~Grandpabuzz 2012 NHL Draft 7 Round Ranking and Rating~
Below are my potential-adjusted rankings for the 2012 NHL Draft with associated “maximum potential ratings” (the maximum rating that this player can be in the NHL, given their current age). Almost all of these players will ultimately fall a bit lower than the rating shown below, once/if they make it to the NHL and as they age.
These rankings and ratings are not based on the player’s skillset in terms of skating ability, speed, checking or personality, but are based on the outcome of those abilities in terms of goals, assists, PIM and near-to-all other numerical information about the player’s performance, position, body (age, height, weight), and team (how team performed, which league player is from). These variables are then put together in an algorithm which compares the prospect’s performance to a collection of NHL players who have played in that specific league earlier in their career. Each current NHL player has a value already assigned to them based on their performance in the NHL (which is an entirely different discussion but is based on advanced NHL statistics for those who are familiar with the subject). Outliers are removed before the data is run through a program similar to regression which then outputs a “max potential rating” to each prospect. Note that there are some prospects which play in leagues/schools (Mark Jankowski for example) that cannot be part of the system because there is not enough data to compare them to. However, for about 95% of the prospects out there, I was able to assign a value to them.
I know this list will be considered a joke and completely far fetched for everyone here, but again, these rankings/ratings are not meant to be a definitive number to determine where a player should be drafted. The intent is to corroborate existing empirical evidence scouts/others have of players with a basis of historical statistical comparison. I’ve been working on variations of this project for over the past five years and finally believe there is enough data to make initial estimates for these players/prospects. However, this is a fluid process and as more data becomes available (as new NHL players emerge every year) the numbers will be subject to change over time.
As a reference here are what I have a sample of current NHL players rated as:
Again, I will hopefully get a new topic out there soon about what went into making those ratings above. As a guiding point a score of 62 or above is first line/pair talent, 58-62 is second line/pair talent, 54-58 is third line/pair talent, and below are fringe/fourth line players.
Notable Players who did not have enough supporting data to be rated and are not on this list:
Thomas Spelling, Mark Jankowski, Mackenzie Maceachern, Drake Caggiula, Devin Shore, Daniel O'Regan, Brian Hart, Ben Hutton, James Haas, Mackenzie Weegar, Patrik Luza, Travis Jeke
Notable Players who did not have a high enough rating to warrant being listed
Martin Frk, Slater Koekkoek, Adam Pelech, Matej Beran, Zachary Stepan, Valeri Vasiliev, Alex Gudbranson
I've created more metrics and algorithms for sports than I care to count, and 95% of them are deleted and forgotten for one of two reasons:
1) Because it doesn't make any sense in the present day, or
2) Because it may make sense for the present day, but defies logic in other time periods
I'm not saying that it's impossible for this one to make sense, but I'm curious to see how it applies to past drafts as well. If it allows people to "see" lightly-regarded gems and highly-touted busts before anyone would realize it, you may be onto something.