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Rumors & Proposals Thread Vol. 15 | Oilers Pick 7th OV

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Old
04-21-2013, 07:57 PM
  #351
Paralyzer008
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Originally Posted by Bergeron47 View Post
Try posting these 2 points in the Ducks forum and see yourself get flamed. They'll say he's been their best defenceman outside Beauchemin and has improved by leaps and bounds this year. His statline is not at all indicative of his play.
It's possible I'm being ignorant, after all, I watch the Oilers most of the time. However, the offense hasn't been there this season and he's still a -7 (a big improvement over -25 or -28, so there is the "leaps and bounds" right there). I wonder how low his PDO is (probably lower than average).

Still wouldn't want to deal Gagner for him. Just my opinion.

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04-21-2013, 08:05 PM
  #352
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Originally Posted by Paralyzer008 View Post
It's possible I'm being ignorant, after all, I watch the Oilers most of the time. However, the offense hasn't been there this season and he's still a -7 (a big improvement over -25 or -28, so there is the "leaps and bounds" right there). I wonder how low his PDO is (probably lower than average).

Still wouldn't want to deal Gagner for him. Just my opinion.
Only reason I'm informed is I have him on my fantasy keeper league team and been tempted to trade him this year, so I've had a lot of communication with Ducks fans. Apparently he's just snake bitten, but isn't one-dimensional anymore.

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04-21-2013, 08:26 PM
  #353
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Originally Posted by tv14 View Post
If I'm MacT, here is what I do. I sign Horton, Bickell and Stalberg. Trade Hemsky (add if need be) for a top-4 dman and trade for/sign another dman. Dump Smyth and Belanger by whatever means possible.

Hall-RNH-Eberle
Yakupov-Gagner-Horton
Paajarvi-Horcoff-Stalberg
Bickell-Smithson-Brown
Hartikainen/Lander/whoever

Smid-Petry
J Schultz-XXX
N Schultz-XXX

Looks decent to me. Balanced line-up, as any of the third liners, MPS/Horcoff/Stalberg are the type of players that can move up/down to anywhere in the line-up and still be adequate, which is great if the lines need to be shaken up for a spark or for more balance.
IIRC Horton just got hurt again, did he get another concussion?

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04-21-2013, 08:29 PM
  #354
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Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
IIRC Horton just got hurt again, did he get another concussion?
hand i believe

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04-21-2013, 08:29 PM
  #355
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Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
IIRC Horton just got hurt again, did he get another concussion?
No, it was a hand injury. Barely any head shots landed in that fight.

Still though, he's not a power forward any more. I think it'd be the exact same thing as Eager in that that type of player looses a lot of their utility once they have a concussion.

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04-21-2013, 08:30 PM
  #356
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Paralyzer008 View Post
To answer the above poster, I'm in the "sold on Dubnyk" camp, which is why I laugh when I see Edmonton try to get a goalie. D is clearly the problem, Devan faces 30 shots a night on way too many occasions.

Which brings me to this:

Matheson pulling things out of his ass in his recent column, suggests that Anaheim could maybe (speculation seemingly) offer Hiller or Fowler in a swap for Gagner. Hiller would make me mad, because I'm in the Dubnyk camp, and Fowler (who has been awful this season, although fighting injury) would be a bit frustrating, because he isn't defensive at all, and I'd rather grab a two-way D-man than another Justin Schultz (nothing against Schultz, just want someone who can actually defend).
His rebound control is something to be desired...I present to you exhibit A, the rebound he just gave up off a soft, slow shot which resulted in Anaheim tying the game.

Exhibit B is his puck playing ability. If he hasn't learned or developed to play the puck by the time he's 27, he never will. Every attempt is nearly bumbled and fumbled.

I'd love for the guy to prove me wrong, but I just don't see it.

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04-21-2013, 08:36 PM
  #357
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Okay, so my stats experiment may show results, maybe not.

I took the top 12 players in GP for each of the 11 teams in the hunt, and ordered their players 1-12 in order of best PPG.

Then I added each together (like the top PPG players from each team, then the second best PPG from each team etc.) and averaged it out, then compared it to the Oilers.

When it comes to Oilers total PPG compared to the 11 "in the hunt" teams:
Forwards: +0.37 above average (.46 above average without Smithson and Brown)
Defense: -0.35 below average
Goalies: (in save percentage) +0.15 above average

Interesting, even if it doesn't mean much. Might suggest that our goalies and forwards have been fine, but our D hasn't been able to produce enough to match up with the other teams.

I think if you replace Smithson and Brown with Lander and Jones, you reach 0.43 or so above average for forwards. It was clear to me though that these other teams had much better depth options for when their main guys went down.


Last edited by Paralyzer008: 04-21-2013 at 08:41 PM.
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04-21-2013, 08:44 PM
  #358
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My experiments shows that

Smid Petry pairing is -4 combined
Potter-Fistric +7
and J.Schultz-N.Schultz -28

Conclusion: we would be sitting a lot higher in standings if we broke up this very 'Schultzy' pairing a couple months ago.

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Old
04-21-2013, 08:50 PM
  #359
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Now that RNH is hurt till possibly mid November or later you have to think that Gagner is no longer goin to get moved...

Can't start a season with no top six centres..

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04-21-2013, 08:51 PM
  #360
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Shocker: Cam Fowler's PDO is actually average or better, at 1001

So I have no idea why he only has 8 points in 33 games. I thought his PDO would be closer to 970. Suggests the problem isn't puck luck (scored tonight though, ironically)

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04-21-2013, 08:51 PM
  #361
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Quote:
Originally Posted by armandh01 View Post
I don't agree with Bickell as a 4th liner, he is quite a bit beyond a 4th liner. If we had all 3, Paajarvi is out of a job, period.
Currently Bickell ranks 12th among forwards for TOI/G on the Blackhawks so I don't think he should be handed a 3rd line spot. But thats the beauty about depth and having players that can move up and down the line-up freely, something we have not had for ages.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
IIRC Horton just got hurt again, did he get another concussion?
I did not even know that. I had heard that him and Lucic were possible scratches and saw that Lucic was scratched last game, and Horton today, so I just assumed that that was why. Mistake on my part.

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04-21-2013, 10:13 PM
  #362
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Originally Posted by oilersfan11 View Post
I wonder though if we end up getting Seth Jones if that will pretty much mean that Petry will be done as an Oiler.
Why? They are totally different types of players.

Jones - J. Schultz
Petry - Smid
N. Schultz/Fistric - Klefbom

With Petry and Smid playing the hard minutes.

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04-21-2013, 10:22 PM
  #363
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Originally Posted by tv14 View Post
Currently Bickell ranks 12th among forwards for TOI/G on the Blackhawks so I don't think he should be handed a 3rd line spot. But thats the beauty about depth and having players that can move up and down the line-up freely, something we have not had for ages.
A 40 point guy who hits a massive amount isn't a 4th liner, maybe on the Blackhawks and therein lies the issue with our team.

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04-21-2013, 10:29 PM
  #364
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Originally Posted by zeus3007 View Post
Why? They are totally different types of players.

Jones - J. Schultz
Petry - Smid
N. Schultz/Fistric - Klefbom

With Petry and Smid playing the hard minutes.
I think he means that J. Schultz, Jeff Petry and Seth Jones are all RH shots.

Even still...

UFA-J.Schultz
Smid-Petry
Fistric/Klefbom-Jones
seems doable for a year or two.

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04-21-2013, 10:30 PM
  #365
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What about Jordan Eberle for Adam Larsson and a NJD 2013 first round pick ?

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Old
04-21-2013, 10:39 PM
  #366
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Originally Posted by oilvision View Post
What about Jordan Eberle for Adam Larsson and a NJD 2013 first round pick ?
This won't help us win next season. No thanks.

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04-21-2013, 11:35 PM
  #367
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Originally Posted by armandh01 View Post
A 40 point guy who hits a massive amount isn't a 4th liner, maybe on the Blackhawks and therein lies the issue with our team.
Wouldn't call him a 40 point forward, but man I never knew he was doing that good! Although he could be riding a very good Blackhawks team, I could see a team offering him a big contract and possibly regretting it in the future. Maybe pricing himself out of our range.

I was wondering why Chicago wouldn't keep him, but it appears that he has priced himself out of their range as they wouldn't pay him what he would want given their depth.

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04-21-2013, 11:41 PM
  #368
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Originally Posted by Paralyzer008 View Post
This won't help us win next season. No thanks.





How about Jordan Eberle for PK Subban.

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Old
04-22-2013, 12:41 AM
  #369
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Justin Schultz (5th year post-draft):
21:26, -15, 0.20 ESP/Game in 44gp

Jeff Petry (6th year post-draft):
21:45, -7, 0.26 ESP/Game in 73gp

Tom Gilbert (6th year post-draft):
22:11, -6, 0.27 ESP/Game in 82gp

Am I the only one who doesn't see why Justin Schultz is part of the "must-keep" group? He's on pace to be -30 in a full season.

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04-22-2013, 12:47 AM
  #370
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Plus minus is pretty useless in this example...

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Old
04-22-2013, 12:48 AM
  #371
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hemsky_83 View Post
Justin Schultz (5th year post-draft):
21:26, -15, 0.20 ESP/Game in 44gp

Jeff Petry (6th year post-draft):
21:45, -7, 0.26 ESP/Game in 73gp

Tom Gilbert (6th year post-draft):
22:11, -6, 0.27 ESP/Game in 82gp

Am I the only one who doesn't see why Justin Schultz is part of the "must-keep" group? He's on pace to be -30 in a full season.
Not Sure if Serious

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04-22-2013, 12:49 AM
  #372
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hemsky_83 View Post
Justin Schultz (5th year post-draft):
21:26, -15, 0.20 ESP/Game in 44gp

Jeff Petry (6th year post-draft):
21:45, -7, 0.26 ESP/Game in 73gp

Tom Gilbert (6th year post-draft):
22:11, -6, 0.27 ESP/Game in 82gp

Am I the only one who doesn't see why Justin Schultz is part of the "must-keep" group? He's on pace to be -30 in a full season.
Because he is our only point producing Dman? Maybe his +/- has a lot to do with who he is paired with? Maybe he needs to break into a season where he isn't playing even second night. Who knows...maybe we'll see next season.

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04-22-2013, 01:44 AM
  #373
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J Schultz's plus minus is also misrepresented because of how many points he gets on the PP and how many matchups he gets 5 on 5 without penalty kill.

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04-22-2013, 02:01 AM
  #374
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hemsky_83 View Post
Justin Schultz (5th year post-draft):
21:26, -15, 0.20 ESP/Game in 44gp

Jeff Petry (6th year post-draft):
21:45, -7, 0.26 ESP/Game in 73gp

Tom Gilbert (6th year post-draft):
22:11, -6, 0.27 ESP/Game in 82gp

Am I the only one who doesn't see why Justin Schultz is part of the "must-keep" group? He's on pace to be -30 in a full season.
Why would you use years post-draft as a reference point..? Schultz is a rookie.

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Old
04-22-2013, 05:31 AM
  #375
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Originally Posted by duul View Post
Why would you use years post-draft as a reference point..? Schultz is a rookie.
6th year post draft is Gilbert's rookie season. Petry played 35 games in his 5th. His 6th was his first full season.

Probably the point he is trying to make is that Schultz is behind both Gilbert and Petry in his rookie season in terms of ES.

If he's a guy that needs to be sheltered outside of the PP over the next few years then he probably isn't a guy you keep at all costs/build the franchise around.

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