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04-07-2013, 04:25 PM
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Appleyard
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Drafting goaltenders

After doing the stats for the draft overall a few days back, several people proposed looking only at goaltenders, so here goes.

I looked at the draft from 1980-2002 (last year data could really be reliable) and looked which goaltenders in each round got to 100GP, 200GP, 400GP, 600GP and All star apps. This took into consideration the 561 goaltenders drafted in that time.

I also broke it down further to positions of 1-10, 11-20 etc up to 120. Each bracket had 20-30 players in, apart from the first two, with 12 in one and 8 in another.

Round by round:

1st Round:

100GP: 56.8%
200GP: 50%
400GP: 27.3%
600GP: 20.5%
All-Star: 25%

2nd Round

100GP: 37.5%
200GP: 34.4%
400GP: 18.8%
600GP: 12.5%
All-Star: 15.6%

3rd Round

100GP: 28.8%
200GP: 19.7%
400GP: 9.1%
600GP: 1.5%
All-Star: 4.5%

4th Round

100GP: 16.7%
200GP: 15.3%
400GP: 5.6%
600GP: 4.2%
All-Star: 8.3%

5th Round Onwards:

100GP: 12.4%
200GP: 8.3%
400GP: 3.8%
600GP: 2.5%
All-Star: 4.8%

So... don't pick a goalie in the 3rd round! Though only the lack of Allstars and +600 sways it... overall teams seem to draft pretty well, and in fact drafting a goalie has more chance of being an all star in every round than other players (if compared to my value of draft pick thread.)

Though a safer bet in first two rounds for a useful to 1st line NHLer is a defenseman or forward. Goalies are more likely to boom or bust.

Also the chance of getting a great goalie later (5th to 7th) is almost double compared to defense-men and forwards, though even if comparing to useful to good NHLers goalies are safer in later rounds (2% all star forwards and D to 4.8% netminders, 3.5% 700GP F&D t0 3.8% 400GP Netminder, 6.8% 400GP F&D to 8.3% 200GP netminder)

So really a 5th-7th round pick of a goalie is better value than a forward or D, even though the chances are both low, 1/50 out-ice player, 1/20 goaltender.

In Depth:

1st Round

1-10: 100 GP: 75%, 200 GP: 58.3%, 400 GP: 41.7%, 600 GP: 25%, All-Star: 33.3%
11-20: 100 GP: 62.5%, 200 GP: 62.5%, 400 GP: 50%, 600 GP: 37.5%, All-Star: 37.5%
21-30: 100 GP: 45.8%, 200 GP: 41.7%, 400 GP: 12.5%, 600 GP: 12.5%, All-Star: 16.7%

2nd Round

31-40: 100 GP: 44.4%, 200 GP: 33.3%, 400 GP: 27.8%, 600 GP: 16.7%, All-Star: 16.7%
41-50: 100 GP: 35%, 200 GP: 35%, 400 GP: 15%, 600 GP: 5%, All-Star: 5%
51-60: 100 GP: 34.6%, 200 GP: 34.6%, 400 GP: 15.4%, 600 GP: 15.3%, All-Star: 23%

3rd Round

61-70: 100 GP: 47.4%, 200 GP: 21.1%, 400 GP: 10.5%, 600 GP: 0%, All-Star: 5.3%
71-80: 100 GP: 31.8%, 200 GP: 27.3%, 400 GP: 9.1%, 600 GP: 4.5%, All-Star: 9.1%
81-90: 100 GP: 12%, 200 GP: 12%, 400 GP: 8%, 600 GP: 0%, All-Star: 0%

4th Round

91-100: 100 GP: 15.8%, 200 GP: 10.5%, 400 GP: 0%, 600 GP: 0%, All-Star: 5.3%
101-110: 100 GP: 10.3%, 200 GP: 10.3%, 400 GP: 3.4%, 600 GP: 3.4%, All-Star: 3.4%
111-120: 100 GP: 25%, 200 GP: 25%, 400 GP: 12.5%, 600 GP: 8.3%, All-Star: 16.7%

So while drafting earlier usually gets a better player, the risk is far higher of a bust than when drafting forwards and D, and seemingly just pick in the 111-120 range to get a good keeper! Pretty big outlier really. And while the later you draft the less chance of a useful NHL player, the chance of getting a great starter does not really vary too much after the 2nd round.

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04-07-2013, 04:29 PM
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LegionOfDoom91
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It seems like a trend lately in drafting top goalies is drafting them later in the 1st and early in the 2nd.

There's really no guys getting drafted high like Fleury and Price anymore. With the unpredictability of goaltenders it makes sense.

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04-07-2013, 04:31 PM
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Appleyard
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LegionOfDoom91 View Post
It seems like a trend lately in drafting top goalies is drafting them later in the 1st and early in the 2nd.

There's really no guys getting drafted high like Fleury and Price. With the unpredictability of goaltenders it makes sense.
The odds indicate that if you drafted 5 goalies in the 5th-7th there is the same chance one becomes an all star as 1 goalie with a 1st round pick, makes sense not to chance a first.

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04-07-2013, 04:37 PM
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MP92
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Appleyard View Post
The odds indicate that if you drafted 5 goalies in the 5th-7th there is the same chance one becomes an all star as 1 goalie with a 1st round pick, makes sense not to chance a first.
Maybe the Flyers should do that this upcoming draft. Just throw a bunch of crap against the wall. Some of it has to stick.

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04-07-2013, 04:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SCOREacek View Post
Maybe the Flyers should do that this upcoming draft. Just throw a bunch of crap against the wall. Some of it has to stick.
Most of the 'star' goalies in the league were picked well into the 100's... if not later, but it is literally a crapshoot...

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04-07-2013, 04:42 PM
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LegionOfDoom91
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Only goalie worthy of a 1st round selection this year is Zachary Fucale. He'll probably go higher than expected because the drop from him to next the goalie is pretty big. It's a weak year for goaltenders overall this draft.

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04-07-2013, 05:09 PM
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The 51-60 All Star chances are quite an odd spike.

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04-07-2013, 08:19 PM
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What these stats confirm for me is how hard goalies are to guage. Only half of the goalies drafted in the first round make it to 200 games and less then 60 percent even make it to 100

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04-07-2013, 08:24 PM
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Krishna
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jd2210 View Post
What these stats confirm for me is how hard goalies are to guage. Only half of the goalies drafted in the first round make it to 200 games and less then 60 percent even make it to 100
That's still a good bit of games for a goalie. The 200 that is. As a starter, that's about 3-4 seasons

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04-07-2013, 10:48 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LegionOfDoom91 View Post
Only goalie worthy of a 1st round selection this year is Zachary Fucale. He'll probably go higher than expected because the drop from him to next the goalie is pretty big. It's a weak year for goaltenders overall this draft.
I'm still not sold on Fucale, just because he plays for the Mooseheads. I'm just a little hesitant that his stats are based more off his team than his presence. Comrie would be a good alternative in the lower rounds though...

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04-07-2013, 10:56 PM
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Thanks for doing this analysis.

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04-07-2013, 10:59 PM
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LegionOfDoom91
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PantherStriker View Post
I'm still not sold on Fucale, just because he plays for the Mooseheads. I'm just a little hesitant that his stats are based more off his team than his presence. Comrie would be a good alternative in the lower rounds though...
I'm not really sold on him either. The games I watched Halifax would spend the majority of the time in the opponents zone so Fucale wouldn't get tested much. Should be a good test for him next year with the possibility of Mackinnon and Drouin not being there. I still think he's the best goalie in this draft though.

Comrie was supposed to challenge Fucale going into the year but suffered a hip injury. He'll probably drop to the 4th round or later because of that. Hip problems are pretty serious for goalies especially this early in his career but if he can rebound from it like you said it could be a good value pick.

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04-08-2013, 06:06 AM
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Yeah drafting goalies high worries me unless it is a "sure-thing" type of player. I wasn't really thrilled when they drafted Stolarz last year in the second round when there were a number of guys that I thought would have been pretty solid picks at that point in the draft (Thrower, Frk). He looks good right now, but with goalies I think that means very little.

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