unlikely scenario.

Any Van win over Dallas puts VAN out of reach of Dallas so it comes down to Detroit/CLB

Vancouver wins in REG/OT (57pts, 21 ROW) CLB max 57pts, 20 ROW
Vancouver wins in SO (57pts, 20 ROW) CLB max 57pts, 20 ROW but VAN has the HtoH 4-2

Although Detroit can catch Vancouver on ROW, Columbus can not if VAN wins.

9 teams, one of which is VAN leaving 8 opponents, of those 8 only 7 have the ability to surpass VAN in the standings, ergo, VAN must be a top 8 team

Its a weird situation, but that's the truth. Win and in.

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Old
04-18-2013, 07:52 PM
  #208
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Quote:
Originally Posted by puckluck19 View Post
Any Van win over Dallas puts VAN out of reach of Dallas so it comes down to Detroit/CLB

Vancouver wins in REG/OT (57pts, 21 ROW) CLB max 57pts, 20 ROW
Vancouver wins in SO (57pts, 20 ROW) CLB max 57pts, 20 ROW but VAN has the HtoH 4-2

Although Detroit can catch Vancouver on ROW, Columbus can not if VAN wins.

9 teams, one of which is VAN leaving 8 opponents, of those 8 only 7 have the ability to surpass VAN in the standings, ergo, VAN must be a top 8 team

Its a weird situation, but that's the truth. Win and in.
Did you read what I wrote?

They clinch with a ROW win.

If the win in a SO then they have 57 points, 20 ROW.

Columbus can max out at 57 points, 20 ROW.

Yes Vancouver does have the H2H tiebreaker.

However if it were a 3 way tie with Detroit at 57 points, 20 ROW the h2h tiebreaker involves all 3 teams.

Vancouver would in fact lose a 3 way head to head tiebreaker between them, Columbus and Detroit

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Old
04-18-2013, 08:50 PM
  #209
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If I'm reading the standings right the Wings still control their own destiny right? Win out in regulation, and then they finish ahead of Dallas and hold the ROW with Columbus. Meanwhile 8th place Columbus could still miss the playoffs even if they win out? Weird situation.

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Old
04-18-2013, 09:01 PM
  #210
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Canada4Gold View Post
Did you read what I wrote?

They clinch with a ROW win.

If the win in a SO then they have 57 points, 20 ROW.

Columbus can max out at 57 points, 20 ROW.

Yes Vancouver does have the H2H tiebreaker.

However if it were a 3 way tie with Detroit at 57 points, 20 ROW the h2h tiebreaker involves all 3 teams.

Vancouver would in fact lose a 3 way head to head tiebreaker between them, Columbus and Detroit
you're right, but detroit loses the 3way

van v clb 2 games, 4pts avail

van 4/4
clb 2/4 (two SO losses)


clb v det 4 games, 8pts avail

clb 8/8
det 1/8


van v det 2 games, 4pts avail

det 2/2
van 0/2

1 game to play



columbus 10/12 83.3% of points

vancouver 4/6 66.7% of points

detroit 3/10 30.0% of points


even if detroit wins the final match against van, AND the 3-way happens

columbus 10/12 83.3% of points

vancouver 4/8 50% of points

detroit 5/12 41.6% of points

detroit loses the threeway tiebreaker

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Old
04-18-2013, 09:14 PM
  #211
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Quote:
Originally Posted by llamateizer View Post
if all teams wins their remaining games despite the fact that they`ll face each others
Rank -- Team -- GP -- PTS -- ROW --> max GP -- Max pts -- Max ROW
8 COLUMBUS 44 49 16 --> 48 57 20
9 DETROIT 43 47 18 --> 48 57 23
10 DALLAS 42 45 19 --> 48 57 25

We can see that all 3 teams finishes with 57 pts

Dallas would finish 8th
Detroit 9th
Columbus 10th
Quote:
Originally Posted by Meteor View Post
If I'm reading the standings right the Wings still control their own destiny right? Win out in regulation, and then they finish ahead of Dallas and hold the ROW with Columbus. Meanwhile 8th place Columbus could still miss the playoffs even if they win out? Weird situation.
Dallas control their own destiny
Detroit does not

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Old
04-18-2013, 09:21 PM
  #212
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I mid read the tiebreaker. I assumed it was just the same number of games betweent he tied teams. For example Vancouver/Columbus, and Vancouver/Detroit have played only 3 times, deleted the extra home/road game and that's twice for tiebreaker purposes so I just took the last 2 Detroit/Columbus games, 1 home for Columbus., and 1 home for Detroit. And then go by points not percentage. Vancouver was 3rd doing it that way.

I think that would be the fairer way to do it but that's not what the tiebreaker says.

got it now, thanks

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Old
04-18-2013, 09:22 PM
  #213
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Originally Posted by llamateizer View Post
Dallas control their own destiny
Detroit does not
technically they both do since they play each other.

if Detroit wins out that's 1 more loss for Dallas and then Dallas cannot catch Detroit.

But yeah by the way it's done here with the magic number we assume if everyone won out(ignoring the fact they may play each other) then Dallas is the team that controls their destiny, even though technically since they play each other they both do.

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Old
04-18-2013, 09:24 PM
  #214
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TBL officially eliminated
CAR officially eliminated
NE and ATL division have clinched a top 2 seed
SE have clinched 3rd


Last edited by llamateizer: 04-18-2013 at 09:45 PM.
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Old
04-18-2013, 09:34 PM
  #215
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Originally Posted by Canada4Gold View Post
technically they both do since they play each other.

if Detroit wins out that's 1 more loss for Dallas and then Dallas cannot catch Detroit.

But yeah by the way it's done here with the magic number we assume if everyone won out(ignoring the fact they may play each other) then Dallas is the team that controls their destiny, even though technically since they play each other they both do.
Yes that's what I was getting at. The "9th" and "10th" place teams control their destiny but the "8th place" team doesn't. A real quirk of the schedule.

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Old
04-18-2013, 10:26 PM
  #216
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Heard so far tonight in my house: "Fine! Go take care of that, since you'd OBVIOUSLY rather go play with your numbers than with me!"

(...)
But your avatar could do both, and again, and again, and again...

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04-18-2013, 10:33 PM
  #217
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But your avatar could do both, and again, and again, and again...
So can I.

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Old
04-19-2013, 12:12 AM
  #218
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Updated through 4/18/2013

From today...

Tampa Bay and Carolina have been eliminated from the playoff race

The Southeast Division champion will be the #3 seed in the Eastern Conference; they cannot be #2 (although their collective play most of the year can certainly be described as "the epitome of #2)

For tomorrow...

Buffalo can be eliminated from the playoff race with a regulation loss against NY Rangers

Philadelphia can be eliminated from the playoff race with a win by the NY Rangers against Buffalo

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Old
04-19-2013, 12:26 AM
  #219
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayor Bee View Post
Updated through 4/18/2013

From today...

Tampa Bay and Carolina have been eliminated from the playoff race

The Southeast Division champion will be the #3 seed in the Eastern Conference; they cannot be #2 (although their collective play most of the year can certainly be described as "the epitome of #2)

For tomorrow...

Buffalo can be eliminated from the playoff race with a regulation loss against NY Rangers

Philadelphia can be eliminated from the playoff race with a win by the NY Rangers against Buffalo
FYI, I was looking at the Devils (bleak) playoff outlook and there actually is a scenario that the Rangers can get 4 points and the Devils still grab 8th from them. So 4 points isn't really the hard clinch.

If Rangers go 0-1-4 or 2-3 with only one ROW, the Devils can finish at 52 points by going 5-0.. and if all those wins are in regulation, the Rangers and Devils would be tied at 52 points, tied in ROW with 19 but the Devils would have the H2H tiebreaker.

Ridiculously unlikely scenario but figured it was worth the post. The technical hard clinch for the Rangers (or Devils elimination number) would actually be 5.

EDIT: nevermind, the Jets would eliminate the Devils with 4 points because they will 100% own the tiebreaker.. so the Jets technically can eliminate the Devils with 4 points, the Rangers would technically need 5 OR 4 with 2 ROWs OR one of those wins coming against the Devils.

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Old
04-19-2013, 12:32 AM
  #220
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Originally Posted by DevilChuk View Post
FYI, I was looking at the Devils (bleak) playoff outlook and there actually is a scenario that the Rangers can get 4 points and the Devils still grab 8th from them. So 4 points isn't really the hard clinch.

If Rangers go 0-1-4 or 2-3 with only one ROW, the Devils can finish at 52 points by going 5-0.. and if all those wins are in regulation, the Rangers and Devils would be tied at 52 points, tied in ROW with 19 but the Devils would have the H2H tiebreaker.

Ridiculously unlikely scenario but figured it was worth the post. The technical hard clinch for the Rangers (or Devils elimination number) would actually be 5.
This works only if the Jets completely fall apart in the process as well, since they own the R/OT win tiebreaker that New Jersey cannot mathematically match.

This would get us into a question of whether NJ's number is 4, 5, 4.5, or something with an asterisk to explain it.

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Old
04-19-2013, 12:34 AM
  #221
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This works only if the Jets completely fall apart in the process as well, since they own the R/OT win tiebreaker that New Jersey cannot mathematically match.
Yup, just caught that and edited my original post.

We can still make it with a near-miraculous 5-0 finish combined with the Jets going at best 1-2-1 and the Rangers going at best 1-3-1. Sooo we should be eliminated by early next week at the very best

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Old
04-19-2013, 11:07 AM
  #222
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I believe that should the Penguins win against the Bruins tonight, they'll clinch 1st in the East.

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04-19-2013, 11:25 AM
  #223
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I believe the Ducks are 4 points away from the Division win. They win tonight in Calgary and Sunday in Edmonton and they got it locked up.

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04-19-2013, 01:05 PM
  #224
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I believe that should the Penguins win against the Bruins tonight, they'll clinch 1st in the East.
yep, if the game is not canceled or postponed

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Old
04-19-2013, 01:30 PM
  #225
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I believe that should the Penguins win against the Bruins tonight, they'll clinch 1st in the East.
That's correct. The win could be in regulation, OT, or a shootout.

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