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Detroit Eliminates Anaheim in 7 Games

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05-13-2013, 01:30 AM
  #126
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Originally Posted by GKJ View Post
Did you take more shots, or did you get more shots on goal? And beyond that, how much of that were when they were down by 2 goals in the 3rd period?
No team in the league is better at keeping shots away from their net. It's no coincidence Detroit had more missed shots than anyone and the Ducks were one of the top blocking teams, it's what the Ducks do.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Master_Of_Districts View Post
The Wings were unlucky to get outscored on aggregate, given that they won the territorial battle, and generally played better.

Fortunately, they managed to prevail regardless. Justice was done!
So, keeping that in mind, how did the Ducks regress? That's exactly what happened in the regular season, they lost the territorial battle, but scored more goals. If the Ducks regressed to the mean, like you and many others claimed, they wouldn't have done that.

Maybe it's time to realize stats like Fenwick and Corsi are designed to measure a style of play, not level of play, and the Ducks play a style that goes completely against that philosophy.

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05-13-2013, 01:30 AM
  #127
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So I guess the "advanced stats nerds" were right about the Ducks all season?

Score adjusted Fenwick is a real statistic and should be taken seriously. The Ducks were in the bottom ten the entire year and the Wings in the top ten. Hence, the series.

Now obviously it could have gone either way in a seven game series, but the better team won. Period.

Boo on the Ducks for robbing the league of the best sunbelt team matchup ever.

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05-13-2013, 01:31 AM
  #128
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Originally Posted by Static View Post
Fenwick also relies a ton on goalie save percentages and doesn't factor in play style nor quality of chances. Detroit probably outshot Anaheim in this series but I'd bet my foot Anaheim had more quality chances.

Your data is skewed in that it lacks context completely. It also doesn't take into account fluctuations from year to year as a factor of a team's core play style. The kings are a great example of this. Much was made of anaheim's shooting percentage, when in fact, L.A.'s actually fluctuated more than the Duck's from last year to this.

Where we're the people screaming luck at them? Last year they had a .924 SP built into their advanced stats data. That is unusually high, but nobody said a word about it, even after it regressed 20 points this year.

All it feels like is a team nobody thought would be good performing well and people cherry picking to fid something wrong with it. Advanced stats are a great thing, I'm a huge Sabremetrics fan, but hockey's versions are still too broad for my tastes.
LA's fluctuation last year was based a lot on low shooting percentages. Then they made a trade where they got a dominant possession player, while shedding a possession-bleeding defenseman in order to call one up from the minors who was far superior. Granted that Sutter made some changes in the system, but some numbers are a result of the system that's played. If you're numbers are bad, then you have a bad system, not the other way around. They only had a handful of games with Carter + Voynov to show that, and as a result many in the advanced stats community saw what the Kings were doing coming. Even then, they were 4th in Fenwick-Close last year and were 1st this year. And last year Anaheim was bottom-third just as they were this year.

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05-13-2013, 01:32 AM
  #129
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Originally Posted by Master_Of_Districts View Post
Once again, the distinction eludes you.

Seven games is a poor sample for results, but not for other stats, like shots.



No - my prediction that DET would win had an utterly rational basis.

I'd gladly explain it you if I thought that you had a hope in hell of understanding it.
I'm simply pointing out that nothing changed from the regular season. There was no regression, no luck running out. Maybe it would've happened next round, but it didn't happen this round.

And I don't doubt that you thought it was rational. And explain away, because as someone who watched every second of this series, I can guarantee the logic behind your prediction doesn't mesh with what actually happened.

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05-13-2013, 01:33 AM
  #130
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+1, kid looks like a stud. Kinda like Helm for us but with hands, very jealous of the Ducks about him.
I think he tied the lead for rookie playoff points tonight. Shame he's done for the season because his improved in the last 7 games was incredible. He went front generating a ton of chances and not finishing to finishing them. Definitely a bright spot for the Ducks. Congrats on the win Wings.

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05-13-2013, 01:37 AM
  #131
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GKJ View Post
LA's fluctuation last year was based a lot on low shooting percentages. Then they made a trade where they got a dominant possession player, while shedding a possession-bleeding defenseman in order to call one up from the minors who was far superior. Granted that Sutter made some changes in the system, but some numbers are a result of the system that's played. If you're numbers are bad, then you have a bad system, not the other way around. They only had a handful of games with Carter + Voynov to show that, and as a result many in the advanced stats community saw what the Kings were doing coming. Even then, they were 4th in Fenwick-Close last year and were 1st this year. And last year Anaheim was bottom-third just as they were this year.
So, basically, if Fenwick's stats don't reward your style of play, your style of play is bad. That's hilarious, but I think I understand this conversation now.

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05-13-2013, 01:38 AM
  #132
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Originally Posted by GKJ View Post
LA's fluctuation last year was based a lot on low shooting percentages. Then they made a trade where they got a dominant possession player, while shedding a possession-bleeding defenseman in order to call one up from the minors who was far superior. Granted that Sutter made some changes in the system, but some numbers are a result of the system that's played. They only had a handful of games with Carter + Voynov to show that, and as a result many in the advanced stats community saw what the Kings were doing coming. Even then, they were 4th in Fenwick-Close last year and were 1st this year. And last year Anaheim was bottom-third just as they were this year.
LA has low shooting percentages because they take a lot of low percentage shots. They fire it from everywhere and hope for the best. Nothing wrong with that strategy, it's a strategy that won them a cup, but it's just that, a strategy. Guys who believe strongly in Fenwick can cherry-pick cases like the Kings winning and Ducks losing out, and in doing so they ignore every other case, like the teams ahead of the Kings last year in Fenwick bowing out of the playoffs early, or other "unsustainable" teams doing just fine.

Fenwick works in some cases because, typically, the logic is solid. But it doesn't account for a team like the Ducks who strategically allow teams to put more pucks towards their net. Stats like Fenwick and Corsi don't work without context, and it's something you guys need to realize.

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05-13-2013, 01:38 AM
  #133
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Congrats Wings!!! I never seem to get tired of seeing this team succeed. It seems as though there were more wings fans in the bottom bowl tonight than Ducks fans. As far as playoff atmospheres go the Ducks fight have the worst in the league. Hard to be dominate at home without loud fans keeping the team going. Cant wait to see Chicago have a tougher series in the second round. Ill be cheering for the wings all the way! Congrats Guys!! Go wings Go!
Kick us when we're down why don't you? Hard to advance in the playoffs without qualifying for them.

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05-13-2013, 01:38 AM
  #134
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobby Ryan Getzlaf View Post
I'm simply pointing out that nothing changed from the regular season. There was no regression, no luck running out. Maybe it would've happened next round, but it didn't happen this round.

And I don't doubt that you thought it was rational. And explain away, because as someone who watched every second of this series, I can guarantee the logic behind your prediction doesn't mesh with what actually happened.
It sort of was. They were 3-4 in this series after going 5-4-1 to end the season. With that kind of pace continued throughout a whole other half of a season, Anaheim might have been the 7, and Detroit the 2 (or 4, since Chicago wasn't going anywhere).

It's not a Ducks thing either. We're going to have the same talk with the people who think Randy Carlyle was a genius this year.

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05-13-2013, 01:41 AM
  #135
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Did somebody step on a Duck(s) ? Yep.

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05-13-2013, 01:42 AM
  #136
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Originally Posted by xxgt465xx View Post
Quincey dove. Your red-tinted glasses are showing.
The commentators from every station that showed the game disagreed with you.

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05-13-2013, 01:43 AM
  #137
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Originally Posted by Bobby Ryan Getzlaf View Post
For a team that won the territorial battle at even strength, they didn't do much with it. If Toronto loses tomorrow, Detroit's the only team to have a negative goal differential at 5 on 5 and advance, and if the Rangers also lose, the only team to have a negative goal differential overall and advance.
The Ducks had a negative goal differential in the 2007 series against Detroit. It was very similar to this one, in that there was a single blowout game (5-0 Wings) amongst a set of very close games.

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05-13-2013, 01:44 AM
  #138
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobby Ryan Getzlaf View Post
LA has low shooting percentages because they take a lot of low percentage shots. They fire it from everywhere and hope for the best. Nothing wrong with that strategy, it's a strategy that won them a cup, but it's just that, a strategy. Guys who believe strongly in Fenwick can cherry-pick cases like the Kings winning and Ducks losing out, and in doing so they ignore every other case, like the teams ahead of the Kings last year in Fenwick bowing out of the playoffs early, or other "unsustainable" teams doing just fine.

Fenwick works in some cases because, typically, the logic is solid. But it doesn't account for a team like the Ducks who strategically allow teams to put more pucks towards their net. Stats like Fenwick and Corsi don't work without context, and it's something you guys need to realize.
You strategically allow teams to take more shots? Didn't you just say you out-shot the Red Wings during the series? Was being -42 Corsi in Game 4 while going +7 with Damien Brunner on the ice part of the plan?

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05-13-2013, 01:45 AM
  #139
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Everyone claiming Ducks big players "didn't show up" while no one is giving any credit to the fact that the Wings are a system built on their top defensive forwards.

The Wings top lines simply outplayed the Ducks top lines, and matched up against them better.

It sounds an awful lot like people are using it as an excuse and yet giving no credit to the the Wings for completely shutting down Perry and Co.

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05-13-2013, 01:47 AM
  #140
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GKJ View Post
It sort of was. They were 3-4 in this series after going 5-4-1 to end the season. With that kind of pace continued throughout a whole other half of a season, Anaheim might have been the 7, and Detroit the 2 (or 4, since Chicago wasn't going anywhere).

It's not a Ducks thing either. We're going to have the same talk with the people who think Randy Carlyle was a genius this year.
I'm still waiting to hear how the Ducks regressed to the mean this series. Tell me how so many average guys stopped playing over their head, and they finally paid the price on the scoresheet for allowing so many shots towards their net. Oh yeah, you can't.

If anything about this series was unsustainable, it's their top two shot leaders, the only two guys with over 20, combining for 0 goals.

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05-13-2013, 01:50 AM
  #141
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Perry has now had 2 mediocre seasons in a row after his 50 goal season and this no show doesnt look good.

It will be an interesting offseason in Anaheim. They really need help on the blueline. They have Fowler and Beauchemin but Souray and Lydman are old. Even Beauchemin is getting up there in age and he had a career year. Plus they still have Bryan Allen under contract for 2 more years at 3.5M. Also Selanne and Koivu retiring would be a problem. The Ducks have some promising young forwards but I dont think theyre ready for 2nd line minutes.

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05-13-2013, 01:50 AM
  #142
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Congrats to Red Wings and their fans. No excuses, better team won.

Perry, Ryan and Selanne underachieved. I'm glad that Etem and Bonino stepped up, gives hope for next season.

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05-13-2013, 01:51 AM
  #143
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Originally Posted by GKJ View Post
You strategically allow teams to take more shots? Didn't you just say you out-shot the Red Wings during the series? Was being -42 Corsi in Game 4 while going +7 with Damien Brunner on the ice part of the plan?
They did out-shoot the Wings during the series. That's because they allow teams to shoot from the perimeter and get in the shooting lanes. It's not a coincidence Detroit missed so many shots, every team seems to miss a ton of shots against the Ducks. That's because they're great at disrupting the shooting lanes. Look at their Corsi breakdown from the regular season, didn't you find it odd they were one of the teams in blocked shots and missed shots against, yet were one of the better teams in terms of not allowing shots on goal? That's not luck, that's strategy.

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05-13-2013, 01:51 AM
  #144
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobby Ryan Getzlaf View Post
No team in the league is better at keeping shots away from their net. It's no coincidence Detroit had more missed shots than anyone and the Ducks were one of the top blocking teams, it's what the Ducks do.
If you block more shots, you're giving up more shot attempts, which means you're giving up puck possession. It's going to be hard to score goals without the puck.

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05-13-2013, 01:53 AM
  #145
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It was an excellent series. very exciting to watch. Detroit won't be fading away like so many have predicted and hoped for.

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05-13-2013, 01:53 AM
  #146
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Originally Posted by Bobby Ryan Getzlaf View Post
I'm simply pointing out that nothing changed from the regular season. There was no regression, no luck running out. Maybe it would've happened next round, but it didn't happen this round.
You're wrong - there was regression.

Compare the Ducks numbers over the 1st half of the season to those from the second half of the season. Their goal ratio plummeted.

Quote:
And I don't doubt that you thought it was rational. And explain away, because as someone who watched every second of this series, I can guarantee the logic behind your prediction doesn't mesh with what actually happened.
Before the playoffs started, I applied a Bayesian correction to each team statistic that contributes to goal differential. I then used the resulting data to generate theoretical win probabilities for each first round series.

The numbers suggested that Detroit had a 59% chance of winning the series. As the oddsmakers were offering a 2.3 payout on Detroit, which implied that Detroit had only 40% chance of winning the series, betting on Detroit to win was an easy decision.

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05-13-2013, 01:53 AM
  #147
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Originally Posted by Crymson View Post
The Ducks had a negative goal differential in the 2007 series against Detroit. It was very similar to this one, in that there was a single blowout game (5-0 Wings) amongst a set of very close games.
Indeed it is. I'm not trying to take anything away from the Wings, they were great, just pointing out the Ducks weren't some fluke team in the regular season that got their ***** handed to them.

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Red Line View Post
Everyone claiming Ducks big players "didn't show up" while no one is giving any credit to the fact that the Wings are a system built on their top defensive forwards.

The Wings top lines simply outplayed the Ducks top lines, and matched up against them better.

It sounds an awful lot like people are using it as an excuse and yet giving no credit to the the Wings for completely shutting down Perry and Co.
The Wings do deserve credit, they did a great job. I am, though, disgusted with the effort levels of some, which obviously the Wings don't really affect. They did a great job limiting them, but I definitely wish they would've tried a lot harder.

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05-13-2013, 01:57 AM
  #148
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobby Ryan Getzlaf View Post
They did out-shoot the Wings during the series. That's because they allow teams to shoot from the perimeter and get in the shooting lanes. It's not a coincidence Detroit missed so many shots, every team seems to miss a ton of shots against the Ducks. That's because they're great at disrupting the shooting lanes. Look at their Corsi breakdown from the regular season, didn't you find it odd they were one of the teams in blocked shots and missed shots against, yet were one of the better teams in terms of not allowing shots on goal? That's not luck, that's strategy.
If so, that's a really bad strategy. It might show up in the Corsi breakdown, but as has been noted Score-Adjusted Fenwick is a better predictor of success. You're less likely to win if you're deliberately decreasing your odds of scoring by giving up the puck and allowing scoring chances in these coin-flip OT games.

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05-13-2013, 01:57 AM
  #149
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I'm as shocked as anybody else right now. I hadn't seen as much of the Ducks this RS besides our games together, so I really had no idea what could go down. It was some great times watching these 7 games, great hockey players on each side. I tell ya as interesting as this series was I will never forget.

One of the best things about playoffs is getting to become more familiar with the top teams. I have a much greater appreciation for the Ducks lineup. Winnick, Cogliano, Lovejoy, Fowler, Etem, are certain names we heard A LOT this series. I like the vibe of this team am honestly surprised by the loss.

The Wings have proven that by tradition, experience, faith, hard work alone they could possibly rebuild a team on the fly and succeed into the 2nd round. To come out on top of a powerhouse like Anaheim is a huge accomplishment to a lot of our fans right now.

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05-13-2013, 01:57 AM
  #150
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobby Ryan Getzlaf View Post
That's because they're great at disrupting the shooting lanes. Look at their Corsi breakdown from the regular season, didn't you find it odd they were one of the teams in blocked shots and missed shots against, yet were one of the better teams in terms of not allowing shots on goal? That's not luck, that's strategy.
So the ducks strategy is to let the other team shoot a lot and *hope* that they miss the net or shoot at defencemen? Worst strategy ever, not surprised it didn't work

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