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The Luongo Thread: Part Agoogleplex

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Old
05-13-2013, 11:48 PM
  #426
Golden Boy
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Originally Posted by Wcstripes View Post
A question for you all.

What if Loungo can not be traded and is bought out instead? The Canucks are dealing from a real weak postion imo and may not get any offers at all.


How many teams do you think would go after him?
I am pretty sure that Lou has to go through waivers after he is bought out. If so, a team on the bottom of the priority that may want him may trade for him instead.

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05-13-2013, 11:50 PM
  #427
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Originally Posted by Wcstripes View Post
A question for you all.

What if Loungo can not be traded and is bought out instead? The Canucks are dealing from a real weak postion imo and may not get any offers at all.


How many teams do you think would go after him?
I think the whole buy-out option is unrealistic. With his salary he isn't going to be bought out.

I also don't think teams will play hardball, and that there will be at least one team out there willing to negotiate in good faith.

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05-13-2013, 11:52 PM
  #428
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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
I also don't think teams will play hardball, and that there will be at least one team out there willing to negotiate in good faith.
Still think he garners a significant return?

Gillis will be in a very difficult bargaining position. Wouldn't be surprised to see Gillis swallow some of Luongo's salary to move him.

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05-14-2013, 06:33 PM
  #429
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Originally Posted by Promethesis View Post
I am pretty sure that Lou has to go through waivers after he is bought out. If so, a team on the bottom of the priority that may want him may trade for him instead.
Wouldn't he go through waivers first? If he does hit waivers, I'd guess that no less than a half dozen teams would put In a claim on his services.

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05-14-2013, 06:37 PM
  #430
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I honestly believe Luongo's contract isn't too bad and if no team is willing to trade good value for him, we should trade Schneider.

I really like both of them and think either would be excellent for the next 3 years which is about as far as I'd be willing to plan for as a Canucks fan. Who knows if Schneider would even re-sign here in 3 years.

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05-14-2013, 06:40 PM
  #431
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I honestly believe Luongo's contract isn't too bad and if no team is willing to trade good value for him, we should trade Schneider.

I really like both of them and think either would be excellent for the next 3 years which is about as far as I'd be willing to plan for as a Canucks fan. Who knows if Schneider would even re-sign here in 3 years.
We are not trading Lu because of his contract, we're trading him because he asked to be traded.

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05-14-2013, 06:43 PM
  #432
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Originally Posted by Scurr View Post
We are not trading Lu because of his contract, we're trading him because he asked to be traded.
He asked to be traded because he wants to be a starter.

No Schneider = no problem staying?

I'm sure management has asked him and I honestly have no idea what he said...

I'm still hoping for a Schneider vs. Luongo gold medal game in Sochi.

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05-14-2013, 06:47 PM
  #433
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Originally Posted by DJOpus View Post
He asked to be traded because he wants to be a starter.

No Schneider = no problem staying?

I'm sure management has asked him and I honestly have no idea what he said...

I'm still hoping for a Schneider vs. Luongo gold medal game in Sochi.
There is no way that Gillis backs himself into a corner like he did if there is any chance Lu would stay. Even if you think Schneider is the better goalie. Lu made it known that it was time to move on, unfortunately some people still don't believe him.

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05-14-2013, 07:02 PM
  #434
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Originally Posted by DJOpus View Post
I honestly believe Luongo's contract isn't too bad and if no team is willing to trade good value for him, we should trade Schneider.

I really like both of them and think either would be excellent for the next 3 years which is about as far as I'd be willing to plan for as a Canucks fan. Who knows if Schneider would even re-sign here in 3 years.
It's a sliding scale, IMHO... Canucks retain 100% of Lu's salary, return value approx. = (or approaching) 100% (of full value)... Canucks retain 0% salary, return value approx. = 0% (of full value)... Canucks retain 50% salary, return value approx. = 50% (of full value)...

The Canucks (Gillis and Aquilini) need to retain (be it via salary retention or returning contract to buyout) somewhere between $7m to $14m to start getting into a serious conversation about return... If the Canucks are prepared to do this, I think Luongo can get the equivalent of a mid-1st (2013 deep) draft pick and 7.5B / 8.0C (HF standards) prospect... If the Canucks aren't prepared to do this, then all bets are off, IMO, and this thing could go all the way to the beginning of training camp wire (once the offseason dust settles), and I think it's possible that Luongo could go for pennies to a team willing to take on the contract 100%...

In my dream, Gillis and Aquilini have a conversation... In this conversation, Gillis says ok, I will get behind dumping AV... but in exchange for my full decision support, you need to retain upwards of $14m in a buyout contract back (or, combined with some salary retention) to get good Luongo return... We both do something we don't really want to do, but in the end, willing to concede better for the team's success...

If this dream happens, all is fine in Canuckland, IMO... New coach gets the current team closer to the cup... Luongo return gets the Canucks closer to the longer term "re-build"... Gillis has been on a bit of a rough patch this year, IMO... Doan, Schultz, Luongo, AHL team in Abbotsford, 1st round exit again... I think he steers things back, given that he's not under the illusion that last year was just an anomoly... Gillis should be able to do what is necessary to get a good return for Luongo, IMO...

If the Canucks don't retain salary, and give Luongo away... as a season ticket holder who's ticket prices are going up, I'd be a bit pissed... given that I think that the Canucks can and should retain salary... and that doing this will increase Luongo's value greatly... Not so pissed that I would write a letter to the organization, or be over dramatic in any way... But pissed enough that it would come up with conversations with friends...


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05-14-2013, 07:09 PM
  #435
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Originally Posted by Scurr View Post
We are not trading Lu because of his contract, we're trading him because he asked to be traded.
He asked to be traded because he knew that the Canucks wanted Schneider to be their new starter.

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05-14-2013, 07:10 PM
  #436
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Originally Posted by Scurr View Post
There is no way that Gillis backs himself into a corner like he did if there is any chance Lu would stay. Even if you think Schneider is the better goalie. Lu made it known that it was time to move on, unfortunately some people still don't believe him.
Haha.

This is such a chicken or the egg argument. Which came first....Luongo asking to move on or Schneider being made the number 1.

Most people would agree as soon as Schneider was put in last year in the playoffs over Luongo the Canucks basically told Schneider he was number 1 on the Canucks. AFTER that Luongo stated it was time to move on. Pretty simple to understand even for some people on here

Regardless, maybe if the Canucks did move Schneider, Luongo would agree to stay as the number 1.

But guessing is for fools....and I'm sure lots on here will continue guessing and state their guesses are fact LMAO.

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05-14-2013, 07:12 PM
  #437
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Originally Posted by DJOpus View Post
No Schneider = no problem staying?
Both Gillis and Luongo have said things in the media which indicates that this will not be the case. Or, at the very least, things will be awkward if Schneider is the one who gets traded.

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05-14-2013, 08:50 PM
  #438
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Originally Posted by I in the Eye View Post
It's a sliding scale, IMHO... Canucks retain 100% of Lu's salary, return value approx. = (or approaching) 100% (of full value)... Canucks retain 0% salary, return value approx. = 0% (of full value)... Canucks retain 50% salary, return value approx. = 50% (of full value)...

The Canucks (Gillis and Aquilini) need to retain (be it via salary retention or returning contract to buyout) somewhere between $7m to $14m to start getting into a serious conversation about return... If the Canucks are prepared to do this, I think Luongo can get the equivalent of a mid-1st (2013 deep) draft pick and 7.5B / 8.0C (HF standards) prospect... If the Canucks aren't prepared to do this, then all bets are off, IMO, and this thing could go all the way to the beginning of training camp wire (once the offseason dust settles), and I think it's possible that Luongo could go for pennies to a team willing to take on the contract 100%...

In my dream, Gillis and Aquilini have a conversation... In this conversation, Gillis says ok, I will get behind dumping AV... but in exchange for my full decision support, you need to retain upwards of $14m in a buyout contract back (or, combined with some salary retention) to get good Luongo return... We both do something we don't really want to do, but in the end, willing to concede better for the team's success...

If this dream happens, all is fine in Canuckland, IMO... New coach gets the current team closer to the cup... Luongo return gets the Canucks closer to the longer term "re-build"... Gillis has been on a bit of a rough patch this year, IMO... Doan, Schultz, Luongo, AHL team in Abbotsford, 1st round exit again... I think he steers things back, given that he's not under the illusion that last year was just an anomoly... Gillis should be able to do what is necessary to get a good return for Luongo, IMO...

If the Canucks don't retain salary, and give Luongo away... as a season ticket holder who's ticket prices are going up, I'd be a bit pissed... given that I think that the Canucks can and should retain salary... and that doing this will increase Luongo's value greatly... Not so pissed that I would write a letter to the organization, or be over dramatic in any way... But pissed enough that it would come up with conversations with friends...
I've been pushing this as well. I can't see them retaining Lu's salary as it affects their salary cap. But I'm hopeful Aquilini is willing to take back a contract (for compliance buyout) in a Luongo trade. I think it opens the doors for poor markets like NYI and Fla to make an offer. How much would a $10M contract be worth to NYI or Fla? I'm betting a top prospect and 1st rounder at minimum.

The Canucks don't have a great prospect pool. The free agent market isn't great this summer. They don't have a lot of ways to improve their team immediately - unless they can buy it. Once every 7-10 yrs teams get an opportunity for compliance buyouts, why not use it strategically to 'buy' a good package/players.

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05-14-2013, 09:41 PM
  #439
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F&k that....is what I say if I'm Aqualini and Gillis proposes anything close to a buyout or bad contact.

Buying out Luongo is way too expensive
Trading for a buyout contract when we currently carry Ballard and Booth means keeping them or waiving them
Retaining salary is stupid in an already shrunken salary cap year
Taking a bad contract to play on the team is simply going backwards too
Waive Luongo and he likely ends up with a direct competitor

There really is just 2 remotely acceptable options (both are bad though)
Trade him for nothing - and start the "we did it for Lu spin" or package him with Edler or someone in an attempt to cloud the return.

As for the awkward situation of keeping him, I cant wait to see the awkwardness when after giving him away for nothing - or worse a multi-million dollar loss, Vancouver misses the playoffs and Luongo leads his team on a playoff run.

BTW - I'm calling it now, whatever team grabs Luongo, will go farther than Vancouver next year.

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05-14-2013, 09:44 PM
  #440
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If Luongo retires in 2019, any team that trades for him now would only be on the hook for a 1.65 mil cap hit for 3 years.

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05-14-2013, 09:49 PM
  #441
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Originally Posted by Hal 9000 View Post
As for the awkward situation of keeping him, I cant wait to see the awkwardness when after giving him away for nothing - or worse a multi-million dollar loss, Vancouver misses the playoffs and Luongo leads his team on a playoff run.

BTW - I'm calling it now, whatever team grabs Luongo, will go farther than Vancouver next year.
Luongo is 1-6 in his last 7 playoff games. I wouldn't hold your breathe that he's going to take some team on a magical run.

I'm calling it now, Schneider will post better numbers than Luongo next season -making it 4 consecutive years. This pattern will continue going forward.

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05-15-2013, 09:02 AM
  #442
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Originally Posted by Drop the Sopel View Post
Luongo is 1-6 in his last 7 playoff games. I wouldn't hold your breathe that he's going to take some team on a magical run.

I'm calling it now, Schneider will post better numbers than Luongo next season -making it 4 consecutive years. This pattern will continue going forward.
Maybe that's because the team in front of him isn't very good? That'll be the same team that Schneider has to play behind by the sounds of it.

Keep in mind, Schneider is 1-4 in his last 6 starts (1 no decision) and has been pulled twice.

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05-15-2013, 12:07 PM
  #443
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According to Cap Geek, of the top 20 highest paid goalies (cap hit), only Niemi and Lundqvist are still starting in the NHL playoffs.

Trends like that may not bode well for Luongo's trade value, especially with the other options that are out there.

This is still not an easy trade to make.

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05-15-2013, 12:14 PM
  #444
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According to Cap Geek, of the top 20 highest paid goalies (cap hit), only Niemi and Lundqvist are still starting in the NHL playoffs.

Trends like that may not bode well for Luongo's trade value, especially with the other options that are out there.

This is still not an easy trade to make.
Quick and Howard just got hefty extensions though. That makes 4/8 teams.

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05-15-2013, 12:17 PM
  #445
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Quick and Howard just got hefty extensions though. That makes 4/8 teams.
Right, but those higher cap hits don't take effect until next season. We're talking about current cap hits.

In fact, only one team (NYR) are currently paying a starter more than $3.8 million.

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05-15-2013, 12:23 PM
  #446
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Originally Posted by Hal 9000 View Post
F&k that....is what I say if I'm Aqualini and Gillis proposes anything close to a buyout or bad contact.

Buying out Luongo is way too expensive
Trading for a buyout contract when we currently carry Ballard and Booth means keeping them or waiving them
Retaining salary is stupid in an already shrunken salary cap year
Taking a bad contract to play on the team is simply going backwards too
Waive Luongo and he likely ends up with a direct competitor

There really is just 2 remotely acceptable options (both are bad though)
Trade him for nothing - and start the "we did it for Lu spin" or package him with Edler or someone in an attempt to cloud the return.

As for the awkward situation of keeping him, I cant wait to see the awkwardness when after giving him away for nothing - or worse a multi-million dollar loss, Vancouver misses the playoffs and Luongo leads his team on a playoff run.

BTW - I'm calling it now, whatever team grabs Luongo, will go farther than Vancouver next year.
Actually I agree with a lot you say...and I usually don't.

So one of us is a lot smarter this morning.

Including Lou with Edler would indeed be a huge deal and would shake up the core of this team. Maybe not a bad thing at all.

But two things. IMO, Booth will stay for one more kick at the can.

And your last sentence.

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05-15-2013, 12:36 PM
  #447
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Quick and Howard just got hefty extensions though. That makes 4/8 teams.
And Rask, who currently sits at 21, will obviously be getting a raise for next year as well. There's also Fleury, who they didn't count because Vokoun has been starting.

Winning teams aren't choosing to go cheap on goaltending.

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05-15-2013, 12:43 PM
  #448
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If Luongo retires in 2019, any team that trades for him now would only be on the hook for a 1.65 mil cap hit for 3 years.
Don't bother, nobody wants to hear anything except that Lu's contract is a monstrous albatross that has no possibility of being traded whatsoever.

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05-15-2013, 12:50 PM
  #449
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Right, but those higher cap hits don't take effect until next season. We're talking about current cap hits.

In fact, only one team (NYR) are currently paying a starter more than $3.8 million.
That has more to do with the timing of the careers for those goalies. It's more of an argument for a continued youth movement and getting young guys in their ELC or 2nd medium sized contract than it is for cheap goalies.

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05-15-2013, 01:10 PM
  #450
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That has more to do with the timing of the careers for those goalies. It's more of an argument for a continued youth movement and getting young guys in their ELC or 2nd medium sized contract than it is for cheap goalies.
All I'm suggesting is that there's not going to be this huge line-up of teams falling over each other to acquire Roberto Luongo.

Some teams are set in goal, some teams aren't at the stage where they want or need to acquire a $5 million goalie with that much term left, some teams will look to upgrade in goal without spending assets (Backstrom, Smith) and yet other teams will roll the dice on a younger, cheaper option.

Again, this is a difficult trade to make.

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