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2013 NHL Entry Draft Talk II

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Old
05-13-2013, 11:31 AM
  #651
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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
Age should have nothing to do with whether or not you pick a player.
Didn't say it was.

But being in your 3rd year in a given league makes the process of determining upsides harder to gauge.

You can't just say, this guy scored 40 twice, he's better....especially when he's older, more experienced and in a different league.

I know you say this because you favour Mantha (who was one day too old for last years draft).

Age has to be a factor, maybe not the determining factor, but it should be discussed, if it isn't your not doing your due dilligence.

It's not fair to compare Erne and Rychel's stats in a vaccuum, considering their leagues and experience level.

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05-13-2013, 11:45 AM
  #652
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Originally Posted by arsmaster View Post
Didn't say it was.

But being in your 3rd year in a given league makes the process of determining upsides harder to gauge.

You can't just say, this guy scored 40 twice, he's better....especially when he's older, more experienced and in a different league.

I know you say this because you favour Mantha (who was one day too old for last years draft).

Age has to be a factor, maybe not the determining factor, but it should be discussed, if it isn't your not doing your due dilligence.

It's not fair to compare Erne and Rychel's stats in a vaccuum, considering their leagues and experience level.
Of course trying to stat compare across two different leagues is pretty useless. But Rychel last year significantly out scored Erne as well. Rychel is pretty obviously the better goal scorer. I can definitely see where he's coming from, where Erne's maximum upside is probably someone like Ryan Callahan, while Rychel has the potential to be a more prolific goal scorer.

Of course, I like Mantha better than either, as a player can't decide when they were born. He scored the most goals in the Q this year. Regardless of whether he were drafted last year or this year, that's a pretty impressive accomplishment.

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05-13-2013, 11:49 AM
  #653
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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
Of course trying to stat compare across two different leagues is pretty useless. But Rychel last year significantly out scored Erne as well. Rychel is pretty obviously the better goal scorer. I can definitely see where he's coming from, where Erne's maximum upside is probably someone like Ryan Callahan, while Rychel has the potential to be a more prolific goal scorer.

Of course, I like Mantha better than either, as a player can't decide when they were born. He scored the most goals in the Q this year. Regardless of whether he were drafted last year or this year, that's a pretty impressive accomplishment.
Fair enough VKW.

Junior stats don't always translate. That is the issue. Mantha has the talent, does he have the mentality.

Rychel has the mentality and some ability, does he have the speed and skills...


That's the beauty of the draft and scouting in general. It's what makes it so fun.

I don't care if I'm wrong or right, I just want the Canucks to draft the best players.....going by stats alone, sometimes enables you to miss out on good players.

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05-13-2013, 11:52 AM
  #654
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Stats wouldn't tell you to draft Brandon Saad or Milan Lucic. I hate looking at stats and pretending like it tells us everything we need to know.

There are mountains of high-scoring junior players, who even had the size and skills down, who do nothing in the NHL or sometimes even the AHL.

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05-13-2013, 12:04 PM
  #655
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There are mountains of practically every kind of player imaginable that fail to do anything special in the NHL. No scouting technique is perfect, and there is always some element of luck involved. But if we're trying to gamble, I'd rather the return be a Vanek-type player than a Callahan type-player.

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05-13-2013, 12:20 PM
  #656
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Originally Posted by Tiranis View Post
Stats wouldn't tell you to draft Brandon Saad or Milan Lucic. I hate looking at stats and pretending like it tells us everything we need to know.

There are mountains of high-scoring junior players, who even had the size and skills down, who do nothing in the NHL or sometimes even the AHL.
Bingo!

Compete level, hockey IQ, willingness to sacrifice (both on and off the ice). Yes, there are certainly other aspects to a player's make-up that should be considered, when they are drafted. The question is:

Do the Canucks do a good job evaluating these intangibles?

From Gillis' draft history - NO.

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Old
05-13-2013, 12:43 PM
  #657
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If were going for youth, i would like Gillis to get some more picks in this years draft...Roy rights for a 3rd, Raymond's rights for a 2nd. I def think someone would give a late 2nd for Roy's rights, seeing as he is one of the better Centerman's in this Years FA Pool. Luongo for picks.

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05-13-2013, 01:27 PM
  #658
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Originally Posted by SiCKNESS View Post
If were going for youth, i would like Gillis to get some more picks in this years draft...Roy rights for a 3rd, Raymond's rights for a 2nd. I def think someone would give a late 2nd for Roy's rights, seeing as he is one of the better Centerman's in this Years FA Pool. Luongo for picks.
Ehrhoff's rights went for a 4th.

Raymond's rights have absolutely NO VALUE.

Roy's might be worth something similar to Ehrhoff's, but I highly doubt teams are lining up to pay picks for Roy after his lackluster season coupled with the depth of this draft.

We're not in a great position to acquire anymore picks.

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05-13-2013, 01:27 PM
  #659
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The idea that there is a dichotomy between stats and scouting is ridiculous. Both systematically make their own types of errors and using the other can allow you to correct for those biases. Clearly using both is better than just using one or another.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tiranis View Post
Stats wouldn't tell you to draft Brandon Saad or Milan Lucic. I hate looking at stats and pretending like it tells us everything we need to know.

There are mountains of high-scoring junior players, who even had the size and skills down, who do nothing in the NHL or sometimes even the AHL.
Of course there is. That's because the vast majority of prospects do nothing in the NHL and even sometimes the AHL. The question you should be asking is whether stats do a good job relative to average.

The problem with using Lucic and Saad as examples is that the issue is not whether stats (or scouting) have a 100% success rate. The problem with only looking at the successes is that all the failures will have had the same hallmarks that made teams convinced they were getting a good prospect. The question should be whether picking players who don't have stats to back up their ranking inordinately leads to success. I'd be willing to bet that isn't the case, though I don't have the time to actually put together a look into it.

I think Iain Fyffe's work at Puck Prospectus in his Pucks from the Past column is instructive on this, though: http://www.puckprospectus.com/news/?author=8. Using a model that uses G-A-P-+/- for drafting, he's constructed a team that puts to shame anything any NHL team would have done over the same period using scouts for the same picks. Yes, he has some big misses over the years, but on the whole he does well above average. The misses are where scouting could complement stats to get a more complete picture.

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Old
05-13-2013, 01:28 PM
  #660
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SiCKNESS View Post
If were going for youth, i would like Gillis to get some more picks in this years draft...Roy rights for a 3rd, Raymond's rights for a 2nd. I def think someone would give a late 2nd for Roy's rights, seeing as he is one of the better Centerman's in this Years FA Pool. Luongo for picks.
Those rights don't have that kind of value. Might get a fifth for roy.

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Old
05-13-2013, 01:30 PM
  #661
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Originally Posted by pitseleh View Post
The idea that there is a dichotomy between stats and scouting is ridiculous. Both systematically make their own types of errors and using the other can allow you to correct for those biases. Clearly using both is better than just using one or another.

Of course there is. That's because the vast majority of prospects do nothing in the NHL and even sometimes the AHL. The question you should be asking is whether stats do a good job relative to average.

The problem with using Lucic and Saad as examples is that the issue is not whether stats (or scouting) have a 100% success rate. The problem with only looking at the successes is that all the failures will have had the same hallmarks that made teams convinced they were getting a good prospect. The question should be whether picking players who don't have stats to back up their ranking inordinately leads to success. I'd be willing to bet that isn't the case, though I don't have the time to actually put together a look into it.

I think Iain Fyffe's work at Puck Prospectus in his Pucks from the Past column is instructive on this, though: http://www.puckprospectus.com/news/?author=8. Using a model that uses G-A-P-+/- for drafting, he's constructed a team that puts to shame anything any NHL team would have done over the same period using scouts for the same picks. Yes, he has some big misses over the years, but on the whole he does well above average.
What makes you think I was arguing against using stats? I said: "I hate looking at stats and pretending like it tells us everything we need to know."

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Old
05-13-2013, 01:34 PM
  #662
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Originally Posted by Tiranis View Post
What makes you think I was arguing against using stats? I said: "I hate looking at stats and pretending like it tells us everything we need to know."
Sorry, I read that differently than you intended it. I think I just tweak when people start mentioning Milan Lucic when he's about the only player to do what he's done amongst a sea of other high picks with awful stats who ultimately flame out.

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05-13-2013, 01:35 PM
  #663
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pitseleh View Post
The idea that there is a dichotomy between stats and scouting is ridiculous. Both systematically make their own types of errors and using the other can allow you to correct for those biases. Clearly using both is better than just using one or another.



Of course there is. That's because the vast majority of prospects do nothing in the NHL and even sometimes the AHL. The question you should be asking is whether stats do a good job relative to average.

The problem with using Lucic and Saad as examples is that the issue is not whether stats (or scouting) have a 100% success rate. The problem with only looking at the successes is that all the failures will have had the same hallmarks that made teams convinced they were getting a good prospect. The question should be whether picking players who don't have stats to back up their ranking inordinately leads to success. I'd be willing to bet that isn't the case, though I don't have the time to actually put together a look into it.

I think Iain Fyffe's work at Puck Prospectus in his Pucks from the Past column is instructive on this, though: http://www.puckprospectus.com/news/?author=8. Using a model that uses G-A-P-+/- for drafting, he's constructed a team that puts to shame anything any NHL team would have done over the same period using scouts for the same picks. Yes, he has some big misses over the years, but on the whole he does well above average. The misses are where scouting could complement stats to get a more complete picture.
True enough, but +/- does nothing to tell how good a player is, especially at the junior level.

Look at Rychel's -17 or the the huge +/- totals you get on good teams. Yes statistics and analysis helps with all of these types of things, but watching and projecting to me is the best way.

How do you identify Lucic or to an even grander extent Shea Weber from another guy with similar stats?

Weber's NHL totals blow away his WHL numbers....how do you identify that through stats?

I don't believe you can.

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05-13-2013, 01:37 PM
  #664
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Originally Posted by arsmaster View Post
True enough, but +/- does nothing to tell how good a player is, especially at the junior level.

Look at Rychel's -17 or the the huge +/- totals you get on good teams. Yes statistics and analysis helps with all of these types of things, but watching and projecting to me is the best way.

How do you identify Lucic or to an even grander extent Shea Weber from another guy with similar stats?

Weber's NHL totals blow away his WHL numbers....how do you identify that through stats?

I don't believe you can.
I think the argument is that you can get a higher batting average using the model described than by whatever means the GMs used. You might miss out on Lucic and Weber but you'll make up for it by finding other guys.

Quote:
Originally Posted by pitseleh View Post
Sorry, I read that differently than you intended it. I think I just tweak when people start mentioning Milan Lucic when he's about the only player to do what he's done amongst a sea of other high picks with awful stats who ultimately flame out.
I'm a big proponent of using stats in hockey and even with how primitive they are at the moment, I think they're still massively under-utilized compared to the potential pay-off from using them. Just don't think you can boil down a discussion about prospects down to stats alone. At the same time, I hate when people make a million excuses for guys based on intangibles and how they look when they have completely disappointing stats while being put in a good situation.

Corey Pronman's obsession with Kirill Kabanov always reminds me of the latter. As recently as this year he had him in his Top 50 prospects.

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05-13-2013, 01:44 PM
  #665
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Originally Posted by arsmaster View Post
True enough, but +/- does nothing to tell how good a player is, especially at the junior level.

Look at Rychel's -17 or the the huge +/- totals you get on good teams. Yes statistics and analysis helps with all of these types of things, but watching and projecting to me is the best way.
You have to adjust +/- for context, most definitely (which is what I believe Fyffe did).

Quote:
How do you identify Lucic or to an even grander extent Shea Weber from another guy with similar stats?

Weber's NHL totals blow away his WHL numbers....how do you identify that through stats?

I don't believe you can.
I don't think scouts can either. If they could have, neither of those players would have gone as low as they did. The problem is, teams are missing low hanging fruit by not just going after the best producers at lower level (which would invariably bring them more success than they currently have) instead of trying to find the diamond in the rough.

Why worry about the one in a thousand chance that you miss out on a Lucic or a Weber when you can significantly reduce the chances you miss out on the Henrik Zetterbergs and Dan Boyles? There are far more quality players who get missed each year because teams mostly ignore lower level stats than there are players like Lucic and Weber (who I think is a lesser example, because his stats at the very least pegged him as a reasonable second rounder who looked like he could be a solid stay-at-home guy) who don't produce until after getting drafted relatively high.

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05-13-2013, 03:35 PM
  #666
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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
Of course trying to stat compare across two different leagues is pretty useless. But Rychel last year significantly out scored Erne as well. Rychel is pretty obviously the better goal scorer. I can definitely see where he's coming from, where Erne's maximum upside is probably someone like Ryan Callahan, while Rychel has the potential to be a more prolific goal scorer.

Of course, I like Mantha better than either, as a player can't decide when they were born. He scored the most goals in the Q this year. Regardless of whether he were drafted last year or this year, that's a pretty impressive accomplishment.
Id be thrilled at getting Anthony Mantha,,as he has my dads last name,,that would be cool.But id love to see Gillis or whoever is in charge of this years draft,make that (bold) move.This is a deep draft to make a statment.Ok MG time to grow some stones now.

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05-13-2013, 05:54 PM
  #667
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So should we play, which Goaltender with the Canucks draft this year?? Who are some of your pics?

My thinking is the Canucks will probably wait till the 5th round. Maybe take a Finnish goaltender Ville Husso or Juuse Saros. I think Ville is the back-up but Juuse is smallish.... What guesses are out there??

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05-13-2013, 06:58 PM
  #668
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Of the guys we are discussing and how I am feeling right now:
-Lazar
-Erne
-Horvat (I see these as my top 3, and its very equal)

-Zykov (Probably deserves to be in that top group, but i just haven't seen enough of him)
-Domi
-Klimchuk
-Wennberg
-Morrissey
-Gauthier
-Petan
-Hartman
-Rychel
-Mantha
-Compher


And beyond seeding, that has a lot to do with the prospects available in this draft? I said I am on a draft news binge, not an NHL binge!
That's awesome! Thank you!

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Old
05-13-2013, 08:19 PM
  #669
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We need Hockey IQ, Positioning and Passing % stats

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05-13-2013, 09:49 PM
  #670
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first round is over. Where do we draft?

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05-13-2013, 09:55 PM
  #671
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we are currently slated to pick 24th.

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05-13-2013, 09:56 PM
  #672
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first round is over. Where do we draft?
Too soon, need to wait until the 2nd round is over. Need Pittsburgh and/or Chicago to lose to move up.

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05-13-2013, 09:59 PM
  #673
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Horvat opened the scoring tonight and scored the winner with 0.1 seconds left in the game to take the OHL championship. Onto the Memorial Cup!

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05-13-2013, 10:04 PM
  #674
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Horvat opened the scoring tonight and scored the winner with 0.1 seconds left in the game to take the OHL championship. Onto the Memorial Cup!
2nd year in a row.

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Old
05-13-2013, 10:11 PM
  #675
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We need Hockey IQ, Positioning and Passing % stats
No we need physical tools who look great in practice you can fix their questionable IQs

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