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The Leafs have clinched a playoff spot, and luck has nothing to do with it...

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Old
04-21-2013, 03:39 PM
  #51
thewave
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Quote:
Originally Posted by leafspring View Post
The leafs as of today average 26.7 shots per game and give up 32.5 per game. Break that down into periods and they give up 2 shots more per period than they get per period.

Where is all fuss coming from i wonder. A well penalized top defensive team is what we are i'm thinkin lol.
Look at the last 10 games? We are at playoff speed as teams fight to get in.

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04-21-2013, 03:39 PM
  #52
Ari91
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People who vehemently argue against the results produced based on how we should interpret advanced statistics are both lame and are nerds. Why do people care so much about how sustainable the Leafs shooting percentage is? Guess what, they were talking about how the Leafs would come crashing back down to earth after just the first week of the season. We're here 3 months and 45 games later and people are still saying the same thing.

I don't want to discredit what stats can bring to an argument but when you base your entire argument around the numbers and not the context, then your argument will be flawed right out of the gate.

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04-21-2013, 03:43 PM
  #53
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Originally Posted by Melrose's Mullet View Post
Advanced stats in hockey are a little bit ridiculous in my opinion. They trivialize the game and turn non-issues into the be-all end all in sports. I see it as a way for people who have never played the sport to try and understand the nuances of it, but numbers will not capture the essence of what makes a good hockey team a good hockey team.

There are just far too many intangibles in a game based heavily on momentum, such as hockey is. Anyone who has ever played the sport, or has been watching it their entire life, understands that advanced stats have little place in a hockey game.
Intangibles, game of momentum, yea I agree that I don't see advanced stats as having much to do with the game of hockey. Maybe use them to put some focus on potential areas that could use improvement but I don't put to much stock in them overall.

Ppull are gonna hate on the Leafs no matter what. Basically they are jealous of our fan base.

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Old
04-21-2013, 03:53 PM
  #54
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Originally Posted by theremedial View Post
Look at the last 10 games? We are at playoff speed as teams fight to get in.
Last 10 we are 6-3-1 under that extreme pressure.

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Old
04-21-2013, 03:56 PM
  #55
Daisy Joy
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this is the way I see it:

I've been watching this team since 2002.
I've seen games where they got outshot brutally - but won
I've seen games where they out SHOOT brutally - and lost

and I've seen over and over again. so basically, I don't care if they get out shot or outshoot, if the win is pretty or ugly. I am happy that they win. bless this sport for not awarding the points for the pretty.

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04-21-2013, 04:03 PM
  #56
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The Leafs are not a top offensive team in the league by accident. They may not register as many shots on goal compared to other teams but why do we discredit the combination of smart plays, opportunism and talent that have resulted in 138 goals for so far this season? Stats show patterns, that is all. Patterns would suggest a likely path but not the only path of success. If the Leafs sacrifice the smart plays on the ice that leads to goals in favour of simply throwing all shots on net and hope for a rebound or for the goalie to let in a softy, does it really make them a better team because the numbers reflect what the typical pattern is for successful teams?

The Leafs have a relatively inexperienced blue line and so they play far more conservative when they're in their own zone. That usually means a lot of shot blocking and a lot of taking the body, a lot of stick movement to remove passing lanes and it forces a lot of bad angle/perimeter shots. If the Leafs had some more experienced, stabilizing bodies in the back end, maybe the primary focus wouldn't be 'force a perimeter shot' but rather 'I'm going to get this puck out right now'. The Leafs don't create opportunities to clear the puck out of the zone, they simply look for opportunities to do so.

And you can call their wins good, bad or ugly but at the end of the day, even if you look good losing, it's still losing and for the Leafs, that backlash would be even greater than the backlash they get for winning ugly.

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04-21-2013, 04:06 PM
  #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HockeyCrazed101 View Post
People who vehemently argue against the results produced based on how we should interpret advanced statistics are both lame and are nerds. Why do people care so much about how sustainable the Leafs shooting percentage is? Guess what, they were talking about how the Leafs would come crashing back down to earth after just the first week of the season. We're here 3 months and 45 games later and people are still saying the same thing.

I don't want to discredit what stats can bring to an argument but when you base your entire argument around the numbers and not the context, then your argument will be flawed right out of the gate.
Probably the best rebuttal I've ever read

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Old
04-21-2013, 04:27 PM
  #58
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its all because we burned those boats!

(i still dont really understand that... TO THE GOOGLE MACHINE!)

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Old
04-21-2013, 04:45 PM
  #59
HellasLEAF
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I agree that the shots stat should be replaced by the scoring chances stat.

Permanently.

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04-21-2013, 04:45 PM
  #60
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Howard Berger.... In Case You Forgot (or Never Knew)

Quote:
TORONTO (Apr. 21) – No, the Maple Leafs didn’t make the playoffs for the first time on Saturday night. It just seems that way.

Perhaps you weren’t alive the last time it happened. If you are less than 18 years of age, this will almost certainly be the first playoff you’ll remember. Bottom line is: Maple Leafs have finally ended a nine-year drought and will partake in the Stanley Cup tournament for the first time since 2004 after routing the Senators, 4-1, in Ottawa. Now, the wait is on for a dance partner.
http://www.bergerbytes.ca/in-case-yo...or-never-knew/

Has some great newspaper clippings, from old play-off years, well worth a look see.

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04-21-2013, 04:57 PM
  #61
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stat: second most non shootout wins in eastern conferance.

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Old
04-22-2013, 06:59 AM
  #62
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Quote:
Originally Posted by leafspring View Post
Puck possession time increses with power-play opportunities awarded. Speaks nothing as to the quality of the possession time.Tells nothing as to the zone of possession. Shot differential tells nothing of the shot quality. The main reasons the leafs win is because players in the slot pay a price to go there and the whole unit collapses defensively.Teams are pressured when in possession to pass to the perimeter etc,etc over and over again.

The leafs are the second most penalized team in the league behind Philly. The leafs are 9th overall the flyers are 23rd and out of the play-offs. The leafs are 3rd in most shots against(or 28th if you prefer) and the flyers are giving up the 10th least

The leafs have 3rd best penalty kill in the league
The leafs recieve 18th amount of power-play time
The leafs are 10 best 5on5 in the league
4TH highest goals per game team league

No fewer than 5 teams in the top half of the league in power-play will be out of this play-off.

Oddities are everywhere in stats.
Precisely.

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Old
04-22-2013, 08:02 AM
  #63
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People let advanced stats work into their heads and convince themselves they actually mean something.

So what if the stats say this team is playing over its head? In the end we get Ws and thats what matters.

So we'll regress. Woopdedoo. Every team regresses at some point. At max, this team has 31 games remaining in its current state. After that the stats go out the window and the clock is reset. Points go back to 0 in October. There will be roster turnover. This years stats will mean precisely ZERO next season. Zip. Nada. Nothing.

So tell me again why advanced stats matter?

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Old
04-22-2013, 08:21 AM
  #64
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blasted_Sabre View Post
People let advanced stats work into their heads and convince themselves they actually mean something.

So what if the stats say this team is playing over its head? In the end we get Ws and thats what matters.

So we'll regress. Woopdedoo. Every team regresses at some point. At max, this team has 31 games remaining in its current state. After that the stats go out the window and the clock is reset. Points go back to 0 in October. There will be roster turnover. This years stats will mean precisely ZERO next season. Zip. Nada. Nothing.

So tell me again why advanced stats matter?
They matter to people who don't like the results they see and need to find ways to argue against them.

If the Leafs had regressed the way so many thought they would, THEN would be the appropriate time to bring up advanced stats to point out the common patterns and why their regression isn't surprising.

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Old
04-22-2013, 08:26 AM
  #65
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What matters is the Leafs are in the playoffs. Period. What they do from this point forward, is a brand new game. I don't care if they lose in the first round, as long as it's a positive learning curve and they continue improving next year.

Why this year has been positive: The team played fairly well without one of the key players, Lupul. Last season when they lost him, the team completely lost it. Reimer is showing up his critics and bounced back from his injury quite well. Kadri - well, we knew he has the hands, now let's see him mature and hopefully, become the player everyone hopes he will be. Kessel and Phaneuf - don't get credit for the work they do, but are critical to Leafs' position.

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Old
04-22-2013, 08:40 AM
  #66
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This is why I don't read Mirtle anymore. Couple his love of talking bad about the Leafs based on advanced stats with his blog post about not being a Leaf fan, remind me why we should read him again?

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Old
04-22-2013, 09:05 AM
  #67
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These guys get a lot of hate mail from people outside of TO because they write about the Leafs. I don't find his stuff anti or pro Leaf, but his recently found love of advanced stats is humorous.

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Old
04-22-2013, 09:11 AM
  #68
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HockeyCrazed101 View Post
People who vehemently argue against the results produced based on how we should interpret advanced statistics are both lame and are nerds. Why do people care so much about how sustainable the Leafs shooting percentage is? Guess what, they were talking about how the Leafs would come crashing back down to earth after just the first week of the season. We're here 3 months and 45 games later and people are still saying the same thing.

I don't want to discredit what stats can bring to an argument but when you base your entire argument around the numbers and not the context, then your argument will be flawed right out of the gate.
The only stats I care about are on the scoreboard.

Baseball fans are much much worse with advanced stats

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Old
04-22-2013, 09:12 AM
  #69
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Originally Posted by mapes View Post
The only stats I care about are on the scoreboard.
This is all that matters.

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04-22-2013, 09:30 AM
  #70
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Advanced Stats can be useful indicators, when used in the correct context, and typically backed up by other stats. To just cherry pick a popular advanced stat and then make a claim based on that on the other hand is pretty dumb.

Like mentioned above it's not like hockey's advanced stats are anywhere close to baseball's, and they fail to take into account some major factors. PDO is nothing more than team save and shooting percentage added up, with the general idea that because the league average will obviously be 1, team stats will typically revert to 1 over a larger sample size. However one major thing which none of the current 'advanced' stats take into account like mentioned is quality of shots and talent. There have been plenty of times where the Leafs were outshot with low shot totals, but badly outscored their opponents, while none of their goals were lucky and the opponent just kept throwing pucks at the net from bad angles most of the game. On the other hand the Devils are the darlings of the shot based advanced stats because they throw a lot of pucks at the net and don't allow a lot of shots. From the advanced stats you'd think the Devils are a great yet unlucky team, and while they certainly had their share of bad luck, they are also simply very offensively inept.

That said it's still potentially a useful indicator, but not something to be used as a one size fits all stat like many of those on the main boards seem to do. A lot there seem to go to one of these rankings, see the Leafs with a high PDO and simply claim that it's all an indication of luck and that the Leafs must actually suck. On the other hand. what you could say is that the further a team's PDO is from 1, the bigger the chance that they are an outlier and bound to revert to 1 (or at least see a bit of a drop). However while skimming the PDO stats, there seemed to be a pretty clear trend of how the better teams in the league (Hawks, Pens for example) have high PDO and the bad teams in the league (Flames, Panthers) have low PDO. This would make sense considering you expect better teams to get better goal tending and a higher shooting percentage, rather than them just having more shots and this proportionally leading to more goals.

Therefore the idea that PDO will generally revert to 1 seems flawed; instead you'd expect it to revert to some historical average which is a function of both talent and team tactics. Could it be the Leafs have been lucky? Maybe the shooting percentage is a bit on the high side, but I'd personally say that the major part of the Leafs' high PDO is a result of team tactics as well as having some solid talent.

As a contrast, consider the 2009-2010 Leafs. They were 4th in Corsi and 3rd in Fenwick, coupled with a 29th in the league PDO. They ended up finishing 29th in the league. A very good team which was extremely unlucky? Not really, when you consider they had Vesa Toskala in net and their offense would typically involve Jason Blake skating into the offensive zone and firing a harmless shot into the goalie's chest...


I feel the biggest issue though is how people are trying to draw all kinds of conclusions from advanced stats without considering the context for these stats. Take for example this article:

http://hockeyanalysis.com/2013/04/17...ssession-game/

Quote:
FF% is the players FF% when he is on the ice expressed in decimal form. TMFF% is an average of the players team mates FF% when they are not playing with the player in question (i.e. what his team mates do when they are separated from them, or a quality of teammate metric). OppFF% is an average of the players opponents FF% (i.e. a quality of competition metric). From those base stats I took FF% – TMFF% which will tell us which players perform better than their teammates do when they aren’t playing with him (the higher the better).

...

Jay McClement is the Leafs greatest drag on possession. A few weeks ago I posted an article visually showing how much of a drag on possession McClement has been this year and in previous years. McClement’s 5v5 FF% over the past 6 seasons are 46.2%, 46.8%, 45.3%, 47.5%, 46,2% and 36.8% this season.
The writer here is making a fairly extensive mathematical analysis, but seems to completely fail to take into account McClement's role in most games. He's typically out there for defensive assignments, defensive zone draws, protecting a lead in the last few minutes of the game, etc. In those situations you are not particularly likely to shoot a whole lot at your opponent's net...

Quote:
Kulemin is the next biggest drag on possession which might come as a bit of a surprise considering that he has generally been fairly decent in the past. Looking at the second WOWY chart here you can see that nearly every player has a worse CF% (same as FF% but includes shots that have been blocked) with Kulemin than without except for McClement and to a much smaller extent Liles.
Again seems to totally oblivious to Kuli's somewhat changed role this season, with more defensive assignments and being relied on less for offense. Is it really surprising to see the stats like this then?


I'd say this might be a major issue with how these stats are currently used. Useful while used in the correct context, but fairly useless when analyzed without any context.



Just a random idea to take into account shot quality could be to split up the ice in zones, compute average shot percentage from these areas, and then weigh shots by those, rather than just value a shot from the goal line near the boards and the slot differently. Even then it would be pretty imperfect due to the lack of indicator of whether a player is for example wide open or there's three players throwing themselves in front of the puck, but I would guess it should be an improvement...


Last edited by DutchLeafsfan: 04-22-2013 at 09:44 AM.
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Old
04-22-2013, 09:50 AM
  #71
achtungbaby
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We talking about playoffs! I'll worry about next season next season and just enjoy this for the time being as we still have plenty to worry about when we cross that bridge. For now? We talking about playoffs.

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04-22-2013, 10:04 AM
  #72
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Advanced stats are great for nerds and all that but they don't mean **** when it comes time to win. You either win or you don't. No need in analyzing it.

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Old
04-22-2013, 10:07 AM
  #73
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Who cares, opposing fans will always have negative things to say about the Leafs. It's similar to the "What if we win the cup?" thread. If we win, it's only because of the shortened season, it deserves an asterisk, it was because of a lucky injury (Crosby maybe?), one team played bad and we just took advantage, we didn't deserve it because of shot differential (lol)...etc.

No matter what happens to us positively, there will be morons lining up on the main board to give us 1000 reasons why it's undeserved.

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Old
04-22-2013, 10:08 AM
  #74
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mess View Post
When a team is built around Phil Kessel, your not playing a possession\cycle game.

He is very important however when discussing shot differential as no Leaf fires more shots at the net then he does. Unfortunately you can't cycle and retain puck possession when your giving the puck away shooting from everywhere.

So its a catch 22 scenario. Depends on what you place more importance on puck possession or shots on net.
.....and here I've been told that the only thing that matters is results!

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Old
04-22-2013, 10:10 AM
  #75
Nasty Nazem
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Originally Posted by ULF_55 View Post
Remember a few years ago the Oilers had a magical run to the Finals?

It can happen, heck the underachieving Kings went all the way due in no small part to the goaltender.
LA Kings possession numbers were elite last year and advanced stats suggested it was much better than an 8th seed team. They are still a better team than their standing suggests.

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