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Tracking the Playoffs Thread

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Old
04-05-2013, 11:16 AM
  #1
Kev22
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Tracking the Playoffs Thread

I was looking at the final 11 games of the schedule. This is not going to be easy. 4 at home, 7 on the road. In my opinion, they have to win all four home games and find a way to get at least 8 points out of the final 7 road games. Here's what's left:

@St. Louis (need a solid road effort to get a point)
Minnesota (must win)
San Jose (must win)
St. Louis (must win)
@Minnesota (with Gabby on board, we've got a chance, need a point)
@Colorado (must win)
@Anaheim (we play them tough, can we get a point?)
@Los Angeles (feeling a loss)
@San Jose (feeling a loss)
@Dallas (must win)
Nashville (must win)

I think that if they protect home ice, Colorado and Dallas on the road are winnable. That's 12 points. If it's going to take 55 points to get in, that leaves 5 games to get 4 points. What happens? Can this team go 7-2-2 or a clip similar to that?

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Old
04-05-2013, 11:20 AM
  #2
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Hey CBJ HF-ers. This seems as good a place as any to have a "tracking the playoff push" thread. Share percentages and other such tracking stuff in other threads as appropriate, but let's try and make this a clearinghouse for that stuff, where people know where to find it.

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04-05-2013, 11:20 AM
  #3
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i think we need to win at least 7 to feel pretty safe, i think we could sneak in at 6 wins

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Old
04-05-2013, 11:21 AM
  #4
blahblah
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Sorry, can't project what this team is going to do. I have no guess. Honestly, I'm not sure it matters all that much beyond finishing as strong as possible.

We've exceeded expectations, we've gave us something to cheer about, and we've set ourselves up for a good run in the East next season.

If we make the playoffs, great. I would love it. I'm ready for the playoffs. If we just don't have quite enough to make it, that's fine.

Supposedly 54 or 55 points puts us virtually in. I tend to agree.

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04-05-2013, 11:32 AM
  #5
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I agree with blahblah (gasp!).

Play as hard as possible. If we make the playoffs, great. From a fan perspective this season is pretty much a win compared to where we were months ago.

Don't tell the players though. We want a team of hard SOB's where winning is an expectation.

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Old
04-05-2013, 11:34 AM
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I think the recent indicators are that it is now estimated to take 53 points to get in but regardless, it is still an uphill battle.

St. Louis - 2nd night of a back to back for both teams. Blues goaltending is beatable. 2 points
Wild - at home. Wild has lost 3 in a row. winnable game - 2 points.
San Jose - at home but the Sharks are hot - 0 points
Blues again - at home - could be a tough one - 1 point
Wild again - 2nd night of a back to back. 1st game on a road trip - 0 points
Avalanche - beatable - 2 points
Ducks - a tough one but we can play them tough. They've cooled off and are playing .500 hockey recently - 1 point
Kings - Loss because the clock stops again "mysteriously" and its a 2nd night of a back to back - 0 points
Sharks again on the road - desperations sets in - 2 points
Stars on the road - who do they have left? - 2 points
Predators at home - playoffs on the line at home - 2 points

Current total: 39
last 11 games: 6-3-2
Final point total: 53 with a clinch or barely miss out on home ice to close the season.

I will also predict that it will be the Red Wings who miss out on 8th and not the Blues.

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Old
04-05-2013, 11:38 AM
  #7
leesmith
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@St. Louis: At least 1 point
Minnesota: 2 points
San Jose: 2 points
St. Louis: At least 1 point
@Minnesota: 1 point
@Colorado: 2 points
@Anaheim: 1 point
@Los Angeles: 0 points
@San Jose: 0 points
@Dallas: 2 points
Nashville: 2 points

14 points in 11 games. 53 points total. Don't know if that's enough.

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Old
04-05-2013, 11:39 AM
  #8
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I predict the Kia Hamsters are on TV a few more times.

And they'll continue to make me long for FarmersOnly.com

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04-05-2013, 11:41 AM
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Kev22
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Just doing some quick math. We've played 37 games and amassed 39 points. That's 39 of a possible 74 points (53%). If we get 53% of the remaining 22 points left, that's roughly 12 points. That's probably on the outside looking in. We're going to need to take at least 60% of the remaining points I think to possibly have have a chance. Three point games are huge this time of year to determining what the line will be.

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Old
04-05-2013, 11:47 AM
  #10
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The Blues have a relatively easy schedule, and play 8 of 13 at home. Their last six are Phoenix, Dallas, at Colorado, Colorado, Calgary, Chicago. I think they are in.

The last seven days of the season has Edmonton playing 5 games: Anaheim, Anaheim, Chicago, at Minnesota, Vancouver. I think they will fall out at that point.

That leave us and Detroit. Two points behind (and a tie-breaker?) and level on games. Tonight they are in Colorado, while we are in St. Louis. Go Avs.

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04-05-2013, 11:57 AM
  #11
Skraut
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Columbus Mike View Post
The last seven days of the season has Edmonton playing 5 games: Anaheim, Anaheim, Chicago, at Minnesota, Vancouver. I think they will fall out at that point.
There is a difference between playing top teams a few months out from the playoffs, and playing the same team a few days before the playoffs when they're resting top players for the playoffs

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04-05-2013, 11:57 AM
  #12
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Detroit and Minny are definitely who we should be eyeing, not St. Louis. They are pretty much a lock to get in. I think we finish 8th and Detroit finishes 9th, and the Wings can lament their sweep at the hands of the CBJ as the reason why.

I think it finishes:

CHI
ANA
VAN
LA
SJ
STL
MIN
CBJ
--------
DET
EDM
PHX
NSH
DAL
COL
CGY

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Old
04-05-2013, 12:08 PM
  #13
Kev22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DJAnimosity View Post
Detroit and Minny are definitely who we should be eyeing, not St. Louis. They are pretty much a lock to get in. I think we finish 8th and Detroit finishes 9th, and the Wings can lament their sweep at the hands of the CBJ as the reason why.

I think it finishes:

CHI
ANA
VAN
LA
SJ
STL
MIN
CBJ
--------
DET
EDM
PHX
NSH
DAL
COL
CGY
Those would all be good playoff series too. The Jackets have played the Hawks very tough this year. It would be interesting to see if they can get in and then ramp it up.

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Old
04-05-2013, 12:22 PM
  #14
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The way the West is shaping up, 51 may well be enough to get the job done. Chicago and Anaheim so far out in front blow up any way of trying to use averages to deduce the likely 8th spot.

(But what would I know, it's not like I do this every year or anything.)

Personal prediction, I crow no matter what happens.

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Old
04-05-2013, 12:38 PM
  #15
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I'm in the "finish hard and what happens, happens" group. Continue to get better as a unit even if that means we just barely miss out. The expectations for next season will be built on the backs of this run, and the excitement will carry into summer where we have three picks, potentially two lottery. I think even if we miss, we get a great spark (trade or draft) and there's a fire in the bellies of the team heading into the fall. Might be enough to get my season tickets back...

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04-05-2013, 12:53 PM
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The curse of J-Bo is going to take St. Louis down. Book it.

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Old
04-05-2013, 01:01 PM
  #17
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I have a feeling the last game of the regular season against Nashville has the potential to be colossal.

Colorado and Dallas should be wins. San Jose seems to struggle at Nationwide, but The Tank has been a barn of doom and they can't have that happen in that game. St. Louis is down Halak, which helps. Beyond that, it's hard to predict.

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04-05-2013, 01:16 PM
  #18
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colossal
There's a new one. I like.

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04-05-2013, 01:36 PM
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Have to win in regulation vs STL. Only gaining one point on a team right in front of you won't help. If Bob holds up and Gabby can get going, this team WILL make the playoffs and give Chicago a tough series. The Minnesota games might make Gabby go harder, playing a former team and give the whole team an edge in those games.

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04-05-2013, 02:15 PM
  #20
WALLY
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I predict the Kia Hamsters are on TV a few more times.

And they'll continue to make me long for FarmersOnly.com
My 15 month old loves that commercial... dancing side to side screaming... it's great.

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Old
04-05-2013, 05:15 PM
  #21
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The easiest way for me to look at this is this: tonight is the continuation of a 12 game/ 24 point series. They need 17 to get in the way I see it.

2 down, 15 to go. I don't care what other teams do since the CBJ have little to do with that. It's distracting and a waste of time and energy. The CBJ control their own fate - win, 15 of the next 22 points, and they're in.

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04-05-2013, 05:56 PM
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Before the trades I thought they would finish 3-7-3 for 44 points. That appears (hopefully) out the window. Who knows is the only answer. This team has confounded all season so they could tank or they could finish very strong. Lets win tonight and then the Wild on Sun.

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04-05-2013, 06:05 PM
  #23
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I don't know whether we'll make it or not. My gut says the hill is just a bit too high. We have to play like champions just to have a chance. But I'm sure with this team that the last games will all be entertaining, competitive hockey and when the season is done we'll be proud of what this team has done.

It also means this will be a really long summer as we anticipate next season.

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Old
04-05-2013, 06:20 PM
  #24
blahblah
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Detroit and Minny are definitely who we should be eyeing, not St. Louis. They are pretty much a lock to get in.
Not so fast, we take both of our games against them in regulation and we're 3 points up with their 2 games in hand. Not saying it's easy or likely, just saying it's not quite as black and white as you are saying. Certainly the Blues are no more likely than Minny.

4 of the next 5 games are against the Blues and Minny, with the Sharks in there to finish it off. Talk about handing you your own ticket. They are all just ahead of us in the standings.

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04-05-2013, 06:29 PM
  #25
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CBJ hadn't won in NSH in forever but they did. There are a lot of things this club is doing that they aren't supposed to be able to do, so why not beat the Blues? Why not beat MIN? Why not SJS?

What ever happens is going to happen but I for one am not going sell them short. They have their fate in their own hands, let's see what they do with it.

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