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Hurricanes Off Season Thread: When Tlusty doesn't score 40, who will be to blame?

View Poll Results: When Tlusty doesn't hit 40 next year, whose fault will it be?
Eric Staal's Leadership 16 5.80%
Kirk Muller's Coaching 4 1.45%
Patrick Eaves' Shoe Collection 25 9.06%
Defense 5 1.81%
Lack of depth everywhere 5 1.81%
Special Teams 3 1.09%
No team toughness 10 3.62%
JR needs to go!!! 5 1.81%
NO FLAGS AT CENTER ICE!?! 203 73.55%
Voters: 276. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
05-30-2013, 01:20 PM
  #326
Anton Dubinchuk
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Originally Posted by Joe McGrath View Post
Dan Ellis has demonstrated over his career that he is an average to above average back up goaltender. Justin Peters has demonstrated he is a terrible back up goaltender. It does not make the most sense to have a terrible backup goaltender.
OK...

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05-30-2013, 01:23 PM
  #327
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Yeah, if it weren't for the fact that Peters had another year left on his deal, I can't see any reason why we would stick him in the backup spot ahead of Ellis (or any other competent backup goaltender).

However, because he still has a year left (and a one-way deal, IIRC), and because this organization has put themselves in a situation where they can't exactly waste money, I think Peters will be the backup next year.

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05-30-2013, 01:27 PM
  #328
Joe McGrath
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Originally Posted by Anton Dubinchuk View Post
OK...
You said it makes no sense to keep Ellis. I'm saying why it does, did I miss something?

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05-30-2013, 01:29 PM
  #329
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Originally Posted by Blueline Bomber View Post
Yeah, if it weren't for the fact that Peters had another year left on his deal, I can't see any reason why we would stick him in the backup spot ahead of Ellis (or any other competent backup goaltender).

However, because he still has a year left (and a one-way deal, IIRC), and because this organization has put themselves in a situation where they can't exactly waste money, I think Peters will be the backup next year.
While I get the monetary considerations, if they miss the playoffs by 2 points because Peters goes 1-9 in his 10 starts they're flushing playoff money down the toilet anyway. And God forbid Cam gets hurt again....

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05-30-2013, 01:32 PM
  #330
Anton Dubinchuk
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Originally Posted by Joe McGrath View Post
You said it makes no sense to keep Ellis. I'm saying why it does, did I miss something?
Only that Peters is on a one-way deal with one year left on it.

I'm not even trying to argue that Peters is a better goaltender than Ellis. But, considering our current contract situation with goaltenders, combined with the fact that Ellis, while better than Peters, had some pretty terrible numbers last year, paying Peters NHL pay to play in Charlotte likely isn't worth paying Ellis the money he'll want (upwards of $1mil, likely).

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05-30-2013, 01:43 PM
  #331
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Peters is so bad that the organization has to bury him. It's really not that much money, even for this cheap organization. Whoever will be starting in Charlotte (without Peters there) will be making somewhere around 80-100k, so Peters being there instead is a loss of 425-445k. We're not talking about burying a multi-million dollar contract here.

If this team is willing to ice an AHL goalie as our back-up to save less than the value of a league minimum contract, then there is no hope.

As for Ellis' terrible numbers, he had a .906sv%. Cam Ward had a .908. Justin Peters? .891.

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05-30-2013, 01:47 PM
  #332
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amaxing Joni Jokel View Post
Peters is so bad that the organization has to bury him. It's really not that much money, even for this cheap organization. Whoever will be starting in Charlotte (without Peters there) will be making somewhere around 80-100k, so Peters being there instead is a loss of 425-445k. We're not talking about burying a multi-million dollar contract here.

If this team is willing to ice an AHL goalie as our back-up to save less than the value of a league minimum contract, then there is no hope.

As for Ellis' terrible numbers, he had a .906sv%. Cam Ward had a .908. Justin Peters? .891.
With a GAA above 3...

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05-30-2013, 01:51 PM
  #333
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Originally Posted by Joe McGrath View Post
While I get the monetary considerations, if they miss the playoffs by 2 points because Peters goes 1-9 in his 10 starts they're flushing playoff money down the toilet anyway. And God forbid Cam gets hurt again....
I get the overall sentiment of the point while also understanding that Ward was out basically all year, but we missed the playoffs by 13 points this year in only 48 games. If this year's any indication, I don't think missing the playoffs by two points is a likely scenario. (Then again, we ARE the Canes...)

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05-30-2013, 01:57 PM
  #334
impeach estaalo
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Originally Posted by Anton Dubinchuk View Post
With a GAA above 3...
He was still significantly better than Peters. His sv% was marginally worse than the savior Cam Ward and I don't see anyone arguing we should keep Peters instead of Ward.

Simple math here.

If they were to play 15 games with an average of 30 shots against, the difference between Peters' .891sv% and Ellis' .906 is seven goals allowed. If one could expect these results to be replicated, then it's easily worth burying Peters. A +7 goal differential over 15 games for less than a million dollars? That's a steal.

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05-30-2013, 02:01 PM
  #335
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I doubt Ellis is coming back but I'm hoping we can snag some veteran in free agency. Rolling with Peters as backup is a guarantee for no playoffs. Again....

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05-30-2013, 02:07 PM
  #336
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Originally Posted by Anton Dubinchuk View Post
I get the overall sentiment of the point while also understanding that Ward was out basically all year, but we missed the playoffs by 13 points this year in only 48 games. If this year's any indication, I don't think missing the playoffs by two points is a likely scenario. (Then again, we ARE the Canes...)
Whatever the case may be, I really can't see any convincing argument to put a proven failure at the NHL level in the position of back-up goalie to save what amounts to a very small amount of money. We had no problems burying a bigger salary than him in Nodl this year.

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05-30-2013, 02:09 PM
  #337
Anton Dubinchuk
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amaxing Joni Jokel View Post
He was still significantly better than Peters. His sv% was marginally worse than the savior Cam Ward and I don't see anyone arguing we should keep Peters instead of Ward.

Simple math here.

If they were to play 15 games with an average of 30 shots against, the difference between Peters' .891sv% and Ellis' .906 is seven goals allowed. If one could expect these results to be replicated, then it's easily worth burying Peters. A +7 goal differential over 15 games for less than a million dollars? That's a steal.
Decent point, but a couple of things you overlooked. When "burying" Peters you're implying that it's PETERS salary that is the opportunity cost. It's not. Peters is getting his cash whether we sign Ellis or not. That +7 differential costs what we'll be paying ELLIS, which is probably around $1.5mil, which is tougher to swallow in cap and actual dollars (not that it changes your point at all, just pointing it out).

Peters' career SV% is also around .900. Take your pick as to whether you'd rather use last season's number or career number to calculate the goal difference, personal preference really. But just pointing out that if you use career numbers (which is also more flattering for Ellis, .908 vs. .906) that differential shrinks significantly.

Again, personal preference. I know you take a firm stance and don't move so I don't know if discussing this further will be fruitful, but I don't think there's nearly as much of a gap between the two as others do (although I'll concede that Ellis is basically the objectively better goaltender).

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05-30-2013, 02:12 PM
  #338
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Anyway, regarding the post that sparked the conversation, my intended major point was to ask whether or not you guys think we'll throw Madore a contract...

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05-30-2013, 02:13 PM
  #339
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Anyway, regarding the post that sparked the conversation, my intended major point was to ask whether or not you guys think we'll throw Madore a contract...
I'll say yes.

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05-30-2013, 02:14 PM
  #340
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In which world is Dan Ellis going to be making $1.5M? He had to get an AHL tryout last year and had a good but far from great season as a back-up at the NHL level. There are simply too many goalies available and not enough spots for Ellis to make that sort of money. I doubt he'll be making much a raise of his salary this season, which was 650K.

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05-30-2013, 02:16 PM
  #341
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Originally Posted by Amaxing Joni Jokel View Post
In which world is Dan Ellis going to be making $1.5M? He had to get an AHL tryout last year and had a good but far from great season as a back-up at the NHL level. There are simply too many goalies available and not enough spots for Ellis to make that sort of money. I doubt he'll be making much a raise of his salary this season, which was 650K.
OK, fine. Yep, you're right. Ellis makes 650K next year, and is objectively a better backup. I am living in an alternate universe.

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05-30-2013, 02:19 PM
  #342
impeach estaalo
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I bet all my money (30 million) that Ellis makes less than half of $1.5M next season.

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05-30-2013, 02:19 PM
  #343
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Originally Posted by Anton Dubinchuk View Post
Anyway, regarding the post that sparked the conversation, my intended major point was to ask whether or not you guys think we'll throw Madore a contract...
I'm probably wrong, but didn't Madore completely collapse in the playoffs?

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05-30-2013, 02:20 PM
  #344
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Originally Posted by Amaxing Joni Jokel View Post
I bet all my money (30 million) that Ellis makes less than half of $1.5M next season.
OK, I'll hold you to that! But for what it's worth, his cap hit was $800,000 THIS year. So basically you're saying that he was bad enough to earn at least a $50,000 paycut (at least as the cap goes, I'm aware that his actual salary was $650,000).

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05-30-2013, 02:21 PM
  #345
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This money is all tied up in shares of stock for Carolina Thunder, just so you know

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05-30-2013, 02:22 PM
  #346
Anton Dubinchuk
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This money is all tied up in shares of stock for Carolina Thunder, just so you know
A wise investment. I heard the owner once skated with Ron Francis.

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05-30-2013, 02:30 PM
  #347
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Dan Ellis was fine until we were forced to make him an NHL starter full time, where he faltered. As a guy who didn't have an NHL contract prior to the start of the season and had to audition in the AHL, it was probably too much for him to handle. He would be more than adequate as a backup for Cam provided Cam is healthy. Peters is a strong option to have for a 3rd goaltender.

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05-30-2013, 03:17 PM
  #348
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I'd go so far as to say Ellis was more than fine prior to his injury. .918 save percentage, 2.65 GAA if my math is right.

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05-30-2013, 03:21 PM
  #349
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His injury was completely self-inflicted, so you have to include the rest of the games.

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05-30-2013, 03:51 PM
  #350
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jeff schultz anyone?

http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/2...equests-trade/

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