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~Grandpabuzz 2012 NHL Draft 7 Round Ranking and Rating~

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05-29-2012, 12:34 PM
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Grandpabuzz
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~Grandpabuzz 2012 NHL Draft 7 Round Ranking and Rating~

Below are my potential-adjusted rankings for the 2012 NHL Draft with associated “maximum potential ratings” (the maximum rating that this player can be in the NHL, given their current age). Almost all of these players will ultimately fall a bit lower than the rating shown below, once/if they make it to the NHL and as they age.

These rankings and ratings are not based on the player’s skillset in terms of skating ability, speed, checking or personality, but are based on the outcome of those abilities in terms of goals, assists, PIM and near-to-all other numerical information about the player’s performance, position, body (age, height, weight), and team (how team performed, which league player is from). These variables are then put together in an algorithm which compares the prospect’s performance to a collection of NHL players who have played in that specific league earlier in their career. Each current NHL player has a value already assigned to them based on their performance in the NHL (which is an entirely different discussion but is based on advanced NHL statistics for those who are familiar with the subject). Outliers are removed before the data is run through a program similar to regression which then outputs a “max potential rating” to each prospect. Note that there are some prospects which play in leagues/schools (Mark Jankowski for example) that cannot be part of the system because there is not enough data to compare them to. However, for about 95% of the prospects out there, I was able to assign a value to them.

I know this list will be considered a joke and completely far fetched for everyone here, but again, these rankings/ratings are not meant to be a definitive number to determine where a player should be drafted. The intent is to corroborate existing empirical evidence scouts/others have of players with a basis of historical statistical comparison. I’ve been working on variations of this project for over the past five years and finally believe there is enough data to make initial estimates for these players/prospects. However, this is a fluid process and as more data becomes available (as new NHL players emerge every year) the numbers will be subject to change over time.

As a reference here are what I have a sample of current NHL players rated as:

Player Rating
Sidney Crosby: 80
Bobby Ryan: 69
Teemu Selanne: 64
Niklas Hagman: 59
Andrew Cogliano: 55
  
Lubomir Visnovsky: 62
Toni Lydman: 58
Cam Fowler: 53
  
Jonas Hiller: 61
Dan Ellis: 54

Again, I will hopefully get a new topic out there soon about what went into making those ratings above. As a guiding point a score of 62 or above is first line/pair talent, 58-62 is second line/pair talent, 54-58 is third line/pair talent, and below are fringe/fourth line players.

Notable Players who did not have enough supporting data to be rated and are not on this list:

Thomas Spelling, Mark Jankowski, Mackenzie Maceachern, Drake Caggiula, Devin Shore, Daniel O'Regan, Brian Hart, Ben Hutton, James Haas, Mackenzie Weegar, Patrik Luza, Travis Jeke


Notable Players who did not have a high enough rating to warrant being listed

Martin Frk, Slater Koekkoek, Adam Pelech, Matej Beran, Zachary Stepan, Valeri Vasiliev, Alex Gudbranson




PickPlayerPositionRating
1 Mikhail Grigorenko F 68.7
2 Esa Lindell D 66.4
3 Nail Yakupov F 66.4
4 Alex Galchenyuk F 65.9
5 Joonas Korpisalo G 64.3
6 Kevin Roy F 63.2
7 Tim Bozon F 63.1
8 Ryan Murray D 63.0
9 Jordan Schmaltz D 62.6
10 Olli Maatta D 62.2
11 Phillip Giuseppe F 62.1
12 Cody Ceci D 62.0
13 Ryan Culkin D 61.8
14 Niklas Treutle G 61.7
15 Shayne Gostisbehere D 61.5
16 Coda Gordon F 61.2
17 Sean Maguire G 60.6
18 Radek Faksa F 59.5
19 Connor Brown F 59.5
20 Morgan Rielly D 59.5
21 Zemgus Girgensons F 59.5
22 Jesse Graham D 59.3
23 Teuvo Teravainen F 59.2
24 Brendan Leipsic F 59.2
25 Tomas Hertl F 59.1
26 Brendan Gaunce F 59.1
27 Justin Hache D 58.8
28 Travis Brown D 58.7
29 Alex Kile F 58.3
30 Mathew Dumba D 58.2
Round 2  
31 Mathias Niederberger G 57.9
32 Ville Pokka D 57.8
33 Jarrod Maidens F 57.8
34 Etienne Marcoux G 57.6
35 Nick Ebert D 57.5
36 Troy Bourke F 57.4
37 Andrei Vasilevski G 57.4
38 Henrik Samuelsson F 57.3
39 Tanner Pearson F 57.3
40 Daniil Zharkov F 57.3
41 Damon Severson D 57.2
42 Dylan Blujus D 57.2
43 Robert Baillargeon F 57.1
44 Michael Houser G 57.1
45 Henri Ikonen F 57.0
46 Logan Nelson F 57.0
47 Kristoff Kontos F 57.0
48 Chris Marchese F 57.0
49 Mike Winther F 56.9
50 Jujhar Khaira F 56.9
51 Scott Laughton F 56.8
52 Matia Marcantuoni F 56.7
53 Anton Zlobin F 56.7
54 Filip Forsberg F 56.6
55 Griffin Reinhart D 56.6
56 Samuel Kurker F 56.5
57 Mathew Campagna F 56.5
58 Zakhar Arzamastsev D 56.5
59 Justin Kloos F 56.4
60 Tanner Richard F 56.4
Round 3  
61 Francois Brassard G 56.3
62 Brady Vail F 56.2
63 Andreas Athanasiou F 56.2
64 Scott Kosmachuk F 56.2
65 Artur Gavrus F 56.2
66 Luke Cairns F 56.1
67 Grant Besse F 56.1
68 Morgan Zulinick F 56.0
69 Malcolm Subban G 56.0
70 Taylor Leier F 55.9
71 Sebastian Collberg F 55.8
72 Nathan Walker F 55.8
73 Ben Johnson F 55.8
74 Calle Andersson D 55.8
75 Nikita Gusev F 55.7
76 Brandon Whitney G 55.7
77 Alex Kerfoot F 55.7
78 Pontus Aberg F 55.7
79 Jon Gillies G 55.7
80 Chandler Stephenson F 55.6
81 Colton Sissons F 55.6
82 Matthew Finn D 55.5
83 Gemel Smith F 55.4
84 Dane Fox F 55.4
85 Ryan Olsen F 55.4
86 Michael Matheson D 55.3
87 Brady Brassart F 55.3
88 Matej Machovsky G 55.2
89 Vincent Hinostroza F 55.2
90 Matthew Morris G 55.1
Round 4  
91 Chris Tierney F 55.1
92 Michael Clarke F 55.1
93 Topi Nattinen F 55.1
94 Peter Quenneville F 55.1
95 Nikolai Prokhorkin F 55.0
96 Jake McCabe D 54.9
97 Niklas Tikkinen D 54.9
98 Malte Stromwall F 54.9
99 Christopher Clapperton F 54.9
100 Robert Leino F 54.9
101 Matthew Benning D 54.9
102 AJ Michaelson F 54.8
103 Henrik Haapala F 54.8
104 Nicholas Walters D 54.7
105 Garrett Hooey F 54.6
106 Joni Nikko F 54.6
107 Steven Hodges F 54.6
108 Austin Farley F 54.5
109 Otso Rantakari D 54.5
110 Luke Mercer D 54.4
111 Brock McGinn F 54.4
112 Christophe Lalancette F 54.4
113 Zachery Mitchell F 54.4
114 Charles Hudon F 54.3
115 Tyrel Seaman F 54.3
116 Mikael Wikstrand D 54.3
117 Alessio Bertaggia F 54.2
118 Alex Rauter F 54.2
119 Miro Aaltonen F 54.2
120 Jacob Trouba D 54.1
Round 5  
121 Ahti Oksanen D 54.1
122 Cristoval Nieves F 54.1
123 Anton Slepyshev F 54.1
124 Samu Markkula F 54.1
125 Mikko Lehtonen 94 D 54.1
126 Jaynen Rissling D 54.0
127 Riley Barber F 54.0
128 Justin Auger F 53.9
129 Ludvik Bystrom D 53.9
130 Alex Iafallo F 53.8
131 Jiri Sekac F 53.8
132 Philip Tot F 53.6
133 Nicholas Bligh F 53.6
134 Francis Beauvillier F 53.6
135 Pascal Zerressen D 53.6
136 Patrik Machac F 53.5
137 Christian Djoos D 53.5
138 Brady Skjei D 53.5
139 Dakota Mermis D 53.4
140 Christoph Bertschy F 53.3
141 Rasmus Kulmala F 53.3
142 Richard Nejezchleb F 53.3
143 Theodor Blueger F 53.3
144 Roman Will G 53.2
145 Nicolas Kerdiles F 53.2
146 Brian Cooper D 53.1
147 Linus Hultstrom D 53.0
148 Tomas Nosek F 53.0
149 Thomas DiPauli F 53.0
150 Jeremy Boyce F 53.0
Round 6  
151 Daulton Siwak F 52.9
152 Marcus McIvor D 52.8
153 Frank Vatrano F 52.8
154 Wade Murphy F 52.8
155 Hampus Lindholm D 52.8
156 Julian Schmutz F 52.8
157 Collin Olson G 52.6
158 Gustav Rydahl F 52.6
159 Mikko Vainonen D 52.6
160 Miles Koules F 52.5
161 Stanislav Gareev D 52.5
162 Daniel Zaar F 52.5
163 Egor Malenkikh D 52.5
164 Emil Lundberg F 52.5
165 Brendan Collier F 52.5
166 Derrick Pouliot D 52.5
167 Stephon Williams G 52.4
168 Damir Zhafyarov F 52.4
169 Thomas Wilson F 52.4
170 Simon Fernholm D 52.4
171 Alex Lyon G 52.4
172 Brady Gaudet D 52.3
173 Sandro Zangger F 52.3
174 Ludvig Nilsson F 52.3
175 Dean Kukan D 52.3
176 Erik Nystrom F 52.3
177 Linus Ullmark G 52.2
178 Markus Hannikainen F 52.2
179 Filip Sandberg F 52.2
180 Reece Willcox D 52.2
Round 7  
181 Jake Bischoff D 52.2
182 Patrik Bartosak G 52.1
183 Marcus Bohman D 52.1
184 Mattias Janmark-nylen F 52.1
185 Justin Kea F 52.1
186 Dalton Sward F 52.1
187 Cody Payne F 52.0
188 Erik Karlsson 94 F 52.0
189 Joel Vermin F 52.0
190 Mitchell Moroz F 52.0
191 Josh Anderson F 51.9
192 Quentin Shore F 51.9
193 Dario Simion F 51.9
194 Oscar Dansk G 51.8
195 Tomas Hyka F 51.8
196 Cameron Darcy F 51.8
197 Dominik Volek F 51.8
198 David Karlsson F 51.7
199 Joel Wigle F 51.6
200 Austin Wuthrich F 51.5
201 Nikita Lisov D 51.5
202 Denis Kamaev F 51.5
203 Jay Dickman F 51.5
204 Chris Calnan F 51.4
205 Lukas Sutter F 51.4
206 Alexei Filippov F 51.4
207 Chase Hatcher F 51.4
208 Matthew Deblouw F 51.4
209 Dillon Fournier D 51.4
210 Sven Andrighetto F 51.4

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Old
05-29-2012, 12:59 PM
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The Saw Is the Law
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Seems your formula is bumbing Finns pretty high...

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05-29-2012, 02:46 PM
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DuckJet
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What is this? Lindell second overall best talent? I think not.

Let's go round by round

7: Karlsson, Hyka, Dansk, Sutter they'll go higher
6: Lindholm, Pouilot, Wilson...you know what I'm going to stop there...this list is strange.

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05-29-2012, 02:51 PM
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BondraTime
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you are right, everyone will consider this a joke

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05-29-2012, 04:47 PM
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Frank Drebin
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Bobby Ryan a 69 while Selanne a 64?

So Ryan has the potential to be better than Selanne is now, or he is better than Selanne is now, or the potential to be better than Selanne ever was?

I'm not sure.

Thanks for putting this together tho I guess...

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05-29-2012, 04:48 PM
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shaner89
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The effort is there, but this makes no sense.

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05-29-2012, 04:50 PM
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Johnny McBravo
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I agree with the others, makes no sense.

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05-29-2012, 04:54 PM
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dem
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I want to see your formula applied to other drafts to see how successful it would have been.


As of right now it doesn't seem to mean anything

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05-29-2012, 05:07 PM
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Grandpabuzz
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Frank Drebin View Post
Bobby Ryan a 69 while Selanne a 64?

So Ryan has the potential to be better than Selanne is now, or he is better than Selanne is now, or the potential to be better than Selanne ever was?

I'm not sure.

Thanks for putting this together tho I guess...

Bobby Ryan is a 69 overall right now and better than Selanne at 64.

I'll try to put together how last year's draft would look like under the same scenarios.

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05-29-2012, 05:42 PM
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AUAIOMRN
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This is useless without at least one of:

-a detailed explanation of the formula

-rankings of previous drafts using the same method (that were actually done at the time of the draft. Also, the older the better)

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05-29-2012, 07:57 PM
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Harry Kakalovich
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Do you take into account drafted players who didn't make the NHL? Because that would be important, seeing as how those there are the cream of the crop.

Swedes playing in Sweden seem to get hit hard here.

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05-29-2012, 09:40 PM
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Grandpabuzz
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Harry Kakalovitch View Post
Do you take into account drafted players who didn't make the NHL? Because that would be important, seeing as how those there are the cream of the crop.

Swedes playing in Sweden seem to get hit hard here.
Yes, those are including and the entire pool is compared to players from that league (Sedins, Hedmen, Lundqvist, etc).

Swedes this year are hit hard, but there are still players from other drafts that are rated higher (Zibanejad and Slifverberg are both rated near 60 for example).

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05-29-2012, 10:52 PM
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Mayor Bee
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I've created more metrics and algorithms for sports than I care to count, and 95% of them are deleted and forgotten for one of two reasons:
1) Because it doesn't make any sense in the present day, or
2) Because it may make sense for the present day, but defies logic in other time periods

I'm not saying that it's impossible for this one to make sense, but I'm curious to see how it applies to past drafts as well. If it allows people to "see" lightly-regarded gems and highly-touted busts before anyone would realize it, you may be onto something.

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05-29-2012, 11:45 PM
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Minnesota
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Interesting. I would like to see this algorithm applied to older drafts.

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05-20-2013, 11:13 AM
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Harry Kakalovich
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Are you going to do this again for this year´s draft? I would like to see it.

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05-20-2013, 12:32 PM
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Nullus Reverentia
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Lindell future Norris winner super steal?

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05-20-2013, 02:05 PM
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Leafs87
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How does Bobby Ryan have a higher score then Teemu Selanne if it is based on "Maximum potential grade" and how is Cogliano lower then Hagman if it is based on right now ?

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05-20-2013, 04:29 PM
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Skip2myBordyloo
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i'll eat a hat on youtube if esa lindell becomes better than ryan murray or morgan reilly.

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05-20-2013, 05:54 PM
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Beleafer4
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As a leafs fan, I find it funny that connor brown and morgan rielly have the same rankings since I know them both very well.

Regardless, good initiative and hopefully we see more of these on HF in the near future, it broadens our perspectives.

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05-20-2013, 06:03 PM
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3 Minute Minor
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skip2mybordeleau View Post
i'll eat a hat on youtube if esa lindell becomes better than ryan murray or morgan reilly.
Quote saved. Not that I think it will happen but if it does I'll laugh my ass off while I watch your video

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