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"Maybe it's Time to Trade Giroux"

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Old
11-13-2015, 06:49 AM
  #1
Jtown
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"Maybe it's Time to Trade Giroux"

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/..._valuable.html

Sam Donnellon brings up some good points in this article. Right now Giroux is at his highest in terms of trade value and when you factor in where the rest of the team is at and where our prospects are at the two are not in alignment. I love Giroux but i've seen my favorite players get traded before, if it helps with our potential future success i am all for it.

First I want to discuss this "rebuild on the fly" approach that hexy and homer used. Homer was foturnate that during the 2011-2012 season after trading away carter and richards that we were able to have such a successful season and compete in the playoffs. That was a successful exampe of "rebuilding on the fly" however since that season we have continued to take steps back in terms of success on the ice and overall talent level of the organization.

Since Hexy has taken over he has not rocked the boat and while some may consider this a good thing I actually am not all for it. This current era of flyers hockey reminds me of the sixers in the POST Iverson years. At the time of the trade the sixers had a superstar that was in the prime of his career and a team that was heading towards a top 3 pick in a stacked draft. We decided to trade iverson, and what we got was some good picks but we messed up and got a pg that helped us in andre miller. Miller was so "good" for us that he led us to the 12th worst record in basketball and instead of competing for a greg oden, al horford or even kevin durant we were left drafting thaddeus young at 12, and jason smith. The next few years the sixers draft at 16, 17, 2 ( lucky but in hindsight unlucky) 15 , and 17. It wasn't until hinkie took over and did not decide to do a rebuild on the fly but a full on tank did the sixers start seeing the benefits of a real rebuild by getting 2 top 3 picks in back to back years.

Right now the flyers are in that same position. WE are going to finish in the bottom 10, but a giroux trade not only brings us young assets but more importantly it takes that bottom 10 finish and pushes it towards a bottom 3 finish. If we keep giroux we will never be good enough to be cup contenders, but we will never be bad enough to get those top picks. We will be caught in no man's land. Instead of this rebuild on the fly bs, lets go full rebuild.

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11-13-2015, 07:00 AM
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BillDineen
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The only scenario trading Giroux would make sense is for a younger 1C/potential 1C. They also don't grow on trees. Flames spent a decade searching. Predators would die for one.

Draft is also a lottery for the top 3 picks. Matthews is really the only top 1C among the prospects this year. Chances are, even when tanking, you won't get one. This team would have to go full Oilers for the next half decade.

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11-13-2015, 07:01 AM
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Appleyard
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Keep Giroux & D develop as expected: Very likely have a ~4-5 year window.

Trade Giroux & D develop as expected: Quite possibly end up being Nashville.


I don't think most people realise how hard a true 1C are to get... arguably tougher than 1D. And while teams have won without a proper 1D, find a team who has won without a high end 1C?

It is virtually impossible to get a high end 1C without drafting one, and only 1/2 of drafts since 2000 have actually have a 1C in them (though some have had 2-3) and most of the 1C's about has been a top 10 pick.

We have been spoilt as Flyers fans, having gone from: Lindros>Forsberg>Richards>Giroux

with very few years in the middle without a guy playing at true 1C level... and the years without a guy of such calibre the team had the best forward depth in the NHL in a non-cap era where we could just buy ~9 top 6 forwards to make up for it.

And this years draft is one of the worst for C's in ages... Matthews is great, but after that I don't see anyone who has proper true 1C potential, more like middling 1C's and high end 2C's (~50-65 point guys).

Giroux should be good until ~age 34... that is plenty of time.

So unless we are getting a young guy with obvious 1C potential coming back (Sean Monahan or the likes) no, trading Giroux would be a pretty bad idea.

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11-13-2015, 07:11 AM
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Appleyard
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Instead... lets do this:

Keep Giroux.

Draft top tier winger this year. (in one of the best drafts for wingers I have ever seen, specifically LWs.)

Let D develop. (average age top 4 D get to that level is ~23, with better D getting there slightly quicker.)

Have span of likely ~2017-2018 to 2022-23 where team could very likely compete assuming D develops.

Try and draft 1C to replace Giroux in ~2017-2021... which gives us more time to get a 1C to replace him and a number of drafts to do so.

Then when Giroux is slowing down aged ~35-37 before retirement at ~37 he can slot in as a two-way middle six guy, while the young guy can take over as the D are in late 20's... and have 10 more years of window!

And as for the writers assumption that Giroux is going to just stop being very good soon... it is pretty unlikely, players of his calibre if they are still in the NHL aged 33-34 are 90% of the time still 1st line C's.

And for an NHL player his injury history is pretty nice. He never really gets hit either.

And playmakers age better than scorers, as you lose less assists as you age.

And players hardly lose PP points as they age... and Giroux is the best PP player in the world.

And he is a good two-way guy, so has value as he ages outside of production.

If anything he is one of the current 'top' players in the NHL who have the most hallmarks of ageing pretty well.

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11-13-2015, 07:12 AM
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Nmc.

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Old
11-13-2015, 07:14 AM
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Jtown
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Appleyard View Post
Keep Giroux & D develop as expected: Very likely have a ~4-5 year window.

Trade Giroux & D develop as expected: Quite possibly end up being Nashville.


I don't think most people realise how hard a true 1C are to get... arguably tougher than 1D. And while teams have won without a proper 1D, find a team who has won without a high end 1C?

It is virtually impossible to get a high end 1C without drafting one, and only 1/2 of drafts since 2000 have actually have a 1C in them (though some have had 2-3) and most of the 1C's about has been a top 10 pick.

We have been spoilt as Flyers fans, having gone from: Lindros>Forsberg>Richards>Giroux

with very few years in the middle without a guy playing at true 1C level... and the years without a guy of such calibre the team had the best forward depth in the NHL in a non-cap era where we could just buy ~9 top 6 forwards to make up for it.

And this years draft is one of the worst for C's in ages... Matthews is great, but after that I don't see anyone who has proper true 1C potential, more like middling 1C's and high end 2C's (~50-65 point guys).

Giroux should be good until ~age 34... that is plenty of time.

So unless we are getting a young guy with obvious 1C potential coming back (Sean Monahan or the likes) no, trading Giroux would be a pretty bad idea.
This is an issue i have. We are putting all our eggs in 1 basket here that our prospects are going to "develop" as expected and the flyers will be able to be a good team. We have 5 legit d prospects that are expected to be in the nhl soon. None of them are considered to be true number 1's and our best prospect ( provorov) is about 5 years from being 23 where a true number 1 really comes into their own.

By that time giroux will be 32. Sure he may still be a number 1 center but he isn't going to be as good as 27 year old claude giroux. So while our d improves our forwards take a hit. Either way its a huge roll of the dice and even if we hit with these d prospects our window is small. If we trade giroux our window is potentially very very large.

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11-13-2015, 07:28 AM
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Appleyard
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jtown View Post
This is an issue i have. We are putting all our eggs in 1 basket here that our prospects are going to "develop" as expected and the flyers will be able to be a good team. We have 5 legit d prospects that are expected to be in the nhl soon. None of them are considered to be true number 1's and our best prospect ( provorov) is about 5 years from being 23 where a true number 1 really comes into their own.

By that time giroux will be 32. Sure he may still be a number 1 center but he isn't going to be as good as 27 year old claude giroux. So while our d improves our forwards take a hit. Either way its a huge roll of the dice and even if we hit with these d prospects our window is small. If we trade giroux our window is potentially very very large.
Or it is a non-existant window.

Look at Nashville.

Weber, Suter, Timonen, Josi... this is the 10th season in the row they have had not one, but 2 #1 calibre defensemen on their roster concurrently, with a mix of Hamhuis, Klein, Zidlicky, Franzon, Ellis, Ekholm, Jones, behind them as good support... and a world class goalie for the last 8 seasons as well... with a surprisingly decent mix of wingers over that time too. Yet they have never got past the conference semis. A true 1C is vital to success.

But as I showed in the post after we can keep Giroux, and still look for a 1C to replace him, in a far bigger timespan that is not so restrictive... and then hopefully compete from ~2018-2032!

The good thing for us is that is a Dman is going to reach #1 level they generally reach top 4 level at ~21-22 instead of 23.

And as for putting all of our eggs in one basket:

If at least ~2 of our D prospects don't turn into legit top 4 guys the Flyers are not going to be doing very much regardless of of how many more eggs they put in different baskets in next few years.

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11-13-2015, 07:38 AM
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Jtown
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Appleyard View Post
Or it is a non-existant window.

Look at Nashville.

Weber, Suter, Timonen, Josi... this is the 10th season in the row they have had not one, but 2 #1 calibre defensemen on their roster concurrently, with a mix of Hamhuis, Klein, Zidlicky, Franzon, Ellis, Ekholm, Jones, behind them as good support... and a world class goalie for the last 8 seasons as well... with a surprisingly decent mix of wingers over that time too. Yet they have never got past the conference semis. A true 1C is vital to success.

But as I showed in the post after we can keep Giroux, and still look for a 1C to replace him, in a far bigger timespan that is not so restrictive... and then hopefully compete from ~2018-2032!

The good thing for us is that is a Dman is going to reach #1 level they generally reach top 4 level at ~21-22 instead of 23.

And as for putting all of our eggs in one basket:

If at least ~2 of our D prospects don't turn into legit top 4 guys the Flyers are not going to be doing very much regardless of of how many more eggs they put in different baskets in next few years.

would you say nashville hasn't won because of no number 1 center or because of having the unfortunate luck of being in the western conference during a very competitive era in which guys like thornton and the sedins are gonna go cupless.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/boxs...004240CHI.html

take a look at that boxscore. If nashville wins that game the fate of 3 franchises could permanetly be altered. Nashville is a bad example to use simply because of how snakebitten the franchise has been.


It is more than likely we find our next number 1 center with a top 5 pick then in the 8-13 range we will be finding ourselves in the next half decade. The only way we can get into that top 5 position is trade giroux. he is keeping us afloat.

This is giroux's prime and we are wasting it. Yeah he is still gonna be productive down the road but its going to be more because of the pp and linemates. Father time is undefeated and its best if we plan for the inevitable.

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11-13-2015, 07:52 AM
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It should be thought about if your an owner and management. Prospects are just that. G will demand a trade to a better team as he sees this is along way from being anything special.

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11-13-2015, 07:56 AM
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Appleyard
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jtown View Post
would you say nashville hasn't won because of no number 1 center or because of having the unfortunate luck of being in the western conference during a very competitive era in which guys like thornton and the sedins are gonna go cupless.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/boxs...004240CHI.html

take a look at that boxscore. If nashville wins that game the fate of 3 franchises could permanetly be altered. Nashville is a bad example to use simply because of how snakebitten the franchise has been.


It is more than likely we find our next number 1 center with a top 5 pick then in the 8-13 range we will be finding ourselves in the next half decade. The only way we can get into that top 5 position is trade giroux. he is keeping us afloat.

This is giroux's prime and we are wasting it. Yeah he is still gonna be productive down the road but its going to be more because of the pp and linemates. Father time is undefeated and its best if we plan for the inevitable.
If Nashville have better 1C's in the last ten years than:

Jason Arnott, David Legwand, Mike Fisher & Mike Ribeiro they would have easily been able to compete with anyone in the West...

they have had no C to matchup vs Toews, Kopitar, Thornton & Sedin and help the team score more goals. And Vancouver & San Jose are two teams who have failed in part as their D over the timespan could not match up vs the other top teams. Give Nashville Thornton or Sedin and takeway some D and they are very likely a better team with a better shot at the cup over that time.

It is not just bad luck that they have missed playoffs in that time due to not being able to score consistently. And when they have got in playoffs they have shockingly had trouble scoring and matching their 1st line vs the other team. When your top center is getting 50-60 points you have no chance of a cup. They did not find themselves in a good situation often enough to get the good luck... why? Because they had no true 1C.


We may well be bottom 5 this year with Giroux due to how bad the D is... but unless we win the lottery there is a very minimal chance we get a 1C, as Matthews is the only one with a real projectable shot at getting to that level. Someone like Tkachuk, Laine, Jones would be best for the franchises future in this draft... all likely are fulltime NHLers in 2017-18, and can come in, be plonked on Giroux's wing and instantly have a great 1C to help them grow effectively.

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11-13-2015, 07:59 AM
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hatcher
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Nashville would be a great place for g.

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11-13-2015, 08:00 AM
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Jtown
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Appleyard View Post
If Nashville have better 1C's in the last ten years than:

Jason Arnott, David Legwand, Mike Fisher & Mike Ribeiro they would have easily been able to compete with anyone in the West...

they have had no C to matchup vs Toews, Kopitar, Thornton & Sedin and help the team score more goals. And Vancouver & San Jose are two teams who have failed in part as their D over the timespan could not match up vs the other top teams. Give Nashville Thornton or Sedin and takeway some D and they are very likely a better team with a better shot at the cup over that time.

It is not just bad luck that they have missed playoffs in that time due to not being able to score consistently. And when they have got in playoffs they have shockingly had trouble scoring and matching their 1st line vs the other team. When your top center is getting 50-60 points you have no chance of a cup. They did not find themselves in a good situation often enough to get the good luck... why? Because they had no true 1C.


We may well be bottom 5 this year with Giroux due to how bad the D is... but unless we win the lottery there is a very minimal chance we get a 1C, as Matthews is the only one with a real projectable shot at getting to that level. Someone like Tkachuk, Laine, Jones would be best for the franchises future in this draft... all likely are fulltime NHLers in 2017-18, and can come in, be plonked on Giroux's wing and instantly have a great 1C to help them grow effectively.

bruins.

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11-13-2015, 08:00 AM
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Originally Posted by Appleyard View Post
I don't think most people realise how hard a true 1C are to get... arguably tougher than 1D. And while teams have won without a proper 1D, find a team who has won without a high end 1C?

It is virtually impossible to get a high end 1C without drafting one, and only 1/2 of drafts since 2000 have actually have a 1C in them (though some have had 2-3) and most of the 1C's about has been a top 10 pick.

And this years draft is one of the worst for C's in ages... Matthews is great, but after that I don't see anyone who has proper true 1C.
I disagree with your premise the #1 centers are hard to find compared to 1D and it is your very next point as the reason why. #1 centers are typically drafted high in the draft where as #1 defensemen are found all over almost randomly. So to get a #1 center you typically have to be bad and draft at the very top whereas to get a #1 defensemen, you have to be lucky. Center prospects are much more predictable.

But here is the most important point. The Flyers will only get better thru the draft. So to say the window will open with Giroux on the roster is to say the Flyers have drafted well on the defense to have top notch difference makers included at least one #1 guy. So if you have faith the Flyers have drafted well at defense, something they have no history as an organization doing, why don't you have faith in their ability to draft at center, something the team has had much success? Especially with more assets to play with in a Giroux trade?

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11-13-2015, 08:04 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jtown View Post
bruins.
Krecji = 70pt pace on 2 occasions.
Bergeron = 70pt pace on 2 occasions.

Both are great 1C's... incidentally those two are probably the only two 1C's drafted since 2000 outside the 1st round.

both are better than anyone teams like Nashville & St.Louis have had in their time with great D, good wings yet still not being a true contender.

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11-13-2015, 08:07 AM
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JTown, I get what you are saying.

But there is no guarantee that we get a #1C to replace Giroux. Removing him and throwing Schenn, Couts or Laughton to the wolves is just not fair.

Spend the next 2 years selling off our D...AND SIMMONDS and get possibly 4 1st rounders in the next 2 years to find top 6 LW and if lucky, a replacement for Giroux.

Then, in a few years when tese kids are coming, Giroux can shelter them until they are ready to take over from him.

There are a bunch of people who felt we would be a playoff team this year and those people are the most surprised with how we are doing.

Appleyard stated it over a year ago, 2016/17 was the earliest that our turnaround would happen....depending on what happens with Vinny and Umberger and our kids on D.

Also, you talk about having all our eggs in 1 basket with our kids on D, but then want to do the same thing to our #1C when we already need a #1/2 LW.

But as I said in the GDT, us winnning anything will be on the backs of our prospects coming on D prime, not on the backs of Giroux and Voracek in their prime. They will be the vets on our team.

But I DO think this year is a year where we have to sell off everything we can(not G unless it truely was a return we could not refuse) and hope we get into a position to draft top talent at F. Streit and Simmonds are 2 that I would 100% be looking to move.

Edit:I will also add, if the plan was ever to trade G, then Voracek never should have been re-signed and he should have been traded at last years deadline or the summer. The plan is to keep those 2 as vets for our kids coming...on D AND at F.


Last edited by Tripod: 11-13-2015 at 08:14 AM.
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11-13-2015, 08:07 AM
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Quote:
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I disagree with your premise the #1 centers are hard to find compared to 1D and it is your very next point as the reason why. #1 centers are typically drafted high in the draft where as #1 defensemen are found all over almost randomly. So to get a #1 center you typically have to be bad and draft at the very top whereas to get a #1 defensemen, you have to be lucky. Center prospects are much more predictable.

But here is the most important point. The Flyers will only get better thru the draft. So to say the window will open with Giroux on the roster is to say the Flyers have drafted well on the defense to have top notch difference makers included at least one #1 guy. So if you have faith the Flyers have drafted well at defense, something they have no history as an organization doing, why don't you have faith in their ability to draft at center, something the team has had much success? Especially with more assets to play with in a Giroux trade?
But even when you are picking ~top 10 they are pretty hard to pick up:

Drafts Since 2000 yielding a player who was a legitimate #1C who you would say for a stretch of time a team could win a cup with that guy as THE man at 1C?:

2000: None
2001: Spezza (#2 pick)
2002: None
2003: Staal (#3 pick) Getzlaf (#19 pick) Richards (#24 pick, and very debatable, best forward group in NHL around him and never elite scorer, but ofc great on D and similar to ~Toews/Kopitar for a short while) Bergeron (#45 pick, and without Krecji is he good enough with a standard, 50 point 2C?)
2004: Malkin (#2 pick) Krejci (#63 pick, and without Bergeron is he good enough with a standard, 50 point 2C?)
2005: Crosby (#1 pick) Kopitar (#11 pick)
2006: Toews (#3 pick) Backstrom (#4 pick) Giroux (#22 pick)
2007: None
2008: Stamkos (#1 pick)
2009: Tavares (#1 pick)
2010: Seguin (#2 pick) TBD: Johansen (#4 pick)

After that it is guys like: Carter, Stepan, Stastny, Backes, Kesler, Little, Plekanec, Turris, Couture etc. They are good players... but even with a stacked D unless you have a similar quality 2C and some great wingers I do not fancy my chances going into a final with any of them as THE man at 1C.

11 years of drafts and there have been 15 guys who became legitimate #1C's from them... (with Johansen a possible, but no-one else looking like being one.) (also, Richards, Spezza and Staal had not exceptionally long windows where they were really legit 1Cs IMO, Richards for ~3 years, Spezza for ~7 years and Staal for ~6-7 years... mainly as they were all quite 'flawed' players compared to the other guys here. Also, would Bergeron and Krejci be good enough individually to be 1C's on cup winners without the other one as 2C, and instead a standard, or even good, 2C who is good for ~50 points?)

If you pick #5 every year in the 2000's you get the chance to pick a #1C in only 4/11 years.

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11-13-2015, 08:09 AM
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Curufinwe
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Trading Giroux before trading Simmonds (or BSchenn, or Couturier, or Voracek) is crazy.

Whatever happened to last year's narrative that Voracek was carrying Giroux, particularly at ES?

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11-13-2015, 08:10 AM
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Jtown
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Appleyard View Post
Krecji = 70pt pace on 2 occasions.
Bergeron = 70pt pace on 2 occasions.

Both are great 1C's... incidentally those two are probably the only two 1C's drafted since 2000 outside the 1st round.

both are better than anyone teams like Nashville & St.Louis have had in their time with great D, good wings yet still not being a true contender.
arnott 70 pt center twice

riberio 70 pt center twice 80 pt center once

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11-13-2015, 08:13 AM
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The other thing to consider is that although the whole mathematics behind having a 1C state we should hang onto Giroux, our offense literally sucks right now. Like terribly bad.

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11-13-2015, 08:15 AM
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Regardless on whether it'd be beneficial to trade him now, can you imagine how much more awful this team would be without Giroux? This current team makes games nearly unwatchable as is.

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11-13-2015, 08:19 AM
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We need MORE from even strength, the PP will go as long as G is on the ice, Schenn will grow into the trigger in the slot, if we could flip Simmonds for a power LW who can play better at even strength, I'd be happy.

Then wait, as Apple has been saying, for the rest to follow suit.

I do not believe trading a "franchise"(?) C is the answer.

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11-13-2015, 08:19 AM
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Curufinwe
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Quote:
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Regardless on whether it'd be beneficial to trade him now, can you imagine how much more awful this team would be without Giroux? This current team makes games nearly unwatchable as is.
I think trading our leading scorer and leading faceoff taker (currently at 60%) would guarantee a bottom two finish, but with the new lottery that only guarantees we would pick 5th or higher.

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11-13-2015, 08:20 AM
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I'm getting antsy about the Flyers trading Simmonds. Don't need to wait til the deadline for it. It could take some undue pressure off the team as well. Team leadership, including Simmonds, seem to have delusions about how good the team is. A move by management sooner rather than later could avoid useless infighting about compete level, heart, etc. The team is just bad and the Flyers must acknowledge this rather than concoct a red herring.

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11-13-2015, 08:25 AM
  #24
Appleyard
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jtown View Post
arnott 70 pt center twice

riberio 70 pt center twice 80 pt center once
And yeh, if Nashville had prime Arnott & Ribeiro together at the same time (like Boston had with Bergeron + Krecji) they probably have a good shot! (though I take Bergeron+Krecji over Arnott+Ribeiro simply due to Ribeiro being a very flawed player.)

As it is they had:

an age 32-35 Arnott who would have been a 2C on most competitors.

an age 34-35 Ribeiro who would be a 2C on most competitors... and is also an immensely flawed player. (I would easily take aged ~32-35 Arnott over him as 1C.)

If you think Nashville can compete with those guys in their early to mid 30's with a good D behind them, a Flyers team with good D and an aged 32-35 Giroux should be up there as favourites for a cup. Since Giroux is a better player than Arnott or Ribeiro were in their primes.

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11-13-2015, 08:25 AM
  #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Appleyard View Post
But even when you are picking ~top 10 they are pretty hard to pick up:

Drafts Since 2000 yielding a player who was a legitimate #1C who you would say for a stretch of time a team could win a cup with that guy as THE man at 1C?:

2000: None
2001: Spezza (#2 pick)
2002: None
2003: Staal (#3 pick) Getzlaf (#19 pick) Richards (#24 pick, and very debatable, best forward group in NHL around him and never elite scorer, but ofc great on D and similar to ~Toews/Kopitar for a short while) Bergeron (#45 pick, and without Krecji is he good enough with a standard, 50 point 2C?)
2004: Malkin (#2 pick) Krejci (#63 pick, and without Bergeron is he good enough with a standard, 50 point 2C?)
2005: Crosby (#1 pick) Kopitar (#11 pick)
2006: Toews (#3 pick) Backstrom (#4 pick) Giroux (#22 pick)
2007: None
2008: Stamkos (#1 pick)
2009: Tavares (#1 pick)
2010: Seguin (#2 pick) TBD: Johansen (#4 pick)

After that it is guys like: Carter, Stepan, Stastny, Backes, Kesler, Little, Plekanec, Turris, Couture etc. They are good players... but even with a stacked D unless you have a similar quality 2C and some great wingers I do not fancy my chances going into a final with any of them as THE man at 1C.

11 years of drafts and there have been 15 guys who became legitimate #1C's from them... (with Johansen a possible, but no-one else looking like being one.) (also, Richards, Spezza and Staal had not exceptionally long windows where they were really legit 1Cs IMO, Richards for ~3 years, Spezza for ~7 years and Staal for ~6-7 years... mainly as they were all quite 'flawed' players compared to the other guys here. Also, would Bergeron and Krejci be good enough individually to be 1C's on cup winners without the other one as 2C, and instead a standard, or even good, 2C who is good for ~50 points?)

If you pick #5 every year in the 2000's you get the chance to pick a #1C in only 4/11 years.
To play devil's advocate, what you are saying ties into what Jtown is saying though.

Picking top 5 might not get you a #1C, but pick #1 or 2 ceratinly gives you much better odds. And with trading Giroux, that might be enough to get to that #1/2 spot depending on the lottery result.

And of course, it also depends who we would get back for Giroux. Maybe we get a possible replacement for him back in a deal as well as other assets.

But looking at past recent drafts, the teams with higher end C are still rebuilding so would not be looking for Giroux.

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