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Value of the MacKinnon Pick

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Old
04-08-2013, 04:19 PM
  #126
Revelate
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Originally Posted by couture23 View Post
LOL no way.

Why would we trade Vanek, who is an elite goal scorer, for someone who MIGHT be good? Plus with Grigorenko and our first? Dude...

No friggin way.
Didn't say I would. That's what I think it would take.

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04-08-2013, 04:21 PM
  #127
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Originally Posted by Petes2424 View Post
Only on HF...

People are so willing to just dish out huge packages for a prospect who's proven nothing in the NHL compared to what they'd be willing to give up for a 27-30 year old proven player in the league. Some of these offers are quite a bit larger than the Nash trade, etc.

The NHL doesnt work that way. We're not talking about the Crosby or Lecavalier draft. I know a lot of people were hoping two years ago that Mackinnon would be at the level, but he's not. He's not even at the Alexander Daigle level of cant miss drafts. He's on a line with two other great offensive talents. We're talking about a player who might not even be ready to play in the NHL next year. A player who had an up and down World Junior.

Teams arent going to be lining up to bet the farm on him. Jones on the other hand, would create much more interest.
It's not only on hf. It's really simple. If you want to move into the top 5 from outside the top 10 be prepared to overpay. It's not fair value but it is what it takes for a deal to be done.

Unless you want to point me in the direction of some recent trades where a team just moved into the top 5 from outside the top 10 for packages similar to Gardiner and a mid to late first.

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04-08-2013, 04:37 PM
  #128
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Originally Posted by blankall View Post
Very situational dependent. In most years the 4-8th range is very subjective as to who the BPA is, and you also have to take into account organizational needs.. If you are at the #4 position, but see a player at 8 you want, it makes sense to trade down, as you are going to pick that player anyways and might as well get an asset for free. Here the top 4 (and arguably top 6) all look amazing. I don't see anyone parting with those picks to end up drafting in the 20 range.
I agree completely. I was just trying to find precedent to gauge the payment. The only other two moves that I can think of were Lindros and Kessel but those were player driven trades not teams trading for a pick.

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04-08-2013, 05:43 PM
  #129
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Originally Posted by Revelate View Post
Didn't say I would. That's what I think it would take.
Thank god, even then - your proposal is still an overpayment. Grigorenko and the first are a great starting point, but we would probably keep Grigorenko.

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04-08-2013, 06:06 PM
  #130
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isles first, nielsen, de haan and one of donovan, mayfield, pedan, pelech or nino

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04-08-2013, 06:39 PM
  #131
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Inb4 bust

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04-08-2013, 06:41 PM
  #132
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Originally Posted by dm1371 View Post
Inb4 bust
well thats easy to say, it won't be determined for at least a few years

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04-08-2013, 06:59 PM
  #133
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Originally Posted by Djp View Post
I think in the LeCavalier year Tampa Bay was offered 4 1sts......it got turned down.
Rightfully so, lecavlier was hyped to by the Michael Jordan or hockey plus you don't trade a 1st overall for 4 1st.

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04-08-2013, 07:21 PM
  #134
FlyingPantherExtreme
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LEAFS FANS!

Calgary will trade you the Mackinnon pick but it will cost you

Bozak
Frattin
Komisarek
& Orr

No less or feaster walks

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04-08-2013, 07:45 PM
  #135
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The only way I see a trade like this happening is if a team needs depth more than top level offensive players is on the clock for Mackinnon. It's by no likely for teams like Carolina, Colorado, or Philly to trade, but at trade with a team like Columbus would make sense for both sides.

For example Philly needs Defense desperately (both in the pipeline and in the NHL) and could trade the Mackinnon pick for Columbus' pick and the Kings pick, which they could then use to grab Nurse and Pulock instantly revamping their D pipeline.

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04-08-2013, 07:57 PM
  #136
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Originally Posted by Petes2424 View Post
He's not even at the Alexander Daigle level of cant miss drafts.
Am I the only one who finds this statement hilarious? (Yes, I realize you are speaking of the hype and projection vs what the player became, but still, bad example when using the term can't miss ).

As far as your problem with potential asking price(s) for the pick, simple solution to those GMs that share your belief - don't bother calling. Think about a team like Calgary, who in all likelihood could be in that very draft position. You just parted ways with your first ballot HoF power forward, face of franchise, captain AND your best defenceman. The best piece(s) in both deals were 1st rders that likely fall 18-30th. The only glimmer of hope for your fans is the knowledge that they will have a new young talent with the draft pedigree that SHOULD enable that player to become a star and face of the franchise.

Would you give up the opportunity to take that player for a solid/good young player and a later 1st (which you already have 2 of)?

Would you trade back a few spots - decreasing the chance of landing a franchise player - just to gain a couple 2nds (when you already pick 2 more times in the first round)?

I really hope you answered no.

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04-08-2013, 08:14 PM
  #137
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Originally Posted by Roof Daddy View Post
Am I the only one who finds this statement hilarious? (Yes, I realize you are speaking of the hype and projection vs what the player became, but still, bad example when using the term can't miss ).

As far as your problem with potential asking price(s) for the pick, simple solution to those GMs that share your belief - don't bother calling. Think about a team like Calgary, who in all likelihood could be in that very draft position. You just parted ways with your first ballot HoF power forward, face of franchise, captain AND your best defenceman. The best piece(s) in both deals were 1st rders that likely fall 18-30th. The only glimmer of hope for your fans is the knowledge that they will have a new young talent with the draft pedigree that SHOULD enable that player to become a star and face of the franchise.

Would you give up the opportunity to take that player for a solid/good young player and a later 1st (which you already have 2 of)?

Would you trade back a few spots - decreasing the chance of landing a franchise player - just to gain a couple 2nds (when you already pick 2 more times in the first round)?

I really hope you answered no.
We all might find it hilarious now but pre draft he was just as highly touted.

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04-08-2013, 08:32 PM
  #138
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Originally Posted by Gobias Industries View Post
Sometimes I wish the tournament didn't exist so amateur scouts who enjoy sample sizes of six games didn't pass judgement on players.
Seriously. I enjoy the WJC because it's a good opportunity to see what kind of skillset a player has. It's not nearly a big enough sample size to draw any conclusions whatsoever. I'm sick of people watching a kid for 5 games and then claiming to be an expert or that how that player looked during that stretch of games will at all predict how he'll end up. Mackinnon specifically is quite underrated on this board because everyone is enamored with Drouin's hands or Jones' whatever. I still take Mack first.

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04-08-2013, 08:38 PM
  #139
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Originally Posted by Petes2424 View Post
We all might find it hilarious now but pre draft he was just as highly touted.
Yes, I realize that, which is why I put an aside in parentheses. The irony remains that of all the players you could have listed as "can't miss," you chose Daigle.

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04-08-2013, 08:57 PM
  #140
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If I was GM of the Sabres I'd offer Vanek or Miller, Grigorenko and our 1st (should be 5-8 but who knows with how tight the standings are and lottery). I think that's a pretty substantial offer. If it was someone who has centers, switch Girgorenko to Ennis if need be.

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04-08-2013, 09:01 PM
  #141
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Canes would probably trade our top 3 pick, Skinner and Pitkanen for a guy like Joe Thornton. I know we might have to add, so maybe a 2nd or Rask too?

If you ask the Canes experts over on our forum, they'll tell you we're sorely lacking a playmaker and leader, so Joe Thornton would be a perfect addition.

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04-08-2013, 09:33 PM
  #142
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheJuxtaposer View Post
Seriously. I enjoy the WJC because it's a good opportunity to see what kind of skillset a player has. It's not nearly a big enough sample size to draw any conclusions whatsoever. I'm sick of people watching a kid for 5 games and then claiming to be an expert or that how that player looked during that stretch of games will at all predict how he'll end up. Mackinnon specifically is quite underrated on this board because everyone is enamored with Drouin's hands or Jones' whatever. I still take Mack first.
I agree completely. I have seen as many bad reads based on the WJCs as good. IMO, it is all about the greater body of work. Worlds can lie, and as an Islander fan they lead to DP over Luongo per Milbury. Ugh.

IMO, MacKinnon is a great player, and his skills work as a perfect match for Tavares, and visa versa. That's why I started this thread, just to get an idea of what the HF cloud thought would be the price to acquire him.

I actually have yet to see anyone put a hard/generic value on it in terms of picks and players, such as 3-1sts & 2 great prospects & 2 players, etc.

He may be unattainable, but either way would like to see what the cost would probably be.

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04-08-2013, 09:37 PM
  #143
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dkollidas View Post
If I was GM of the Sabres I'd offer Vanek or Miller, Grigorenko and our 1st (should be 5-8 but who knows with how tight the standings are and lottery). I think that's a pretty substantial offer. If it was someone who has centers, switch Girgorenko to Ennis if need be.
Thank god your not a GM. That is the most ridiculous trade proposal I've ever seen on HF.

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04-08-2013, 09:57 PM
  #144
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Originally Posted by visor wearing goon View Post
Canes would probably trade our top 3 pick, Skinner and Pitkanen for a guy like Joe Thornton. I know we might have to add, so maybe a 2nd or Rask too?

If you ask the Canes experts over on our forum, they'll tell you we're sorely lacking a playmaker and leader, so Joe Thornton would be a perfect addition.
Wait a second.
Drouin/Mac/Jones , Skinner and Pitkanen for Joe Thornton??

Holy crap. I don't think the San Jose GM could keep a straight face if you offered that package. He would probably kiss you.
You just gifted him a lifetime extension.

I love JT but Jesus.....

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04-08-2013, 10:25 PM
  #145
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So lets try to inject some sense into this thread.

There are three types of returns a top 3 pick could get, not including the standard multiple picks to move up type of deal.

Type 1 is the HF boards favorite: a few good but not elite prospects and a late first for a top 3 pick.

This deal has almost no chance of happening. The team picking in the top 3 is not going to trade for a few prospects who have already shown they don't have the potential of the guy they can get at the top of the draft. If a team is bad enough to be picking at the top, they most likely need an impact player. Not a bunch of solid guys. Solid just gets you back to mediocrity, and every gm knows how useless mediocrity is.

Type 2 is the young stud player for the pick straight up.
The reason these trades don't happen is because the team with the player has already invested a bunch of time and effort Into developing said player, and they aren't going to trade him for an unknown quantity. If they are willing to do it, that should be a major red flag. One of the most underrated things on this board is the amount of time a player spends developing with an organization. Every day there are a bunch of threads made that are nothing more than an attempt to swap upper level prospects. There is a reason these trades rarely happen. Teams put a ton of value into a player spending a year developing in that organizations system and getting on that teams off ice training program. There is a reason trades like Huberdeau for galychenyuk don't even get discussed by GM's despite how much sense the trade made for both franchises in terms of marketing and team needs.

So that leaves us with one kind of deal. The just past his peak star signed for a big deal who has worn out his welcome in his current city. While these trades make a ton of sense marketing wise. One team gets a guy who sells tickets, the other gets a young guy on a cheap contract, the reality is that the team with the pick is more than just 1 great player from competing. By the time they have developed/acquired the right talent to support the star, he's over the hill and a shell of his former self.

I know every team would love to add a top 3 pick to their team every year, but the reality is that these trades are really tough to complete. There is more than just coming up with fair value, you have to meet a teams needs, and its extremely unlikely that a team like the Blackhawks or flyers have the pieces a team like Florida or Calgary are looking for in order to do a deal.

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04-08-2013, 10:34 PM
  #146
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Originally Posted by dkollidas View Post
If I was GM of the Sabres I'd offer Vanek or Miller, Grigorenko and our 1st (should be 5-8 but who knows with how tight the standings are and lottery). I think that's a pretty substantial offer. If it was someone who has centers, switch Girgorenko to Ennis if need be.
Call Eatster ASAP! Flames do that deal

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04-08-2013, 10:48 PM
  #147
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Originally Posted by Beezeral View Post

Type 2 is the young stud player for the pick straight up.
The reason these trades don't happen is because the team with the player has already invested a bunch of time and effort Into developing said player, and they aren't going to trade him for an unknown quantity. If they are willing to do it, that should be a major red flag. One of the most underrated things on this board is the amount of time a player spends developing with an organization. Every day there are a bunch of threads made that are nothing more than an attempt to swap upper level prospects. There is a reason these trades rarely happen. Teams put a ton of value into a player spending a year developing in that organizations system and getting on that teams off ice training program. There is a reason trades like Huberdeau for galychenyuk don't even get discussed by GM's despite how much sense the trade made for both franchises in terms of marketing and team needs.
The Huberdeau for Galychenyuk makes logical sense and isnt much of a reach to pull something like that off. The key is you have to do it before players start to show full NHL potential.

Buffalo made the trade with Vancouver similar to this proposed trade where they traded Kassain to Vancouver for Hodgson. They were picked at roughly the same spot in the draft in consecutive years.

Last year was the first NHL play for both players. They traded the players for the perception of depth need. Buffalo felt they were fine with wingers but needed a center.

This is where these traded make sense when you are strong at one position in terms of youth players but are short at another position.

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04-08-2013, 10:48 PM
  #148
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Kessel + Leafs 1st for Mackinnon + 2nd rounder

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Old
04-08-2013, 11:14 PM
  #149
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Originally Posted by TheJuxtaposer View Post
Seriously. I enjoy the WJC because it's a good opportunity to see what kind of skillset a player has. It's not nearly a big enough sample size to draw any conclusions whatsoever. I'm sick of people watching a kid for 5 games and then claiming to be an expert or that how that player looked during that stretch of games will at all predict how he'll end up. Mackinnon specifically is quite underrated on this board because everyone is enamored with Drouin's hands or Jones' whatever. I still take Mack first.
Why?

There's a reason the scouting services disagree with you but I'd like to hear your reasoning on why Mackinnon should be drafted over Jones' "whatever"... Personally I think there's 1 top player in this draft and 1 guy just beneath him and then 4 players you could flip a coin on. Mackinnon is one of those players. I wouldnt be surprised if he fell to 5 or 6.

His size is going to play against him. 6 ft my rear but we can argue that some other time. Some of his strengths in the QMJHL are going to be questioned at higher levels. He's not afraid to go into the dirty areas but those areas are a lot dirtier in the NHL and can he do it with his size and frame. His vision is second to none but he certainly has the comfort of playing with Frk and Drouin. Two other players who read the ice extremely well. There's also the "Q" hanging over his head. It's really going to depend on who has the picks 3-6 and how they play out. Nurse is climbing the charts and if a team is sitting at 4 with a choice of Mackinnon, Nurse or Barkov and they're a forward heavy team (Edmonton) what would they do?

It's not out of the possibility he falls to 5 or 6. Barkov and Nichushkin have NHL preferred size and some teams are going to weigh that in comparison. Size is a huge advantage, like it or not. If the other attributes are even or just slightly below, but one guy's 2-4 inches taller with a bigger frame, 9 times out of 10, the team's going to draft the bigger player. Just the way it goes. It wont come into play with Drouin because his skillset is just simply better than the other 3 guys.

The worst thing to happen to Mackinnon was being as good as he was at 15. The Crosby comparisons and the expectations just got out of hand. It seems he's leveling out some while others continue to mature. It happens all the time. Look at the way Domi has matured this year.

It'll be interesting to see what teams think in that 3-6 range.

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04-09-2013, 12:04 AM
  #150
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There is no way Leafs get a third over-all pick for Gardiner and their 1st.

Would any Leafs' fans be happy with that package if the shoe was on the other foot? I doubt it. Gardiner is a good piece, but he is not a 'franchise' player. The Toronto 1st would have to have a ridiculous amount of luck to draft a franchise player with.

Teams need as much elite talent as possible to win championships, imo. Calgary will not trade that pick for all the owski's in the world if they end up with it after the season/lottery. The fanbase would revolt, and rightfully so. It would seriously take a ridiculous over-payment and it just wouldn't be worth it.

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