According to this article by Terry Jones of the Edmonton Sun, the lottery they are considering for the "Crosby" draft would put us in the top 6 in terms of chances at landing the "Next One". Let's hope it is true!
The concept features a relatively simple system involving bingo balls and whether or not your team has been making or missing the playoffs lately. If you've missed the playoffs three times in the last three years, you get three balls in the bingo machine. That's Columbus, Buffalo, Atlanta, Florida, Pittsburgh and the New York Rangers.
If you have more than one ball, your remaining one or two balls would be taken out of the machine. Then they'd do it again with improved odds, picking No. 2.
So if the Rangers miss out on #1 it goes to a 1/29 shot? Everyones even for Brule/Johnson? Thats ********.
No, I think if the Rangers miss out on Cosby, their 3 balls remain in the bingo ball holder and their chance at the 2nd pick become 3 balls out of what ever is left, so their chances increase as they move down the draft order
my impression was that they were talking about the team who wins the #1 pick...if they have 1 or 2 balls left after that then those balls are taken out (so you don't get another shot at another 1st round pick, unless you had one from another team i guess) if you had 3 balls but didn't get the #1 pick, then all 3 of your balls would stay in
they word it pretty poorly however...it's the word "remaining" that leads me to believe they're talking about the team who lands the #1 pick when they say they'll take out the extra balls
wait, does this mean that after the first pick the rest of the draft is a total crapshoot? This is an awful deal for the rangers. The danger here is not that we won't get crosby, but that we'll end up with the 20th pick. I can live with not getting crosby, but the rangers need to get a top pick in this draft, anything less would be quite damaging to the rebuilding effort. It would be extreemly unfair if a bad team like the rangers or the penguins got the 30th pick and the lighting got the #2 pick. I'm not saying that the draft order should be drawn entirly from previous records, but you have to make sure that really bad teams get to pick somewhere in the top 10.
Whos the math wiz? Theres gotta be a way to figure out the probability for some of these picks.
It depends who gets the 1st pick, right now we have a 5.7% chance of getting Crosby.
If one of the teams with 3 balls gets it then the rangers have a 6.1% of the 2nd round pick, if another team with 3 balls gets the 2nd pick then we have a 6.5% chance of getting the 3rd pick.
If one of the teams with 1 ball gets the 1st pick then we have a 5.8% chance of the 2nd pick, then if a team with 2 balls gets the 2nd pick then we have a 6.1% chance of the 3rd pick.
It varies depending on what teams wins the picks but they are all pretty low %'s.
alright, looking at it again it does seem that they're talking about the winner of the lottery, not all teams with multiple balls. If that's the case then i'm just fine with this system.
There's a decent chance the Rangers end up picking in the middle to end of the draft. As someone pointed out, there's a 5.77 or so chance of the Rangers getting that #1 pick. If that #1 pick is obtained by Philly, Dallas, Detroit or other teams that have not missed the playoffs, the odds of getting that #2 pick do no increase dramatically (I believe there were 52 balls, so the chances of getting the #1 pick if it's a Detroit, et al team would be 5.88%). Of course, they have the same odds as anybody with three balls (i.e., haven't made the playoffs in three years) and a better chance than guys with 2 or 1. But if Detroit gets 1 ball, shouldn't the Rangers get 4 (Never miss the playoffs = 1, missed one = 2, missed two = 3, missed three = 4).
Whatever...it's really one of the more fair ways to work this thing out. It compensates for the off-possibility that Tampa goes from #1 to out of the playoffs, or if Phoenix went from #5 worst to a playoff team.
i'd say it should be weighted a little more towards the teams who haven't done well recently...that's why the worst teams have always picked high in the drafts so why only give them slim chances to even pick in the top 10?
the idea in general is fair enough i think but it could be tweaked for sure
I read nothing in that article that said this was final. I wouldn't get to resigned to this just yet.
If this labour situation is all about helping out the little guys, I tend to think that something will happen in NYR's favour. **** the Detroit's and Colorado's...they should pick no earlier than 14th.
If this labour situation is all about helping out the little guys, I tend to think that something will happen in NYR's favour. **** the Detroit's and Colorado's...they should pick no earlier than 14th.
It sounds ironic but the Rangers are very much 'little guys' in the sense that I/we are talking.
This probably isn't anymore then an idea that's been floated. Nothing will be agreed upon until a new CBA. With that said why 3 years and 3 balls? Why not 7 years and up to 7 balls
Brule [ winger ], Ryan [ Winger ], J.Johnson ( d ), Latrandesse ( winger ? ) ( or how ever his name is spelt ) or even M.Zargpan ( C ) I would be pretty happy.
I would prefer Johnson over any of the above named and if Johnsons not available I would like to get Brule or Ryan.
its almost a given the NYR's will have a top 10 pick and thats to low I would assume no lower than 6 or 7, there not going to be 30 or 14 or what ever people are mentoning, I seriously doubt that. the NHL wont let teams like DEt, Dallas, NJD, Philly etc get top 10 picks, thats basically running the NHL backwards. If for any reason NYR does get stuck with the #14 or 15 pick I would like to see them move a prospect and a couple 2nd rounders for maybe a #18-20/21 that would work great 2 mid first round picks and they still have a couple seconds left so it all works out in the end.
Yea, I feel like we either get Johnson or go forward... or maybe go forward anyway if we are 1 or 2... He seems like the only guy who is a legit #1 d-man. Even if we pick 6 then we we would probably fall somewhere in here...
Crosby
Johnson
Brule
Pouliot
Ryan
Kopitar
At least one of those last three would have to fall to us, and I'd really be happy with any of them...
