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Old
05-15-2005, 09:13 PM
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David A. Rainer
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New Article Discussion: Kings 2000 Draft Evaluation

New article by Mr. Logue.

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05-15-2005, 10:31 PM
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Excellent article, John!

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05-16-2005, 01:54 AM
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Nice job, KJ!

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05-16-2005, 09:46 AM
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Thanks guys.

 
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05-16-2005, 10:42 AM
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David A. Rainer
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Good product, especially for someone with the flu all week.

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05-16-2005, 12:29 PM
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Very nice job KJ!

I do disagree with you on one level though.

Quote:
The 2000 draft will be looked back at as the year the franchise finally turned the corner in its scouting, evaluation and selection of impact prospects
I'd like to think that the Kings "turned the corner", but did they really? Let's look at the 4 "keepers" you discuss:

1. Frolov - very solid
2/3. Lilja/Visnovsky - picking Euro over-agers isn't quite the same as finding an 18 year old and predicting how well he will develop. With overage players, it's pretty much a "what you see is what you get" situation. Visnovsky has worked out well, but he is going to be 29 before the beginning of the next season (whenever that is). The Kings essentially gave away Lilja (as well as Bednar) in the Yushkevich deal.
4. Lehoux - IMO, he should have seen at least a few games with the big club considering all of the injuries. Right now, he has "Pavel Rosa Syndrome" - and Andy Murray doesn't give this type of player much of a chance.

In addition, where are the Kings 2 1st round picks from 2001 on the HF Top Prospect List?
The one who may never make it to North America is rated #16, the one who is actually in the system is out of the top 20.....

OK, maybe it's a VERY wide corner

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05-16-2005, 12:38 PM
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Looking back at the drafts in the 90's they were lucky to have 1 player make the NHL. The 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004 drafts are all looking even better.

I will admit that it is a far form perfect draft, but the drafting did take a turn for the positive after the dreadful drafts of 99,98 and 97 (outside of Olli) and having 3 of your top 4 picks playing in the NHL is very respectable.

As far as the 2001 draft, Karlsson is 16, I think Steckel was 21 or 22? Karlsson is a very good prospect, He just won't come to North America and this next season will be an important year for Steckel. He did "turn the corner" himself last year and next season will tell us a lot. 2001 also gave us Cammy, Petiot, and Huet. I still have a good feeling about Mantyla.. I will keep quiet about Bednar.

Regarding Lehoux, if he were playing the way he played this last season he would have had a chance with the club.


Last edited by Old Hickory: 05-16-2005 at 12:45 PM.
 
Old
05-16-2005, 12:46 PM
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good stuff John.

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Old
05-16-2005, 12:55 PM
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Great job, John!

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05-16-2005, 04:52 PM
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Yes, good read, but I'm really waiting for the manchester review. Curious to see new, if any ratings go up for players (ex- Steckel-Parros-Lehoux-Parros-maybe)
I guess it would be the end of the year review.

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05-16-2005, 04:53 PM
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Anyone have an idea as to when we will know when and who are coming to Manchester and who is not. I guess late summer.

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05-16-2005, 04:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by McSorley 33
Yes, good read, but I'm really waiting for the manchester review. Curious to see new, if any ratings go up for players (ex- Steckel-Parros-Lehoux-Parros-maybe)
I guess it would be the end of the year review.
The AHL review would not include new rankings. We would do those after the draft

I am working on the AHL review, I am really badly behind and hope to have it done sometime soon.


Last edited by Old Hickory: 05-16-2005 at 05:28 PM.
 
Old
05-16-2005, 05:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by McSorley 33
Anyone have an idea as to when we will know when and who are coming to Manchester and who is not. I guess late summer.
Are you talking about new arrivals like Petiot? Or what the make up of the team is going to be.

The second part would largely depend on the CBa negotiations

 
Old
05-17-2005, 01:27 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by McSorley 33
Anyone have an idea as to when we will know when and who are coming to Manchester and who is not. I guess late summer.
We may not know anything until July 1st. There are 17 players on the Monarchs whos contracts have expired after this past season. But I am going to go out on a limb and say the team may look entirely differant. With RUMORS that Cammy may opt for Europe if there is no NHL season for 05-06 and 1 less veteran allowed with each team in the AHL we may see many new faces next season.

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05-17-2005, 01:07 PM
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Old Hickory
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PSP
Very nice job KJ!

I do disagree with you on one level though.



I'd like to think that the Kings "turned the corner", but did they really?
Holly Gunning, Our HF editor, is keeping a chart of the finished evaluations(remember is only the finished ones) but there is some good news
Quote:
NHL games per pick ranking (will update as they come in):

Minnesota: 84 NHL games/pick
Los Angeles: 55
Atlanta: 24
New Jersey: 24
Boston: 21
Tampa Bay: 16
Ottawa: 13
Dallas: 12
Montreal: 10
Edmonton: 8
Buffalo: less than 1
Florida: less than 1

 
Old
05-17-2005, 03:15 PM
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The NHL games/pick stat becomes more a measure of how many overagers the team picked. Overagers are usually chosen to produce NOW instead of waiting to develop. Minnesota has the highest game/pick, but they also had 5 overagers out of 9 picks, with one being 31 years old.

If you calculate it on actual prospects, the Kings drafted Frolov and 8 other prospects. Frolov is the only one to play in the NHL with 156 games. This would give the Kings a "games/prospect pick" of 17. Since Atlanta didn't take an overager, their rating is still 24.

IMO, a more accurate way to rate and compare draft classes.

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05-17-2005, 03:56 PM
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Almost everyone on that last drafted overagers. Atlanta and NJ didn't but from what I know of that draft Minny , Boston, Tampa,and Dallas did. And I am pretty sure a few others did too.
Overagers are part of drafting. Just like 18 and 19th years olds, some work out and some don't. But it's still drafting.

 
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05-18-2005, 10:45 AM
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I tend to agree with PSP on this one. Lehoux was considered a bust up until this season, Lilja and Vis were comparatively safe picks to help step into a bad D. The rest have become "too small" to be NHL material. Not sure that drafting a handfull of midgets, 2 Euro veterans and one 1st round stud is anything to be proud of. Sure the past was awefull, but this draft was not a windfall either. It seems to mark a turn around in their approach to the draft. Maybe it should have read...a couple of positives for the Kings in a draft, finally....

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05-18-2005, 12:20 PM
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I tend to agree with KJ

Sure, it's not like we turned things around and had the best draft ever in Kings history... but it was a turnaround. Even 2001 has some good points. 2002 is, in my opinion, becoming the worst draft in DT's tenure since the turnaround in 2000.

Argue all you want about Visnovsky and Lilja being overagers, but it's a chance they'll come overseas and be as productive as they are. Lehoux was a "bust" as much as a third rounder could be, but he finally turned things around. Didn't St. Louis need some time to turn things around and get a chance to play in the NHL?

That's not to say that Lehoux will be a superstar, but a bust at one point of time is not a 100% indication of the future.

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05-18-2005, 01:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by King'sPawn
Argue all you want about Visnovsky and Lilja being overagers, but it's a chance they'll come overseas and be as productive as they are.
It's always "a chance", but picking players 5 years or more older than the typical draftee is much easier. The overagers in general are role players where there really is no expectation of tremendous development past the stage where they are when drafted.

IMO, draft picks should be used to build your team for the future, not fill existing holes - free agency works (or worked) just fine for those type of players.

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05-18-2005, 01:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PSP
IMO, draft picks should be used to build your team for the future, not fill existing holes - free agency works (or worked) just fine for those type of players.
Under the terms of the old CBA, You get an "indentured servant" you can pay close to the league minimum to and doesn't have free agency rights for several seasons. Free agents are expensive.

 
Old
05-18-2005, 03:56 PM
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David A. Rainer
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What does it matter to me what age the player is when drafted. The only thing that matters to me is 1. production at the NHL level and 2. the number of years the player will produce at the NHL level.


Since most 18 year old prospects don't actually start seeing playing time until 20-22 (where, if they were drafted at time they would be called "over-agers"), what the heck does it matter if the player drafted is an over-ager or not. He won't be producing at the NHL level until he's 20-22 anyway. And since players rarely stick with the same team their whole careers, just as long as the draftee doesn't suddenly implode after two years, the overage draftee will likely spend the same number of years in the NHL as an 18 year old.

With that said, the only thing that matters is the level of NHL production between an 18 year old and an over-ager. Yes, traditionally, the 18 year old has the higher level of potential, but it is also the far higher risk. It is the same basic concept as Beane Draft Philosophy. If the Kings want to pursue what some would consider more conservative avenues in their drafting philosophy, so be it. They are exchaning potential for lower risk. I can't argue with that. I think the 2000 draft was an extremely productive draft irrespective of the age of the draftees.

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05-18-2005, 04:56 PM
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DO people know that Mantyla is like 5-7? That's ok if you're Martin St. Louis, but this guy is a defenseman.

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05-18-2005, 05:01 PM
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Good job on the article, John. I'm not convinced though that this is 'turning the corner' at least in the 2000 draft.

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Old
05-18-2005, 05:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by go kim johnsson
DO people know that Mantyla is like 5-7? That's ok if you're Martin St. Louis, but this guy is a defenseman.
Still give him a shot, if anything he could be a very good AHL'er.

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