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CIS Hockey Funding (over/under table)

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Old
05-21-2013, 01:50 PM
  #26
rethinking
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I really don't think you can dismiss the hook of having the opportunity to win championships especially in the case of UNB.

I honestly believe that players are attracted to the AUS league because of its recognized overall level of competition. Junior players have a great opportunity to develop and improve their game because of it. I also believe that young players coming out of Junior do want to play in front of larger crowds and to be in places where you are recognized as a varsity hockey player.

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05-21-2013, 04:40 PM
  #27
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I've heard that (all else being equal) the word among WHLers is that after junior if they want to get a quality education while still playing hockey, they'll stay out West. If, however, they want to play the most competitive level of university hockey while still getting an education, they come East to the AUS.

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05-21-2013, 06:03 PM
  #28
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Originally Posted by MiamiHockey View Post
But, please, enough with claiming that the vast recruiting success in the AUS has to do with the charm of the coaching staff, exposure to scouts, or the opportunity to win championships. Those arguments don't hold up.
Well, you'd be wrong. I've interviewed countless AUS players for radio or TV, or been involved in post-game scrums, and I can't tell you how many players "from away" who say/said that they came East because of the competitive level of the hockey, and the opportunity to play for a championship. It's a big deal.

You're entitled to your own opinion, but not your own facts.

Btw, today Chris Bruton, a Calgary native who played for Spokane in the WHL and came East and was captain of the Acadia Axemen, signed a 1 year NHL/AHL contract with the New York Islanders.


Last edited by FreddtFoyle: 05-21-2013 at 06:06 PM. Reason: Bruton
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05-21-2013, 08:28 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by SuperSquirrel View Post
I've heard that (all else being equal) the word among WHLers is that after junior if they want to get a quality education while still playing hockey, they'll stay out West. If, however, they want to play the most competitive level of university hockey while still getting an education, they come East to the AUS.
so are u saying an education is an education but the hockey is not hockey out west SS?
we got to get alberta to pick up its socks here, 4 out of 7 by UNB has got the entire AUS thinking there all good??

the kids are graduating out here! did bruton? did trembley? I honestly dont know but hope for their sake they did!!

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05-21-2013, 10:55 PM
  #30
Hollywood3
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The factors that lead to school selection vary from player to player.

Course selection? The bigger schools offer almost every degree whilst the smaller ones don't. Some of your more eccentric degrees are only on offer at a few places.

Admission standards? Those vary greatly from one faculty to another at the same school. I had two degrees from Manitoba and in both of those we had people go to Western Ontario because they couldn't get in at Manitoba.

Location? Most would rather be close to home, others want a degree where they intend to work (which is sometimes the same place).

Winning? The winning programs all have a recruiting edge. I do not see this working in favour of one conference over another. FWIW, I did not see the recent U-Cup hosts do any better with their recruiting classes than in their non-host years.

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05-22-2013, 06:45 AM
  #31
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Originally Posted by mikeandI View Post
so are u saying an education is an education but the hockey is not hockey out west SS?
we got to get alberta to pick up its socks here, 4 out of 7 by UNB has got the entire AUS thinking there all good??

the kids are graduating out here! did bruton? did trembley? I honestly dont know but hope for their sake they did!!
No... sorry if I wasn't clear.

What I'm saying is that WHLers (who are destined to play university hockey) view the level of education better in the West than in the East but think the opposite when it comes to the level of hockey. They think the overall level of hockey is better in the East as compared to the West.

Keep in mind, I'm not saying I agree or disagree with this statement... this is only what I've been told.

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05-22-2013, 08:05 AM
  #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hollywood3 View Post
The factors that lead to school selection vary from player to player.

Course selection? The bigger schools offer almost every degree whilst the smaller ones don't. Some of your more eccentric degrees are only on offer at a few places.

Admission standards? Those vary greatly from one faculty to another at the same school. I had two degrees from Manitoba and in both of those we had people go to Western Ontario because they couldn't get in at Manitoba.

Location? Most would rather be close to home, others want a degree where they intend to work (which is sometimes the same place).

Winning? The winning programs all have a recruiting edge. I do not see this working in favour of one conference over another. FWIW, I did not see the recent U-Cup hosts do any better with their recruiting classes than in their non-host years.
I think Hollywood is bang-on here, especially with the course selection point - new, highly specialized, or really established academic programs will always draw the specific people for whom they are tailored, and hockey players are no different. When Waterloo landed Chris Ray 6 years ago, it was in no small part because of UW's then-unique Enviro-Business program (which Ray finished at the top of his graduating class academically). SMU is another great example - yes they're in the AUS and have title aspirations every year, but they also have an internationally-recognized Commerce faculty - that includes 18 members of last year's team. I'd bet that it's as big a selling point as anything else for the Huskies.

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05-22-2013, 08:54 AM
  #33
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Originally Posted by FreddtFoyle View Post
Well, you'd be wrong. I've interviewed countless AUS players for radio or TV, or been involved in post-game scrums, and I can't tell you how many players "from away" who say/said that they came East because of the competitive level of the hockey, and the opportunity to play for a championship. It's a big deal.

You're entitled to your own opinion, but not your own facts.

Btw, today Chris Bruton, a Calgary native who played for Spokane in the WHL and came East and was captain of the Acadia Axemen, signed a 1 year NHL/AHL contract with the New York Islanders.
Last I checked, the AUS only sends 1 team to the CIS championship (other than the odd years where it is hosting or gets the "extra" slot). So, outside of UNB, a recruit who claims to go to the AUS for the chance to win a championship needs to take remedial math.

In fact, as I have argued in the past, a player desiring to win championships should go to Alberta or Western (UQTR or McGill if they are francophone), as those teams have a much greater likelihood of being in the University Cup than any AUS team other than UNB.

So, perhaps I am wrong, and it is the charm of the AUS coaches that matters the most.

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05-22-2013, 12:36 PM
  #34
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Here's a story on a Nipissing recruit from the Selkirk Steelers (MJHL):

http://www.baytoday.ca/content/sport...ls.asp?c=52138

Quote:
The Nipissing Lakers have bolstered their depleted blueline with the addition of Brendan Mitchell.

Mitchell, a 6-foot, 185-pound defenceman from Stonewall, Manitoba, played last season with the Selkirk Steelers in the Manitoba Junior Hockey League (MJHL), collecting 13 points and 52 penalty minutes in 60 games as the team captain.

He played four seasons in the MJHL, a total of 226 games, netting 50 points and 224 penalty minutes.

Mitchell is enrolling in a Bachelor of Arts degree program, with the goal of entering Nipissing’s Criminal Justice program.

“I'm very excited to be coming to Nipissing,” said Mitchell in a Nipissing University press release.

“It’s an excellent school with small classes and the Criminal Justice program really interests me. I’m looking forward to getting on the ice with the Lakers and helping the team reach their goals.”
This player could probably not have cracked the line-up of Alberta, Calgary, Saskatchewan, or Manitoba. If he did he would likely have needed a couple years of being a healthy scratch. Could he have found his course at MRU, Lethbridge or Regina? I don't know. Was the ACAC an option? Maybe.

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05-22-2013, 03:42 PM
  #35
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Originally Posted by MiamiHockey View Post
Last I checked, the AUS only sends 1 team to the CIS championship (other than the odd years where it is hosting or gets the "extra" slot). So, outside of UNB, a recruit who claims to go to the AUS for the chance to win a championship needs to take remedial math.

In fact, as I have argued in the past, a player desiring to win championships should go to Alberta or Western (UQTR or McGill if they are francophone), as those teams have a much greater likelihood of being in the University Cup than any AUS team other than UNB.

So, perhaps I am wrong, and it is the charm of the AUS coaches that matters the most.
Remedial math, huh? Maybe you can calculate these odds for me then. In the last ten University Cups, the OUA has won once. Once. McGill's first ever UCup last year. In that same period Canada West won three times (Alberta) and the AUS six times (UNB x 4, SMU and StFX). The OUA has more teams than the AUS and Canada West combined, so doesn't that make it look even worse?

It's not just about getting to the University Cup - it's about having enough strong competition in your conference schedule and playoffs so that when you arrive at the UCup you've been seasoned enough to WIN. So if I was a potential recruit who really wanted to WIN a championship ring, a top AUS team or Alberta certainly looks like it would give me the best probability to accomplish that. But math isn't my best strength.

But I will agree, if you just want to GET to the University Cup, well then since the OUA is guaranteed two spots each time and every third year gets the wildcard, then yes, choosing one of the top OUA teams will probably do that for you.

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05-22-2013, 04:21 PM
  #36
MiamiHockey
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Originally Posted by FreddtFoyle View Post
In the last ten University Cups, the OUA has won once. Once. McGill's first ever UCup last year.
You have a very selective time frame. In the last 13 Cups, the OUA has won 4. In the last 2, the OUA has won 50%.

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Originally Posted by FreddtFoyle View Post
The OUA has more teams than the AUS and Canada West combined, so doesn't that make it look even worse?
The OUA sends two teams each year. It also has UOIT, RMC, Queen's, Ryerson, and Toronto, which are very unlikely to send a team, so in essence the odds are better.

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Originally Posted by FreddtFoyle View Post
But I will agree, if you just want to GET to the University Cup, well then since the OUA is guaranteed two spots each time and every third year gets the wildcard, then yes, choosing one of the top OUA teams will probably do that for you.
Last time I checked, getting to the University Cup is a pre-requisite for winning it.

So, your argument rests on UNB's recent great success. Like I said before, The corollary to that is: if you're in the AUS, you have to get through UNB to have a chance to win.

Of course, as you astutely pointed out, players going to the AUS are more concerned about getting pro contracts and getting noticed than they are about their academics, so in one sense it's not surprising that they don't crunch the numbers either.

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05-22-2013, 05:11 PM
  #37
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Originally Posted by MiamiHockey View Post
You have a very selective time frame. In the last 13 Cups, the OUA has won 4. In the last 2, the OUA has won 50%.
Very selective? The last 10 years is a reasonable, representative recent sample for comparison purposes (and goes back to when current recruits would have been 10 or 11 and might be influenced?). But I guess you have to be cute about picking the unusual number of 13 years because it makes the OUA look better? 2 years is very selective. 13 is very selective. But 10? Please.

Fine, so let's look at a wider sample then. Let's look at the University Cup since it went to the 6-team format in 1998:

5 Canada West (Alberta) wins.
4 OUA wins (UQTR x 2, Western, McGill) ... but only once in the last 10 years.
7 AUS wins (UNB x 5, StFX, SMU).

But if you're a unilingual Anglophone, then since 1998 it looks more like:

5 CanWest wins
2 OUA wins (remove the two UQTR wins since you wouldn't be able to study there ...)
7 AUS wins

Where are the best odds to WIN then?

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05-22-2013, 05:22 PM
  #38
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Originally Posted by MiamiHockey View Post
Of course, as you astutely pointed out, players going to the AUS are more concerned about getting pro contracts and getting noticed than they are about their academics, so in one sense it's not surprising that they don't crunch the numbers either.
Now you're just making up stuff to mischaracterize what I've said to try to prop up your thesis. I never stated that AUS players were more concerned with post-CIS pro contracts than academics; these are not mutually exclusive goals. Just look at the number of Academic All-Canadians in the AUS (and the other conferences).

Student-athletes in the CIS have changed a lot since the 80's and 90's. Thanks to their guaranteed Major Junior education packages, and the renewed focus by the OHL, WHL and QMJHL that their players keep up their studies at least a minimal level while playing, these young men are much more focused on getting their education paid for, getting a desired degree (and not just whatever program they can scrape into) and then moving onto pro hockey. And where's one of the best places to accomplish both goals? Leaving home and going to the AUS.

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05-22-2013, 07:41 PM
  #39
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Originally Posted by FreddtFoyle View Post
Very selective?
Where are the best odds to WIN then?
10 is a round number. That's all it is. It is no more or less reasonable than any other number.

Incidentally, I said AUS other than UNB. UNB has a powerhouse program, so if you want a shot at a championship do you want to be in the same conference that they win routinely? The answer is no, because it severely limits your odds of getting to the University Cup. That's what I was saying. And, it is true.

And, incidentally, it was you who have highlighted exposure to NHL scouts as a reason to go to the AUS, and it was you who highlighted the recent pro contract signing by a guy who played one year at UNB. I was just reminding you of what you said.

I understand that CIS hockey has changed for the better in the last 20 years. It's a great thing. But, the CIS is still a weak organization with very poor oversight. I would like to believe that the AUS teams are all bastions of purity, but I've been around long enough to know that is not true.

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05-22-2013, 09:36 PM
  #40
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maybe you perceive the CIS as appearing to be weak because the purpose of a university is to provide post secondary education not to provide another track to pro hockey. I don't expect that hockey is any higher a priority than any other sport with university Chancellors nor should it be. It does however attract top athletes like any other sport and these student athletes can be good role models. For the most part it is seen as providing affordable entertainment for the student population and a generator of school spirit. Hockey has established it's own micro culture and sometimes people fail to see that it is only a small part of our social foundation. Ying and Yang, one day UNB will be a weak sister. They are just a minor pro team or QMJHL team away from being an also ran.

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05-22-2013, 09:42 PM
  #41
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Originally Posted by MiamiHockey View Post
10 is a round number. That's all it is. It is no more or less reasonable than any other number.

Incidentally, I said AUS other than UNB. UNB has a powerhouse program, so if you want a shot at a championship do you want to be in the same conference that they win routinely? The answer is no, because it severely limits your odds of getting to the University Cup. That's what I was saying. And, it is true.

And, incidentally, it was you who have highlighted exposure to NHL scouts as a reason to go to the AUS, and it was you who highlighted the recent pro contract signing by a guy who played one year at UNB. I was just reminding you of what you said.

I understand that CIS hockey has changed for the better in the last 20 years. It's a great thing. But, the CIS is still a weak organization with very poor oversight. I would like to believe that the AUS teams are all bastions of purity, but I've been around long enough to know that is not true.
Miami, are you even a fan of CIS hockey? Do you go to games? Or do you just sit in your chair and pontificate with your expert logic about why players chose teams they chose and go about smearing AUS teams about cheating without evidence.

I could say the night is dark and you would say it is light out ...

Ten years is more than just a round number. It is two complete turnovers (of maximum five years of eligibility) of a team's roster - a lifetime so to speak.

That player I mentioned? I said Bruton was a former captain of ACADIA. He played three (3) years with the Axemen. What's that have to do with anything I said about UNB?

I can count too. So how does two different AUS teams, other than UNB, winning the University Cup since 1998 make it worse odds than the the fact that only two anglophone OUA teams who have won the UCup in the same time frame? Again, I focus on the probability of WINNING the UCup - which is why the competitive guys play the game. For them, winning is everything.

But wait, you're apparently focused on GETTING to the University Cup. Fine. Yes, your odds as a player are probably better to play with one of the top OUA teams, as they tend to make repeat visits. If that's your goal, so be it.

But you know, you did somehow bring up something I can agree with. The CIS as an organization does not have the resources to "police" recruiting in all sports the way the NCAA does and can. So, yes, all sorts of shenanigans could be happening. But it doesn't mean they are, just because they could ... not matter what you apparently want to believe.

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05-22-2013, 10:18 PM
  #42
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Originally Posted by FreddtFoyle View Post
Miami, are you even a fan of CIS hockey? Do you go to games? Or do you just sit in your chair and pontificate with your expert logic about why players chose teams they chose and go about smearing AUS teams about cheating without evidence.
If only I had known that I could have gained expertise on recruiting by sitting in the stands watching CIS hockey, I wouldn't have spent so much time engaged in actively recruiting players to play CIS hockey. Silly me.

I live in the US now, so I can no longer be engaged with my program, but I have engaged in recruiting battles, and been on the winning and losing ends. I am most proud of the fact that two of my recruits have successfully completed their PhDs.

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That player I mentioned? I said Bruton was a former captain of ACADIA. He played three (3) years with the Axemen. What's that have to do with anything I said about UNB?
My mistake. I misread your post, but found it telling that you were focused on pro contracts.

But, I was not aware that the OUA differentiated between the francophone and anglophone teams. It certainly didn't when I was there. Does the AUS treat Moncton differently?

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So, yes, all sorts of shenanigans could be happening. But it doesn't mean they are, just because they could ... not matter what you apparently want to believe.
You're right. Pete Belliveau was relieved of his duties because he lacked charm.

I know that you are obsessed with facts, but I also know that people selectively choose the information they seek. Perhaps you need to have a recruit ask you for money and then choose a different school to believe that it happens.

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05-23-2013, 07:22 AM
  #43
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Wow. This thread seems to have taken on a life of it's own.

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05-23-2013, 09:08 AM
  #44
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Wow. This thread seems to have taken on a life of it's own.
No kidding. And it's such a stupid discussion it makes me want to pull my hair out whenever someone brings it up.

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05-23-2013, 09:43 AM
  #45
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Originally Posted by FreddtFoyle View Post
Fine, so let's look at a wider sample then. Let's look at the University Cup since it went to the 6-team format in 1998:

5 Canada West (Alberta) wins.
4 OUA wins (UQTR x 2, Western, McGill) ... but only once in the last 10 years.
7 AUS wins (UNB x 5, StFX, SMU).

Where are the best odds to WIN then?
For all of the AUS fans who wish to use this data as strong evidence in support of the hypothesis that the AUS is superior, I did an statistical analysis called a chi-square test, that examines whether a pattern of results is significantly different from chance.

In other words, if you put six balls into a container 16 different times, how likely is it that you would get the result above.

I weighted it (the OUA gets 2 teams per year, AUS one, CW one) plus I added in the host team (6 for AUS, 6 for CW, 4 for OUA) and the random extra team that each conference gets. You can do it yourself if you have Microsoft Excel ... the function is chisq.test.

The results indicate that the success rate of the AUS at the University Cup is not significantly different from chance.

Let me put this another way ...

If, instead of playing the University Cup, you simply put the 6 teams' names on lottery balls, and picked one out of a container, this outcome is as likely as any other.

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05-23-2013, 10:39 AM
  #46
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Lucky for us UNB fans, you don't learn about the Chi Squared test until 2nd/3rd year stats; so any recruit will look at the recent success of AUS, apply some common sense, and choose the AUS as the best chance to win....I bet they will feel some silly when they get to 2nd/3rd year, take a stats class, and realize that their decision to choose who they thought had the best chance of winning was not based on a rigorous statistically significant process....oh well.

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05-23-2013, 12:32 PM
  #47
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Originally Posted by Big Bad Jon View Post
Lucky for us UNB fans, you don't learn about the Chi Squared test until 2nd/3rd year stats; so any recruit will look at the recent success of AUS, apply some common sense, and choose the AUS as the best chance to win....I bet they will feel some silly when they get to 2nd/3rd year, take a stats class, and realize that their decision to choose who they thought had the best chance of winning was not based on a rigorous statistically significant process....oh well.
No disagreement here

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05-24-2013, 07:13 AM
  #48
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The only thing that I'd add to the conversation is that with UOIT, Nipissing and now Laurentian being recent or soon to be CIS teams that competition for spots has become slightly less. More spots ipen.
Also Laurentian will lessen the comp for Ottawa, Moncton, UQTR, McGill, Concordia. and others offering courses either in that "other" official language or "both" official languages. So there is no strangle hold as has been suggested or stereo-typed
Interesting that all expansion has come in the OUA.
If more schools enter....well there's only so many players on CHL bursaries

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05-24-2013, 08:33 AM
  #49
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Roster Cap & Math

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Originally Posted by Big Bad Jon View Post
Lucky for us UNB fans, you don't learn about the Chi Squared test until 2nd/3rd year stats; so any recruit will look at the recent success of AUS, apply some common sense, and choose the AUS as the best chance to win....I bet they will feel some silly when they get to 2nd/3rd year, take a stats class, and realize that their decision to choose who they thought had the best chance of winning was not based on a rigorous statistically significant process....oh well.
Incidentally, for UNB fans, statistical analysis is your friend when it comes to arguing against the roster cap.

Let's assume that the number of injuries that a team gets is simply due to bad luck (i.e., good teams do not suffer more or less injuries than bad teams).

So, a team can suffer 4 injuries and still ice a full team.

What you need to ask yourself is: what are the odds that a team suffers 5 or more injuries at a single time?

Anybody who's been around CIS hockey long enough knows that the odds of that are reasonably high. I'd have to calculate it, but let's assume for argument's sake that it's around a 50% chance that, come playoff time, a team suffers 5 or more injuries.

So, there is a 50% chance that, due to bad luck, one team receives a competitive advantage over another team.

In other words, reducing the roster size to 22 increases the role that luck plays, and thus decreases the role that team quality plays, in determining the winning team.

I don't personally care, or have a belief about, whether this rule was aimed at UNB - that's somebody else's argument.

But, if you believe that you have the best team in the league, you should be annoyed, and not because your prized recruits will necessarily go to the competition .... but because it reduces the role of team quality and increases the role of luck.

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05-25-2013, 12:35 PM
  #50
FreddtFoyle
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I don't think that we needed any kind of statistical analysis to tell us that the team that runs out of the most skilled players, and has fewer players to replace them with will be "unfairly" affected. But thanks for that.

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