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10 Active NHL Stars Who Will Be First-Ballot Hall of Famers

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04-14-2013, 06:30 PM
  #1
MuzikMachine
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10 Active NHL Stars Who Will Be First-Ballot Hall of Famers

I found an article in Bleacher Report talking about 10 Active NHL Stars Who Will be First-Ballot Hall of Famers. If you don't want to read the entire article/slideshow, the list is:
  • Daniel Alfredson
  • Marin Brodeur
  • Sergei Gonchar
  • Marian Hossa
  • Jarome Iginla
  • Jaromir Jagr
  • Chris Pronger
  • Martin St. Louis
  • Teemu Selanne
  • Joe Thorton

Considering the source, it shouldn't be surprisng that this list has some weak entries. As for first-ballot HOF, it's probably be safe to include Broduer, Iginla, Jagr, Pronger, and Selanne. Debatable HOF’ers could be Alfredson and possibly Thorton (his reputation for weak playoff performances would hurt his chances), but the rest would probably be considered very good/non-HOF type players.

What are your thoughts? Are there any players on that list where if they retired tomorrow, would bump anyone on that list (maybe Crosby or Datsyuk)?

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04-14-2013, 06:57 PM
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Ishdul
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Thornton is not debatable. Gonchar won't get in at all.

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04-14-2013, 06:58 PM
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WarriorOfGandhi
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Gonchar? Really?

and to answer the OP's question, yes, Crosby would make the HHOF if he retired tomorrow and would bump Hossa and maybe Alfredsson. So too would Malkin and Ovechkin. Stamkos with 2x Rockets and 2x 2nd Team AS (likely 3 of each by season's end) would make an interesting argument.

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04-14-2013, 07:04 PM
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reckoning
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I don't see how Gonchar got listed instead of Crosby, Datsyuk, Ovechkin, Malkin, Elias or over a dozen other better players. If they were looking for another defenceman on the list, wouldn't Chara be the obvious choice?

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04-14-2013, 07:12 PM
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vadim sharifijanov
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bleacher report? that's worse than reading the hockey analysis on puck daddy, or even grantland. (no disrespect to the venerable sean mcindoe.)

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04-14-2013, 07:21 PM
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Originally Posted by MuzikMachine View Post
I found an article in Bleacher Report talking about 10 Active NHL Stars Who Will be First-Ballot Hall of Famers. If you don't want to read the entire article/slideshow, the list is:
  • Daniel Alfredson
  • Marin Brodeur
  • Sergei Gonchar
  • Marian Hossa
  • Jarome Iginla
  • Jaromir Jagr
  • Chris Pronger
  • Martin St. Louis
  • Teemu Selanne
  • Joe Thorton

Considering the source, it shouldn't be surprisng that this list has some weak entries. As for first-ballot HOF, it's probably be safe to include Broduer, Iginla, Jagr, Pronger, and Selanne. Debatable HOF’ers could be Alfredson and possibly Thorton (his reputation for weak playoff performances would hurt his chances), but the rest would probably be considered very good/non-HOF type players.

What are your thoughts? Are there any players on that list where if they retired tomorrow, would bump anyone on that list (maybe Crosby or Datsyuk)?
I would include Ovechkin before about half of that list, just based on his first five seasons. Say Pronger hs a miraculous recovery and plays for the Flyers in the playoffs, wins the Cup, and retires; as do Jagr, Selanne, Ovechkin, and Brodeur. Selanne is the only player I see Ovechkin potentially beating from that group based on "retiring right now", and it's pretty much a toss up. Ovechkin has clearly established that he is the better player, but as he's only a handful of years in he doesn't necessarily have the career value when compared to Selanne.

Malkin is another who has established significant career value in a short period. I'd argue that he has better HHOF chances than Crosby if they both retired this second despite the prevailing "Crosby>Malkin" over the past few years. Very much like Selanne/Kariya or Sakic/Forsberg, in fact. One was considered the superior player, but injury issues precluded him from excelling to his maximum (and ultimately pushed him out of the league). The other had some injury problems, but generally was able to remain healthy and to dominate. Sakic/Forsberg is actually a very close example... many people considered Foppa the "clear cut" best player, and the two played together on the PP only (except for about a season or so under Bob Hartley).

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04-14-2013, 07:21 PM
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Wrath
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Originally Posted by vadim sharifijanov View Post
bleacher report? that's worse than reading the hockey analysis on puck daddy, or even grantland. (no disrespect to the venerable sean mcindoe.)
Yeah, bleacher report is laughably biased and written pretty much entirely by fans.


Anyways, Thornton and St. Louis can probably go under the "definite" list of 1st ballot hall of famers unless they retire on a very strong year. Alfredsson and Hossa a tier below (doubtful first round possible later round HOFers), and I don't see Gonchar in the HOF.

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04-14-2013, 07:25 PM
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Bleacher Report is the Dale Purinton of hockey journalism.

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04-14-2013, 07:34 PM
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Bleacher Report is the Dale Purinton of hockey journalism.
Now that is funny....

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04-14-2013, 07:54 PM
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pdd
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Originally Posted by reckoning View Post
I don't see how Gonchar got listed instead of Crosby, Datsyuk, Ovechkin, Malkin, Elias or over a dozen other better players. If they were looking for another defenceman on the list, wouldn't Chara be the obvious choice?
Maybe because Gonchar is close to retirement, and they think he'll slip in on the first try during a weak year while others might not?

What if Ovechkin, Crosby, Malkin, Datsyuk, Elias, and Chara all retired at the end of this season?

They can't all go first ballot if that happens. Crosby v. Malkin v. Datsyuk is interesting enough, before you consider guys like Makarov, Joseph, etc. who have been waiting and deserve to be in who might not be at that point. Twelve players would be inducted between now and then; who would be the most deserving? We already know Shanahan has a decent chance to go in this year (as the #4 to Chelios, Niedermayer, and Blake), and if he doesn't return to hockey for 2013-14 or 2014-15, we'll see Sergei Fedorov in the hall for the class of 2015, alongside Nicklas Lidstrom (and probably Pronger) who will be inducted that year. Dominik Hasek is slated for the class of 2014. Mark Recchi and Mike Modano are probably already locked in next to him. And that's just guys who are basically guaranteed their spots. That's six players of twelve. But there isn't a huge logjam of borderline guys or HHOF-worthy guys; I'd say Makarov, Lindros, Kariya, and Nicholls are all guys who belong. Zubov is another guy who doesn't get the credit he deserves; IMHO he was better than Niedermayer. He's also the only "same-era" defenseman who can match or come close to Lidstrom's career PPG.

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04-14-2013, 08:02 PM
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Originally Posted by Wrath View Post
I don't see Gonchar in the HOF.
Before Scott Stevens' final season, Sergei Gonchar was considered to be much better than "locked in 50 times over" Scott Niedermayer. He was a consistent Norris contender. Niedermayer as nowhere near the Norris outside of one top-five finish until he won it in 2004 (which should have been Pronger's second Norris).

Gonchar's not a lock by any means, but he has a decent chance.

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04-14-2013, 08:05 PM
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First ballot is hard to predict

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04-14-2013, 11:59 PM
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Maybe because Gonchar is close to retirement, and they think he'll slip in on the first try during a weak year while others might not?
I don't think that Gonchar gets into the HHOF but would he really be the worst guy in there on D?

Quote:
What if Ovechkin, Crosby, Malkin, Datsyuk, Elias, and Chara all retired at the end of this season?
That's part of the problem with the 4 guys per year rule, the bar is obviously now higher for the HHHOF than it was say in the 06 era where a guy like George Armstrong gets in.

Quote:
They can't all go first ballot if that happens. Crosby v. Malkin v. Datsyuk is interesting enough, before you consider guys like Makarov, Joseph, etc. who have been waiting and deserve to be in who might not be at that point. Twelve players would be inducted between now and then; who would be the most deserving? We already know Shanahan has a decent chance to go in this year (as the #4 to Chelios, Niedermayer, and Blake), and if he doesn't return to hockey for 2013-14 or 2014-15, we'll see Sergei Fedorov in the hall for the class of 2015, alongside Nicklas Lidstrom (and probably Pronger) who will be inducted that year. Dominik Hasek is slated for the class of 2014. Mark Recchi and Mike Modano are probably already locked in next to him. And that's just guys who are basically guaranteed their spots. That's six players of twelve. But there isn't a huge logjam of borderline guys or HHOF-worthy guys; I'd say Makarov, Lindros, Kariya, and Nicholls are all guys who belong. Zubov is another guy who doesn't get the credit he deserves; IMHO he was better than Niedermayer. He's also the only "same-era" defenseman who can match or come close to Lidstrom's career PPG.
What you point out is the huge logjam we are going to ahve in 20 years time when they will be more guys not in the HHOF that probably are better than a good 25% of the guys that are in there already and that's being conservative.

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04-15-2013, 12:05 AM
  #14
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Originally Posted by MuzikMachine View Post
I found an article in Bleacher Report talking about 10 Active NHL Stars Who Will be First-Ballot Hall of Famers. If you don't want to read the entire article/slideshow, the list is:
  • Daniel Alfredson
  • Marin Brodeur
  • Sergei Gonchar
  • Marian Hossa
  • Jarome Iginla
  • Jaromir Jagr
  • Chris Pronger
  • Martin St. Louis
  • Teemu Selanne
  • Joe Thorton

Considering the source, it shouldn't be surprisng that this list has some weak entries. As for first-ballot HOF, it's probably be safe to include Broduer, Iginla, Jagr, Pronger, and Selanne. Debatable HOF’ers could be Alfredson and possibly Thorton (his reputation for weak playoff performances would hurt his chances), but the rest would probably be considered very good/non-HOF type players.

What are your thoughts? Are there any players on that list where if they retired tomorrow, would bump anyone on that list (maybe Crosby or Datsyuk)?
First ballot is just another misused ripped off term from baseball, there is no ballot just like there was no dead puck either.

All the names listed above, Ganchar being the only exception maybe, are locks for the HHOF as are other current players in the NHL like Sid and AO.

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04-15-2013, 12:13 AM
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  • Jaromir Jagr
  • Martin Brodeur
The only two locks for first ballot HHOF induction.
  • Chris Pronger
  • Teemu Selanne
  • Jarome Iginla
  • Marian Hossa
  • Martin St. Louis
Would get voted in eventally if their careers end this season.

  • Daniel Alfredson
  • Joe Thornton
If they retired at the end of this season with no playoff success to add? Definitely NOT first balloters! They are like Ovechkin, Crosby and Datsyuk as question marks unless they add more to their resume.
  • Sergei Gonchar
No way a first balloter based on career to date. But, then again, Larry Murphy was a first ballot HHOFer, so it is possible... more so, if he adds to his playoff success in the near future.

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04-15-2013, 08:44 AM
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Brodeur, Jagr, Selanne, Thornton

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04-15-2013, 09:11 AM
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Originally Posted by MuzikMachine View Post
I found an article in Bleacher Report talking about 10 Active NHL Stars Who Will be First-Ballot Hall of Famers. If you don't want to read the entire article/slideshow, the list is:
  • Daniel Alfredson
  • Marin Brodeur
  • Sergei Gonchar
  • Marian Hossa
  • Jarome Iginla
  • Jaromir Jagr
  • Chris Pronger
  • Martin St. Louis
  • Teemu Selanne
  • Joe Thorton

Considering the source, it shouldn't be surprisng that this list has some weak entries. As for first-ballot HOF, it's probably be safe to include Broduer, Iginla, Jagr, Pronger, and Selanne. Debatable HOF’ers could be Alfredson and possibly Thornton (his reputation for weak playoff performances would hurt his chances), but the rest would probably be considered very good/non-HOF type players.

What are your thoughts? Are there any players on that list where if they retired tomorrow, would bump anyone on that list (maybe Crosby or Datsyuk)?
Definitely 1st ballot: Jagr, Brodeur, Teemu
Probably 1st ballot: St. Louis, Pronger
Will get in, not sure on first ballot: Iginla, Thornton
Hall Of Very Good: Gonch, Alfredsson, Hossa. Of the three, Hossa's probably the most likely to move to the above group since he will probably approach the 500 goal mark in 2014-15.

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04-15-2013, 09:58 AM
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I like Bleacher Report a lot more than most but no way is Gonchar a first ballot Hall of Famer.

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04-15-2013, 11:40 AM
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Btw, can Pronger be elected in 2015 even if he doesn't officially retire before that? Assuming he doesn't play anymore, which is the likely scenario.

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04-15-2013, 12:19 PM
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Btw, can Pronger be elected in 2015 even if he doesn't officially retire before that? Assuming he doesn't play anymore, which is the likely scenario.
He can be class of 2015 even if he ends up returning from LTIR to play in the 2015-26 season.

You are eligible three years after your last professional game; Pronger did not (and will not) play one this season, and likely not ever again.

The only thing that would prevent Pronger from being elected is if the HHOF deems him ineligible due to the fact that he has not officially retired and still has a contract, or as an extension of that the voters feel that he should not be eligible until he "officially" retires.

I don't see that happening; that would require an official criteria change by the HHOF, and it would be a significant snub by the voters against a player who is eligible by HHOF rules.

At the same time, being elected to the HHOF while stile being "active" might hurt the Flyers; the NHL might at that point call them out for cap circumvention. This is unlikely (It would have happened with Savard and Pronger already if it was going to happen) but a HHOF induction would indicate "player retired, not coming back." to the league.

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04-15-2013, 12:22 PM
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Definitely 1st ballot: Jagr, Brodeur, Teemu
Probably 1st ballot: St. Louis, Pronger
Will get in, not sure on first ballot: Iginla, Thornton
Hall Of Very Good: Gonch, Alfredsson, Hossa. Of the three, Hossa's probably the most likely to move to the above group since he will probably approach the 500 goal mark in 2014-15.
Pronger gets in over Teemu if it comes down to one or the other. Pronger is the second best defenseman of his generation and has a Norris and a Hart. Teemu is arguably the #3 RW of his generation (I rank him #2) and is well down the list for forwards after you toss in the centers. He's far from the top at his position. Pronger was beaten only by a top-5 defenseman of all-time.

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04-15-2013, 12:39 PM
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He can be class of 2015 even if he ends up returning from LTIR to play in the 2015-26 season.

You are eligible three years after your last professional game; Pronger did not (and will not) play one this season, and likely not ever again.

The only thing that would prevent Pronger from being elected is if the HHOF deems him ineligible due to the fact that he has not officially retired and still has a contract, or as an extension of that the voters feel that he should not be eligible until he "officially" retires.

I don't see that happening; that would require an official criteria change by the HHOF, and it would be a significant snub by the voters against a player who is eligible by HHOF rules.

At the same time, being elected to the HHOF while stile being "active" might hurt the Flyers; the NHL might at that point call them out for cap circumvention. This is unlikely (It would have happened with Savard and Pronger already if it was going to happen) but a HHOF induction would indicate "player retired, not coming back." to the league.
Are you sure those are the correct criteria? Mike Bossy last played during the 1986-87 season, but he didn't officially retire until sometime during the 1987-88 season. Thus, he wasn't eligible for the Hall of Fame until 1991, when he was enshrined in his first year of eligibility. Then again, the rules may have changed since then.

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04-15-2013, 01:06 PM
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  • Jaromir Jagr
  • Martin Brodeur
The only two locks for first ballot HHOF induction.
  • Chris Pronger
  • Teemu Selanne
  • Jarome Iginla
  • Marian Hossa
  • Martin St. Louis
Would get voted in eventally if their careers end this season.


  • Daniel Alfredson
  • Joe Thornton
If they retired at the end of this season with no playoff success to add? Definitely NOT first balloters! They are like Ovechkin, Crosby and Datsyuk as question marks unless they add more to their resume.
  • Sergei Gonchar
No way a first balloter based on career to date. But, then again, Larry Murphy was a first ballot HHOFer, so it is possible... more so, if he adds to his playoff success in the near future.
Mats Sundin went in first ballot, and he didn't have any more playoff success than Thornton or Alfredsson.

Also, why do you have Hossa over Alfredsson? Are you projecting what he'll do in the next few years?

Edit: Actually, what do they have over Iginla in the playoffs?

Other than Hossa, I basically agree with your tiers, but not what you label them.

Stone cold lock for 1st ballot: Brodeur, Jagr

Will be 1st ballot unless a really strong class: Pronger, Selanne, St. Louis, Iginla (with Pronger and Selanne getting higher priority than the other two)

Will likely be voted in, probably not 1st ballot: Thornton, Alfredsson, Hossa (assuming Hossa does a little more; Thornton is 1 decent playoff run from being bumped up a class)

Huh?: Sergei Gonchar

Actually, if we're going to project Hossa into likely making the HHOF, I think it's reasonable to bump Thornton up a notch and project him as a likely 1st ballot guy with St Louis and Iginla


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04-15-2013, 01:11 PM
  #24
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Years of Eligibility

The following assumes that all players retire at age 38. For those who are already 38+, I assume they retire this summer. As you will see, each year that a player goes past 38 increases his chances of first-ballot status...

2013
Rob Blake
Chris Chelios
Paul Kariya
Eric Lindros
Sergei Makarov
Scott Niedermayer
Brendan Shanahan

2014
Peter Forsberg
Dominik Hasek
Mike Modano
Mark Recchi

2015
Sergei Fedorov
Nicklas Lidstrom

2016
Daniel Alfredsson
Martin Brodeur
Sergei Gonchar
Jaromir Jagr
Chris Pronger
Teemu Selanne

2017
Martin St. Louis

2019
Jarome Iginla

2020
Marian Hossa

2021
Joe Thornton

As you can see, there will be at least three 'highly eligible' players left over after the 2013 ballot, then again after the 2014 ballot. After 2015, there will be only 1 such player in the mix (barring unexpected surprises like a 3-player ballot or a guy like Joseph nudging his way in). And let's face it, that player could well be Makarov and none of us would be too surprised if he takes till 2050 to be inducted.

After 2016, when the cohort of players listed in the OP begins to become available, only two or three players will roll over to the following season. Realistically, that's most likely to be Gonchar, Alfredsson, plus the other guy who got bumped from the previous year. Alfie would do himself a big favor by playing next season and coming eligible in 2017.

After 2017, there is no logjam anymore. All of the players listed should rise quite easily to first-ballot status from that point forward.

So, the better question is which of these players will not be first-ballot.

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04-15-2013, 01:14 PM
  #25
Evincar
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Mats Sundin went in first ballot, and he didn't have any more playoff success than Thornton or Alfredsson.

Also, why do you have Hossa over Alfredsson? Are you projecting what he'll do in the next few years?
McDonald, Mullen, and Gartner went in first ballot as well. It doesnt mean anything like in other Hall of Fames.

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