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Rumors & Proposals Thread Vol. 15 | Oilers Pick 7th OV

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Old
04-25-2013, 01:14 PM
  #751
Koto
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Originally Posted by joestevens29 View Post
Not sure why one of the proven players has to be dealt in order to make a big move.

Put Gagner and Klefbom and 2014 1st, and I'm sure you can find a pretty decent player.
See to me, that package has more value than Eberle, but because Eberle has a certain cache he would return more IMO. It also creates more holes in the future, this is the type of thing that is so frustrating, many people seem to have blinders on when it comes Eberle, they'd rather procrastinate, or sacrifice in other areas where we have less quality and less depth, in order to retain one of the golden boys.


Eberle is a very talented player.

But he is a complimentary player, and plays our deepest position (RW - Yakupov/Hemsky), a position which i think is the least important (W<C/D).



Quote:
Originally Posted by BowDangles View Post
Trading Eberle right now would be a mistake. You are selling low on a player with huge potential.
Eberle had an off year for points wise, most likely because of his broken finger, but if you look at individual scoring chances they show that Eberle actually produced MORE scoring chances this year than last, he was just a victim of bad luck and a low shooting percentage. Which I am hoping is due to his finger.

The only way you trade Eberle is if it is a severe over payment. There are other pieces you can package to get a 1st pairing D. Start with our 1st rounder this year, which could more than likely be top 3 in this year's draft...
I'm not convinced we would be selling low right now, Eberle has still had a fairly productive season and is not far removed from his 74 point campaign, i also think that will be a relive high water mark. His shooting % should increase, however not to last years IMO.

I'm not opposed to trading our pick for D, but i dont believe we have a ton of pieces which can pull in a top-pairing Dman.

GM's will always be hesitant to trade away prime contributing players for futures, even if value seems fair.


Do you think we can get a 1st pair Dman for a #3 pick straight up? Would you be willing to add? I'm not sure we could, but wouldn't really want to add.


Same question for Eberle...i think we could get one for him, and don't think we'd have to add (unless were targeting a true #1 star).


Does Eberle have that much more value than the pick? Only in terms of risk Aversion IMO. that and PR. Hell the pick could be better than eberle.

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04-25-2013, 01:18 PM
  #752
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Originally Posted by dyzfunctioned View Post
That's fair - I don't think there's such a thing as too small, it just comes down to how the player plays and how easily they get knocked off the puck.

It just drives me insane when people are like, hey, we need a big bodied guy like Penner or this other random big guy because our lineup needs size. Size doesn't mean ****. Four of the toughest guys I can think of to get the puck off of are Forsberg, Crosby, Datsyuk, Jagr - none of these guys are particularly big other than Jagr.

So when I see guys say we need to get a big body in the top 6, or we need to draft Monahan because he's 6'3 or whatever... Just stop. Look at how they play.

Again, if someone says we need a player who plays big or who can control the puck I won't say anything. But when someone say's "We need size!"... Just ugh,
theres always room for variation, but size is a major factor is controlling the puck.


you named 4 guys that would fall into a much larger pool of skilled puck possessors, but 90% of that pool is going to be bigger and stronger.


I'm not saying trade all the players under 6'1, but it would be nice to have some balance in the top-6, which is already a problem and adding drouin would just magnify it.

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04-25-2013, 01:32 PM
  #753
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Koto View Post
See to me, that package has more value than Eberle, but because Eberle has a certain cache he would return more IMO. It also creates more holes in the future, this is the type of thing that is so frustrating, many people seem to have blinders on when it comes Eberle, they'd rather procrastinate, or sacrifice in other areas where we have less quality and less depth, in order to retain one of the golden boys.


Eberle is a very talented player.

But he is a complimentary player, and plays our deepest position (RW - Yakupov/Hemsky), a position which i think is the least important (W<C/D).





I'm not convinced we would be selling low right now, Eberle has still had a fairly productive season and is not far removed from his 74 point campaign, i also think that will be a relive high water mark. His shooting % should increase, however not to last years IMO.

I'm not opposed to trading our pick for D, but i dont believe we have a ton of pieces which can pull in a top-pairing Dman.

GM's will always be hesitant to trade away prime contributing players for futures, even if value seems fair.


Do you think we can get a 1st pair Dman for a #3 pick straight up? Would you be willing to add? I'm not sure we could, but wouldn't really want to add.


Same question for Eberle...i think we could get one for him, and don't think we'd have to add (unless were targeting a true #1 star).


Does Eberle have that much more value than the pick? Only in terms of risk Aversion IMO. that and PR. Hell the pick could be better than eberle.
The point of trading the pick over Eberle is to not take a step back in terms of development. Oilers need to stop having rookies play the most important roles every year, there needs to be a point where the organization stops trying to rebuild and starts trying to compete by bringing in proven players for picks and prospects..

I really hope that time is this summer.

I am looking at this summer like the deciding point between whether this rebuild is going to turn into a Pitt/Chicago model or a Columbus/Florida model....

I really hope management looks at it the same way, than maybe they will actually DO something.

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04-25-2013, 01:49 PM
  #754
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Originally Posted by BowDangles View Post
The point of trading the pick over Eberle is to not take a step back in terms of development. Oilers need to stop having rookies play the most important roles every year, there needs to be a point where the organization stops trying to rebuild and starts trying to compete by bringing in proven players for picks and prospects..

I really hope that time is this summer.

I am looking at this summer like the deciding point between whether this rebuild is going to turn into a Pitt/Chicago model or a Columbus/Florida model....

I really hope management looks at it the same way, than maybe they will actually DO something.
I'm not suggesting we trade Eberle for futures, I'm suggesting we can get more for him, than certain individual or packages of futures that we own.


Since you declined to give your opinion on if we could get a top pairing guy for our 1st, im just going to say we can't. So lets just take that off the table.


is the team better next year with Eberle or with some actual quality #2D that we could acquire for him? I don't think it's close.


Right now we need to turn a corner, but i would prefer to do so without sabotaging the future.


Selling 1sts and prospects like Klefbom in packages at discount prices so that we can both expedite the rebuild and retain our beloved Eberle is not a good solution IMO.



Everyone always says pick BPA, you can deal from a position of strength to address needs.


Well RW is that position of strength. Hemsky has little value, but can still contribute to our team. Most of Yakupovs value is still captured in potential (which no one will pay a premium for, similar to our 1st this year), and IMO should be kept over eberle.


Eberle is the piece.

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04-25-2013, 01:53 PM
  #755
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Trade Hemsky (retain salary) + Harski+2 2nds for Lucic
OR trade Hemsky for Dubinsky

Sign Bickell
Sign Nichol/Gordon


Hall-Nuge-Ebs
Lucic/Dubinsky-Gagner-Yak
Bickell-Horcoff-Paajarvi
Smyth-Nichol/Gordon- Brown

Provides some grit, size, and a great checking line. Only real liability would be #94.

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04-25-2013, 01:56 PM
  #756
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Originally Posted by jmoss45 View Post
Trade Hemsky (retain salary) + Harski+2 2nds for Lucic
OR trade Hemsky for Dubinsky

Sign Bickell
Sign Nichol/Gordon


Hall-Nuge-Ebs
Lucic/Dubinsky-Gagner-Yak
Bickell-Horcoff-Paajarvi
Smyth-Nichol/Gordon- Brown

Provides some grit, size, and a great checking line. Only real liability would be #94.

don't think dubinsky would be available, and man the B's would have to be so down on lucic for that to go through...still possible others would outbid IMO.

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04-25-2013, 02:07 PM
  #757
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I like the idea of drafting Barkov with our pick, and then trading Gagner to Chicago for McNeill and Hjarmalsson. This will give us size and depth up the middle as well as a good minute munching D man who is good in his own end. He would also be a good mentor and partner to Klefbom.

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04-25-2013, 02:21 PM
  #758
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BowDangles View Post
The point of trading the pick over Eberle is to not take a step back in terms of development. Oilers need to stop having rookies play the most important roles every year, there needs to be a point where the organization stops trying to rebuild and starts trying to compete by bringing in proven players for picks and prospects..

I really hope that time is this summer.

I am looking at this summer like the deciding point between whether this rebuild is going to turn into a Pitt/Chicago model or a Columbus/Florida model....

I really hope management looks at it the same way, than maybe they will actually DO something.
exactly, the time for magic beans is over... the time for trading some picks and prospects for actual NHLers is now

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04-25-2013, 02:26 PM
  #759
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I'm up for trading the pick to get a good NHLer, im just not sure theres a lot of interest the other way, unless you are selling at a big discount.

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04-25-2013, 02:47 PM
  #760
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I'm generally OK with trading draft picks for immediate help, but not if it's a pick in the top 5, especially in this draft year.

A team doesn't get a chance too often to get a pick that high (although the Oilers are trying their best to buck that stereotype), IMO you hold onto that asset and draft whomever you consider to be BPA, and move on with improving your team using other assets at your disposal.

I can see the Oilers soliciting offers like they do every year for their pick, but like the vast majority of teams who pick in the top 5, they'll decide that they're not getting the offers necessary to pry that pick away, and will just keep it for themselves.

MacT may be willing to move the pick, but he's not a stupid man...he's not going to just give it away to the highest bidder regardless of what is being offered. That offer has to be very substantial, and I'm doubting that teams will want the pick badly enough to give up what the Oilers will want.

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Old
04-25-2013, 03:07 PM
  #761
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Koto View Post
I'm not suggesting we trade Eberle for futures, I'm suggesting we can get more for him, than certain individual or packages of futures that we own.


Since you declined to give your opinion on if we could get a top pairing guy for our 1st, im just going to say we can't. So lets just take that off the table.


is the team better next year with Eberle or with some actual quality #2D that we could acquire for him? I don't think it's close.


Right now we need to turn a corner, but i would prefer to do so without sabotaging the future.


Selling 1sts and prospects like Klefbom in packages at discount prices so that we can both expedite the rebuild and retain our beloved Eberle is not a good solution IMO.



Everyone always says pick BPA, you can deal from a position of strength to address needs.


Well RW is that position of strength. Hemsky has little value, but can still contribute to our team. Most of Yakupovs value is still captured in potential (which no one will pay a premium for, similar to our 1st this year), and IMO should be kept over eberle.


Eberle is the piece.
Will it get us a top defence man alone? I am not sure.. If it is top 3 it could. It matters what situation the other team is in.. I would be okay with adding to the pick to get a solidified top two defence man with term.

Here is the last top three picks since 2003.

2003: Marc-Andre Fleury, Eric Staal, Nathan Horton
2004: Ovechkin, Malkin, Barker
2005: Crosby, Bobby Ryan, Jack Johnson
2006: Erik Johnson, Jordan Staal, Jonathon Toews
2007: Patrick Kane, JVR, Kyle Turris
2008: Stamkos, Doughty, Bogosian
2009: Tavaras, Hedman, Duchene
2010: Hall, Seguin, Gudbranson
2011: RNH, Landeskog, Hubreau
2012: Yak, Murray, Galchenyuk

The risk is there at #3 for sure, but with the exception of Barker and maybe Turris you are still going to get a quality NHL player. This draft is most comparable to 2006 as well with having a consensus #1 dman than two very close forwards battling it out for #2.

I think a pick being either Mckinnon/Drouin can garner some serious interest with clubs looking to add a FWD to the mix.

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04-25-2013, 03:14 PM
  #762
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Originally Posted by Digger12 View Post
I'm generally OK with trading draft picks for immediate help, but not if it's a pick in the top 5, especially in this draft year.

A team doesn't get a chance too often to get a pick that high (although the Oilers are trying their best to buck that stereotype), IMO you hold onto that asset and draft whomever you consider to be BPA, and move on with improving your team using other assets at your disposal.

I can see the Oilers soliciting offers like they do every year for their pick, but like the vast majority of teams who pick in the top 5, they'll decide that they're not getting the offers necessary to pry that pick away, and will just keep it for themselves.

MacT may be willing to move the pick, but he's not a stupid man...he's not going to just give it away to the highest bidder regardless of what is being offered. That offer has to be very substantial, and I'm doubting that teams will want the pick badly enough to give up what the Oilers will want.
This is what i expect as well, i just believe teams would be willing to give up much more for Eberle than the pick, even though the pick should produce a player as good as/better than eberle.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BowDangles View Post
Will it get us a top defence man alone? I am not sure.. If it is top 3 it could. It matters what situation the other team is in.. I would be okay with adding to the pick to get a solidified top two defence man with term.

Here is the last top three picks since 2003.

2003: Marc-Andre Fleury, Eric Staal, Nathan Horton
2004: Ovechkin, Malkin, Barker
2005: Crosby, Bobby Ryan, Jack Johnson
2006: Erik Johnson, Jordan Staal, Jonathon Toews
2007: Patrick Kane, JVR, Kyle Turris
2008: Stamkos, Doughty, Bogosian
2009: Tavaras, Hedman, Duchene
2010: Hall, Seguin, Gudbranson
2011: RNH, Landeskog, Hubreau
2012: Yak, Murray, Galchenyuk

The risk is there at #3 for sure, but with the exception of Barker and maybe Turris you are still going to get a quality NHL player. This draft is most comparable to 2006 as well with having a consensus #1 dman than two very close forwards battling it out for #2.

I think a pick being either Mckinnon/Drouin can garner some serious interest with clubs looking to add a FWD to the mix.
Too what extent? i just think you're getting to the point where your giving up a lot more than eberle, in order to keep eberle.

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04-25-2013, 03:53 PM
  #763
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so how about the Shattenkirk for 2013 1st ?

is that a legit rumor and would it be worth it for EDM?

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04-25-2013, 03:56 PM
  #764
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Originally Posted by Petro Points View Post
so how about the Shattenkirk for 2013 1st ?

is that a legit rumor and would it be worth it for EDM?
forget legit rumor? is that a rumor at all? or did you just make it up?



could be worthwhile. i don't know a ton about shattenkirk, but sounds like a guy that would make sense for us, and decent value for the pick.

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04-25-2013, 04:09 PM
  #765
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Originally Posted by Petro Points View Post
so how about the Shattenkirk for 2013 1st ?

is that a legit rumor and would it be worth it for EDM?
As fans, we keep saying Edmonton needs a top pairing defenceman, and it's true. But if it's true (which it is), why do we keep throwing guys like Yandle and Shattenkirk as targets in every trade proposal?

These aren't top-pairing d-men; they play sheltered minutes and as a result look better on paper than they are.

Shattenkirk was 19th on the blues in CorsiRelQOC, behind other d-men on the team such as Pietrangelo, Jackman, Cole, and Polak. Not to mention he started 57% of his shifts in the O-zone and only finished 46% in the O-zone, a massive negative differential. The story is similiar with Yandle who everyone thinks will transform the Oilers blue line.

Yes, I'd love to have either of these guys - but they're not top pairing defencemen. They're both good #3/#4 guys who can move the puck well but receive limited defensive responsibility. Don't want to give up Gagner (our only top 6C going into next season ATM) + some combo of Paajarvi/1st/Marincin or whatever else is being thrown out.

OEL, Phaneuf, Giordano, Kronwall, Weber, Bouwmeester, Chara, Bogosian, Brodin, Suter, etc. are good top pairing d-men. Shattenkirk and Yandle are not.

I'd rather we target a guy like Sekera, who not only would be much cheaper (both salary and cost to acquire) but who doesn't need to be sheltered, actually has a positive zone-start differential, and can face top competition. He's not a legit top pairing d-man but he'd pretty much instantly because our best overall d-man. The only guys even close on our team is Smid/Petry.

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04-25-2013, 04:23 PM
  #766
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yeah i dont really want yandle at all...so if shattenkirk is like him, then no go on the 1st for me.

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04-25-2013, 04:37 PM
  #767
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I know its sexy to think of the Oilers adding a #1 dman, but I don't this its a good idea finanically (costs too much) or asset-wise in trading.

I think the Oilers could get by simply by adding a #2 or #3 dman to the mix to eat up more minutes without goofing up defensively.

To put it into perspective, our top pairing was Smid - Petry. Jeff Petry had only play 100 games prior to this season, it was essentially his sophomore season. That's a lot to expect in the first pairing.

Our second pairing was Schultz and Schultz - namely Justin Schultz who was a rookie who had never played professionally or anywhere close to 82 game schedule.

How can anyone be surprised that the Oilers failed to make the playoffs with such young and inexperienced defenders? It took Ladi Smid what, four years to become a solid NHL defender.

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04-25-2013, 04:48 PM
  #768
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Originally Posted by Petro Points View Post
so how about the Shattenkirk for 2013 1st ?

is that a legit rumor and would it be worth it for EDM?
First I have heard of this. I would say no to that deal. I would prefer Jones, MacKinnon, Barkov, Drouin, or Monahan over Shattenkirk.

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04-25-2013, 04:49 PM
  #769
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Originally Posted by Master Lok View Post
I know its sexy to think of the Oilers adding a #1 dman, but I don't this its a good idea finanically (costs too much) or asset-wise in trading.

I think the Oilers could get by simply by adding a #2 or #3 dman to the mix to eat up more minutes without goofing up defensively.

To put it into perspective, our top pairing was Smid - Petry. Jeff Petry had only play 100 games prior to this season, it was essentially his sophomore season. That's a lot to expect in the first pairing.

Our second pairing was Schultz and Schultz - namely Justin Schultz who was a rookie who had never played professionally or anywhere close to 82 game schedule.

How can anyone be surprised that the Oilers failed to make the playoffs with such young and inexperienced defenders? It took Ladi Smid what, four years to become a solid NHL defender.
Its not that the Oilers need a #1 defence man than every thing is solved. They need a #1 defence man as well as another top 4 defence man. The blue line is no where near where it needs to be and needs multiple additions to it.

#1-2Dman, Top4 dman
Smid-Petry
J.Schultz - N.Schultz


I do not want guys like Fistric or Potter on the Oilers every single night. Nick Schultz is a number 5 dman at best. He should be stapled on the bottom pairing with the least amount of minutes.

Justin is not quite ready to play big minutes every night, you can tell by the way he has tapered off in the latter half of this season. Shelter his 5on5 minutes and keep him on the PP.

Ryan Rishaug this morning on the Neilson and Frasor show said that they should play Justin upwards of 23 minutes a night to get him used to it for the future.

I am under the impression that if you hang him out to dry like that than it will shatter his confidence because he will be too run down and get beat all the time. (like his play right now)

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04-25-2013, 04:50 PM
  #770
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First I have heard of this. I would say no to that deal. I would prefer Jones, MacKinnon, Barkov, Drouin, or Monahan over Shattenkirk.
I'd prefer Shattenkirk because he fills a need this club has right now.

Unless we win the lottery. Then no.

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04-25-2013, 04:51 PM
  #771
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Originally Posted by Master Lok View Post
I know its sexy to think of the Oilers adding a #1 dman, but I don't this its a good idea finanically (costs too much) or asset-wise in trading.

I think the Oilers could get by simply by adding a #2 or #3 dman to the mix to eat up more minutes without goofing up defensively.

To put it into perspective, our top pairing was Smid - Petry. Jeff Petry had only play 100 games prior to this season, it was essentially his sophomore season. That's a lot to expect in the first pairing.

Our second pairing was Schultz and Schultz - namely Justin Schultz who was a rookie who had never played professionally or anywhere close to 82 game schedule.

How can anyone be surprised that the Oilers failed to make the playoffs with such young and inexperienced defenders? It took Ladi Smid what, four years to become a solid NHL defender.
Along this line of thinking, I can't think of a single #1 d-man we could acquire... maybe a top pairing guy at the cost of one of the big 4, but not a true #1. I mean, one or two spring to mind but they come with massive salaries as well and are more top pairing not #1.

I think best bet/most realistic option is to trade for one d-man (Sekera is the target I really think we should go after, as I said before) and then sign one UFA d-man. There's plenty on the market from Streit, Clitsome, Scuderi, Leopold, Lydman, and White. Obviously Streit is the clear #1 option of that list but all would be a good add.

Smid-Petry
Schultz - Sekera
Schultz - UFA (Streit/Scuderi/Leopold/Lydman)

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04-25-2013, 05:07 PM
  #772
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Master Lok View Post
I know its sexy to think of the Oilers adding a #1 dman, but I don't this its a good idea finanically (costs too much) or asset-wise in trading.

I think the Oilers could get by simply by adding a #2 or #3 dman to the mix to eat up more minutes without goofing up defensively.

To put it into perspective, our top pairing was Smid - Petry. Jeff Petry had only play 100 games prior to this season, it was essentially his sophomore season. That's a lot to expect in the first pairing.

Our second pairing was Schultz and Schultz - namely Justin Schultz who was a rookie who had never played professionally or anywhere close to 82 game schedule.

How can anyone be surprised that the Oilers failed to make the playoffs with such young and inexperienced defenders? It took Ladi Smid what, four years to become a solid NHL defender.
Agreed on all counts. Justin Schultz has looked terrible in the last 10, while Petry seems to be going through some kind of sophmore slump. This D needs some serious help, and can't expect rookies to cure it.

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04-25-2013, 05:25 PM
  #773
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The "legend" of Kevin Shattenkirk has been blown completely out of proportion. He's not that good.

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04-25-2013, 05:26 PM
  #774
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Originally Posted by Moonlapse Vertigo View Post
The "legend" of Kevin Shattenkirk has been blown completely out of proportion. He's not that good.
Same thing with Yandle.

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04-25-2013, 07:20 PM
  #775
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Agree regarding Yandle and Shattenkirk being overrated and not the best . Don't know why everyone is so surprised by the Oilers position, all their core players are in their teens and early 20's, I'm not interested in mortgaging possibly years of contending down the road because some people are getting impatient.

That being said there are some major upgrades needed in the core's surrounding parts especially on the back end, but I would use free agency, the draft and packages of lesser parts to address those needs.

And while Dubs wasn't the problem this season and was perhaps even a band aid at some times of the season, I don't think that he is a goalie that will ever lead them on a cup run, but hope he proves me wrong as he has taken good steps forward the last 2 seasons.

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