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Trade Rumours and Proposals Thread Part 17: What does "bold" mean?

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Old
05-16-2013, 01:43 PM
  #576
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Originally Posted by KlimasLoveChild View Post
I was commenting on his post as a whole more then just his reference to the corsi numbers. Clearly you need to take more into account then one stat. He also mention he was facing weak competion, had a team worst plus minus, was seeking a ridiculous contract and right at the end of his career. I took it as my opportunity to hack on everyone who seems to think this guy is our answer to a #1 dman which he clearly isn't.

Yes I think Hamonic would be a good addition. He definitely has the potential to be better then my Steve Staios clone expectations. Do I think the oilers have a chance in hell of getting him? Sadly no.
Agreed, next to no chance, but he's not even in the top-5 for Corsi for the Isles. I Find some of the metrics seem to lack in obvious spots.

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05-16-2013, 02:11 PM
  #577
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Originally Posted by Jimmi Jenkins View Post
Not really, See Travis Hammonic.
Using 2011-2012 which is a larger sample size the advanced stats show me that Hamonic played against the top competiton on his team for d-men (Corsi Rel QoC of .811) and didn't bleed chances either (#2 for d-men on the Isles in Corsi...and net postive in Corsi Relative).

For a young d-man those are promising numbers imo.

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05-16-2013, 02:35 PM
  #578
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Originally Posted by Jimmi Jenkins View Post
So looking at that "metric" it tells me Travis Hammonic is pretty awful as a "corsi" hockey player.

Would you, or anyone, trade for him and do you think it would make the team better right now?

Because I sure as **** do.

There is some value in Corsi, but it is FAR from the whole story on hockey or on players. See Corey Potter's Corsi and it should become clear.
That is why I mentioned Corsi QoC. Hammonic has a 0.732 rating, meaning that he is playing against quality competition.

His on ice corsi number is low because of this reason, he is a shutdown defence man.

You use advanced stats to better understand the play of a player, they don't exactly define a player, they just help support certain traits.

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05-16-2013, 02:44 PM
  #579
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Originally Posted by Jimmi Jenkins View Post
Agreed, next to no chance, but he's not even in the top-5 for Corsi for the Isles. I Find some of the metrics seem to lack in obvious spots.
In the case that I used them, was showing a player who led the defence on his team in ice time and scoring was not their best defence man, not even close.

Streit plays against weak competition and still the ice is tilted against him when he is on the ice. He simply is not a good defence man when it comes to 5on5 hockey. He gets scored on more than his team scores when he is on the ice.

Islander fans know this already, advanced stats help the people who can not watch him play better understand what the Islander fans are talking about.

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05-16-2013, 02:46 PM
  #580
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Originally Posted by BowDangles View Post
That is why I mentioned Corsi QoC. Hammonic has a 0.732 rating, meaning that he is playing against quality competition.

His on ice corsi number is low because of this reason, he is a shutdown defence man.

You use advanced stats to better understand the play of a player, they don't exactly define a player, they just help support certain traits.
So at this point you seem to be nullifying the impact of your earlier post. You have just explained why Hammonic's Corsi should not be held against him. How do we interpret Streit's. Are his relatively poor numbers negated by the quality of his competition. If not should we factor in the impact of his inexperienced partners?

In fact how is QoC measured? Could it be that this is iitself a flawed stat that is based on the same sort of inefficient measure of a players own abilities?

What about looking at different variants of the same stat. For example Tavares' Corsi for is the highest when he is playing with Streit. Together corsi suggest that they are quite dominant. So since Sreit does well working with talented players, perhaps one could actuallly use the same stat to justify spending the money. IS my take less valid than yours. The same stat seems to lead to vastly different conclussions depending on how you look at it.


Last edited by Fourier: 05-16-2013 at 03:05 PM.
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05-16-2013, 03:09 PM
  #581
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Originally Posted by Fourier View Post
So at this point you seem to be nullifying the impact of your earlier post. You have just explained why Hammonic's Corsi should not be held against him. How do we interpret Streit's. Are his relatively poor numbers negated by the quality of his competition. If not should we factor in the impact of his inexperienced partners?

In fact how is QoC measured? Could it be that this is iitself a flawed stat that is based on the same sort of inefficient measure of a players own abilities?

What about looking at different variants of the same stat. For example Tavares' Corsi for is the highest when he is playing with Streit. Together corsi suggest that they are quite dominant. So since Sreit does well working with talented players, perhaps one could actuallly use the same stat to justify spending the money. IS my take less valid than yours. The same stat seems to lead to vastly different conclussions depending on how you look at it.
People need to realize advanced stats have flaws. There was a guy on one of the many local shows talking about puck possession and the reason he was going against the Leafs as because they had horrible puck possession according to this stat. According to the same stat the Devils were 3rd best in the league.

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05-16-2013, 03:35 PM
  #582
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Corsi is a worthless stat if you use it as a stand-alone number. QOC does have some effect, but nothing has more of an impact on Corsi than Zonestart. And using Corsi without taking into account where the puck is to start off doesn't tell you anything.

The problem isn't with Corsi itself, the problem is that so few people know what it is or how to use it.

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05-16-2013, 03:37 PM
  #583
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Originally Posted by joestevens29 View Post
People need to realize advanced stats have flaws. There was a guy on one of the many local shows talking about puck possession and the reason he was going against the Leafs as because they had horrible puck possession according to this stat. According to the same stat the Devils were 3rd best in the league.
Using the last full regular season of 2011-12, of the Top 16 teams in scoring chances for/against as measured by Fenwick %(Fenwick is Corsi minus blocked shots), 14 of those teams made the playoffs. Pretty decent correlation imo.

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05-16-2013, 03:49 PM
  #584
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Originally Posted by misfit View Post
Corsi is a worthless stat if you use it as a stand-alone number. QOC does have some effect, but nothing has more of an impact on Corsi than Zonestart. And using Corsi without taking into account where the puck is to start off doesn't tell you anything.

The problem isn't with Corsi itself, the problem is that so few people know what it is or how to use it.
I agree that alone the Corsi stat doesn't tell the story. It's just part of the puzzle. The stats for Corsi, Zone starts, etc. are all there however for one to break down.

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05-16-2013, 05:09 PM
  #585
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Originally Posted by Conkanen View Post
Using the last full regular season of 2011-12, of the Top 16 teams in scoring chances for/against as measured by Fenwick %(Fenwick is Corsi minus blocked shots), 14 of those teams made the playoffs. Pretty decent correlation imo.
Corsi based stats make far more sense for looking a teams. What they do not do very well at all is to isolate individual contributions.

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05-16-2013, 05:32 PM
  #586
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So Fourier what are you implying? That Streit is a good player? Or Yandle?

My eyes tell me try aren't very good (no better than average). I believe the advanced stats say the same but maybe you can't rely on them.

What is your opinion on these two players?

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05-16-2013, 06:10 PM
  #587
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My eyes and advanced statistics tell me that if there's any god damn way to get Tyler Myers out of Buffalo, you get Tyler Myers out of Buffalo.

Ruff did such a pathetic job working with Myers. "My name is Lindy Ruff, and I'm going to try to convert a Calder-winning offensive defenceman into a stay-at-home defenceman by ignoring everything about him except his Chara-esque wingspan."

Eberle for Myers? Done.

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05-16-2013, 06:19 PM
  #588
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Originally Posted by Panda Bear View Post
My eyes and advanced statistics tell me that if there's any god damn way to get Tyler Myers out of Buffalo, you get Tyler Myers out of Buffalo.

Ruff did such a pathetic job working with Myers. "My name is Lindy Ruff, and I'm going to try to convert a Calder-winning offensive defenceman into a stay-at-home defenceman by ignoring everything about him except his Chara-esque wingspan."

Eberle for Myers? Done.
I'd rather move the pick for Myers. He's a right handed dman so that would mean that Petry would have to get dealt in another deal to make room for him on the back end. Maybe move him for Goligoski?

Goligoski-Myers
Smid-Schultz
Klefbom-Fistric

Looks good to me.

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05-16-2013, 07:47 PM
  #589
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Originally Posted by doubledown99 View Post
So Fourier what are you implying? That Streit is a good player? Or Yandle?

My eyes tell me try aren't very good (no better than average). I believe the advanced stats say the same but maybe you can't rely on them.

What is your opinion on these two players?
I think it is probably well know that I am not a fan of the way most of these advanced stats are used.

As to the two players you mention, I am not a big fan of going after Yandle. He has talent but my personal opinion is that he would be far more exposed with the OIlers than he is in Phoenix. Their team defense is generally very good and that makes up for a lot of potential flaws. But my biggest objection to any talk of Yandle is that he will cost you an arm and a leg to obtain. Supposedly they want two impact forwards for him.

Streit is obviously much older but he is still an effective puck mover. He gives the team a left handed offensive threat something that they do not have. He can also get the puck out of your own end quick so for a team that can hurt you on the transition like the Oilers that is valuable.

He also has a big shot and knows how to use it. None of their left handed defensemen on the Oilers ever shoot the puck and on the rare occasions they do no one is going to worry much about the conseqeunces.

I did not see Streit that much this year but I did watch the Islanders a fari bit last year. He never was a great defensive dmen but he can still play. He is a smart player as well an I think his experince would be good for a guy like Schultz the Younger.

In the end what I like about Streit is that all he costs you is cap space. Sign him, even for three years and find a cheap RHD who can play defense and I think you are moving forward. But I also think that something like '

Smid J. Schultz
Streit Petry
Klefbom/N. Schultz Fistric

could work as well. At the very least Streit is a significant upgrade over a wounded Whitney.

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05-16-2013, 08:17 PM
  #590
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I am not moving our 7th oa for Myers, yes he could return and is young, for me it all depends on who is available. If we can finally get our 2C then I don't move it.

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05-16-2013, 08:54 PM
  #591
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Originally Posted by misfit View Post
Corsi is a worthless stat if you use it as a stand-alone number. QOC does have some effect, but nothing has more of an impact on Corsi than Zonestart. And using Corsi without taking into account where the puck is to start off doesn't tell you anything.

The problem isn't with Corsi itself, the problem is that so few people know what it is or how to use it.
The old "for the thinking fan" baloney.

How many times has the gospel been rearranged, discarded, then repackaged again?

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05-16-2013, 09:08 PM
  #592
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You can't go by just one stat, you have to take them all into consideration and also watch the player, on Lowetide they have been talking about this a lot.

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05-16-2013, 09:29 PM
  #593
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Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
The old "for the thinking fan" baloney.

How many times has the gospel been rearranged, discarded, then repackaged again?
It's really not that complicated.

Corsi is a measure of shots directed at the opposition net minus shots directed at a players' own net when he's on the ice (per 60 minutes of icetime, I believe).

If people try to make it mean anything else, or fail to understand that this is all the information it's giving them, that's their problem. But that doesn't mean there's nothing to be taken from it either. It isn't voodoo.

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05-16-2013, 10:10 PM
  #594
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It's really not that complicated.

Corsi is a measure of shots directed at the opposition net minus shots directed at a players' own net when he's on the ice (per 60 minutes of icetime, I believe).

If people try to make it mean anything else, or fail to understand that this is all the information it's giving them, that's their problem. But that doesn't mean there's nothing to be taken from it either. It isn't voodoo.
Seriously though. We've been talking about plus/minus since the dawn of time but heaven forbid we confuse the BLEEP out of people and add shots and permutations thereof. If people find that confusing stay the bleep away from Sabremetrics or your head may explode. It isn't rocket science. Spend an hour or two reading up on this stuff and you may surprise yourself.

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05-16-2013, 10:11 PM
  #595
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Originally Posted by misfit View Post
It's really not that complicated.

Corsi is a measure of shots directed at the opposition net minus shots directed at a players' own net when he's on the ice (per 60 minutes of icetime, I believe).

If people try to make it mean anything else, or fail to understand that this is all the information it's giving them, that's their problem. But that doesn't mean there's nothing to be taken from it either. It isn't voodoo.
Well the parameters for determining QOC has changed over time has it not? Probably because there was a time that Matt Cooke was "tougher comp" than Malkin.

Then there was the time that OnSv% became the stat de jour in an effort to explain Horcoff's horrid +/- numbers.

Corsi was developed to gauge how hard a goalie was working based on the number of shots directed towards him. It really was never meant to gauge the effectiveness of individual skaters.

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05-16-2013, 10:12 PM
  #596
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Originally Posted by Conkanen View Post
Seriously though. We've been talking about plus/minus since the dawn of time but heaven forbid we confuse the BLEEP out of people and add shots and permutations thereof. If people find that confusing stay the bleep away from Sabremetrics or your head may explode. It isn't rocket science. Spend an hour or two reading up on this stuff and you may surprise yourself.
Or you may find that it is complete and utter baloney.

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05-16-2013, 10:22 PM
  #597
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I think it is probably well know that I am not a fan of the way most of these advanced stats are used.

As to the two players you mention, I am not a big fan of going after Yandle. He has talent but my personal opinion is that he would be far more exposed with the OIlers than he is in Phoenix. Their team defense is generally very good and that makes up for a lot of potential flaws. But my biggest objection to any talk of Yandle is that he will cost you an arm and a leg to obtain. Supposedly they want two impact forwards for him.

Streit is obviously much older but he is still an effective puck mover. He gives the team a left handed offensive threat something that they do not have. He can also get the puck out of your own end quick so for a team that can hurt you on the transition like the Oilers that is valuable.

He also has a big shot and knows how to use it. None of their left handed defensemen on the Oilers ever shoot the puck and on the rare occasions they do no one is going to worry much about the conseqeunces.

I did not see Streit that much this year but I did watch the Islanders a fari bit last year. He never was a great defensive dmen but he can still play. He is a smart player as well an I think his experince would be good for a guy like Schultz the Younger.

In the end what I like about Streit is that all he costs you is cap space. Sign him, even for three years and find a cheap RHD who can play defense and I think you are moving forward. But I also think that something like '

Smid J. Schultz
Streit Petry
Klefbom/N. Schultz Fistric

could work as well. At the very least Streit is a significant upgrade over a wounded Whitney.
One player that I'd love to add to our team is Adam McQuaid. As a 3rd pairing RHD he'd be a tough and hard to play against 3rd pairing guy.

I also agree that I'd like to see us sign Streit instead of dealing lots of quality assets for Yandle. IMO Marincin likely ends up as a good puck moving LHD for us in the next couple of years.

Quote:
Originally Posted by misfit View Post
It's really not that complicated.

Corsi is a measure of shots directed at the opposition net minus shots directed at a players' own net when he's on the ice (per 60 minutes of icetime, I believe).

If people try to make it mean anything else, or fail to understand that this is all the information it's giving them, that's their problem. But that doesn't mean there's nothing to be taken from it either. It isn't voodoo.
IMO it really isn't a very helpful stat, it seems to be getting more specific however it still has little to no value to me as long as a Ryan Smyth clapper or dump in on net is considered the same as a tap-in or a Stamkos onetimer. IMO until we see stats that are detailed to the point of including scoring chances for/against and chances that individual players create or factor in in a primary sense, these stats won't mean much. Now I realize that this would take a lot of eyes with little deviation in terms of their objectivity, but that IMO would be the Holy Grail of advanced stats. I for one wouldn't be surprised if NHL teams do exactly this or at least they should, maybe it's unfair of me to expect so much, but my motto has always been if it's worth doing, it's worth doing right.

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Old
05-16-2013, 10:32 PM
  #598
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Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
Well the parameters for determining QOC has changed over time has it not? Probably because there was a time that Matt Cooke was "tougher comp" than Malkin.

Then there was the time that OnSv% became the stat de jour in an effort to explain Horcoff's horrid +/- numbers.

Corsi was developed to gauge how hard a goalie was working based on the number of shots directed towards him. It really was never meant to gauge the effectiveness of individual skaters.
And that IMO is where it's worth is. A goalie will react to shots that are blocked just as they would to a shot that isn't because they have to assume that it's coming on net.

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05-16-2013, 10:33 PM
  #599
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I'd rather move the pick for Myers. He's a right handed dman so that would mean that Petry would have to get dealt in another deal to make room for him on the back end. Maybe move him for Goligoski?

Goligoski-Myers
Smid-Schultz
Klefbom-Fistric

Looks good to me.
Or you have a very good right side of the defence.....IMHO Justin Schultz should be a 3rd pairing dman with lots of pp time until his stamina and defensive awareness improve ......you could see he ran out of gas playing 23-25 mins a night all season..Petry should be a second pairing guy on a good team...not a top pairing player.....And a healthy Myers is a top pairing guy......Atleast Petry is on a cheap deal next yr and Schultz on an entry level deal gives some cap flexibility to keep all 3 RH dman for next season ...then depending on the cap in 2 seasons and the play of all 3 a competent GM should be able to figure out who to keep

Myers and Justin get PP time
Smid,Petry,Myers, ????? get PK time

????-Myers
Smid-Petry
?????- Schultz
?????


Potential players To fill the ????
N. Schultz
O. Klefbom( should be in AHL tho)
M. Fistric
C. Potter


A good defence should be able to roll all 3 pairs at evens and have guys get extra time on special teams, if Ralph could have Potter as 7/8 and Klefbom/Marincin as depth in the AHL it will greatly help this organization get to the playoffs


Last edited by Rafters: 05-16-2013 at 10:40 PM.
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05-16-2013, 10:33 PM
  #600
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I'm doing reconnaissance in the Buffalo Sabres forum re: Myers.

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