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What gives us the best chance next year in net?

View Poll Results: Which goaltender option is best?
Pavelec and Montoya 19 27.14%
Pavelec and Emery/Scrivens 34 48.57%
2 of Emery/Scrivens/Bernier/Someone else 17 24.29%
Voters: 70. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
05-20-2013, 12:42 PM
  #151
Crazed Fan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Resurrection View Post
You don't have an opinion that Pavelec is good: you have an emotional and baseless hope that he is. No offense.
No. I based it solely on watching him play. While we're all watching the same thing I see the positives in his play while others might want to focus on the negative. Sure the stats show he is average right now. I dont think his play shows that he is uncapable of leading this team into the post season and beyond. There is a lot of hockey still to be played and in the end you all may be right. The truth is, none of you know what the future holds. There are too many intangibles with hockey that I just dont think stats are the end all. That does not mean they dont serve a purpose, they do. Really all they do is reflect on the past, and hockey will always be about the present.
Im sure nobody ever would have thought Leighton could have led the Flyers to the finals based on his previous stats, but hockey is filled with moments like these. Player chemistry, team morale, coaching, travel, injury, etc... there are a lot of variables.
The nature of this thread was to state which goaltenders give the Jets the best chances. At the moment I do think that going with a tandem with Pavelec as the #1 gives the Jets a great chance to get into the post season. I simply have not seen anything so egregious in his play to think we need to get him out and someone else in.

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05-20-2013, 01:02 PM
  #152
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Originally Posted by truck View Post
The Jets were 15th in scoring. The team that was 9th in scoring scored 5 more goals than the Jets. Would 5 more goals (1 goal every 10 games) be enough to get the Jets in the playoffs? Would scoring be an issue if they missed the playoffs while being 9th in scoring? How many goals would the Jets have to score before scoring wasn't an issue? Do 22 of 30 NHL teams have an issue scoring goals?
here are some stats on goalscoring this past season.

Ladd, Little, Wheeler, Kane = 61 goals
All other Jets forwards = 35 goals

Just because those 4 and the Defense (28 goals) brought the number up does not mean there isnt room for improvement on lines 2-4. I understand at least one of those lines will be a defensive forward line, but that still leaves another 2 lines that i think need to contribute more offensively. This is why I think they should focus more on this area than Pavelec who really isnt a problem at all.

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05-20-2013, 01:22 PM
  #153
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crazed Fan View Post
here are some stats on goalscoring this past season.

Ladd, Little, Wheeler, Kane = 61 goals
All other Jets forwards = 35 goals

Just because those 4 and the Defense (28 goals) brought the number up does not mean there isnt room for improvement on lines 2-4. I understand at least one of those lines will be a defensive forward line, but that still leaves another 2 lines that i think need to contribute more offensively. This is why I think they should focus more on this area than Pavelec who really isnt a problem at all.
It wouldn't matter if Kane scored 99% of the goals the rest of the team scored 1% (at least not in this goaltending discussion). The fact is the Jets were average as a total team in getting pucks in the net. They were well below average in stopping pucks from going in the net. Those are the results. The Jets lack of secondary scoring is irrelevant to the lack of stopping pucks.

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05-20-2013, 01:41 PM
  #154
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
We can have any opinion and I'm not meaning to bash you at all (at least I hope I'm not doing that). We can agree to disagree and hold our own opinions about Pavelec's current abilities and worth (PS I agree and still think he has the chance and ability to be above average, but I'm more skeptical in thinking the window is closing quickly and he may not get there).

Although we can have an opinion, an opinion can be wrong and false... especially when discussing facts of what occurred.

The fact is the Jets were above league average in all things overall (including scoring goals), with the only exception for how pucks the goalies stopped relative to how many they let in, and that's two years in a row.
That can't be wrong opinion as that is what happened.

In the end this is the only area the Jets are below average, and therefore would be the "easiest" (ignoring variables like contracts, what other GMs are looking, what's available, etc.) to improve the team in being above average (ie: get in the playoffs).

Also, in the end stats are the results in number form. If it doesn't affect the stats than it isn't affecting the chance to win very much.
Im glad you put easiest in quotes. So if we take into account that teams likely wont be trading Lundqvist, Rinne, Quick, etc. We would possibly be trading average goalie for average goalie. So based on our options, I am going to support our guy and hope Chevy focuses on other areas instead.
Yup, Pavelec had some bad games this year and last year. Those games will destroy your stats. He also had a lot of very good games and has been a game changer.

I get skeptical when teams start tweaking too much. Holmgren followed the stats to Bryzgalov and well, you saw what happened. (lost in the woods) Now they are stuck. But who knows maybe that gets better with time.
If it aint broke dont fix it. And i just dont think Pavs is anywhere near broken. I think he is the perfect fit for right now. and if the future provides an opportunity to trade up and Pavelec isnt "the guy" then perhaps thats what we do. I dont think that moment is now though. Until then, Pavs is my Jets goalie to cheer for.
I agree opinions can be wrong or false but from my understanding of message boards its all opinion.


Last edited by Crazed Fan: 05-20-2013 at 02:05 PM.
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Old
05-20-2013, 02:02 PM
  #155
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KCjetsfan View Post
It wouldn't matter if Kane scored 99% of the goals the rest of the team scored 1% (at least not in this goaltending discussion). The fact is the Jets were average as a total team in getting pucks in the net. They were well below average in stopping pucks from going in the net. Those are the results. The Jets lack of secondary scoring is irrelevant to the lack of stopping pucks.
The only stat any of the players care about are wins. I do think Pavelecs past two seasons of 21-20-3 / 29-28-9 are something to build on. If Pavelec has had a bad game, the rest of the players need to step it up. If we have a foundation that has Antropov, Miettenen, Tangradi, Jokinen, Gagnon, Wellwood, Thorburn and even Burmistrov thats simply not going to cut it.

So what should the Jets do? Trade Pavelec? For who? And Im guessing we should just keep lines 2-4 the way they are because they are 15th in scoring so, we're good.
Pavelec is a leader on this team. Noel and the players, and many fans (or just me) all believe in him and his abilities.

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05-20-2013, 02:53 PM
  #156
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crazed Fan View Post
Im glad you put easiest in quotes. So if we take into account that teams likely wont be trading Lundqvist, Rinne, Quick, etc. We would possibly be trading average goalie for average goalie. So based on our options, I am going to support our guy and hope Chevy focuses on other areas instead.
Yup, Pavelec had some bad games this year and last year. Those games will destroy your stats. He also had a lot of very good games and has been a game changer.

I get skeptical when teams start tweaking too much. Holmgren followed the stats to Bryzgalov and well, you saw what happened. (lost in the woods) Now they are stuck. But who knows maybe that gets better with time.
If it aint broke dont fix it. And i just dont think Pavs is anywhere near broken. I think he is the perfect fit for right now. and if the future provides an opportunity to trade up and Pavelec isnt "the guy" then perhaps thats what we do. I dont think that moment is now though. Until then, Pavs is my Jets goalie to cheer for.
I agree opinions can be wrong or false but from my understanding of message boards its all opinion.
I agree and disagree.
I agree there are more variables in getting a good goalie than just going to the super market.
The things I disagree are the problem...
1) Pavelec has yet to be average (although 2010-11 he was quite close but looking at sample size and removing PK shows he still wasn't).
2) All evidence is Pavelec is broke as he isn't above average. As a game changer he only saved one more game than a replacement goaltender per GVT; he only kept the Jets "in the game" by saving above average amount of shots or having less than 3 GA in 44% of games, which is less than all starting goaltenders in the league except 3.
3) There are ways to determine whether statistics are inflated one way or the other and I've already shown this in this thread (mostly you need larger sample (3,000-5,000 shots against) and avoid PK as it fluctuates year to year and is more affected by team affects and luck than ES SV%. Stats never lie; how you take your sample size and context is what can cause things to be misinterpreted...
4) Can have all the opinions of the world. Some still opine that the world is flat, cameras take part of your soul and the holocaust never happened. There is most likely message boards for that, but doesn't mean one isn't right or wrong. You use facts and evidence to discern that. Since this is a hockey message we talk about hockey and try to discuss opinions to enjoy hockey and to better improve our understanding of the game, and thus what is right and wrong.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Crazed Fan View Post
The only stat any of the players care about are wins. I do think Pavelecs past two seasons of 21-20-3 / 29-28-9 are something to build on. If Pavelec has had a bad game, the rest of the players need to step it up. If we have a foundation that has Antropov, Miettenen, Tangradi, Jokinen, Gagnon, Wellwood, Thorburn and even Burmistrov thats simply not going to cut it.

So what should the Jets do? Trade Pavelec? For who? And Im guessing we should just keep lines 2-4 the way they are because they are 15th in scoring so, we're good.
Pavelec is a leader on this team. Noel and the players, and many fans (or just me) all believe in him and his abilities.
But what creates wins? Outscoring the other team.
How do you outscore? Score more and let them score less.
How do you do that? Create more scoring chances for yourself, decrease their scoring chances, and have your goalie stop as many of those scoring chances as possible.

The Jets were only below average in the last thing (have your goalie stop as many of those scoring chances as possible).

Our team wasn't perfect, but SV% was still the only thing below average.
No one is saying the forwards can't be improved or shouldn't be improved. I believe every single person who has commented against Pavelec are also people hoping for another top6 piece, preferably a 2nd line RW. They are just pointing out the truth, that goaltending was the weakest link still in the Jets chain.

5 teams made the playoffs with less goals for than the Jets... 5 teams didn't make the playoffs with more goals for than the Jets.
1 team made the playoffs with worse ES SV%, the NYI who had the same amount of wins as the Jets but more loser OT points, were 16th place and had a better PK SV% which could be as much luck as talent... both the PK SV% and getting in over the Jets and other bubble teams...

That's the way the league is: average or better SV% (ie: goaltending) tends to be a larger difference maker than goals for. Unfortunately that's the one where Jets were (far) below average.

What to do was the topic of this thread originally. Most agree that Pavelec has good size and raw athleticism. His problems though are the same ones he's had since his AHL days. From Hockey's Future:
Quote:
On the downside, Pavelec needs to keep his conditioning in check and remain consistent. He allows a good number of goals through his five-hole and needs to play better in position when making the saves. He could still improve his glove hand and often he seems to have trouble on high shots. His stickhandling ability is rather average and some of his moves can lead to risky plays. He also tends to play too deep in the net, thus being more vulnerable to shots than dekes.
His positioning, conditioning, high glove, and stickhandling are still problems he still has and commented on here all the time. It's this combo of great raw athleticism and poor positioning that makes those highlight saves, and most likely influences emotions of some fans.

The good thing is that with work, dedication and coaching those things are improvable. That's why many are discussing here that having a 1B to push him is probably the best decision to make. In many ways we're pretty much with Pavelec for better or worse due to paying him big money with term, but luckily it's not quite a DiPietro contract.

Another thing I was wondering was maybe the possibility of getting a new goaltending coach or perhaps an additional coach. More teams have two coaches than one, and since we're still seeing a lot of the major mistakes he was making in the AHL, plus he was a goalie that grew up with very little coaching, maybe we need someone new to guide him...


Last edited by garret9: 05-20-2013 at 03:03 PM.
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05-20-2013, 03:31 PM
  #157
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I read a while back that Pavi was supposedly resistant to coaching.

No idea if that is still the case.

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05-20-2013, 03:37 PM
  #158
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I thought Pavs was markedly better on both his high glove and breakaways by the end of the season.

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05-20-2013, 03:39 PM
  #159
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Reading through the last page or so has been like discussing something with my wife... an exercise in frustration leading to a migraine. Off to do something else.

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05-20-2013, 04:20 PM
  #160
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Originally Posted by broinwhyteridge View Post
Reading through the last page or so has been like discussing something with my wife... an exercise in frustration leading to a migraine. Off to do something else.
I may have envisioned Peg Bundy when I read this

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05-21-2013, 02:24 PM
  #161
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I think there is three seperate views on Ondrej.

1) Pavelec is a good goaltender. The stats are misleading because the Jets give up a lot more quality chances, are a mess defensively, and because of Ondrej we at least have a shot to win on most nights.

I dont even have the time of day for this position anymore. It's been so throughoughly statistically debunked taking this position is akin to believing in a flying spaghetti monster.

The two arguments of merit are:

2) Pavelec is a bad or mediocre goaltender who has had 4 seasons to show us something. He's going to be 26 this season and has yet to be a consistent #1 goaltender.
This has been backed by stats and a logical argument can be made for this with comparisons to other goaltenders and how their save % doesn't differ much from year to year aside from small sample sized anomolies.

3) Pavelec is smoothing out his game and will become consistent, and a good NHL goaltender. He's been average and getting better. His flashes of brilliance are a preview.,
While I don't personally align with this at least it has no way of being disproven. I can't prove to you that Pavelec won't get better. We all hope he does.

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05-21-2013, 03:24 PM
  #162
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Resurrection View Post
It's been so throughoughly statistically debunked taking this position is akin to believing in a flying spaghetti monster.
But can you statistically prove that the flying spaghetti monster doesn't exist? No, no you can't. And the two aren't necessarily mutually exclusive either.

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05-21-2013, 06:08 PM
  #163
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*Hitch Slap*

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