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In-season Proposals, Rumors, Free Agents & Roster Moves (related topics) XXXV

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04-24-2013, 03:27 PM
  #576
ABasin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierce Hawthorne View Post
Otherwise, if Florida wants Mack/Drouin, it would probably only cost us a 3rd round pick to move up.
I believe it would be more expensive than that. In NHL drafts, I'm not sure there is much precedent we can go on, re: moving up the draft board in the first 5 picks of a draft.

However, last year Calgary traded the #14 pick to Buffalo for their #21 pick, plus Buffalo's 2nd. So, which is more valuable - moving up 7 slots in the middle of the first round, or moving up 1 or 2 slots at the very top of the 1st round? The former cost a #2 pick just last year. I'm suggesting that the latter will cost more than the 3rd round pick you are suggesting in your post.

The year before, there was a similar trade between Anaheim and Toronto. Basically, Toronto moved up from the 30th pick to the 22nd pick (8 slots), and had to give up a high 2nd round pick to do it. Again, which is more valuable - 8 slots at the end of the first round, or 1-2 slots at the very top of the draft?

This is why I believe such a move will be expensive - the Avs 2nd round pick as a minimum. If the Avs want Jones and have to trade for him, it'll cost them something valuable.


Last edited by ABasin: 04-24-2013 at 03:33 PM.
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04-24-2013, 03:35 PM
  #577
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Originally Posted by ABasin View Post
I believe it would be more expensive than that. In NHL drafts, I'm not sure there is much precedent we can go on, re: moving up the draft board in the first 5 picks of a draft.

However, last year Calgary traded the #14 pick to Buffalo for their #21 pick, plus Buffalo's 2nd. So, which is more valuable - moving up 7 slots in the middle of the first round, or moving up 1 or 2 slots at the very top of the 1st round? The former cost a #2 pick just last year. I'm suggesting that the latter will cost more than the #3 pick you are suggesting in your post.
"The Florida Panthers trade the first pick and the 73rd pick to the Pittsburgh Penguins for the third pick and the 55th pick."

That was 2003. Basically 1st Overall + a Mid 3rd for 3rd Overall + Late 2nd.


If the Panthers don't intend to draft Jones, and would rather one of the forwards, they could very likely move the 1st for a 3rd rounder + 2nd or 3rd overall.


It all depends on whether they want Jones or not.

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04-24-2013, 03:39 PM
  #578
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Originally Posted by ABasin View Post
I believe it would be more expensive than that. In NHL drafts, I'm not sure there is much precedent we can go on, re: moving up the draft board in the first 5 picks of a draft.

However, last year Calgary traded the #14 pick to Buffalo for their #21 pick, plus Buffalo's 2nd. So, which is more valuable - moving up 7 slots in the middle of the first round, or moving up 1 or 2 slots at the very top of the 1st round? The former cost a #2 pick just last year. I'm suggesting that the latter will cost more than the 3rd round pick you are suggesting in your post.

The year before, there was a similar trade between Anaheim and Toronto. Basically, Toronto moved up from the 30th pick to the 22nd pick (8 slots), and had to give up a high 2nd round pick to do it. Again, which is more valuable - 8 slots at the end of the first round, or 1-2 slots at the very top of the draft?

This is why I believe such a move will be expensive - the Avs 2nd round pick as a minimum. If the Avs want Jones and have to trade for him, it'll cost them something valuable.
Those situations aren't analogous. A team doesn't trade down from #1 to #2 if they are crazy about the highest ranked guy. They only do it if they think they can get their guy. If Florida really wants Jones, Avs can't trade for him without severe overpayment.

The most analogous trade was in 2003 when The Florida Panthers traded the 1st overall + 73rd overall for 3rd overall + 55th overall and Mikael Samuelsson. Not particularly expensive.

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04-24-2013, 03:42 PM
  #579
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The reason you would trade for that pick if Florida doesn't want Jones is to prevent somebody else from trading for that pick. A 3rd is very little to give up to ensure you get the exact player you want at #1. Carolina and Edmonton could both offer a pretty good package to get that pick if they decided they had to have Jones.

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04-24-2013, 03:43 PM
  #580
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierce Hawthorne View Post
"The Florida Panthers trade the first pick and the 73rd pick to the Pittsburgh Penguins for the third pick and the 55th pick."

That was 2003. Basically 1st Overall + a Mid 3rd for 3rd Overall + Late 2nd.
Um. You have not accurately described that trade in its entirety.

Florida also got Mikael Samuelsson, who was a good young player (26) who later turned into a 30 goal NHL scorer.

So, looking at the complete trade - to move up those 2 spots at the beginning of the draft, not only did Pitt give up a 2nd for a 3rd, they gave up a good young player.

This is why I stuck McGinn and/or Barrie in my examples. Because Colorado would likely have to do the same thing.

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04-24-2013, 03:49 PM
  #581
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Originally Posted by ABasin View Post
Um. You have not accurately described that trade in its entirety.

Florida also got Mikael Samuelsson, who was a good young player (26) who later turned into a 30 goal NHL scorer.

So, looking at the complete trade - to move up those 2 spots at the beginning of the draft, not only did Pitt give up a 2nd for a 3rd, they gave up a good young player.

This is why I stuck McGinn and/or Barrie in my examples. Because Colorado would likely have to do the same thing.
Samuelsson didn't have a lot of value at that point. Former fifth round pick that hadn't accomplished anything up to that point (40 points in 151 NHL games). Add that he has the hockey IQ of a cucumber and you have a player that had very low trade value.

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04-24-2013, 03:50 PM
  #582
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ABasin View Post
Um. You have not accurately described that trade in its entirety.

Florida also got Mikael Samuelsson, who was a good young player (26) who later turned into a 30 goal NHL scorer.

So, looking at the complete trade - to move up those 2 spots at the beginning of the draft, not only did Pitt give up a 2nd for a 3rd, they gave up a good young player.

This is why I stuck McGinn and/or Barrie in my examples. Because Colorado would likely have to do the same thing.
Yea, I realized just after I had quoted the trade that I forgot to include Sammy, my bad.


Although in saying that. The 30 goal scorer he became doesn't really have much bearing on the trade. At the time he was delt his previous 2 seasons were 16 pts and 22 Pts(In 67 and 58 games respectively).

Not very impressive, and certainly not a player of Barrie or McGinn's caliber.

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04-24-2013, 03:52 PM
  #583
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Actually it was 24 Pts in 80 Games the season before the 03 draft. Didn't pick up on the trade at first.

But yea, Sammy didn't have much value at that point.

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04-24-2013, 03:54 PM
  #584
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A comparable on the Avs to Samuelsson at that point would be a player like Olver.

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04-24-2013, 03:54 PM
  #585
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Freudian View Post
Samuelsson didn't have a lot of value at that point. Former fifth round pick that hadn't accomplished anything up to that point (40 points in 151 NHL games).
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierce Hawthorne View Post
Although in saying that. The 30 goal scorer he became doesn't really have much bearing on the trade. At the time he was delt his previous 2 seasons were 16 pts and 22 Pts(In 67 and 58 games respectively). Not ot a player of Barrie or McGinn's caliber.
True enough, but Pitt also gave up a 2nd and got a 3rd. So they gave up more. And with the Rangers, he was primarily a defensive center.

In the end, I believe my 3 examples are a reasonable spectrum of possibilities, from pretty dang expensive for the Avs, to more moderate cost. I believe it'll be somewhere in that range. For what it's worth, I'd rather they just draft in their own position and be happy with another good young prospect. They'll likely get a darn good player, and they need help everywhere.

But if they do trade up for the ability to draft Jones, it will not be without pain/payment, I'm pretty sure.

The other issue to note, is that in the end, Florida lost that trade.


Last edited by ABasin: 04-24-2013 at 04:00 PM.
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04-24-2013, 04:01 PM
  #586
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Is it general consensus that the top 3 prospects are head and shoulders above the rest?

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04-24-2013, 04:06 PM
  #587
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I have been wondering for the last while if the Avs end up with either the #1 or #2 pick, is there any situation in which they could also trade for the other top 2 (or possibly top 3) pick.

Reason for this, if you are looking for another big PR move and a way to shake the club up it would be super sweet to add both Jones AND Drouin. (for the record I think the Avs prefer Drouin over MacKinnon)

I could see a situation in which Florida, Tampa, or Nashville would be looking to pick up a real player rather than a prospect out of it all. All 3 of those teams are not that far off from being playoff teams in a good year.

Bundle some combo of Stastny, Barrie/Elliott, the Avs 2nd, one of the depth D men on the roster, and a combo of one or two prospects/players for that pick...maybe even giving up next years first conditionally. (lotto protected or something)

Now, that value alone is probably not enough to land the pick, but what you would do is have the Avs eat some of Stastny's salary next year....which is something that fiscally capped teams like Florida, Tampa, and Nashville would benefit from. (say, eating 2 million of Stastny's salary next year). All three of those clubs are looking for an upgrade/depth up front and all three of them could just as easily be playoff teams next year with some better luck.

Depending on the situation, the Avs may only need to acquire the 3rd pick if they finish first, to which they draft Jones and the 2nd picking team takes Mac.

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04-24-2013, 04:10 PM
  #588
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Originally Posted by ABasin View Post
Is it general consensus that the top 3 prospects are head and shoulders above the rest?
Some have Barkov at the same level as MacKinnon and Drouin. Then we have Nichuchkin, who some claim is the most talented forward in the draft (winger Malkin) but since he signed a three year KHL deal this past summer is less attractive since there is significant risk to a player like that. I really like Lindholm, but he might be slightly behind those two.

I do think Jones/MacKinnon/Drouin will go 1-2-3 but I do think the 4-5-6 players are fantastic consolation prices. Better than what you get in that tier normally.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Drury_Sakic View Post
Bundle some combo of Stastny, Barrie/Elliott, the Avs 2nd, one of the depth D men on the roster, and a combo of one or two prospects/players for that pick...maybe even giving up next years first conditionally. (lotto protected or something).
Stastny probably has much lower value to Florida/Tampa than to other teams. He's basically a one year rental.

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04-24-2013, 04:55 PM
  #589
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Alternatively, Avs first for Nashville's (4th) and Watson would be sweet.

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04-24-2013, 05:41 PM
  #590
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I really hope we don't trade up just to draft Jones. I'd be happier trading down to 5-6th. If Florida even comes asking about trading you know right there that they aren't %100 set on drafting him and may even be planning on Mackinnon regardless.

I have a feeling FLA is going to take advantage of us though.

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04-24-2013, 05:46 PM
  #591
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I really hope we don't trade up just to draft Jones. I'd be happier trading down to 5-6th. If Florida even comes asking about trading you know right there that they aren't %100 set on drafting him and may even be planning on Mackinnon regardless.

I have a feeling FLA is going to take advantage of us though.
Maybe, but who cares.

Its better for the Avs to give up something like a 3rd round pick to ensure we get the player we want at #1 overall, then it would be to have Florida trade there pick to someone else, and then that other team take who we want.


If we draft at #2, it wont take a whole lot for Florida to move there pick to us if they decide to move it.

Personally, I don't care who we get out of Mack/Jones so as long as were Top 2 I don't care. Drouin has soured on me a bit lately and I'd rather get one of the other 2 before him(And even Barkov maybe), but it still wouldn't be a bad thing.

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04-24-2013, 05:48 PM
  #592
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I really hope we don't trade up just to draft Jones. I'd be happier trading down to 5-6th. If Florida even comes asking about trading you know right there that they aren't %100 set on drafting him and may even be planning on Mackinnon regardless.

I have a feeling FLA is going to take advantage of us though.
Don't pay anything. Just pick Drouin or Mackinnon. Whatever. ****. We can tank next season as well. (nooooooooooo)

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04-24-2013, 05:49 PM
  #593
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Originally Posted by Colorado Avalanche View Post
Don't pay anything. Just pick Drouin or Mackinnon. Whatever. ****. We can tank next season as well. (nooooooooooo)
We don't want to tank in 2014, 2015 is the year you want. McDavid

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04-24-2013, 05:50 PM
  #594
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Maybe, but who cares.

Its better for the Avs to give up something like a 3rd round pick to ensure we get the player we want at #1 overall, then it would be to have Florida trade there pick to someone else, and then that other team take who we want.


If we draft at #2, it wont take a whole lot for Florida to move there pick to us if they decide to move it.

Personally, I don't care who we get out of Mack/Jones so as long as were Top 2 I don't care. Drouin has soured on me a bit lately and I'd rather get one of the other 2 before him(And even Barkov maybe), but it still wouldn't be a bad thing.
3rd round pick? Sure, but It's gonna cost more..

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04-24-2013, 05:55 PM
  #595
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Originally Posted by Colorado Avalanche View Post
3rd round pick? Sure, but It's gonna cost more..
Why would it? First of all, the only way Florida moves the pick is if they decide they don't want Jones and they believe whoever they want will still be on the board at #2/3.

If they decide that, then trading there pick will be easier, and they wont ask as much.

Its just like in 03 when PIT and Florida swapped 1st and 3rd picks. The exchange in that trade was just a late 2nd for a mid 3rd and a struggling Samuelsson at the time.


I see no reason why this year would be any different. And if the Panthers decide they want more, the Avs shouldn't make the deal. We could use any of the Top 4 guys.

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04-24-2013, 05:56 PM
  #596
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Personally, I don't care who we get out of Mack/Jones so as long as were Top 2 I don't care.
I just don't see it being worth it to this team to give up ANYTHING to move up 1 spot in a draft that has a top 3 this good.

I'm also one of the people who are hesistant on drafting Jones. Not only for the poor track record they have high in drafts but because this team has trouble developing defensemen. He's not going to have a good supporting cast back there for developement.

I'd rather draft Mack or Drouin and trade Stastny or O'Reilly for a young, but already somewhat proven defender.

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04-24-2013, 06:14 PM
  #597
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You guys do realize that it is most likely not Florida that we would trade with should we try to trade up to #1, right?

We would only be trading for #1 with Florida on the off chance (25%) that Florida wins the lottery. We wouldn't be trading with anyone is the even lower chance we win the lottery.

There is a 56.2% (someone check my math) chance it will be one of the other teams above us in the standings that will be at the #1 spot in the standings that we would be negotiating with for a trade to move to #1. That's over half of all the possibilities. I have not seen one person mention this fact. It's like we forgot what the lottery is I guess.

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04-24-2013, 06:18 PM
  #598
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You guys do realize that it is most likely not Florida that we would trade with should we try to trade up to #1, right?

We would only be trading for #1 with Florida on the off chance (25%) that Florida wins the lottery. We wouldn't be trading with anyone is the even lower chance we win the lottery.

There is a 56.2% (someone check my math) chance it will be one of the other teams above us in the standings that will be at the #1 spot in the standings that we would be negotiating with for a trade to move to #1. That's over half of all the possibilities. I have not seen one person mention this fact. It's like we forgot what the lottery is I guess.
You're also ignoring the fact that out of all the teams, Florida still has the best odds. This is all hypothetical, and the likelihood of any trade happening is basically non-existent in the first place.

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04-24-2013, 06:21 PM
  #599
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You guys do realize that it is most likely not Florida that we would trade with should we try to trade up to #1, right?

We would only be trading for #1 with Florida on the off chance (25%) that Florida wins the lottery. We wouldn't be trading with anyone is the even lower chance we win the lottery.

There is a 56.2% (someone check my math) chance it will be one of the other teams above us in the standings that will be at the #1 spot in the standings that we would be negotiating with for a trade to move to #1. That's over half of all the possibilities. I have not seen one person mention this fact. It's like we forgot what the lottery is I guess.
It's the only scenario where Avs have #2. If another team wins the lottery Avs drop down to #3 and trading up becomes much more unlikely and expensive.

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04-24-2013, 06:25 PM
  #600
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Quote:
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You guys do realize that it is most likely not Florida that we would trade with should we try to trade up to #1, right?
We're just assuming, for trade related purposes, that the team with the best chance of winning the lottery actually does win the lottery (I know, call me crazy).
Florida is also one of the teams who may not draft Jones at #1 and could be a candidate for trading.

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