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2013 Draft Thread (Part 3) #8, 16, 38, 52, 69, 129, 130, 140, 159, 189

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05-09-2013, 04:23 AM
  #226
La Cosa Nostra
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Originally Posted by Awwufelloff View Post
We were also one of the top teams in the league during those years and having really late first round draft picks. They usually go hand in hand a part from the Red Wings.
In 2005 the Sabres picked 13th and in that draft produced 3 players who played a single NHL game... Gerbe, Butler and Gragnani. Only one is still on the roster and he is a 4th liner.It is definitely a valid argument that Darcy's terrible drafting the 3 drafts after the lockout have hurt this team badly. Gerbe, Weber and Enroth are the only players from those 3 drafts on the team. And they are a 4th liner, a 3rd pairing dman and a backup goalie. Fun fact, since 2004 (Stafford), Darcy hasn't drafted a player who has scored 50+ points in a season. 8 drafts in a row without drafting someone who has scored 50 points in a season and there are still Sabre fans who think Darcy is a great drafter just because he drafts 3rd liners and 3rd pairing dmen that attribute to the Sabres games played/ draft pick average


To elaborate further, since Darcy took over in 97, these are the Sabres who he has drafted who have scored 50 points in a season for the team..

Afinogenov (97, twice)
Kotalik (98, once)
Roy (01, four)
Pominville (01, six)
Vanek (03, six)
Stafford (04, twice)

And then you wonder why I am totally against trading Vanek, because Darcy has proven he is unable to draft high end offensive talent.


Last edited by La Cosa Nostra: 05-09-2013 at 04:31 AM.
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05-09-2013, 04:38 AM
  #227
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Yeah, no complaints there if they could snatch Barkov with a trade or grabbed Lindholm/Monahan. It's that Wennberg, Horvat, Lazar, Gauthier cluster around the middle of the 1st that leaves me a bit "meh." Of course, I do like Gauthier's size. I just don't like guys described as "maybe second line centers, likely really good third line centers." Between Hodgson, Larsson, and Girgs, I think those spots can be filled easily enough. Gotta be in the market for guys with first-line talent...which is obviously easier said than done, particularly at 16.
Horvat has you "meh?" Man, since when did our organization become chock full of players with size and talent and hockey sense, who can play against top competition every night? If the goal is the Cup, you need players like Horvat to make it through the slog and win it. While it'd be a completely Darcy thing to do, you can't just cite Girgensons and stop at one of that type of player--and I believe Horvat has a good amount more upside than Z.

I'd absolutely love Horvat at 16. But I think this is all moot, because I think he will go 10-13.

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05-09-2013, 06:00 AM
  #228
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Sorry... but his 33 goals aren't that impressive to me in terms of statements you are making..."doing IT ALL at a top level"

he's 40th in scoring in the OHL.... he's a smaller version of Brendan Gaunce... and I'd love to have Gaunce/Horvat.... but not when there is higher end offensive talent, and higher end blueliners available at 16.

Horvat is a "luxury first"... the type of player who goes to a playoff team, that has the luxury of drafting a hard working 2 way forward in the 1st.

some teams are going to make some dumb picks, and there is going to be better choices at 16, like Kerby Rychel, Frederik Gauthier, or Ryan Pulock... i'd take Domi and Erne over Horvat too.

Rychel gives me a *****


Buffalo has bigger needs, like guys who can produce offense
Horvat has scored 44 goals this year (including playoffs). How is that not impressive? He is considerably better than Gaunce. Horvat is the player you want if you want to build a championship team. He has all the intangibles. He is a Chris Drury type, whose offense is finally kicking in.

All of those players you mention would be weaker picks. I could understand Zadarov, but not those others.

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05-09-2013, 07:20 AM
  #229
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Originally Posted by ottsabrefan View Post
Horvat has scored 44 goals this year (including playoffs). How is that not impressive?
His regular season was not that impressive from a high offensive upside stand point... yes, he improved immensely from his completely unremarkable season prior.... but 33g/28a aren't the kind of numbers I'm looking for when projecting long term offensive production in the NHL

He had an excellent playoff run... and that's what started the hype machine that everyone is jumping on in the last few weeks

Quote:
He is considerably better than Gaunce.
Based on what... you just wrote a sentence


Quote:
Horvat is the player you want if you want to build a championship team. He has all the intangibles. He is a Chris Drury type, whose offense is finally kicking in.
I know exactly who Horvat is, I don't need heartstring comparisons

Quote:
All of those players you mention would be weaker picks. I could understand Zadarov, but not those others.
so you have a draft board? please do share...

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05-09-2013, 07:23 AM
  #230
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Originally Posted by Zip15 View Post
Horvat has you "meh?" Man, since when did our organization become chock full of players with size and talent and hockey sense, who can play against top competition every night? If the goal is the Cup, you need players like Horvat to make it through the slog and win it. While it'd be a completely Darcy thing to do, you can't just cite Girgensons and stop at one of that type of player--and I believe Horvat has a good amount more upside than Z.

I'd absolutely love Horvat at 16. But I think this is all moot, because I think he will go 10-13.
Girgensons
Larsson
Flynn
Kea

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05-09-2013, 08:05 AM
  #231
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Who Will the Sabres Trade Up For?

http://thehockeywriters.com/sabres-i...in-trading-up/

I don't think there's any conceivable scenario where we get into the top three. At least not one where we're happy with what we had to give up.

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05-09-2013, 08:08 AM
  #232
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I'm guessing "no one."

No teams in the top five is going to be interested in trading down. At least not for a price that Darcy would be remotely willing to pay.

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05-09-2013, 08:19 AM
  #233
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
His regular season was not that impressive from a high offensive upside stand point... yes, he improved immensely from his completely unremarkable season prior.... but 33g/28a aren't the kind of numbers I'm looking for when projecting long term offensive production in the NHL

He had an excellent playoff run... and that's what started the hype machine that everyone is jumping on in the last few weeks

Based on what... you just wrote a sentence


I know exactly who Horvat is, I don't need heartstring comparisons


so you have a draft board? please do share...
I do not think you do know who Horvat is, otherwise we would not be having this discussion. It is scary to think that you think the hype on Horvat started in the past few weeks. Try the past two years. He was captain of the Under 17 and is considered by almost everyone who watches the OHL to be better than Domi.

As for his offence, I will repeat he scored 44 goals this year (is 2nd in the playoffs, 16th in regular season). He plays a shutdown game, which includes playing a defence first game (like Landeskog), plays against the other teams top lines and still put up numbers in the same realm as the players you are considering. Imagine if he did not bother worrying about his own zone, like some of those other players you like so much.

It is pretty funny how you say, well that is great he is a clutch playoff performer, who leads his teams to championships, but he only had a decent regular season. I do not think you grasp how much tougher it is to score in the playoffs.

As for how is he better than Gauce...try skating, offensive upside, intensity, hockey sense. I did not think I needed to spell that one out.

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05-09-2013, 08:39 AM
  #234
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16 is going to be a fun pick.

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05-09-2013, 08:39 AM
  #235
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Originally Posted by ottsabrefan View Post
I do not think you do know who Horvat is, otherwise we would not be having this discussion. It is scary to think that you think the hype on Horvat started in the past few weeks. Try the past two years. He was captain of the Under 17 and is considered by almost everyone who watches the OHL to be better than Domi.
I watch the OHL and I don't consider him better than Domi from a draft prospect perspective.

Past 2 years? He was barely on the radar as a 1st round prospect last year when he potted 30 pts. In the 2013 pre-season ranking Rychel and Domi were ranked ahead of him in the OHL rankings by Central Scouting.

At the mid term, Erne, Gauthier, Mantha, Carrier... were all ranked ahead of Horvat.

Quote:
As for his offence, I will repeat he scored 44 goals this year (is 2nd in the playoffs, 16th in regular season). He plays a shutdown game, which includes playing a defence first game (like Landeskog), plays against the other teams top lines and still put up numbers in the same realm as the players you are considering. Imagine if he did not bother worrying about his own zone, like some of those other players you like so much.
He scored 61 pts in 67 regular season games... good for 40th in the OHL.

He is an awesome shut down forward, with limited offensive upside in the NHL. I know what he does, you don't have to explain it, I've seen him play a dozen+ OHL games.

I'm also one of the biggest proponents of the need for Ryan O'reilly type players. Don't think I don't value them....

I just more conscious of what you can get in the mid 1st, and what you can get in the 2nd round.

Quote:
It is pretty funny how you say, well that is great he is a clutch playoff performer, who leads his teams to championships, but he only had a decent regular season. I do not think you grasp how much tougher it is to score in the playoffs.
You don't know me very well

Quote:
As for how is he better than Gauce...try skating, offensive upside, intensity, hockey sense. I did not think I needed to spell that one out.
I don't think there is a significant difference in their skating and offensive upside. I'll give Horvat the edge in "intensity"... hockey sense is fairly debatable.

Gaunce first 2 seasons junior:
133 gms / 39g / 104 pts
Horvat first 2 seasons junior
131 gms / 44g / 91 pts

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05-09-2013, 08:41 AM
  #236
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
Girgensons
Larsson
Flynn
Kea
I would also argue that Horvat is a warrior type but is a bit above all of them with his offensive game at this point. Having a sea of hard-***** in the mid-lines can work, if they have the right sort of franchise defining 1st line center (or in the Pens case, centers). That said, there are others who I may favor by availability more, as you well know.

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05-09-2013, 08:47 AM
  #237
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I would also argue that Horvat is a warrior type but is a bit above all of them with his offensive game at this point. Having a sea of hard-***** in the mid-lines can work, if they have the right sort of franchise defining 1st line center (or in the Pens case, centers).
I agree with the "warrior" label.

I think someone will get a very good player when they draft him.

But we should be looking for those franchise defining forwards/defensemen at #16. I believe this draft is deep enough that we can get a Getzlaf or Giroux at #16.

Yes, being at the top of the draft gives you your best chance to get those franchise defining forwards/defensemen... but they can be plucked in the mid 1st if you scout them right.

Horvat is a near surefire NHLer... but he's not going to be a franchise changing forward... he's going to be a great piece to the puzzle... a GREAT piece....

But, this franchise needs franchise players... and we need to take a shot at one at #16

Lets say his absolute/best case ceiling is Mike Richards? Would you draft Richards over Kopitar? over Brown? Over Doughty?

Yea, Mike Richards was a big piece of that puzzle... but without those top end players (franchise center, franchise defensemen, captain power forward), he doesn't hold nearly the same value.

I love Mike Richards game... but I'd draft Kopitar (11th overall?) over him, Brown (late 1st?), and Doughty (top 5)

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05-09-2013, 08:53 AM
  #238
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If they can't get to #4 for Barkov (the dream scenario since the top 3 isn't even worth dreaming about)... I'd still be interested in moving up a couple spots for Ristolainen

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05-09-2013, 09:48 AM
  #239
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The more and more I study this draft, the more I am convinced that it will be the most interesting draft in a long time. After the top four, it is going to be an absolute crap shoot as far as where certain players go. Nichushkin is such a wild card, very polarizing opinions on him the size and skill is undeniable. From #7 to # 30 there are about 35 players that could be drafted in any position based on a team's assessment of them. Guys like Domi, Lazer, Horvat, Hartman, Erne, Wennberg, Shinkaruk and the large group of dmen are very hard to slot in right now because they all have unique pros and cons that teams will value and rate very differently.

Moving up to grab Barkov would be great but I just don't see the Preds being willing to give it up.
Any two of Monahan, Nichushkin, Domi, Hartman, Ristolainen, Nurse or Zadorov would be a nice 1st round and set this team up nicely. They should also be able to nab two nice players in the 2nd round as well.

Can't wait until June 30th to come around. What they do with Vanek, Miller, Stafford may give them more 1st rounders to work with as we'll. Bring it on.

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05-09-2013, 09:54 AM
  #240
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
I agree with the "warrior" label.

I think someone will get a very good player when they draft him.

But we should be looking for those franchise defining forwards/defensemen at #16. I believe this draft is deep enough that we can get a Getzlaf or Giroux at #16.

Yes, being at the top of the draft gives you your best chance to get those franchise defining forwards/defensemen... but they can be plucked in the mid 1st if you scout them right.

Horvat is a near surefire NHLer... but he's not going to be a franchise changing forward... he's going to be a great piece to the puzzle... a GREAT piece....

But, this franchise needs franchise players... and we need to take a shot at one at #16

Lets say his absolute/best case ceiling is Mike Richards? Would you draft Richards over Kopitar? over Brown? Over Doughty?

Yea, Mike Richards was a big piece of that puzzle... but without those top end players (franchise center, franchise defensemen, captain power forward), he doesn't hold nearly the same value.

I love Mike Richards game... but I'd draft Kopitar (11th overall?) over him, Brown (late 1st?), and Doughty (top 5)
I wonder if his max ceiling is more of a Getzlaf type center than Richards, but what I ger from what you're saying: you want them aiming at skaters who have possible franchise cornerstone upside rather than being stuck in with a certain mold of player. I can get that. I think Zadarov has that sort of upside in the long-term as a possible dominant shut-down, physical d-man the likes of which the Sabres haven't had since Jim Schoenfeld was momentarily healthy.

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05-09-2013, 10:04 AM
  #241
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Anyone think this Valeri Nichushkin will drop if we can't move up? The Russian factor was bad for Grig's last year. If he did drop, would we be interested?

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05-09-2013, 10:11 AM
  #242
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
I agree with the "warrior" label.

I think someone will get a very good player when they draft him.

But we should be looking for those franchise defining forwards/defensemen at #16. I believe this draft is deep enough that we can get a Getzlaf or Giroux at #16.

Yes, being at the top of the draft gives you your best chance to get those franchise defining forwards/defensemen... but they can be plucked in the mid 1st if you scout them right.

Horvat is a near surefire NHLer... but he's not going to be a franchise changing forward... he's going to be a great piece to the puzzle... a GREAT piece....

But, this franchise needs franchise players... and we need to take a shot at one at #16

Lets say his absolute/best case ceiling is Mike Richards? Would you draft Richards over Kopitar? over Brown? Over Doughty?

Yea, Mike Richards was a big piece of that puzzle... but without those top end players (franchise center, franchise defensemen, captain power forward), he doesn't hold nearly the same value.

I love Mike Richards game... but I'd draft Kopitar (11th overall?) over him, Brown (late 1st?), and Doughty (top 5)
Given your (and my) affinity for Ryan O'Reilly, I'm really surprised you're not firmly aboard the Horvat train. Many of us were prepared to give up significant assets to acquire ROR this past season, and I think Horvat has the ability to be a similar player--a dominant possession player who produces against other teams' top lines, and, as added bonuses, excels on faceoffs and is probably the best shot-blocking forward in the OHL. At 16, I think you pick that type of player every day of the week.

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05-09-2013, 10:18 AM
  #243
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I wonder if his max ceiling is more of a Getzlaf type center than Richards, but what I ger from what you're saying: you want them aiming at skaters who have possible franchise cornerstone upside rather than being stuck in with a certain mold of player. I can get that. I think Zadarov has that sort of upside in the long-term as a possible dominant shut-down, physical d-man the likes of which the Sabres haven't had since Jim Schoenfeld was momentarily healthy.
If I thought Horvat had that type of ceiling (Getzlaf), I'd be all over him... I just don't see the offensive skill for that type of projection.

and yes, I want to take a risk on a potential homerun 1st liner/1st pairing guy at #16... rather than drafting the lower ceiling/but much safer-surefire guy in Horvat.

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05-09-2013, 10:33 AM
  #244
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
If I thought Horvat had that type of ceiling (Getzlaf), I'd be all over him... I just don't see the offensive skill for that type of projection.

and yes, I want to take a risk on a potential homerun 1st liner/1st pairing guy at #16... rather than drafting the lower ceiling/but much safer-surefire guy in Horvat.
You keep saying this, but what forward do you see with more upside at 16? (BTW, I think Zadorov being there at 16 is a borderline pipedream--I think it's tantamount to assuming Shinkaruk will be there at 16.) Erne? Rychel? Zykov?

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05-09-2013, 10:37 AM
  #245
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Given your (and my) affinity for Ryan O'Reilly, I'm really surprised you're not firmly aboard the Horvat train. Many of us were prepared to give up significant assets to acquire ROR this past season, and I think Horvat has the ability to be a similar player--a dominant possession player who produces against other teams' top lines, and, as added bonuses, excels on faceoffs and is probably the best shot-blocking forward in the OHL. At 16, I think you pick that type of player every day of the week.
Yes, I already made the O'reilly comparison.
Yes, I was/am willing to give up significant assets for O'reilly
BUT
I'd still rather give up significant assets for Getzlaf/Kopitar/Keith/etc rather than Oreilly

Maybe I'm doing a **** poor job of conveying the difference between my love of Oreilly type players, and the value I see in this draft.

I'm super high on Gauthier... and think he has that Getzlaf/Kopitar, total package upside.

I'm high on Zadarov with his size/physical play/skating ability putting him into the elite potential pool

I think Zykov is a first line goal scoring talent, and a Tarasenko clone.

Kerby Rychel gives me a power forward *****
and I have had a soft spot for the way Erne plays for a long time

I expect more than 1 of these guys to be available at #16, and all of them I project to different degrees of 1st line talent.

Ryan Pulock is super solid and safe, in a similar way to Horvat.... I wouldn't hate either of these picks, I just have a tough time moving 15 players off the board, and seeing Horvat as a BPA pick.

It would be a passion pick, the type of player you fall in love with... and feel good about drafting... but in the back of your mind, you may have passed on a franchise changer.

Maybe akin to taking Fehr over Getzlaf, or Richards over Perry...

That's just where I see things presently... I am very high on some players... maybe they'll be busts.... with the quantity we have in picks, I want to take the chance at 16...

Horvat is not in my top 20.

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05-09-2013, 10:42 AM
  #246
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You keep saying this, but what forward do you see with more upside at 16? (BTW, I think Zadorov being there at 16 is a borderline pipedream--I think it's tantamount to assuming Shinkaruk will be there at 16.) Erne? Rychel? Zykov?
see my last post for further detail... but yes, these are the guys I'd be looking at at #16 (assuming the following 2nd tier players were taken Monahan, Shinkaruk, Domi - And I have some of the below guys ranked ahead of them)

My targets at 16 would be, in order, Zadarov, Gauthier, Zykov...(slight drop off)... Rychel, Erne, Pulock

(I'm trying to catch up on Wennburg, I haven't seen much...)

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05-09-2013, 10:54 AM
  #247
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post

and yes, I want to take a risk on a potential homerun 1st liner/1st pairing guy at #16... rather than drafting the lower ceiling/but much safer-surefire guy in Horvat.
Isn't Buffalo better off adding more sure-fire NHLers to the mix and taking its licks next year en route to picking top five in the 2014 draft?

I think so.

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05-09-2013, 10:55 AM
  #248
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1. Colorado - Seth Jones
2. Florida - Jonathan Drouin
3. Tampa Bay - Nathan MacKinnon
4. Nashville - Alexsander Barkov
5. Carolina - Valery Nichushkin
6. Calgary - Elias Lindholm
7. Edmonton - Darnell Nurse
8. Buffalo - Rasmus Ristolainen
9. New Jersey - Sean Monahan
10. Dallas Hunter - Hunter Shinkaruk
11. Philadelphia - Nikita Zadorov
12. Phoenix - Max Domi
13. Winnipeg - Ryan Pulock
14. Columbus - Mirco Mueller
15. NY Islanders - Valentin Zykov
16. Buffalo - Frederik Gauthier

I'd be very happy with this scenario

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05-09-2013, 10:59 AM
  #249
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Isn't Buffalo better off adding more sure-fire NHLers to the mix and taking its licks next year en route to picking top five in the 2014 draft?

I think so.
As we learned this year, failing ourselves into the top 5 is pretty difficult. The Sabres are a young team, and as bad as I expect them to be next year, there WILL be growth from a lot of young players.

I think we have a treasure trove of high end picks over the next few years, and ALL of them should be spent trying to hit high end home runs.

Sure file talent can be filled in later

It doesn't mean that I don't want to add Horvat type players through the draft over this period of time... it just means at 16, I see much higher ceiling players

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05-09-2013, 11:01 AM
  #250
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
1. Colorado - Seth Jones
2. Florida - Jonathan Drouin
3. Tampa Bay - Nathan MacKinnon
4. Nashville - Alexsander Barkov
5. Carolina - Valery Nichushkin
6. Calgary - Elias Lindholm
7. Edmonton - Darnell Nurse
8. Buffalo - Rasmus Ristolainen
9. New Jersey - Sean Monahan
10. Dallas Hunter - Hunter Shinkaruk
11. Philadelphia - Nikita Zadorov
12. Phoenix - Max Domi
13. Winnipeg - Ryan Pulock
14. Columbus - Mirco Mueller
15. NY Islanders - Valentin Zykov
16. Buffalo - Frederik Gauthier

I'd be very happy with this scenario
If we passed on Monahan, I'd **** my pants. Guy is going to be a 1C. I don't think we have any locks in this organization to be a 1C, Grigs included.

Note: It's likely moot, because I think Carolina picks him at 5, or Calgary at 6.

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