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How will the Canes do this season?

View Poll Results: Where will the Canes finish?
Top 3 in east? 2 2.60%
Comfortably in the playoffs? 1 1.30%
Bubble team, but just make it in? 7 9.09%
Bubble team, but miss out? 20 25.97%
Top 5 pick in draft. 47 61.04%
Voters: 77. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
10-02-2014, 12:36 PM
  #1
Boom Boom Anton
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How will the Canes do this season?

With just over a week until the opener and the roster mostly set, time again for the annual poll. How will the Canes do this regular season?

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Old
10-02-2014, 12:47 PM
  #2
w e l o s t b o y s
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relegated

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Old
10-02-2014, 12:47 PM
  #3
halleJOKEL
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relegation candidates

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Old
10-02-2014, 01:04 PM
  #4
What the Faulk
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Anyone who goes to the FB board a lot knows I'm not captain optimism over there. I like to think I can toe the line of neutrality when it comes to realistic expectations. I honestly think this team isn't nearly as bad as everyone continues to make it out to be. Look around the rosters at the Metro. I mean REALLY give it an unbiased look. Is anyone besides Pittsburgh significantly better? It'd be hard for me to say yes, to anyone.

And beyond that, injuries don't just happen to Carolina, but they also happen to other teams. Where would the Flyers be without Giroux? The Jackets are already getting hit pretty hard. What if the Rangers lose another player? Not sure anyone can survive a significant hit, maybe not even Pittsbugh if Sid or Malkin go down.

Even looking at Carolina in a bubble, they were not nearly as bad as they played last year (most people). Only Sekera and maybe Hainsey hit a level we're not sure if they can reach again. Everyone else either hit in line with their career play (with more sample size, like Khudobin, Gerbe), continued developing (Faulk, Skinner), or simply were unsustainably bad (pretty much everyone else). Then you have guys like Murphy, Lindholm, Rask and maybe Nash and Boychuk who are complete wild cards (in a good way if Jordan were healthy).

Then there's the coach. Kirk Muller made some really bad strategic decisions pretty much over the last season and a half he was here. Bill Peters seems more prepared and like he has his **** together. At worst, I can't seeing him being a lesser coach than Muller.

If they can tread water until Jordan gets back, that'll be like a free trade. I think that can be a nice bump. Then maybe another one at the deadline. Boom, playoffs.

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10-02-2014, 01:15 PM
  #5
tarheelhockey
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So we are looking at Jordan's injury as a "free trade" bonus for half the season rather than losing arguably our best center for half a season?

I mean, that's about as rosy as glasses can possibly get.

We're debating whether Riley Nash or Viktor Rask will take the place of the guy who skated the hardest minutes on a bad team. Everything about this situation spells total disaster.

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10-02-2014, 01:18 PM
  #6
halleJOKEL
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it will be a miracle if we win a game

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Old
10-02-2014, 01:28 PM
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OK, yes, other teams would also be hurt if they lost one of the best players on the team due to injury. But that's not happened to them. It's happened to us. So I don't see what bringing up Giroux or Crosby has to do with anything.

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10-02-2014, 01:30 PM
  #8
urho
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Last season, I was hoping for a playoff spot and we were horrendous most of the time. This season I'm assuming we're horrendous. Could it work other way around?

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10-02-2014, 01:30 PM
  #9
Stephen Goalbert
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Old
10-02-2014, 01:31 PM
  #10
What the Faulk
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tarheelhockey View Post
So we are looking at Jordan's injury as a "free trade" bonus for half the season rather than losing arguably our best center for half a season?

I mean, that's about as rosy as glasses can possibly get.

We're debating whether Riley Nash or Viktor Rask will take the place of the guy who skated the hardest minutes on a bad team. Everything about this situation spells total disaster.
Because we're now gauging this team as is, without him. As good as he was, he's only scored 71 points since coming to Carolina. 40 last year. I think that's doable for Nash if he plays with Skinner and Lindholm a ton. Plus the PP and PK still haven't been very good. The only place to go is up.

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Old
10-02-2014, 01:32 PM
  #11
What the Faulk
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blueline Bomber View Post
OK, yes, other teams would also be hurt if they lost one of the best players on the team due to injury. But that's not happened to them. It's happened to us. So I don't see what bringing up Giroux or Crosby has to do with anything.
And the other teams I mentioned (playoff teams) that got hit with their own injuries, or lost players to contract situations?

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10-02-2014, 01:37 PM
  #12
halleJOKEL
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Quote:
Originally Posted by What the Faulk View Post
Because we're now gauging this team as is, without him. As good as he was, he's only scored 71 points since coming to Carolina. 40 last year. I think that's doable for Nash if he plays with Skinner and Lindholm a ton. Plus the PP and PK still haven't been very good. The only place to go is up.
40 pts

-70

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Old
10-02-2014, 01:46 PM
  #13
dmonk
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This poll doesn't have a word 'serious' in it's title.. As a result I'll treat it as such.

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10-02-2014, 01:59 PM
  #14
tarheelhockey
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Quote:
Originally Posted by What the Faulk View Post
Because we're now gauging this team as is, without him. As good as he was, he's only scored 71 points since coming to Carolina. 40 last year. I think that's doable for Nash if he plays with Skinner and Lindholm a ton. Plus the PP and PK still haven't been very good. The only place to go is up.
I hate to get all fancy-stats about something that's just going to play out in a couple of weeks anyway, but this is the substitution we're going to make until January:

PlayerTOI/60Corsi RelCorsi Rel QoCO-zone start %O-zone finish %On-ice shot%SH TOI/GPP TOI/GPoints
Jordan Staal14.5012.01.07550.350.95.441:372:1540
Riley Nash10.85-0.4-0.15859.350.47.180:450:4724 (career high)

Nash is utterly, utterly unqualified to take Jordan's place. Like, to the point that it's unfair to even ask him to be the sacrificial lamb in this situation. This will not be a case like Pitkanen where we kind of forget we were missing a guy because someone else smoothly steps into his role. This will be a case where we get ripped to shreds by teams who actually have 2 or 3 good centers and pound the puck mercilessly down the middle against a guy who didn't even inspire confidence on the 3rd line.

And the alternative is Viktor Rask, the guy who recently won a runoff vote to capture the #5 spot on our organizational prospect list.

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Old
10-02-2014, 02:01 PM
  #15
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I picked "Top 3" because I assumed it meant "Top 3 in the Draft"

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10-02-2014, 02:05 PM
  #16
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The team will hold things together for short stretches, but ultimately go on a few bad streaks that doom the season. As usual.

A top 5 pick is very possible, but they'll find a way to **** it up with meaningless points at the end of the season. Again, as usual.

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Old
10-02-2014, 02:09 PM
  #17
wallym
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tarheelhockey View Post
I hate to get all fancy-stats about something that's just going to play out in a couple of weeks anyway, but this is the substitution we're going to make until January:

PlayerTOI/60Corsi RelCorsi Rel QoCO-zone start %O-zone finish %On-ice shot%SH TOI/GPP TOI/GPoints
Jordan Staal14.5012.01.07550.350.95.441:372:1540
Riley Nash10.85-0.4-0.15859.350.47.180:450:4724 (career high)

Nash is utterly, utterly unqualified to take Jordan's place. Like, to the point that it's unfair to even ask him to be the sacrificial lamb in this situation. This will not be a case like Pitkanen where we kind of forget we were missing a guy because someone else smoothly steps into his role. This will be a case where we get ripped to shreds by teams who actually have 2 or 3 good centers and pound the puck mercilessly down the middle against a guy who didn't even inspire confidence on the 3rd line.

And the alternative is Viktor Rask, the guy who recently won a runoff vote to capture the #5 spot on our organizational prospect list.
McClement will be taking much of Jordan's defensive responsibilities. Tlusty/Eric/Semin will be taking the strength against strength responsibilities.

All that will be asked of Skinner/Nash/Lindholm is to score goals. So they'll be taking a very small portion of the Jordan job, even if you call them the 2nd line. I think what will be asked of them is to score like a scoring line, instead of the Jeff Skinner and two bums line pick on 3rd pairings line.

(all a guess, of course)

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10-02-2014, 02:17 PM
  #18
halleJOKEL
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so mcclement's line will just get railroaded instead, got it

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10-02-2014, 02:38 PM
  #19
tarheelhockey
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wallym View Post
McClement will be taking much of Jordan's defensive responsibilities.
Which is problematic because McClement doesn't have Jordan's ability to move the puck to the other end, nor does he have a linemate like Gerbe who can back off defenders a bit. McClement is a good player but we are putting him in a really bad spot if we're asking him to go up against the likes of Crosby and Giroux every single night.

Quote:
Tlusty/Eric/Semin will be taking the strength against strength responsibilities.
This contradicts the idea of having McClement play against opposing top lines.

Also, 50% of the time we don't get to pick matchups anyway. We get to be on the receiving end of how opposing coaches want to play it.

Quote:
All that will be asked of Skinner/Nash/Lindholm is to score goals.
No line in the NHL functions that way successfully. If these guys are going to be a true scoring line, then they will face top-end defenders who can transition the puck and force them to defend. If they are supposed to go up against only the weakest opponents, then they will get limited ice time and force us to overplay our bottom-6.

To put it simply -- Nash and Lindholm aren't good enough to do what is being asked of them. They are going to lose this battle most nights.

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10-02-2014, 02:47 PM
  #20
Identity404
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This is what I expect to happen:
I think they will hover around .500 most of the year.

GM RF will feel like the team has a shot at the playoffs at the trade deadline "We are only 6 points out (with 5 teams to leap over with games in hand)" and not sell assets to tank.

We will end up finishing somewhere in the bottom 10 in the league, but right at the cusp of drafting a top tier player.

Rise and Repeat.

This is what I am hoping will happen:

We will hover around .500 most of the year. Jordan comes back and pushes us to secure a wildcard spot.

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Old
10-02-2014, 03:17 PM
  #21
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I just took a long look at the schedule and overall it is going to be very tough.....even under the best of circumstances. Yet, I believe this team has the talent to succeed and get into the playoffs if a few things go our way:
  1. We get through December no worse than 1 game below .500
  2. The team buys into Coach Peters' system
  3. Eric, Alex, Jeff, and Jiri return to their career averages scoring-wise
  4. The defense proves to be "middle of the pack"
  5. Goal tending averages less than 3 goals/game

Yeah, I know this is a lot of things going right, but I think that the first 4 will actually happen. Its the last one that I'm concerned about. I will say, I thought Cam looked slightly better recently and I think Friday's game tells us a lot.

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10-02-2014, 03:21 PM
  #22
Stephen Goalbert
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10-02-2014, 03:28 PM
  #23
DaveG
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Before the injury to Jordan I was saying "bubble, most likely missing but COULD make the playoffs". Now I'm saying "bubble, but if literally ANYTHING else goes wrong we're getting a top 5 if not top 3 pick"

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10-02-2014, 03:41 PM
  #24
Lazyking
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I'm with Dave G. Any other bigtime player goes down, hello lottery

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Old
10-02-2014, 04:19 PM
  #25
wallym
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tarheelhockey View Post
Which is problematic because McClement doesn't have Jordan's ability to move the puck to the other end, nor does he have a linemate like Gerbe who can back off defenders a bit. McClement is a good player but we are putting him in a really bad spot if we're asking him to go up against the likes of Crosby and Giroux every single night.



This contradicts the idea of having McClement play against opposing top lines.

Also, 50% of the time we don't get to pick matchups anyway. We get to be on the receiving end of how opposing coaches want to play it.
There are two parts. There's the top vs. top, and sending out for big dzone draws. I think Jordan did a lot of both. McClement and Eric's lines are going to share those responsibilities. I also think the possibility of Gerbe playing with McClement could be a thing. I'd expect Gerbe/McC/Dwyer if they are playing 3rd line minutes. And it is a bad spot to put Jay in, but there is no alternative.


Quote:
No line in the NHL functions that way successfully. If these guys are going to be a true scoring line, then they will face top-end defenders who can transition the puck and force them to defend. If they are supposed to go up against only the weakest opponents, then they will get limited ice time and force us to overplay our bottom-6.

To put it simply -- Nash and Lindholm aren't good enough to do what is being asked of them. They are going to lose this battle most nights.
That's exactly what the 3rd line did last year with Skinner/Nash/???. They'll be getting slightly better competition than last year, but Lindholm should be better.

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