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Red Fisher Conference 2nd round - Trail Smoke Eaters vs Guelph Platers

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Old
04-23-2013, 09:18 PM
  #1
TheDevilMadeMe
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Red Fisher Conference 2nd round - Trail Smoke Eaters vs Guelph Platers

Trail Smoke Eaters

General Manager: Velociraptor
Home Venue: Cominico Arena



Head Coach: Pat Quinn
Assistant Coach: Emile Francis
Captain: Wayne Gretzky
Assistant Captains: Georges Boucher, Paul Kariya

ROSTER

Michel Goulet - Wayne Gretzky - Bernie Geoffrion
Paul Kariya - Bobby Smith - Mike Gartner
Marty Pavelich - Phil Goyette - Cecil Dillon
Ab McDonald - Craig MacTavish - Bruce MacGregor

Bill Quackenbush - Georges Boucher
Allan Stanley - Glen Harmon
Jack Portland - Dollard St-Laurent

Gump Worsley
Gerry Cheevers

Spares:
Tumba Johansson, C
Al MacAdam, LW/RW
Clem Loughlin, D


POWERPLAY

PP1: Michel Goulet - Wayne Gretzky - Mike Gartner - Georges Boucher - Bernie Geoffrion
PP2: Paul Kariya - Bobby Smith - Cecil Dillon - Allan Stanley - Bill Quackenbush

PENALTY KILL

PK1: Craig MacTavish - Marty Pavelich - Allan Stanley - Bill Quackenbush
PK2: Wayne Gretzky - Bruce MacGregor - Jack Portland - Glen Harmon
PK3: Phil Goyette - Ab McDonald - Allan Stanley - Bill Quackenbush

VS



Guelph Platers
1986 Memorial Cup Champions

Home Rink: Guelph Memorial Gardens (1948)
GM: BraveCanadian

Coaches: Fred Shero, Bruce Boudreau
Captain: Ron Francis
Alternates: Rod Brind'Amour, Sprague Cleghorn

Rick Nash - Ron Francis - Jaromir Jagr
Wayne Cashman - Nels Stewart - Bill Mosienko
Rod Brind'Amour - Bernie Nicholls - Kevin Dineen
Gaetan Duchesne - Bobby Gould - Kelly Miller

Sprague Cleghorn - Harry Howell
Craig Ludwig - Dan Boyle
Charlie Huddy - Bert Corbeau

Vladislav Tretiak
Jean-Sebastien Giguere

Reserves
Rick Vaive
Dion Phaneuf
John Ogrodnick


Powerplay:
PP1: Bernie Nicholls - Nels Stewart - Jaromir Jagr
Ron Francis - Dan Boyle

PP2: Rick Nash - Rod Brind'Amour - Bill Mosienko
Sprague Cleghorn - Bert Corbeau

Penalty Kill:
PK1: Rod Brind'Amour - Kelly Miller - Craig Ludwig - Harry Howell
PK2: Ron Francis - Bobby Gould - Sprague Cleghorn - Charlie Huddy


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Old
04-23-2013, 09:39 PM
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Velociraptor
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Best of luck to you, BC.

I'll probably start adding my thoughts tomorrow or Thursday, I'm out of town from Friday-Sunday without internet access so I'll try and get it all done before I leave.

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04-24-2013, 12:53 AM
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Quote:
Michel Goulet - Wayne Gretzky - Bernie Geoffrion
Paul Kariya - Bobby Smith - Mike Gartner
BC, how are you going to slow down and contain all this offense?

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04-24-2013, 09:26 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gmm View Post
BC, how are you going to slow down and contain all this offense?
Well, to be honest I'm not nearly as concerned about the second line as the first.

The second line is alright but not really anything special in an ATD sense except for maybe their speed on the wings. I like our odds with our second line trading chances with them to be honest.


Now, as for dealing with the first line:

1) We have a coaching advantage again in this series:

To make it even easier for Shero, I think that we'll try to match up one of two lines against Gretzky:

Our 4th line which is a real life checking line that had some success containing Gretzky and can chew up some of his ES time.

Our 1st line, which has a ton of size, a strong two way presence with Francis, and two very strong puck possession players on the wings. If we have the puck then Gretzky's line can't score. No one is Gretzky's equal as an ES player but Jagr is as close as they come.. and frankly with the lack of size and upper level two way play on their line in any form (Goulet was pretty good for a while).. they will have a hell of a time getting it back and we'll get some nice chances to score of our own.

I'm sure that Shero would have some creative ideas for dealing with Gretzky.

Shero will also have Jagr take some shifts in Dineen's spot on the 3rd line to try and avoid any matchup against him. He still gets to play with some good offensive players in that spot too.


2) We have a definite goaltending advantage which will erase some chances and mistakes.

3) We have the best defenseman in the series in Sprague Cleghorn and we have made a point of saving our best pairing for ES play.

4) Gretzky isn't strong on faceoffs and we have a bunch of players taking them that are.. we're going to start with the puck more often than not in any matchup we go into in this years ATD.

We'll have one of our top faceoff men taking every single draw in the series.


Last edited by BraveCanadian: 04-24-2013 at 09:33 AM.
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Old
04-24-2013, 09:40 AM
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Velociraptor
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BraveCanadian View Post
1) We have a coaching advantage again in this series:

To make it even easier for Shero, I think that we'll try to match up one of two lines against Gretzky:

Our 4th line which is a real life checking line that had some success containing Gretzky and can chew up some of his ES time.

Our 1st line, which has a ton of size, a strong two way presence with Francis, and two very strong puck possession players on the wings. If we have the puck then Gretzky's line can't score. No one is Gretzky's equal as an ES player but Jagr is as close as they come.. and frankly with the lack of size and upper level two way play on their line in any form (Goulet was pretty good for a while).. they will have a hell of a time getting it back and we'll get some nice chances to score of our own.

I'm sure that Shero would have some creative ideas for dealing with Gretzky.
Yes agreed you have an advantage in coaching, but its not like Trail will not get their chances at line-matching. Emile Francis is the team tactician and he'll do just what Shero intends to do in terms of matching lines.

That real-life checking line you have reconstructed while being effective, I'm not so sure it carries over the effectiveness on an All-Time context. It's a good line, but I think it runs into some difficulty especially concerning the 3G Network, a legendary offensive unit.

Quote:
4) Gretzky isn't strong on faceoffs and we have a bunch of players taking them that are.. we're going to start with the puck more often than not in any matchup we go into in this years ATD.

We'll have one of our top faceoff men taking every single draw in the series.
Besides Francis, and maybe, maybe Nicholls, who is good at faceoffs?

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04-24-2013, 09:43 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Velociraptor View Post
Besides Francis, and maybe, maybe Nicholls, who is good at faceoffs?
I'm assuming BrindAmour is taking faceoffs for the 3rd line

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04-24-2013, 09:43 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Velociraptor View Post
Besides Francis, and maybe, maybe Nicholls, who is good at faceoffs?
Brind'amour? Stewart? I have three players generally acknowledged as being among the best faceoff artists ever.

The puck.

It is ours.


Last edited by BraveCanadian: 04-24-2013 at 09:50 AM.
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04-24-2013, 09:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BraveCanadian View Post
Brind'amour? Stewart? I have three players generally acknowledged as being among the best faceoff artists ever.

The puck.

It is ours.
Sorry, I knew Brind'Amour is an elite faceoff artist. I forgot you had made the decision for him to shift to the wing after taking faceoffs.

Would you like to provide some quotes on Stewart and faceoffs? I couldn't locate any and your bio doesn't seem to have anything supporting that. But yes you have strength with Francis and Brindy taking draws.

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04-24-2013, 09:43 PM
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First Lines:

Best way to go about this is probably comparing the top on each line vs. their counterpart, would go something like:

Gretzky/Jagr
Geoffrion/Francis
Goulet/Nash

Jagr is certainly continuing to raise his stock and is certainly a top-20 player of All-Time, however, just like every other offensive forward, he just cannot compare to Gretz.

7-year VsX scores

Rank Player Rank
1 Wayne Gretzky 155.1
2 Gordie Howe 127.2
3 Phil Esposito 123.4
4 Mario Lemieux 120.4
5 Jaromir Jagr 114.6

Might be the best method of measuring, while Jagr has an impressive placement in the top-5, he is also a considerable amount beneath Gretzky in terms of score. Jagr, albeit an offensive force is inferior to Gretzky.

Geoffrion and Francis could be a little more interesting due to intangibles. Geoffrion is the right wing on a line with the best playmaker of all-time, Gretzky/Geoffrion appears to be the strongest C/W combo in the ATD offensively. Francis, a defensive stalwart who is also extremely adept offensively.

Who were Francis' regular linemates? I ask this because I am really not sure.

VsX

Rank Player Rank
33 Bernie Geoffrion 91.4
54 Ron Francis 87.6

Closer than the numerical rank indicates, but Geoffrion was a stronger scorer than Francis. I think that gives him an edge, especially having a perennial set-up man, but it is close due to the fact Francis brings defensive value to the table.

Goulet vs. Nash is where it could really separate this line. You have a much weaker first line centre because you took a fall at that position to get stronger at positions that I do not have as much depth in.

Goulet also is a good corner guy and has defensive value, his Selke voting is definitely noteworthy. Nash is a tough guy to place on an all-time scale, and I'm really not sure it's on a first line. I know you've tirelessly reiterated its the right spot for him next to Francis and Jagr, but he's a weak counterpart and I'm not sure his utility is being maximized.

For good measure, let's scan VsX:

Rank Player Rank
98 Michel Goulet 79.3
247 Rick Nash 63.5

Again, numerical ranking is not a factor (it probably never is come to think of it ) but there is quite the difference in between the two. Nash is not gifted defensively, nor is overly physical. Goulet holds a substantial edge over Nash.

Advantage: Trail, three of my first four picks were constructed into my first line. You'd think 3 top-128 players would make for an excellent first line, and so it has. This line has the ability to take control of a game, and thats exactly what they'll be relied upon to do this series.

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04-24-2013, 10:21 PM
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Second Lines:

Kariya/Stewart

You got excellent value on Nels Stewart, and he's among better second liners in this draft. In his company includes Paul Kariya.

Nels Stewart 90.5
Paul Kariya 85.4

Similar to Geoffrion/Francis, a little further apart. Stewart holds an edge offensively, and is flanked by two wingers who can get a lot out of him offensively. Kariya, is below offensively, but one of the best skaters between Stewart however, is extremely slow. There's lots of evidence to support this, and Trail is built for speed. A very quick team in transition that includes a large group of fantastic skaters.

Gartner holds an edge on Cashman offensively, Cashman's best offensive seasons also came alongside Phil Esposito. But he's also an elite corner man, and plays an integral role to this lines success. His offense this series will come from dishing pucks to Stewart. Cashman plays a bigger role on the line as the primary puck-winner, who is very good at what he does.

Mosienko is better than Smith, however his VsX scores are inflated due to War year scoring. Smith may be seen as a weak second line centre, which compared to other second line centres he certainly is. But he has two excellent scoring wingers on his line, I think he has a similar situation to Nash but is in a better position to succeed due to the fact both Kariya and Gartner can create offense as well.

Advantage: Guelph Both lines work well, and will generate offense. I think Guelph's is a little stronger.

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04-24-2013, 10:46 PM
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Third Lines:

EMILE FRANCIS PLANS ON MATCHING OUR THIRD LINE AGAINST THE JAGR LINE

Brind'Amour is an elite third-liner, however the other two pieces of the line are pretty weak. Although, Nicholls offense definitely brings up the value. Dillon, is an elite-third liner and Goyette and Pavelich combine to make this a very strong third line that plays a adept 200-foot game.

Rank Table Rank
105Cecil Dillon78.4
147Rod Brind'Amour72.8

In terms of offense, Dillon is the superior. I think we can give Brind'Amour a defensive nod, but I don't really know how to concede this, considering Dillon is also a strong defensive player. Both are elite checking players, and I think they are a wash to compare.

Pavelich is one of the best checking forwards in NHL history, he'll be seeing a lot of Jaromir Jagr. He is nothing special offensively, but a phenomenal defensive forward. Nicholls is an offensive stud who makes a nice combination with Brind'Amour.

Nicholls VsX rank is 80.3, making him the strongest offensive player on the line. But he is also a non-factor to ineffective on a checking line.

Goyette is a great two-way centre that is a fixture on a checking line, his offense is also very nice and when this line is not matching up with the oppositions' best, Goyette will be dishing passes to Cecil Dillon who has six Top-10's in goal-scoring (2nd, 4th, 6th, 6th, 6th, 6th). Makes for an incredibly formidable centre/wing connection. Dineen is absolutely behind Goyette offensively and defensively. Dineen was known to have a bit of defensive value, and was tough, probably an average to below-average checking line forward.

Nicholls VsX = 80.3
Dillon VsX = 78.4
Goyette VsX = 74.9
Brind'Amour VsX = 72.8
Dineen VsX = 50.1
Pavelich VsX = 45.7

Guelph 3rd Line Average = 67.7
Trail 3rd Line Average = 66.6

Extremely close offensively, but much further off defensively.

Advantage: Trail, two strong offensive third lines, however Trail's line is much more competent defensively.

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04-25-2013, 11:19 AM
  #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Velociraptor View Post
Sorry, I knew Brind'Amour is an elite faceoff artist. I forgot you had made the decision for him to shift to the wing after taking faceoffs.
Yeah I moved Nicholls up to get more use out of his offense (and Brind'amour's for that matter) but Brind'amour will still take the draws.

Nice bonus is that if he gets waved out Nicholls is still solid enough.

Quote:
Would you like to provide some quotes on Stewart and faceoffs? I couldn't locate any and your bio doesn't seem to have anything supporting that. But yes you have strength with Francis and Brindy taking draws.
He taught Teeder Kennedy.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Velociraptor View Post
First Lines:
My only quibbles about this is that you say Goulet's Selke record is noteworthy when it is an 8th and 22nd.

Meanwhile you say that Geoffrion and Francis is close because Geoffrion is a better scorer while Francis is better defensively.

Because the constant criticism of Francis' offense is that his peak was with Jagr, I'll do the same thing as last series: even if you remove those seasons altogether Francis is still a very strong offensive player (as shown in the previous series he is a bit less than Hawerchuk AFTER completely removing them).. meanwhile his Selke record is: 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 6th, 8th, 12th

Now I think *that* is noteworthy and important in this comparison since if Goulet is your noteworthy two-way guy here.. it isn't close.

And while Jagr of course doesn't match up to Gretzky offensively because no one does.. he is as close as you can get at ES as prime players. His puck possession is off the charts and his adjusted plus minus shows the benefits of this over his career.. While Jagr isn't a great "defensive" player he is an enormously positive influence on his team over his career.

Career
PlayerAdjusted +/- (68-2012)
Jagr499
Gretzky339

And to put Gretzky in his best light:

First 10 Seasons
PlayerAdjusted +/-
Gretzky 80-89397
Jagr 91-00327


My only goal is for my checking line and first line (when we win most of the matchups due to our coaching) to keep the ledger close enough that our other advantages win the games.

Nash of course doesn't look very good at all when looking at points because he is a very one sided goal scorer thus far in his career. He does bring what I need to the line, though.. puck possession. (and a big shot as another option for Francis)

Of course we're going to give up ground against a line like you've assembled.. the goal is to limit how much.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Velociraptor View Post
Second Lines:

Kariya/Stewart

You got excellent value on Nels Stewart, and he's among better second liners in this draft. In his company includes Paul Kariya.

Nels Stewart 90.5
Paul Kariya 85.4

Similar to Geoffrion/Francis, a little further apart. Stewart holds an edge offensively, and is flanked by two wingers who can get a lot out of him offensively. Kariya, is below offensively, but one of the best skaters between Stewart however, is extremely slow. There's lots of evidence to support this, and Trail is built for speed. A very quick team in transition that includes a large group of fantastic skaters.
Nels Stewart could very well be the best second liner in this draft when he has wings like Cashman and Mosienko with him. The line is built to maximize what Stewart does best.

As for the speed thing.. I'm not certain it is going to be a big issue. Obviously ,even with whatever skating speed Stewart had, he was still incredibly effective. There are lots of references to him not trying hard while somehow always arriving at the right place at the right time to score. Secondly there is some evidence that it might be somewhat overstated, or at least that he could use that big frame to hang on to the puck regardless:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Playing the Field, Dink Carroll, Montreal Gazette, Feb 13, 1959
...

Beliveau has often been likened to the late Nels Stewart. Toe Blake was asked if Stewart was a slow skater, as has been alleged.

"I've heard that and it wasn't true," he said. "You couldn't catch him from behind. He didn't look to be going fast because he took those long strides. Beliveau is like that, too."

http://news.google.com/newspapers?id...g=6183,2273197


Also, vsX is flattering to Kariya in this case because while he is the more modern player in this comparison, he has relatively much less longevity as a top player than Stewart does in his era.

So if we look at finishes as another comparison between these two:

NameFinishes
Stewart 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 10
Kariya 3, 3, 4, 7


Quote:
Gartner holds an edge on Cashman offensively, Cashman's best offensive seasons also came alongside Phil Esposito. But he's also an elite corner man, and plays an integral role to this lines success. His offense this series will come from dishing pucks to Stewart. Cashman plays a bigger role on the line as the primary puck-winner, who is very good at what he does.

True, Gartner does hold an edge over Cashman but I see you have omitted how much it is while you have been citing all these vsX numbers.

Player vsX
Gartner 68.5
Cashman 65

I am sure that is a lot closer than most people would have thought (including myself - obviously Gartner would slaughter him offensively in longevity).

As a detraction you say that Cashman was alongside Esposito while he was producing that offense.. fair enough. Here he is alongside a player who is very similar -- Nels Stewart.

As soon as we take intangibles into account I easily see this is a win for Cashman over their primes.


Quote:
Mosienko is better than Smith, however his VsX scores are inflated due to War year scoring. Smith may be seen as a weak second line centre, which compared to other second line centres he certainly is. But he has two excellent scoring wingers on his line, I think he has a similar situation to Nash but is in a better position to succeed due to the fact both Kariya and Gartner can create offense as well.
While citing all these vsX numbers you left out Smith's.

I also see why:

PlayervsX
Mosienko82.2
Smith69.1

Mosienko always gets discounted for the war years but he was still registering top ten seasons into the late 40s and early 50s so I don't think he needs a huge discount. He also does inject a healthy dose of speed to what would otherwise be a pretty plodding line.. so I think he helps mitigate that for us somewhat.

Even after discounting Mosienko some.. our second line is better offensively than yours and frankly that is practically all your second line brings besides speed while doing it. Cashman has more intangibles in his little finger.

Quote:
Advantage: Guelph Both lines work well, and will generate offense. I think Guelph's is a little stronger.
I agree with you that our second line is an advantage to us over yours. However, I think it is more than a "little stronger" overall.

Just as you say drafting all those players early for your first line gave you an very strong first line, you have to know that leaves you weaker in other places.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Velociraptor View Post
Third Lines:

EMILE FRANCIS PLANS ON MATCHING OUR THIRD LINE AGAINST THE JAGR LINE
Please do. Jagr plays a lot at ES, and the more time Gretzky is on the bench the easier this series will be for us.

Quote:
Brind'Amour is an elite third-liner, however the other two pieces of the line are pretty weak. Although, Nicholls offense definitely brings up the value. Dillon, is an elite-third liner and Goyette and Pavelich combine to make this a very strong third line that plays a adept 200-foot game.

Rank Table Rank
105Cecil Dillon78.4
147Rod Brind'Amour72.8

In terms of offense, Dillon is the superior. I think we can give Brind'Amour a defensive nod, but I don't really know how to concede this, considering Dillon is also a strong defensive player. Both are elite checking players, and I think they are a wash to compare.
I don't know enough about Dillon to know if being a strong defensive player in reputation matches up to being a more modern two-time Selke winner who received Selke votes in practically as many seasons as Dillon's whole career... so I don't know..


Quote:
Pavelich is one of the best checking forwards in NHL history, he'll be seeing a lot of Jaromir Jagr. He is nothing special offensively, but a phenomenal defensive forward.
I'm good with that matchup.. when you are able to get it. For the reason above.


Quote:
Nicholls is an offensive stud who makes a nice combination with Brind'Amour.

Nicholls VsX rank is 80.3, making him the strongest offensive player on the line. But he is also a non-factor to ineffective on a checking line.
My 3rd line isn't specifically a checking line. Why would I waste two guys like Nicholls and Brind'amour and a 2-time 40 goal scorer like Dineen just checking?


Quote:
Dineen is absolutely behind Goyette offensively and defensively. Dineen was known to have a bit of defensive value, and was tough, probably an average to below-average checking line forward.
Kevin Dineen has just as noteworthy a Selke record as Goulet does.

And he was good enough offensively to pot 40 goals twice and 30 goals 5 times while bringing a ton of grit.


Quote:
Advantage: Trail, two strong offensive third lines, however Trail's line is much more competent defensively.
I don't think they are that close offensively.

As you said, Nicholls is the best offensive player on either line, and you only have two players capable of much offense at all.. one of which you have admitted Brind'amour is close to.

Dineen is easily better offensively that Pavelich and I think it is by more than vsX makes it appear.

So I think we are better offensively and I think defensively you are .. overall it probably depends on what people value.


Last edited by BraveCanadian: 04-25-2013 at 11:40 AM.
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Old
04-25-2013, 11:54 AM
  #13
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Fourth Lines:

Both lines seem to operate at a defensive-first standpoint, and appear to be Guelph's main checking line.

Let's take a look at some notable Selke finishes: (doesn't apply to MacGregor and McDonald, whose careers were before the Selke era.

MacTavish - 4, 9, 10

Gould - 3, 3
Miller - 3, 7, 10
Duchense - highest notable finish was 14th

4 Top-3 finishes is definitely impressive on Guelph's side.

We'll go a little more in depth during the lines' tenure in Washington using GF/GA ratio while they were on and off the ice.

PlayerR-ONR-OFFAEV+/-
B. Gould1.300.9515
K. Miller1.650.9711
Duchense1.290.9416

Miller played 39 games after being acquired in a mid-season trade. Not really sure how we'd get an adjusted R-ON and R-OFF for him for the entire year, his numbers in New York that season really brought down his averages.

The line was only together for one year, but it was a pretty good season for them. It was Miller's second best defensive season, and it was among Gould and Duchesne's top-3 best defensive years.

I'll take the second best years of Trail's three best players and see how it compares.

PlayerR-ONR-OFFAEV+/-
MacTavish1.451.504
MacGregor1.511.8520
McDonald1.551.0220

MacTavish and MacGregor would've played on high-scoring teams, a luxury Gould, Duchesne, Miller and McDonald didn't have.

The Washington line didn't necessarily play on an overly high-scoring team either. Mike Gartner being clearly the top offensive force, followed by Gould, Duchense, Craig Laughlin and Dave Christian.

The Washington line point finishes were good for 5th, 7th and 10th in team scoring. While they were able to score, they were also able to be solid defensively. It was an interesting line to re-create because they only had one season together, mind you its pretty impressive.

However, I don't think any of these players are overly good fourth line players. MacTavish I think is much better than the other five players on both lines. It makes for a good line that works both ways, and as you can see from the GF/GA Ratios that they had better GF/GA ratios than the rest of the team. This is partly due to a team with a lack of scoring. MacTavish was on a team with Bourque, Middleton and Pederson. MacGregor - Ratelle, Gilbert, Tkaczuk.

The method of comparison I used is definitely raw, and if someone with a better interpretation of this has any way of making it more concise or informative, please chip in.

All things considering, even though Guelph has a recreated line, they will not be as offensively strong as they appear. Because their other three lines are better offensively. It's a good checking line, but I don't think they are overly up for the tough assignment against Trail's first line. They were a good line in the NHL, but I don't know strong a line it is in the ATD.

Trail's fourth line is fast, strong offensively and includes three reputable checking line players.

Advantage: Trail

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04-25-2013, 12:00 PM
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I also obviously will have Gretzky's line on the ice much more than my third line, that line will obviously see the most ice out of anyone on my team. But when he isn't on the ice when Jagr's line is, Francis will have the line out against your first line.

Thought I should clarify that.

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04-25-2013, 12:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Velociraptor View Post
Fourth Lines:

Both lines seem to operate at a defensive-first standpoint, and appear to be Guelph's main checking line.

Let's take a look at some notable Selke finishes: (doesn't apply to MacGregor and McDonald, whose careers were before the Selke era.

MacTavish - 4, 9, 10

Gould - 3, 3
Miller - 3, 7, 10
Duchense - highest notable finish was 14th

4 Top-3 finishes is definitely impressive on Guelph's side.

We'll go a little more in depth during the lines' tenure in Washington using GF/GA ratio while they were on and off the ice.

PlayerR-ONR-OFFAEV+/-
B. Gould1.300.9515
K. Miller1.650.9711
Duchense1.290.9416

Miller played 39 games after being acquired in a mid-season trade. Not really sure how we'd get an adjusted R-ON and R-OFF for him for the entire year, his numbers in New York that season really brought down his averages.

The line was only together for one year, but it was a pretty good season for them. It was Miller's second best defensive season, and it was among Gould and Duchesne's top-3 best defensive years.

I'll take the second best years of Trail's three best players and see how it compares.

PlayerR-ONR-OFFAEV+/-
MacTavish1.451.504
MacGregor1.511.8520
McDonald1.551.0220

MacTavish and MacGregor would've played on high-scoring teams, a luxury Gould, Duchesne, Miller and McDonald didn't have.

The Washington line didn't necessarily play on an overly high-scoring team either. Mike Gartner being clearly the top offensive force, followed by Gould, Duchense, Craig Laughlin and Dave Christian.

The Washington line point finishes were good for 5th, 7th and 10th in team scoring. While they were able to score, they were also able to be solid defensively. It was an interesting line to re-create because they only had one season together, mind you its pretty impressive.

However, I don't think any of these players are overly good fourth line players. MacTavish I think is much better than the other five players on both lines. It makes for a good line that works both ways, and as you can see from the GF/GA Ratios that they had better GF/GA ratios than the rest of the team. This is partly due to a team with a lack of scoring. MacTavish was on a team with Bourque, Middleton and Pederson. MacGregor - Ratelle, Gilbert, Tkaczuk.

The method of comparison I used is definitely raw, and if someone with a better interpretation of this has any way of making it more concise or informative, please chip in.

All things considering, even though Guelph has a recreated line, they will not be as offensively strong as they appear. Because their other three lines are better offensively. It's a good checking line, but I don't think they are overly up for the tough assignment against Trail's first line. They were a good line in the NHL, but I don't know strong a line it is in the ATD.

Trail's fourth line is fast, strong offensively and includes three reputable checking line players.

Advantage: Trail
Wow I have no idea what you just did there.

Lets just cut to this: you say you feel MacTavish is the best player on either line but,

1) he wasn't as good defensively as either of Gould or Miller -- at least according to their Selke records you presented. (You played down that Duchesne had 10 years of admittedly small Selke votes.)

and

2) offensively at ES - which is all we care about for fourth lines - generally:

PlayerGP$ESP/SPeak Actual ES pts
Miller10573045
Duchesne10282949
Gould6972948
MacTavish10932839

So in other words.... our whole line is better, or at least in the running to equal, the player you feel is the best on either line.

Easy Advantage Guelph

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04-25-2013, 12:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Velociraptor View Post
I also obviously will have Gretzky's line on the ice much more than my third line, that line will obviously see the most ice out of anyone on my team. But when he isn't on the ice when Jagr's line is, Francis will have the line out against your first line.

Thought I should clarify that.
Point taken.

And that would be when our coaching advantage kicks in.

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04-25-2013, 12:32 PM
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You're not bringing in the intangibles MacTavish has into the equation here.

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04-25-2013, 12:39 PM
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You're not bringing in the intangibles MacTavish has into the equation here.
The intangibles he has are the same ones that all my guys have.

Hard working, good at penalty killing, etc.

Except they all wore helmets.

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04-25-2013, 12:44 PM
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The intangibles he has are the same ones that all my guys have.

Hard working, good at penalty killing, etc.

Except they all wore helmets.
MacTavish was known as a tenacious body checker, and was also very good on the draw.

There's no record of any of those players being physical or being good at faceoffs. MacTavish is the top face-off player on the team, and although is inferior to Francis/Brind'Amour he can certainly win a few battles with them.

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04-25-2013, 12:56 PM
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Defence - First Pairings:

This looks awfully close to me upon first glance. Cleghorn is the best of the bunch, but Quackenbush is certainly not far behind.

Cleghorn excelled at all areas of his game, his biggest weakness front and centre was discipline. His rugged game is a valuable asset, but I think he could definitely get nailed for a lot of penalties in this series. Regardless, he's a good #1 defenseman. Quackenbush was a fantastic positional defenseman who was also good offensively, wasn't very physical but was very efficient defensively where he didn't have to use violent physicality or strength to be effective. Cleghorn holds a slight edge here.

Boucher is essentially a Cleghorn-lite IMO, and is a very good #2 here. Howell is definitely below average as a #2, not out of place, but certainly not spectacular.

The margin between Boucher and Howell is greater than Cleghorn and Quackenbush. Advantage: Trail, a good puck moving unit, that brings a little bit of everything. Howell is fairly one dimensional, and doesn't bring the same versatility as either of the players on Trail's first pairing.

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04-25-2013, 01:01 PM
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Second Pairings:

I've voiced my opinions on this pairing in the assassination thread earlier, and its really unfortunate you fell victim to having a better perception on a player than what they really are. Trust me, I almost made the same mistake as Corbeau was certainly on my radar.

Boyle is an excellent #4, but a below-average #3. Allan Stanley is an excellent #3 and despite being incredibly slow, excels at all facets of the game and was a solid defenseman.

Ludwig, a passable #4 and a great #5, is solid defensively and complements Boyle nicely. Harmon is a good #4, and a great skater to neutralize the pairings skating ability as Stanley is definitely not a great skater.

Moderate Advantage: Trail Stanley is far and away the best defenseman on either pairing. And Harmon also holds an edge over Ludwig.

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04-25-2013, 01:10 PM
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Third Pairings:

Corbeau probably belongs on a bottom pairing as a physical presence who can chip in offensively, his positional game seems to be for the most part unwritten. St-Laurent was a solid positional defenseman, who liked to bang bodies and could lead the rush when relied upon.

Huddy IMO is a #7 at best, he was a by-product of Gretzky and just unspectacular. He had some serious inconsistencies throughout his career and I remember him being a giveaway machine. Portland was a good defensive defenseman who was very physical, was not usually thought of to move the puck.

Advantage: Trail, BC is probably getting sick of me expressing my dislike for Huddy, but I really don't believe he belongs here. Corbeau is alright, but this pairing is just really unspectacular.

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04-25-2013, 01:17 PM
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Goaltending:

Not much to be said here, Tretiak is a great goaltender, and he will come up huge in some games.

My biggest concern is if he can handle the intense workload, the defensive corps is extremely underwhelming past the first pairing. The 2nd/3rd units aren't very good and do not have a lot of defensive composure. I know they will already be relying a lot on ES play from Cleghorn/Howell, but with four able scoring lines on the Smoke Eaters I worry a lot that this defensive corps will not be able to contain the powerful offensive waves sent by Trail.

Worsley is a good, not great goaltender who has some championship experience, and was certainly an integral part of the Habs' championships. However, he'll need to be at the top of his game against an offensive force. Cheevers is a solid playoff backup, who has one of the better post-season resumes remaining in the ATD playoffs.

Giguere is a decent backup who probably won't see much time unless Tretiak gets chased.

Moderate Advantage: Guelph, keep in mind Tretiak will have a lot of work, and could see up to 40-odd shots a game, Trail is a team that will also get very good scoring chances.

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04-25-2013, 01:23 PM
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Coaching:

Shero >>>>> Quinn
Francis > Boudreau

Shero will mix and match and when it counts he will get some pretty good matchups. The combination of Quinn and Francis will get the most out of their lines and try and get their desired lines out to match the opposition. Boudreau seems like a bit of a non-factor to me, especially with a pretty strong head coach who knows what he is doing.

Advantage: Guelph

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04-25-2013, 01:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Velociraptor View Post
MacTavish was known as a tenacious body checker, and was also very good on the draw.

There's no record of any of those players being physical or being good at faceoffs. MacTavish is the top face-off player on the team, and although is inferior to Francis/Brind'Amour he can certainly win a few battles with them.
I don't think any of Gould, Duchense or Miller were particularly spectacular body checkers (at least not in my memory) but they were all known as very tenacious grinders.

In any case, I don't think that is going to tip things either way for you.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Velociraptor View Post
Defence - First Pairings:

This looks awfully close to me upon first glance. Cleghorn is the best of the bunch, but Quackenbush is certainly not far behind.
Quackenbush is a bottom 5 #1 defenseman in this..

With 32 teams you'd assume the defensemen drafted around 16 to be the average ones -- not that the distribution is exactly equal but just roughly.

Cleghorn was ranked 15th in the HOH Top defensemen. (and I drafted him 19)

Quackenbush was drafted and was tied for 26th in the HOH Top Defensemen project.


Quote:
Cleghorn excelled at all areas of his game, his biggest weakness front and centre was discipline. His rugged game is a valuable asset, but I think he could definitely get nailed for a lot of penalties in this series.
Against your mostly non-physical scoring forwards he is not going
to have a lot of trouble clearing the front of the net.

Will they pay the price to go there?


Quote:
Quackenbush was a fantastic positional defenseman who was also good offensively, wasn't very physical but was very efficient defensively where he didn't have to use violent physicality or strength to be effective. Cleghorn holds a slight edge here.
And that lack of physicality by your #1 could bite you when Nels Stewart decides to plant himself in front of your goal.

Or go into the corner against Wayne Cashman.

Or when he has to try and get the puck away from 3 front liners on our team who are all 6-3 and 200+.


Quote:
Boucher is essentially a Cleghorn-lite IMO, and is a very good #2 here. Howell is definitely below average as a #2, not out of place, but certainly not spectacular.
Again, with 32 teams you'd assume that around 48 would be the average #2 which is exactly where Boucher ranked in the HOH top defensemen study and close to where you drafted him (43).

As you say, Howell seems to be generally considered a below average #2.

Quote:
The margin between Boucher and Howell is greater than Cleghorn and Quackenbush. Advantage: Trail, a good puck moving unit, that brings a little bit of everything. Howell is fairly one dimensional, and doesn't bring the same versatility as either of the players on Trail's first pairing.
So Average #1 + Below Average #2 < Below Average #1 + Average #2?

No.. First pairings are probably an advantage for us because we have the best player of the bunch. At worst it is a wash.


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