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Old
04-29-2013, 02:09 PM
  #126
joestevens29
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Jason Gregor ‏@JasonGregor 2m
Not sure why some feel making 8 changes on Oilers is massive overhaul. The key is making at least 2 meaningful changes. Top-4 D, top-6 fwd

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04-29-2013, 02:13 PM
  #127
Jimmi McJenkins
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Originally Posted by joestevens29 View Post
Technically we could make deals with non-playoff teams, although it's kinda frowned upon for whatever reason.
I think it's "frowned upon" because it sort of takes attention away from the playoffs (depending on the size of deal) and the NHL would just rather it wait. Which I understand.

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04-29-2013, 02:18 PM
  #128
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Originally Posted by joestevens29 View Post
Jason Gregor ‏@JasonGregor 2m
Not sure why some feel making 8 changes on Oilers is massive overhaul. The key is making at least 2 meaningful changes. Top-4 D, top-6 fwd
Uh, our 3rd and 4th line can't maintain any remote semblance of pressure and get hemmed waaay too much. Probably a large D problem; however, our 3rd/4th line is still garbage.

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04-29-2013, 02:19 PM
  #129
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Originally Posted by joestevens29 View Post
Jason Gregor ‏@JasonGregor 2m
Not sure why some feel making 8 changes on Oilers is massive overhaul. The key is making at least 2 meaningful changes. Top-4 D, top-6 fwd
1. Backup goalie
2. Top 4 D to play with Schultz
3. Top 6 FWD
4. Klefbom on bottom pairing
5-8. replacing our entire bottom 6 except for Brown and
Paajarvi

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04-29-2013, 02:20 PM
  #130
belair
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Originally Posted by joestevens29 View Post
Jason Gregor ‏@JasonGregor 2m
Not sure why some feel making 8 changes on Oilers is massive overhaul. The key is making at least 2 meaningful changes. Top-4 D, top-6 fwd
I'm not sure why there's a huge clamoring for a top-6 fwd. The main thing missing was scoring depth and competive players in our bottom 6 this past season. If we're looking at the UFA market, one of Stalberg or Bickell for the 3rd line would be our best bet.

Personally, I'd love to see the Oilers grab their top-4 defenseman via trade. A package of Hemsky, Marincin/Gernat/Musil and a pick in 2014 could land us a valueable player. As I've stated many times before, Brian Campbell should be a guy that the management is turning over every stone to acquire.

I could see us starting next year with a bottom six looking like:

Bickell - Horcoff - Jones
Hartikainen - Lander - Brown
Smyth

Right there, there's three "new" players.

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04-29-2013, 02:36 PM
  #131
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Originally Posted by belair View Post
I'm not sure why there's a huge clamoring for a top-6 fwd. The main thing missing was scoring depth and competive players in our bottom 6 this past season. If we're looking at the UFA market, one of Stalberg or Bickell for the 3rd line would be our best bet.

Personally, I'd love to see the Oilers grab their top-4 defenseman via trade. A package of Hemsky, Marincin/Gernat/Musil and a pick in 2014 could land us a valueable player. As I've stated many times before, Brian Campbell should be a guy that the management is turning over every stone to acquire.

I could see us starting next year with a bottom six looking like:

Bickell - Horcoff - Jones
Hartikainen - Lander - Brown
Smyth

Right there, there's three "new" players.
I wouldn't target Stalberg, I think Bickell brings more to the table and would love to get him. He is much more physical, just a bit bigger and he can chip in offensively as well.

Bickell, Streit, Clarkson/Horton, Fedotenko and I know this wont be a popular choice but Torres are the guys the Oilers should look to target in free agency. People can hate on Torres all they want, he is a tough, intimidating player that can chip in offensively. Coming out with 2-3 of these guys would be great for the Oilers IMO.

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Old
04-29-2013, 03:06 PM
  #132
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Petro Points View Post
chance for Dubnyk to show that he can out shine Smith ...

Poor guy called out by MacT again today... First he went against Bernier during lock out and came up on top...
When all the Luongo to EDM rumors were in full swing he went against him and cam up on top...

Now Smith is next... Maybe after this he would be considered a legit NHL starter.
Dubnyk was 11th in save % for starters.
What stands out is shots/gm for these goalies.
The league average is 28.7 shots/gm

1 Anderson .941SV% 28.6 SH/gm
2 Bobrovsky .932 29.3 SH/gm
3 Rask .929 27.9 SH/gm
4 Schnieder .927 28.9 sh/gm
5. Lunquist .926 27.7 Sh/gm
6. Crawford .926 26.2 SH/gm
7. Niemi .924 28.4 SH/gm
8. Riemer .924 32.2 Sh/gm
9. Howard .923 27.7 Sh/gm
10. Fasth .921 27.8 Sh/gm
11. Dubnyk .920 32.2 Sh/gm
11. Holtby .920 32.3 sh/gm

Of these goalies;
7 faced average or lower shots/gm
2 were slightly above
3 were 3.5+ Shots more.

Miller .915 33.1 Sh/gm
Rinne .910 27.0 Sh/gm
Smith .910 28.8 Sh/gm
Backstrom .909 27.2 Sh/gm
Elliott .907 24.4 Sh/gn
He already Beat out
Price .905 27.2 Sh/gm

I laugh and laugh every time some one brings up Price over Dubnyk.
Dubnyk:
10-11 2061min 34.35GM 1103SA 32.1 SH/gm 93 GA .916 SV%
11-12 2653min 44.22GM 1380SA 31.2 SH/gm 118 GA .914 SV%
12-13 2061min 35.02GM 1132SA 32.3 SH/gm 90 GA .920 SV%
3 yr 6815min 113.58gm 3615SA 31.8 Sh/gm 301G .917 SV%

Price:
10-11 4206 min 7 0.1GM 2147SA 30.6 SH/gm 165 GA .923 SV%
11-12 3944 min 65.7GM 1914SA 29.1 SH/gm 160 GA .916 SV%
12-13 2249 min 38.23gm 1018SA 27.1 SH/gm 97 GA .905 SV%
3 yr 10399 min 173.3gm 5079SA 29.2 Sh/gm 422G .917 SV%

Dubnyk out performed Price the last three years.

Price last 5 years:
08-09 .905 Sv%
09-10 .912 Sv%
10-11 .923 Sv%
11-12 .916 Sv%
12-13 .905 SV%

price had:
1 top 10 year
1 Average year
1 below average year
2 brutal years.
Average or worse 80% of the time.
For 6.5M

Price proved this year a team with low shot count and good scoring can cover for pathetic starting goalie play.

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Old
04-29-2013, 03:26 PM
  #133
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lessy View Post
Both good and bad from that press conference.

-Don't see Horcoff being bought out like many want. His salary is cheap compared to the cap hit. Some say that doesn't matter with this team but I'm not so sure we have infinite resources in terms of spending. Maybe it becomes more of an option in summer 2014 depending on his play but I just don't see it happening this summer.
His salary is cheap but that also means that his buyout would be cheap. I think if the Oilers have something of use targeted for that cap space, they will buy him out but if they figure to have room then they have no problem keeping him around.

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Old
04-29-2013, 03:36 PM
  #134
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oilerbear View Post
Dubnyk was 11th in save % for starters.
What stands out is shots/gm for these goalies.
The league average is 28.7 shots/gm

1 Anderson .941SV% 28.6 SH/gm
2 Bobrovsky .932 29.3 SH/gm
3 Rask .929 27.9 SH/gm
4 Schnieder .927 28.9 sh/gm
5. Lunquist .926 27.7 Sh/gm
6. Crawford .926 26.2 SH/gm
7. Niemi .924 28.4 SH/gm
8. Riemer .924 32.2 Sh/gm
9. Howard .923 27.7 Sh/gm
10. Fasth .921 27.8 Sh/gm
11. Dubnyk .920 32.2 Sh/gm
11. Holtby .920 32.3 sh/gm

Of these goalies;
7 faced average or lower shots/gm
2 were slightly above
3 were 3.5+ Shots more.

Miller .915 33.1 Sh/gm
Rinne .910 27.0 Sh/gm
Smith .910 28.8 Sh/gm
Backstrom .909 27.2 Sh/gm
Elliott .907 24.4 Sh/gn
He already Beat out
Price .905 27.2 Sh/gm

I laugh and laugh every time some one brings up Price over Dubnyk.
Dubnyk:
10-11 2061min 34.35GM 1103SA 32.1 SH/gm 93 GA .916 SV%
11-12 2653min 44.22GM 1380SA 31.2 SH/gm 118 GA .914 SV%
12-13 2061min 35.02GM 1132SA 32.3 SH/gm 90 GA .920 SV%
3 yr 6815min 113.58gm 3615SA 31.8 Sh/gm 301G .917 SV%

Price:
10-11 4206 min 7 0.1GM 2147SA 30.6 SH/gm 165 GA .923 SV%
11-12 3944 min 65.7GM 1914SA 29.1 SH/gm 160 GA .916 SV%
12-13 2249 min 38.23gm 1018SA 27.1 SH/gm 97 GA .905 SV%
3 yr 10399 min 173.3gm 5079SA 29.2 Sh/gm 422G .917 SV%

Dubnyk out performed Price the last three years.

Price last 5 years:
08-09 .905 Sv%
09-10 .912 Sv%
10-11 .923 Sv%
11-12 .916 Sv%
12-13 .905 SV%

price had:
1 top 10 year
1 Average year
1 below average year
2 brutal years.
Average or worse 80% of the time.
For 6.5M

Price proved this year a team with low shot count and good scoring can cover for pathetic starting goalie play.
Dubnyk > Price?

I never ever thought you would come close to your laughable Horcoff > Crosby comparison but this comes awfully close.

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Old
04-29-2013, 03:38 PM
  #135
Jek McPorkins
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oilerbear View Post
Dubnyk was 11th in save % for starters.
What stands out is shots/gm for these goalies.
The league average is 28.7 shots/gm

1 Anderson .941SV% 28.6 SH/gm
2 Bobrovsky .932 29.3 SH/gm
3 Rask .929 27.9 SH/gm
4 Schnieder .927 28.9 sh/gm
5. Lunquist .926 27.7 Sh/gm
6. Crawford .926 26.2 SH/gm
7. Niemi .924 28.4 SH/gm
8. Riemer .924 32.2 Sh/gm
9. Howard .923 27.7 Sh/gm
10. Fasth .921 27.8 Sh/gm
11. Dubnyk .920 32.2 Sh/gm
11. Holtby .920 32.3 sh/gm

Of these goalies;
7 faced average or lower shots/gm
2 were slightly above
3 were 3.5+ Shots more.

Miller .915 33.1 Sh/gm
Rinne .910 27.0 Sh/gm
Smith .910 28.8 Sh/gm
Backstrom .909 27.2 Sh/gm
Elliott .907 24.4 Sh/gn
He already Beat out
Price .905 27.2 Sh/gm

I laugh and laugh every time some one brings up Price over Dubnyk.
Dubnyk:
10-11 2061min 34.35GM 1103SA 32.1 SH/gm 93 GA .916 SV%
11-12 2653min 44.22GM 1380SA 31.2 SH/gm 118 GA .914 SV%
12-13 2061min 35.02GM 1132SA 32.3 SH/gm 90 GA .920 SV%
3 yr 6815min 113.58gm 3615SA 31.8 Sh/gm 301G .917 SV%

Price:
10-11 4206 min 7 0.1GM 2147SA 30.6 SH/gm 165 GA .923 SV%
11-12 3944 min 65.7GM 1914SA 29.1 SH/gm 160 GA .916 SV%
12-13 2249 min 38.23gm 1018SA 27.1 SH/gm 97 GA .905 SV%
3 yr 10399 min 173.3gm 5079SA 29.2 Sh/gm 422G .917 SV%

Dubnyk out performed Price the last three years.

Price last 5 years:
08-09 .905 Sv%
09-10 .912 Sv%
10-11 .923 Sv%
11-12 .916 Sv%
12-13 .905 SV%

price had:
1 top 10 year
1 Average year
1 below average year
2 brutal years.
Average or worse 80% of the time.
For 6.5M

Price proved this year a team with low shot count and good scoring can cover for pathetic starting goalie play.
Sorry to interrupt your laughing and laughing, but seeing as Khabibulin posted better stats than Dubnyk, is he also a top ten goalie according to you?

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Old
04-29-2013, 03:41 PM
  #136
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Looks like the crazy cat lady of the statistically inclined has decided to try out his tired act here again. It's so cute.

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Old
04-29-2013, 03:43 PM
  #137
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Quote:
Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
Dubnyk > Price?

I never ever thought you would come close to your laughable Horcoff > Crosby comparison but this comes awfully close.
People will say ANYTHING to defend Dubnyk for some reason. He's really not that good.

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04-29-2013, 03:44 PM
  #138
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oilerbear View Post
Dubnyk was 11th in save % for starters.
What stands out is shots/gm for these goalies.
The league average is 28.7 shots/gm

1 Anderson .941SV% 28.6 SH/gm
2 Bobrovsky .932 29.3 SH/gm
3 Rask .929 27.9 SH/gm
4 Schnieder .927 28.9 sh/gm
5. Lunquist .926 27.7 Sh/gm
6. Crawford .926 26.2 SH/gm
7. Niemi .924 28.4 SH/gm
8. Riemer .924 32.2 Sh/gm
9. Howard .923 27.7 Sh/gm
10. Fasth .921 27.8 Sh/gm
11. Dubnyk .920 32.2 Sh/gm
11. Holtby .920 32.3 sh/gm

Of these goalies;
7 faced average or lower shots/gm
2 were slightly above
3 were 3.5+ Shots more.

Miller .915 33.1 Sh/gm
Rinne .910 27.0 Sh/gm
Smith .910 28.8 Sh/gm
Backstrom .909 27.2 Sh/gm
Elliott .907 24.4 Sh/gn
He already Beat out
Price .905 27.2 Sh/gm

I laugh and laugh every time some one brings up Price over Dubnyk.
Dubnyk:
10-11 2061min 34.35GM 1103SA 32.1 SH/gm 93 GA .916 SV%
11-12 2653min 44.22GM 1380SA 31.2 SH/gm 118 GA .914 SV%
12-13 2061min 35.02GM 1132SA 32.3 SH/gm 90 GA .920 SV%
3 yr 6815min 113.58gm 3615SA 31.8 Sh/gm 301G .917 SV%

Price:
10-11 4206 min 7 0.1GM 2147SA 30.6 SH/gm 165 GA .923 SV%
11-12 3944 min 65.7GM 1914SA 29.1 SH/gm 160 GA .916 SV%
12-13 2249 min 38.23gm 1018SA 27.1 SH/gm 97 GA .905 SV%
3 yr 10399 min 173.3gm 5079SA 29.2 Sh/gm 422G .917 SV%

Dubnyk out performed Price the last three years.

Price last 5 years:
08-09 .905 Sv%
09-10 .912 Sv%
10-11 .923 Sv%
11-12 .916 Sv%
12-13 .905 SV%

price had:
1 top 10 year
1 Average year
1 below average year
2 brutal years.
Average or worse 80% of the time.
For 6.5M

Price proved this year a team with low shot count and good scoring can cover for pathetic starting goalie play.
So I guys stats really do mean nothing.

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Old
04-29-2013, 03:45 PM
  #139
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Originally Posted by The Big Unit View Post
People will say ANYTHING to defend Dubnyk for some reason. He's really not that good.
He is middle of the road, which is actually a lot better than I thought he would ever be. Reality is he is a goalie that could win a cup on a very stacked team. If you want to move forward with him in net, you better get a big time D man and some great forwards.

I wonder if Thomas would consider coming here. That would be something. could play him 40 games and just save him for the playoffs.

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04-29-2013, 03:47 PM
  #140
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to the poster talking shots.

Teams don't really use that stat. They use scoring chances and keep their own stats.

That said, Dubnyk was probably okay on that front. The Oilers do give up too many scoring chances, but the difference again is their terrible breakout.
They have about .3 GA/G (1 goal against every 3 games) due to their poor breakout.

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04-29-2013, 03:48 PM
  #141
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Originally Posted by Jimmi Jenkins View Post
I think it's "frowned upon" because it sort of takes attention away from the playoffs (depending on the size of deal) and the NHL would just rather it wait. Which I understand.
I imagine it also probably has something to do with the fact that you're limiting your market by trading with only non-playoff teams. Why trade a player for X value right now when you might be able to get X+ from a team that happens to be in the playoffs? This would apply to both parties in a trade right now, so there's two chances for a GM to want to wait and see what his asset is really worth.

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04-29-2013, 03:52 PM
  #142
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Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
Best +/- on the team.

Yup he does nothing well in your world.
Ah yes, his best plus minus on the team, care to look at his plus minus in other years? Also care to tell me what he does well?

- Below 50% on the dot the last 4 years.
- Totally horrendous plus minus any years he has to face tough competition, (as in some of the worst in the league.)
- No ability at all to generate any offense on his own, even when he has been stuck on the 3rd line, low and behold he has Yakupov put with him. Feeds a lot off his pp time.
- 1 GWG in about his last 150 or more games.
- A near team worst giveaway take away ratio, 19 giveaways, 6 takeaways.
- Zero physicality, none at all.

You need to use the good old looney symbol where it is best used. 1) For people trumpeting one stat in one year such as plus minus, (After all I guess Corey Potter and Mark Fistric should be our #1 and #2 dmen)
2) Giving a 3rd liner at best player all the credit for a 5 game winning streak when the stats show the top young players went on a rampage during those games.

He's the number one problem player on this team for the combination of being a bad captain, no accountability, does nothing well, costs way too much.

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04-29-2013, 03:53 PM
  #143
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He is middle of the road, which is actually a lot better than I thought he would ever be.
totally agree with this. which is why I was glad MacT was a realist when it comes to the oilers goaltending situation. At least he also knows that DD probably isn't good enough to be a starting goalie on a contending team.

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04-29-2013, 03:53 PM
  #144
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Originally Posted by Hockey Fan #751 View Post
His salary is cheap but that also means that his buyout would be cheap. I think if the Oilers have something of use targeted for that cap space, they will buy him out but if they figure to have room then they have no problem keeping him around.
LOL This talk of his salary being cheap is very very funny, cheap compared to the robbery of his previous 5 years or so maybe. Cheap in what he really would get on the market, no.

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04-29-2013, 04:10 PM
  #145
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Ah yes, his best plus minus on the team, care to look at his plus minus in other years? Also care to tell me what he does well?

- Below 50% on the dot the last 4 years.
- Totally horrendous plus minus any years he has to face tough competition, (as in some of the worst in the league.)
- No ability at all to generate any offense on his own, even when he has been stuck on the 3rd line, low and behold he has Yakupov put with him. Feeds a lot off his pp time.
- 1 GWG in about his last 150 or more games.
- A near team worst giveaway take away ratio, 19 giveaways, 6 takeaways.
- Zero physicality, none at all.

You need to use the good old looney symbol where it is best used. 1) For people trumpeting one stat in one year such as plus minus, (After all I guess Corey Potter and Mark Fistric should be our #1 and #2 dmen)
2) Giving a 3rd liner at best player all the credit for a 5 game winning streak when the stats show the top young players went on a rampage during those games.

He's the number one problem player on this team for the combination of being a bad captain, no accountability, does nothing well, costs way too much.
Apparently he carries his own water 5v5 well.

He also is a key cog on one of the better pk units in the league.

Who cares what he did in other years?

How is that relevant to what happened THIS year?

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04-29-2013, 04:12 PM
  #146
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Goalie Test:

Makes the easy saves he needs to make during important games? Answer: Lets in too many period

Makes the majority of the moderate to difficult saves he needs to make? Answer: Most of the time, Decent.

Makes the ridiculous saves he shouldn't make? Rarely.

Does Dubnyk do anything on the ice well that doesn't involve stopping the puck? No

Does Dubnyk do anything poorly on the ice that doesn't involve stopping the puck that either directly or indirectly costs his team? Not often but it has happened (playing the puck and he is below average on breakaways in my opinion).

This is my assessment of Dubnyk, however maturity and experience generally help out with the weak goals and the part he is decent at is the most important which is stopping the good shots. Right now though, he is an average starting goaltender with upside. I would say his peak is likely to be good enough but only if he gets there.

Prescription, find a second plan to share the load, whoever runs with it first is the one you want.

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04-29-2013, 04:12 PM
  #147
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Originally Posted by joestevens29 View Post
Jason Gregor ‏@JasonGregor 2m
Not sure why some feel making 8 changes on Oilers is massive overhaul. The key is making at least 2 meaningful changes. Top-4 D, top-6 fwd
Agree with Gregor..

Replacing Smithson, Peckham, Fistric, Khabi, Petrell and Jones with other 4th liners, bottom pairing Dmen isnt making us a contender..

cant stick with top 8 of Hall, Ebs, Gagner, Ebs, Yak, Horc, Hemsyk, Paajarvi and hope to improve too much.

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04-29-2013, 04:19 PM
  #148
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Originally Posted by okgooil View Post
IMO it would be a horrible decision to not buy out horcoff given the amnesty buy out. If we really want to win over the next couple years we will need that cap space.

I would also consider buying out Nick Schultz.
Agreed.. By the way Mactavish spoke about buyouts in this presser and not wanting to speak of it because of a name attached to each one, leads me to believe that Horcoff will probably be bought out. Otherwise he would of just said NO buyouts.

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04-29-2013, 04:25 PM
  #149
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cpnfantstk View Post
Agreed.. By the way Mactavish spoke about buyouts in this presser and not wanting to speak of it because of a name attached to each one, leads me to believe that Horcoff will probably be bought out. Otherwise he would of just said NO buyouts.
Its probably Belanger... MacT is not buying out Horc unless Lander goes 2PPG in AHL playoffs and 70% on the dot and RNH is ready by mid Oct..

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04-29-2013, 04:28 PM
  #150
PumpkinBomb
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Petro Points View Post
Its probably Belanger... MacT is not buying out Horc unless Lander goes 2PPG in AHL playoffs and 70% on the dot and RNH is ready by mid Oct..
To me, having Lander or someone else vs. Horcoff isn't about the play on the ice so much as he doesn't have a winning attitude.

I want someone younger and hungrier.

I want Hall wearing the C, and I want Yakupov to have his number 10.

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