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Blues Trade Proposals - Part 6

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05-29-2013, 09:17 PM
  #676
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Originally Posted by EastonBlues22 View Post
The Sharks fared even worse offensively against LA than the Blues did, in spite of having the #1 center and top end scoring talent that Blues fans feel this team lacks. Thornton had, what, a goal and three assists in the 7 game series against LA?

I don't think breaking the bank to add a skater (any skater) would produce the sort of quick-fix results that some fans might hope.
Did you watch Jonathan Quick that series and the only real offensive threats SJ has is Marleau, Thornton, Couture, Pavelski, and Brent Burns. Three of those players are natural centers and one a defenseman. I thought Thornton played great and did everything he could, making tape to tape passes setting up great scoring chances. The difference in that series was Jonathan Quick vs Antti Niemi.

Joe Thornton was one of the few San Jose sharks to have a positive +/- on his team as well for the playoffs. Finishing +5 which blew all of their other top forwards out of the water.

I'm all for Joe, he may be turning 34 but I still see him putting up solid numbers for the next 3 years. He's what this team needs. A big, physical, playmaking center. I know we all want a younger #1 center on a cheap contract but none of those players are going to be available, beggars can't be choosers and I think Joe would be a perfect fit.

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05-29-2013, 09:37 PM
  #677
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Thornton's 4 points would have made a big difference in the Blues series...4 extra points from a forward could have won that series.

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05-30-2013, 12:24 AM
  #678
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Jeff Carter was that player for LA. It's not a cliche everytime, sometimes teams really are just one player away. We aren't that far off, we just need a bit more. Maybe that is the current roster elevating their game or maybe it is adding someone. There were multiple offensive players that were not playing up to their usual production level, so we might not have to add anyone, but I'd still prefer to make a move.

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05-30-2013, 12:38 AM
  #679
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Originally Posted by CarvinSigX View Post
Thornton's 4 points would have made a big difference in the Blues series...4 extra points from a forward could have won that series.
It doesn't work like that. You have to figure in the talent subtraction that it would take to get Thornton to begin with, the talent we couldn't otherwise retain due to his salary with our payroll structure, and then the reduced production from other players who are losing minutes/opportunities to Thornton.

Nobody ever wants to factor in the opportunity costs.

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05-30-2013, 12:45 AM
  #680
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Originally Posted by Bluesman91 View Post
Did you watch Jonathan Quick that series and the only real offensive threats SJ has is Marleau, Thornton, Couture, Pavelski, and Brent Burns. Three of those players are natural centers and one a defenseman. I thought Thornton played great and did everything he could, making tape to tape passes setting up great scoring chances. The difference in that series was Jonathan Quick vs Antti Niemi.

Joe Thornton was one of the few San Jose sharks to have a positive +/- on his team as well for the playoffs. Finishing +5 which blew all of their other top forwards out of the water.

I'm all for Joe, he may be turning 34 but I still see him putting up solid numbers for the next 3 years. He's what this team needs. A big, physical, playmaking center. I know we all want a younger #1 center on a cheap contract but none of those players are going to be available, beggars can't be choosers and I think Joe would be a perfect fit.
Yes, I saw it. You're basically making my point for me.

Having "elite" players simply doesn't guarantee difference making production in a 7 game series, even when they're playing well.

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05-30-2013, 12:59 AM
  #681
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I think most people realize it doesn't guarantee anything. The point in trading for one is you are thinking/hoping they will help. You really can't argue that the Blues could use a legit 1st line player. That's all people are saying.

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05-30-2013, 01:03 AM
  #682
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Originally Posted by EastonBlues22 View Post
Yes, I saw it. You're basically making my point for me.

Having "elite" players simply doesn't guarantee difference making production in a 7 game series, even when they're playing well.
Of course they won't when they dot have any other talent around them. Take Joe Thornton away from the Sharks and they aren't even in a playoff spot, let alone go on to a 7 game series with the Kings, something we have yet to do. Your argument basically states that upgrading a position of weakness does not make the whole better, which is not true.

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05-30-2013, 01:37 AM
  #683
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Originally Posted by BlueDream View Post
I think most people realize it doesn't guarantee anything. The point in trading for one is you are thinking/hoping they will help. You really can't argue that the Blues could use a legit 1st line player. That's all people are saying.
Is there a team in the league whose fans don't believe that?

I firmly believe that what is needed to get the Blues over that next hump has nothing to do with adding skill.

The chances were there in the LA series, and it generally wasn't a lack of skill that did the Blues in. Skill isn't the key to winning the center of the ice to bury those fat rebounds Quick was kicking out into the slot, and skill doesn't prevent the handful of crippling brain farts that turned the momentum of the series around.

Those things come when talent has been coached well, and has the experience/maturity to do what needs to be done when it needs to be done without thinking. We have yet to see the full impact of Hitchcock's coaching given that he still hasn't had a full training camp/preseason with his team, and the only "full" season he's had with the team didn't leave much free time for significant behavior alteration with the condensed schedule.

Now it's certainly possible that some of the players the Blues have can't be coached to do what needs to be done, and will never mature into the players they need to be to win it all. If that's the case, then you try to selectively swap them out for equivalent talents who fit the bill.

That, however, is a very different mindset and process than attempting to upgrade the team's overall talent level.

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05-30-2013, 01:51 AM
  #684
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Earlier in the year I posted how the past 4 cup winners cores (who just so happen to be in the conference finals this year) have all been younger than the Blues core. Some of our guys are at the peak and coaching won't do that for them. They simply are not good enough which comes from a lack of skill.

We do not posesses a player who can either score 40 goals in a season or 50+ assists in a year. This equates to skill. They have the skill to put the puck in the net or set up a player like Chris Kunitz to put the puck in the back of the net. And while Hitch hasn't had a training camp or "full season" with the team he made some pretty awful decisions during the LA series and was out coached. Sutter went with 7 d-man and Hitch couldn't adjust. I'm tired of hearing excuses for this team and some of its players.

However I do think we could win a cup with the current team we have, but losing to LA makes me want this team to get better. If you can't beat the best, how do you ever expect to become THE best?

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05-30-2013, 01:52 AM
  #685
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Originally Posted by Bluesman91 View Post
Of course they won't when they dot have any other talent around them. Take Joe Thornton away from the Sharks and they aren't even in a playoff spot, let alone go on to a 7 game series with the Kings, something we have yet to do. Your argument basically states that upgrading a position of weakness does not make the whole better, which is not true.
I disagree completely. The Sharks were a playoff team with or without Thornton. There were in years past as well. This is hardly Thornton's first playoff appearance with a talented Sharks team.

For that matter, I'm not sure how you justify the "don't have any other talent around them" comment, either. You could make strong case that the Thornton, Marleau, Couture, and Pavelski are all more offensively talented than the most talented Blues forward this year.

The bold is a gross over-simplification of my argument. There is an opportunity cost for the upgrade you speak of which is often conventiently ignored or marginalized. What's more, a simple talent upgrade at a "position of weakness" rarely solves any team's playoff problems. It's never as simple as increased talent = better team, and the most talented team on paper is rarely the team that wins it all in today's NHL.

I don't really want to repeat what I just posted in the above post, so I'll let it go at that.

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05-30-2013, 02:07 AM
  #686
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Is there a team in the league whose fans don't believe that?

I firmly believe that what is needed to get the Blues over that next hump has nothing to do with adding skill.

The chances were there in the LA series, and it generally wasn't a lack of skill that did the Blues in. Skill isn't the key to winning the center of the ice to bury those fat rebounds Quick was kicking out into the slot, and skill doesn't prevent the handful of crippling brain farts that turned the momentum of the series around.

Those things come when talent has been coached well, and has the experience/maturity to do what needs to be done when it needs to be done without thinking. We have yet to see the full impact of Hitchcock's coaching given that he still hasn't had a full training camp/preseason with his team, and the only "full" season he's had with the team didn't leave much free time for significant behavior alteration with the condensed schedule.

Now it's certainly possible that some of the players the Blues have can't be coached to do what needs to be done, and will never mature into the players they need to be to win it all. If that's the case, then you try to selectively swap them out for equivalent talents who fit the bill.

That, however, is a very different mindset and process than attempting to upgrade the team's overall talent level.
I don't even know what you are arguing, or if you're just re-emphasizing my point. I think we are on the same page...

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05-30-2013, 02:09 AM
  #687
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Earlier in the year I posted how the past 4 cup winners cores (who just so happen to be in the conference finals this year) have all been younger than the Blues core. Some of our guys are at the peak and coaching won't do that for them. They simply are not good enough which comes from a lack of skill.
Two of our core forwards are at their peak...Steen and Backes. I would argue that they are our two most consistently impactful forwards, so I'm not sure how this works against what I'm saying. As for the bold, I'm going to agree to disagree.

Quote:
We do not posesses a player who can either score 40 goals in a season or 50+ assists in a year. This equates to skill. They have the skill to put the puck in the net or set up a player like Chris Kunitz to put the puck in the back of the net. And while Hitch hasn't had a training camp or "full season" with the team he made some pretty awful decisions during the LA series and was out coached. Sutter went with 7 d-man and Hitch couldn't adjust. I'm tired of hearing excuses for this team and some of its players.
He also made some good decisions that had the Blues up 2-0 in the series. If the Blues had executed a bit better, then should have been up 3-1 going home after 4 games...if not series over. Laying this at Hitchcock's feet is unreasonable, IMO.

As an aside, the "tired of excuses" line isn't very productive. Only 1 team wins the Cup any given year, and there's going to be "excuses" (otherwise known as reasons) for every other team why they didn't. Some will be valid, and some won't be, but dismissing them out of frustration isn't productive.

Quote:
However I do think we could win a cup with the current team we have, but losing to LA makes me want this team to get better. If you can't beat the best, how do you ever expect to become THE best?
As I mentioned in a previous post, I don't think the only way to get better as a team is to improve the skill level of the team. What I saw in the LA series wasn't a skill problem, but others are free to disagree.

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05-30-2013, 03:12 AM
  #688
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Originally Posted by EastonBlues22 View Post
It doesn't work like that. You have to figure in the talent subtraction that it would take to get Thornton to begin with, the talent we couldn't otherwise retain due to his salary with our payroll structure, and then the reduced production from other players who are losing minutes/opportunities to Thornton.

Nobody ever wants to factor in the opportunity costs.
Realistically, what would Thornton cost? I think Berglund plus prospects/picks would be enough. If that's the case, wouldn't he have made a difference if he produced at a higher level than Berglund? I think it's safe to say a Thornton level talent would be good for the team if the right deal was made.

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05-30-2013, 03:37 AM
  #689
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Realistically, what would Thornton cost? I think Berglund plus prospects/picks would be enough. If that's the case, wouldn't he have made a difference if he produced at a higher level than Berglund? I think it's safe to say a Thornton level talent would be good for the team if the right deal was made.
1) What makes you believe that the Sharks are selling Thornton, besides the chatter from some of their more disillusioned fans? Personally, I don't buy it for a second.

They're a contending team. Even assuming they're convinced it's time to move on from Thornton (for some strange reason), they're going to want something pretty significant that helps them win now in return. Would you trade Thornton for Berglund if the tables were reversed?

2) "Making a difference" is a pretty imprecise phrase. Do I believe that simply swapping out Thornton for Berglund against LA would have led to a victory, all other things being held constant? No, I don't believe that.

Perhaps counter-intuitively given that statement, I also do not believe that adding someone of his quality is necessary for the Blues to beat LA, as I detailed in some previous posts.


Last edited by EastonBlues22: 05-30-2013 at 02:41 PM. Reason: spelling
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05-30-2013, 04:04 AM
  #690
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If the Rangers buy out Center Brad Richards, just turned 33. I could see Armstrong going after him since they have a history together when both were with Dallas.

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05-30-2013, 10:03 AM
  #691
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If the Rangers buy out Center Brad Richards, just turned 33. I could see Armstrong going after him since they have a history together when both were with Dallas.
Were they there at the same time? I wondered too but never bothered to check.

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05-30-2013, 10:23 AM
  #692
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Pretty sure it was Brett Hull who took Richards to Dallas.

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05-30-2013, 10:39 AM
  #693
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Am I the only one who is of the mindset that the average forward peaks around 25? Cause I find the idea that any of our forwards that are in the 23-26 range are going to hit this new level just is... no. Tarasenko and Schwartz sure, but Bergie, Stewart, Oshie, and Perron? They are all 5 year pros, at least. If they were going to become more, we'd have seen it by now.

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05-30-2013, 10:47 AM
  #694
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Am I the only one who is of the mindset that the average forward peaks around 25? Cause I find the idea that any of our forwards that are in the 23-26 range are going to hit this new level just is... no. Tarasenko and Schwartz sure, but Bergie, Stewart, Oshie, and Perron? They are all 5 year pros, at least. If they were going to become more, we'd have seen it by now.
They probably won't be PPG, but Perron showed he can be a 30-30 player or at least at a minimum, significantly more productive than he was last season. Oshie has been consistent, just needs to stay healthy, he's a 55 point 2-way winger that gets hurt. If Berglund just adds consistency, he'd be a 50-55 point center, something he's shown he can do, I have less hope for him being consistent. Stewart is the wild card because with him if he just gets a little bit more consistent, then he could be a force.

We're not looking for them to breakout, they just need to be consistent and better than last season and all of them showed in previous years that they can be better.

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05-30-2013, 10:50 AM
  #695
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Am I the only one who is of the mindset that the average forward peaks around 25? Cause I find the idea that any of our forwards that are in the 23-26 range are going to hit this new level just is... no. Tarasenko and Schwartz sure, but Bergie, Stewart, Oshie, and Perron? They are all 5 year pros, at least. If they were going to become more, we'd have seen it by now.
Based on this article and based purely on points (although I question the method), you are dead on:

http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2010/...-game-peak-age

But look at Detroit's players (and past players), and you'll see that many of them peaked well after 25.

Although I generally agree with your assessment - I don't think we should count on Berglund, Stewart, Oshie, and Perron to improve much more, at least points-wise. I think Perron and Stewart have the most potential to out of those players though.

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05-30-2013, 11:34 AM
  #696
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Development is different for everyone. Typically, you are right that point totals tend to peak out in the mid-20s.

As bleedblue1223 said, I think that Berglund has a decent chance of adding consistency going forward which will show on the stat lines. Stewart will hopefully play a slightly more complete game, and show up in the bigger games, but ultimately I doubt his numbers will be much better than what he put up this season.

If I'm honest, I wouldn't mind some significant changes this summer. I think that the Lightning could be tempted to move their pick, and I think Barkov could be the final significant piece we need going forward.

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05-30-2013, 11:38 AM
  #697
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We could wait and just set ourselves up for signing Stastny next summer. It might be best to not overreact to a lockout season. This team still hasn't had a regular training camp or summer with Hitchcock as coach. Get Lehtera and Miller would could return to his dominant self behind this defense.

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05-30-2013, 11:50 AM
  #698
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If I'm honest, I wouldn't mind some significant changes this summer. I think that the Lightning could be tempted to move their pick, and I think Barkov could be the final significant piece we need going forward.
This might be our best move.

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05-30-2013, 12:53 PM
  #699
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We could wait and just set ourselves up for signing Stastny next summer. It might be best to not overreact to a lockout season. This team still hasn't had a regular training camp or summer with Hitchcock as coach. Get Lehtera and Miller would could return to his dominant self behind this defense.

I think you're putting far too much stock in what Lehtera might bring to the team.
If he even comes over here; he will still be a European League rookie that will have to adapt to the culture, Language, smaller ice and more physical game. He's also coming in with existing concerns over his skating and defensive play.

There is VERY little chance that Lehtera is an immediate impact player and IMO anybody expecting him to be one is simply fooling themselves. The guy has a massive learning curve ahead of him, and that's if he's even willing to make the attempt. Expecting any more out of Lehtera than you do out of Jaskin or Rattie is just not realistic IMO.

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05-30-2013, 12:57 PM
  #700
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I think you're putting far too much stock in what Lehtera might bring to the team.
If he even comes over here; he will still be a European League rookie that will have to adapt to the culture, Language, smaller ice and more physical game. He's also coming in with existing concerns over his skating and defensive play.

There is VERY little chance that Lehtera is an immediate impact player and IMO anybody expecting him to be one is simply fooling themselves. The guy has a massive learning curve ahead of him, and that's if he's even willing to make the attempt. Expecting any more out of Lehtera than you do out of Jaskin or Rattie is just not realistic IMO.
I didn't mention what my expectations were of him. I do think he could put up 40 points on the 3rd line. He has many qualities that fit into our system. He has great vision, is strong on the puck, and has chemistry with Tarasenko. He has good size and scouts have said his skating has greatly improved.

I'm not saying he will be the difference, if I thought he would, then I wouldn't think we'd go after Stastny next summer. He is a definite upgrade offensively than what we've been getting out of the 3rd line center spot.

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