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Old
05-17-2013, 09:07 AM
  #151
shaner89
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Imagine he had a center. Lock him up long term. Guy is incredible. Winner

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05-17-2013, 09:22 AM
  #152
John Stamos
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Originally Posted by veedubn1 View Post
Really?

John Tavares signed a 6 year $33M deal.

You don't think the two are comparable?
what a bargain

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05-17-2013, 09:57 AM
  #153
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If we get Kessel on a Tavares type deal, that's a steal.

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05-17-2013, 10:05 AM
  #154
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We already had Kessel on a Tavares-like deal, he's entering the final year of it now. Kessel's next contract will be similar to other UFAs of his ilk, as we unfortunately don't have the leverage of RFA status like Tavares. Somewhere around $7 million average cap-hit should be fine.

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05-17-2013, 10:16 AM
  #155
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Quote:
Originally Posted by veedubn1 View Post
Really?

John Tavares signed a 6 year $33M deal.

You don't think the two are comparable?
There's a pretty big difference between the situations. Tavares' contract was signed just prior to his third NHL season, and was his second contract. This will be Kessel's third contract.

Tavares' contract was based off of two seasons, a 24 goal 54 point season and a 29 goal 67 point season.

Kessel's will be based off of four straight 30 goal pace season (three of which he actually scored thirty in), and also finishing top 10 in league scoring in two straight seasons.

Tavares' contract was based much more on his future potential, while Kessel's will be based on current play.

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05-17-2013, 10:20 AM
  #156
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Originally Posted by Duke Silver View Post
From a pure production standpoint:

- I ran a report to get the top-100 scorers over the last 3 seasons.
- I removed anyone with under 0.8 points per game, as their production doesn't compare with Kessel's.
- I removed anybody who signed their current contract as an RFA (not a good comparable to UFA contracts)
- I removed anyone who signed their current contracts more than 5 years ago, since the cap has changed considerably from then.
- Then I removed cap circumventive contracts because their annual salary values are not reflective of player ability due to backdiving final years.
- Lastly, I removed any contracts signed after the age of 35.

That gave me a list of 13 players: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin, Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, Joe Thornton, Jarome Iginla, Mike Ribeiro, Brad Richards, Rick Nash, Chris Kunitz, Patrick Sharp, Alexander Semin, Mikko Koivu.

I took these players' salaries and divided by the 82-game paces of their production, to get a $/point value. Averaged these $/point values and multiplied them by Kessel's point-production this season over 82 games: 88 points.

$7.9M. Factor in the fact that his agent holds all the cards in this negotiation and we're looking at north of $8M.
Meh, I don't mind at all. In fact I simple have no issue with paying him that much.

We either pay our current top 10 in the league scorer 8 million dollars to continue what he's doing, or pay 7 million for a 65 point scorer in the free agent market trying to replace out best player.

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05-17-2013, 10:47 AM
  #157
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id rather pay Kessel 8 mil than have 2 bozaks for 4

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05-17-2013, 10:51 AM
  #158
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One thing we can all agree on; we can't afford to lose him for nothing.

Either sign him long-term or trade him for a big return.

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05-17-2013, 10:54 AM
  #159
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I love Kessel, but north of 7 million long term is an overpayment.

The Leafs have the exclusive right of offering him an 8 year term as opposed to a 6 year term. Therefore, he should be willing to accept a lower annual salary and average cap hit in exchange for 2 additional guaranteed years on his contract.

I think an 8 year contract at 6.5 million per season should suffice.

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05-17-2013, 11:15 AM
  #160
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Clark4Ever View Post
I love Kessel, but north of 7 million long term is an overpayment.

The Leafs have the exclusive right of offering him an 8 year term as opposed to a 6 year term. Therefore, he should be willing to accept a lower annual salary and average cap hit in exchange for 2 additional guaranteed years on his contract.

I think an 8 year contract at 6.5 million per season should suffice.
I'm close to this, i was thinking 50 mil over 8 years. 6.25 annual cap hit.

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05-17-2013, 11:34 AM
  #161
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Clark4Ever View Post
I love Kessel, but north of 7 million long term is an overpayment.

The Leafs have the exclusive right of offering him an 8 year term as opposed to a 6 year term. Therefore, he should be willing to accept a lower annual salary and average cap hit in exchange for 2 additional guaranteed years on his contract.

I think an 8 year contract at 6.5 million per season should suffice.
I thought the numbers were 8 yrs for your own FA, but 7 yrs for others... the benefit being 1 additional.

I would be happy with a cap hit of $6.5M, but I think it will be more....

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05-17-2013, 11:34 AM
  #162
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I wonder if a shorter term contract would be beneficial? Four years at a huge cap hit, allow Kessel to keep proving himself instead of falling into the Lecavalier trap.

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05-17-2013, 12:07 PM
  #163
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How much is the maximum you'd be willing to pay him? I would pay up to $9 mil to lock him up.

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05-17-2013, 12:09 PM
  #164
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I'm comfortable with 6.5-7mil, it would be too risky for anything higher imo.

edit: Maximum I'd give him is 7.5mil per.

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05-17-2013, 12:22 PM
  #165
John Stamos
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8 years - 7 million

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05-17-2013, 12:27 PM
  #166
deepz
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Clark4Ever View Post
I love Kessel, but north of 7 million long term is an overpayment.
It's absolutely not in this market.

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05-17-2013, 12:35 PM
  #167
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Gotta try and keep the cap hit under 7M... It's tough to build a contender when individual players make more than 10% of the cap each (unless one of those players is Crosby/Malkin).

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05-17-2013, 12:44 PM
  #168
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Quote:
Originally Posted by veedubn1 View Post
Gotta try and keep the cap hit under 7M... It's tough to build a contender when individual players make more than 10% of the cap each (unless one of those players is Crosby/Malkin).
If we sign him long enough the majority of years with his contract will be under 10%. I can't see the cap still being under 70m in say 3-4 years.

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05-17-2013, 12:44 PM
  #169
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Quote:
Originally Posted by veedubn1 View Post
Gotta try and keep the cap hit under 7M... It's tough to build a contender when individual players make more than 10% of the cap each (unless one of those players is Crosby/Malkin).
Like Tavares?

It'll be closer to 8 than 7, never mind under. He's proven his worth and will get paid accordingly.

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05-17-2013, 01:05 PM
  #170
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I bet he signs at 8x8.

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05-17-2013, 01:15 PM
  #171
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I would love to get him on an 8 year 7.5 million deal. I think that would be fair. Lock him up long term. top 10 forward in the game easy for the years to come.
of course if he is devastated and thinking about leaving trade him for a package. No hesitation.

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05-17-2013, 01:26 PM
  #172
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Quote:
Originally Posted by veedubn1 View Post
Gotta try and keep the cap hit under 7M... It's tough to build a contender when individual players make more than 10% of the cap each (unless one of those players is Crosby/Malkin).
I think people underestimate the ability of a team to win with players at 10 percent of the cap.

LA won last year and had TWO players that made more than 10 percent of the cap. And neither was Crosby or Malkin!

Boston won with Chara making more than ten percent of the cap.

It's actually not that uncommon...

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05-17-2013, 01:30 PM
  #173
theIceWookie
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Originally Posted by Krazy View Post
I would love to get him on an 8 year 7.5 million deal. I think that would be fair. Lock him up long term. top 10 forward in the game easy for the years to come.
of course if he is devastated and thinking about leaving trade him for a package. No hesitation.
8 years at 7.4 is my guess. A very easy 2 million dollar a year pay raise, just over a 37 percent raise per season

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05-18-2013, 09:39 PM
  #174
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Hey guys, I completely forgot, but remember that Eberle vs Kessel poll last year? Pretty sure Eberle won that by a fair margin What a joke HF can be sometimes.

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05-18-2013, 09:49 PM
  #175
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Clark4Ever View Post
I love Kessel, but north of 7 million long term is an overpayment.

The Leafs have the exclusive right of offering him an 8 year term as opposed to a 6 year term. Therefore, he should be willing to accept a lower annual salary and average cap hit in exchange for 2 additional guaranteed years on his contract.

I think an 8 year contract at 6.5 million per season should suffice.
If Semin is paid 7.5, Kessel is worth that and possibly more. Kessel is a better player than Semin.

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