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biggest bust of this years free agent crop.

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05-27-2013, 01:33 PM
  #1
LEAFANFORLIFE23
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biggest bust of this years free agent crop.

Last time out we did the biggest steal of the free agent crop this time I want to know who will be the biggest bust? This free agent class does not have a lot of star power but it does have some quality to it.

Names like Horton, Clowe, Ryder, Clarkson, Weiss, Ribeiro, Roy, Backstrom, Smith, Thomas, Regehr plus with the buyout coming a few more may hit the market

Of all the guys on the market or still to hit the market via buyout who will be the biggest bust? the guy that when he's signed fans will be happy but by seasons end his contract will be seen as an anchor.

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05-27-2013, 01:36 PM
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Spazmatic Dan
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I like Clarkson but I could easily see him signing for way too much and fitting the bill here.

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05-27-2013, 01:40 PM
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Djp
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A lot of this is relative to the contract they are signed for.

If the Ranger resigned Clowe for something cheap like $2.5M-$3M then it would be fine. If they sign him for $6M then he would be considered a bust.

Roy is another example...able to sign him for a short term 2-3 uys at around a $3M per is very different than signing him for $5M+

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05-27-2013, 01:42 PM
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bleedblue1223
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Whoever gives Weiss a long-term contract. He was having a bad season and had a wrist injury. Don't think he will ever be the same.

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05-27-2013, 01:43 PM
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Derek Roy. He was once a good 1B center. He has regressed to the point where I wouldn't want him in my top six anymore. I will be shocked if he doesn't end up getting paid like a #1 center though (5 million +).

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05-27-2013, 01:44 PM
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Ho Borvat
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David Clarkson
- Past 3 seasons he has averaged 35 points/season.
- People have him penciled in for 5 million per.
- I know he brings more to the table than points, but at 5 mil... you better produce..

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05-27-2013, 01:47 PM
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DuckEatinShark
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It's really hard to determine a free agent bust because it is governed by the contract they have yet to sign and how they fit into the new team's system.

For example, Ryan Suter was an excellent FA steal. Brad Richards was not. Scott Gomez was awesome at $700K, but not at $7 million.

If I had to guess though, I think Clowe will get some cash because people believe he's still a good power forward, but will be disappointed when he scores 5 goals the whole season. He's too slow to play in the NHL anymore.

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05-27-2013, 01:47 PM
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Ollie Weeks
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Clowe and Clarkson are going to boom or bust.

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05-27-2013, 01:55 PM
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LEAFANFORLIFE23
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I'm going to go with Regehr. He's been a favorite of mine but at the same time he might be another komi

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05-27-2013, 02:01 PM
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caley
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LEAFANFORLIFE23 View Post
I'm going to go with Regehr. He's been a favorite of mine but at the same time he might be another komi
Yeah, I could see that one. Someone in one of the free agent games paid him $3.5+ for 3-4 seasons and I thought "God that would be a nightmare if a team I liked did that."

I agree on Clarkson and Clowe having the potential to bust really bad, especially with some thinking Clarkson might get $5-6 million a season.

Ryan Whitney's the kind of guy who could be quite good for someone at $3-$3.5 million but with the sparse UFA crop teams may get into a minor bidding war and pay him $4.5 and that could be a travesty.

My pick is Backstrom. He's old, by many accounts he's deteriorating, he's coming off sports hernia surgery, I could see him being Khabibulin-lite when all is said and done.

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05-27-2013, 02:03 PM
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416Leafer
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Bozak is apparently seeking a multi-year deal for 5M+.

If anybody signs him to that, they'll immediately regret it. The guy has been getting top minutes, top PP minutes, and playing with Kessel/JVR/Lupul for the past few years.

He's yet to breach 50 points and is 27 years old. Keep in mind that Matt Stajan was able to put up 55 and 57 points in his final two seasons here, that first 55 point season was after Sundin had left but before Kessel arrived (second one is split with Calgary).

Bozak will not get top line minutes / top PP minutes anywhere else in the league except for maybe Columbus. So presumably he'll be playing with less talented linemates, with less ice-time, and less power play time. The guy will put up like ~35-40 points in that type of scenario.

Some Leaf fans like to pretend that he has "chemistry" with Kessel... but that's not the case at all. Just a couple quick things to consider.

1) Bozak had 0.886 assists/60 minutes of play (5 on 5). Behind offensive juggernauts such as Carl Gunnarson and Jay McClement who play defensive roles with non-offensive linemates.

2) Only ~40% of those assists were primary assists. As a comparison, ~83% of Kadri's and ~71% of Kessels assists were primary assists (/60 minutes 5 on 5). These are the types of guys that "create" offence, Bozak just kinda happens to be there and pick up points by accident. Keep in mind that the people who are "pro-Bozak" like to refer to him as a playmaker...

3) He's not a goal scorer either. He's never breached 20 goals, despite playing with Kessel who's a very good playmaker.

4) He's not particularly big or physical, so don't expect him to bring that to the table as part of some "intangibles" package. He's also only decent defensively.

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05-27-2013, 02:05 PM
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How much wil Bickell and Stallberg want?

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05-27-2013, 02:10 PM
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Brad Richards. And maybe Clowe. I love the guy, but he's not the same consistent player he was for a lot of years in San Jose anymore.

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05-27-2013, 02:11 PM
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belair
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I'm going to go with Brian Bickell.

He's looking at a significant raise from his paltry $661,000 this summer and has been a pivot in Chicago's playoff run.

Someone's going to give this guy at least $2.5M and at the first sign of struggle, the fan-base will turn on him.

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05-27-2013, 02:13 PM
  #15
LEAFANFORLIFE23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 416Leafer View Post
Bozak is apparently seeking a multi-year deal for 5M+.

If anybody signs him to that, they'll immediately regret it. The guy has been getting top minutes, top PP minutes, and playing with Kessel/JVR/Lupul for the past few years.

He's yet to breach 50 points and is 27 years old. Keep in mind that Matt Stajan was able to put up 55 and 57 points in his final two seasons here, that first 55 point season was after Sundin had left but before Kessel arrived (second one is split with Calgary).

Bozak will not get top line minutes / top PP minutes anywhere else in the league except for maybe Columbus. So presumably he'll be playing with less talented linemates, with less ice-time, and less power play time. The guy will put up like ~35-40 points in that type of scenario.

Some Leaf fans like to pretend that he has "chemistry" with Kessel... but that's not the case at all. Just a couple quick things to consider.

1) Bozak had 0.886 assists/60 minutes of play (5 on 5). Behind offensive juggernauts such as Carl Gunnarson and Jay McClement who play defensive roles with non-offensive linemates.

2) Only ~40% of those assists were primary assists. As a comparison, ~83% of Kadri's and ~71% of Kessels assists were primary assists (/60 minutes 5 on 5). These are the types of guys that "create" offence, Bozak just kinda happens to be there and pick up points by accident. Keep in mind that the people who are "pro-Bozak" like to refer to him as a playmaker...

3) He's not a goal scorer either. He's never breached 20 goals, despite playing with Kessel who's a very good playmaker.

4) He's not particularly big or physical, so don't expect him to bring that to the table as part of some "intangibles" package. He's also only decent defensively.
I agree with everything you said except I don't see him getting NEAR 40 points without Kessel/Lupul/JVR I think Bozak will have the worst contract in the NHL. the ONLY reason to re sign him is Kessel is his boy if Bozak is here Kessel might be SLIGHTLY easier to re sign

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05-27-2013, 02:14 PM
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Smith is going to be the next Bryzgalov.

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05-27-2013, 02:22 PM
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Dustin Penner.

Someone will sign him because of his size and cup rings. He'll disappoint.

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05-27-2013, 02:22 PM
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Clarkson. teams seem willing to give him more money than you can justify after 1 year

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05-27-2013, 02:24 PM
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Mike Smith... a backup goaltender. Many think he is a bonafide starter.

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05-27-2013, 02:26 PM
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LEAFANFORLIFE23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OilerFan4Life View Post
Dustin Penner.

Someone will sign him because of his size and cup rings. He'll disappoint.
Don't know if he can disapoint he won't get to much imo and he's signed for the playoffs

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Old
05-27-2013, 02:28 PM
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Pretty much all of then are good candidates. Terrible year for UFA's.

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Old
05-27-2013, 02:42 PM
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Originally Posted by Ollie Weeks View Post
Clowe and Clarkson are going to boom or bust.
As a NYR fan I'd take both for 2 yrs at 3 mill per. Won't happen but would love if it did

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05-27-2013, 02:43 PM
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mstad101
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Ray Emery.
I said this in the goalie thread on this page. He seems to have had a strong year behind an amazing Blackhawks team who didn't lose in regulation for half the season. He is primed for a move with a higher than deserved contract while not being able to produce to the point where it'll be acceptable.

The top centres of this free agent group look like they have major bust potential if signed for too much or too long.

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05-27-2013, 02:53 PM
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416Leafer
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Originally Posted by LEAFANFORLIFE23 View Post
I agree with everything you said except I don't see him getting NEAR 40 points without Kessel/Lupul/JVR I think Bozak will have the worst contract in the NHL. the ONLY reason to re sign him is Kessel is his boy if Bozak is here Kessel might be SLIGHTLY easier to re sign
I think Bozak could be an ok 3rd line centre. Not a great one. But at least he can play on the PK reasonably well (unlike Grabovski who played in that shutdown/checking role this season).

So if we signed him to like a 3M deal, I'd be cool with it. Especially due to the Kessel connection.

But his contract demands are absurd. It'd be like signing Chris Kelly to a 5 year 25 million $ deal or something like that.

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05-27-2013, 04:47 PM
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Originally Posted by belair View Post
I'm going to go with Brian Bickell.

He's looking at a significant raise from his paltry $661,000 this summer and has been a pivot in Chicago's playoff run.

Someone's going to give this guy at least $2.5M and at the first sign of struggle, the fan-base will turn on him.
I would love for him to sign a 2.5mil contract with the Hawks. He is well worth it if he plays like he has this year and 2 years ago. If he plays like he did last year, it will be a bust.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstad101 View Post
Ray Emery.
I said this in the goalie thread on this page. He seems to have had a strong year behind an amazing Blackhawks team who didn't lose in regulation for half the season. He is primed for a move with a higher than deserved contract while not being able to produce to the point where it'll be acceptable.

The top centres of this free agent group look like they have major bust potential if signed for too much or too long.
I agree with this.

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