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2013 NHL Entry Draft Talk 9.0

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Old
05-31-2013, 08:33 AM
  #301
le_sean
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Originally Posted by FisherKing View Post
I was wondering about Downing. Thanks for your info on him. As regards Mantha being "chicken bleep", that could be the case, but I wonder whether or not his avoiding the dirty areas and physical contact has more to do with him seeing himself as such an offensive talent that he sees such work as puck retrieval and regaining constrol of the puck from the oppositon and battling along the boards and in the dirty areas as "beneath him" and work for the lesser talented grinders. In other words, he might have an over-inflated opinion of himself and perhaps an issue with self-entitlement. Not saying this in his defence, quite the opposite, and I'm not sure the reasons he avoids that part of the game really matter. Anyway, just a thought.
That's the thing. You can't draft a player that played entitled his whole life and just hope that coaching can change his style of play. That rarely works.

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05-31-2013, 08:49 AM
  #302
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Originally Posted by Freaky Habs Fan View Post
Any place to watch some games of the U-18 online?
Youtube has a couple of the games uploaded, albeit in Russian. I couldn't find a team Sweden game on there, though, in case you want to check out Burakowsky.

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05-31-2013, 08:50 AM
  #303
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Monahan has been since over a year in the top 5, in the top 8 in some lists. However in the past couple of weeks I've seen him out of the top 10 for the first time for some reason.
There is a marked limitation to his offensive potential. He projects as a number 2 center. That is not what you want to use a top 5 draft choice for. Particularly when there is so much other talent available in this draft. Monahan will go between 8 and 15, depending on how deep and long the run is on defensemen. In the recent NFL draft there was a run on offensive lineman with many lesser regarded/rated players being taken based on their position. It was almost a herd like mentality with the general drafting principle of always taking 'best player available' being disregarded. The result was other positional players were pushed down the draft board and presented great value to lower drafting teams. With so many perceived high end defensemen available, Monahan, may easily be pushed down to the mid-teens. Great value for some lucky team.

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05-31-2013, 08:57 AM
  #304
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I didn't realize Morin was a god. Wow. Where was I?
Apparently not watching the U18s.

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05-31-2013, 08:58 AM
  #305
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Originally Posted by ChesterNimitz View Post
There is a marked limitation to his offensive potential. He projects as a number 2 center. That is not what you want to use a top 5 draft choice for. Particularly when there is so much other talent available in this draft. Monahan will go between 8 and 15, depending on how deep and long the run is on defensemen. In the recent NFL draft there was a run on offensive lineman with many lesser regarded/rated players being taken based on their position. It was almost a herd like mentality with the general drafting principle of always taking 'best player available' being disregarded. The result was other positional players were pushed down the draft board and presented great value to lower drafting teams. With so many perceived high end defensemen available, Monahan, may easily be pushed down to the mid-teens. Great value for some lucky team.
I see what you are trying to portray, but the NFL is a poor example. It's always been about need since the drafted players are expected to step in immediately. Drafting the BPA is rare in the first round.

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05-31-2013, 09:10 AM
  #306
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I see what you are trying to portray, but the NFL is a poor example. It's always been about need since the drafted players are expected to step in immediately. Drafting the BPA is rare in the first round.
And that is why there are so many pathetic, chronically losing franchises in the NFL. George Young, the former great GM of the New York Football Giants had a wonderful expression about his drafting philosophy: I like to draft big men who can run. I think the simplicity of that approach can be adapted to the NHL: let's draft big men that can skate. Drafting for need, by definition, means that you are willing to by-pass a superior talent to meet or fill a perceived need. Using this logic a team needing a goaltender would have passed on Crosby or will pass on McDavid in two years to meet a need. This is organizational suicide. You use free agency and trading to fill needs and you use the draft to acquire assets.

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05-31-2013, 09:29 AM
  #307
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Originally Posted by Freaky Habs Fan View Post
Any place to watch some games of the U-18 online?
TSN video player.

Hockey Canada -> Games on demand. 4 Team Canada games are there.

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05-31-2013, 09:32 AM
  #308
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Originally Posted by ChesterNimitz View Post
There is a marked limitation to his offensive potential. He projects as a number 2 center. That is not what you want to use a top 5 draft choice for. Particularly when there is so much other talent available in this draft. Monahan will go between 8 and 15, depending on how deep and long the run is on defensemen. In the recent NFL draft there was a run on offensive lineman with many lesser regarded/rated players being taken based on their position. It was almost a herd like mentality with the general drafting principle of always taking 'best player available' being disregarded. The result was other positional players were pushed down the draft board and presented great value to lower drafting teams. With so many perceived high end defensemen available, Monahan, may easily be pushed down to the mid-teens. Great value for some lucky team.
I would be surprised if Edmonton doesn't take him at 7.

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05-31-2013, 09:32 AM
  #309
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Originally Posted by ChesterNimitz View Post
And that is why there are so many pathetic, chronically losing franchises in the NFL. George Young, the former great GM of the New York Football Giants had a wonderful expression about his drafting philosophy: I like to draft big men who can run. I think the simplicity of that approach can be adapted to the NHL: let's draft big men that can skate. Drafting for need, by definition, means that you are willing to by-pass a superior talent to meet or fill a perceived need. Using this logic a team needing a goaltender would have passed on Crosby or will pass on McDavid in two years to meet a need. This is organizational suicide. You use free agency and trading to fill needs and you use the draft to acquire assets.
If we draft big players who can skate, we'll probably by-pass a superior but smaller talent to gill a perceived need.

I know we need to get bigger, but we have to be careful. And if we draft a 6'5" player in the first round, he's gonna have a lot of pressure on his shoulders. Fans are gonna think he's the one to save our small team. It's still gonna be the 25th overall pick, and not the 3rd overall pick like Galchenyuk.

I almost hope we draft an average sized player with our first pick so people will be angry on draft day, but will forget about the size of the player a week after...

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05-31-2013, 09:34 AM
  #310
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Originally Posted by Marc the Habs Fan View Post
TSN video player.

Hockey Canada -> Games on demand. 4 Team Canada games are there.
Right on. They have the Canada vs Sweden game.

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05-31-2013, 09:37 AM
  #311
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The Sens fans voted for Burakowsky in the HF board-to-board mock at #17.

Lazar, Pulock, Morrissey, Hartman, Zykov, Morin, Mueller, Mantha and Rychel all still available, two will be on board at 25 when we vote. Hopefully we're not stuck with Rychel and Mantha haha. Fucale also available.

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05-31-2013, 09:38 AM
  #312
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TSN video player.

Hockey Canada -> Games on demand. 4 Team Canada games are there.
sweet, thanks!

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05-31-2013, 09:40 AM
  #313
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Originally Posted by NotProkofievian View Post
Right on. They have the Canada vs Sweden game.
Watch for William Nylander of the 2014 draft, he's going to stand out. In fact he was probably one of the only Swede who played well vs Canada, kid's going to be very good.

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05-31-2013, 09:41 AM
  #314
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Originally Posted by Freaky Habs Fan View Post
If we draft big players who can skate, we'll probably by-pass a superior but smaller talent to gill a perceived need.

I know we need to get bigger, but we have to be careful. And if we draft a 6'5" player in the first round, he's gonna have a lot of pressure on his shoulders. Fans are gonna think he's the one to save our small team. It's still gonna be the 25th overall pick, and not the 3rd overall pick like Galchenyuk.

I almost hope we draft an average sized player with our first pick so people will be angry on draft day, but will forget about the size of the player a week after...
Size is not the same in the NHL as NFL. You do need some size, but unlike NFL where Quaterbacks need to be 6'4", NHL skill guys are commonly 5'8" to 6'. it's also easier to surround a small guy with size than find a guy with equal skill AND size.

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05-31-2013, 09:41 AM
  #315
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Originally Posted by Freaky Habs Fan View Post
If we draft big players who can skate, we'll probably by-pass a superior but smaller talent to gill a perceived need.

I know we need to get bigger, but we have to be careful. And if we draft a 6'5" player in the first round, he's gonna have a lot of pressure on his shoulders. Fans are gonna think he's the one to save our small team. It's still gonna be the 25th overall pick, and not the 3rd overall pick like Galchenyuk.

I almost hope we draft an average sized player with our first pick so people will be angry on draft day, but will forget about the size of the player a week after...
In some respects, drafting can be formulated as an optimization problem:

minimize the difference between the expected performance of the player, and the desired performance.

The desired performance is basically up to you, but it should make some sense. I think what Chester is getting at is that he's framing the "desired performance" in playoff terms. It's pretty clear that the playoffs are being called like it's 1995, and I don't think that's going to change. We have two choices: we can ***** about it, and talk about the way things ought to be, or we can build our team accordingly, and try to profit from it.

I think the "big guys who can skate" is purposefully simplistic in order to make his analogy work. I think what he precisely means is "lets draft guys whose games stand a higher probability of flourishing in the playoffs than those who stand a higher probability of being successful regular season players."

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05-31-2013, 09:43 AM
  #316
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Originally Posted by MonkeyBusiness View Post
Watch for William Nylander of the 2014 draft, he's going to stand out. In fact he was probably one of the only Swede who played well vs Canada, kid's going to be very good.
I will be. However, I'm most interested in what De La Rose, Burakowsky and Hagg got up to.

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05-31-2013, 09:46 AM
  #317
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Originally Posted by NotProkofievian View Post
In some respects, drafting can be formulated as an optimization problem:

minimize the difference between the expected performance of the player, and the desired performance.

The desired performance is basically up to you, but it should make some sense. I think what Chester is getting at is that he's framing the "desired performance" in playoff terms. It's pretty clear that the playoffs are being called like it's 1995, and I don't think that's going to change. We have two choices: we can ***** about it, and talk about the way things ought to be, or we can build our team accordingly, and try to profit from it.

I think the "big guys who can skate" is purposefully simplistic in order to make his analogy work. I think what he precisely means is "lets draft guys whose games stand a higher probability of flourishing in the playoffs than those who stand a higher probability of being successful regular season players."

But if you look at the top 10 scorers in the playoffs, only 2(Malkin at 6'3" and Horton at 6'2") are above 6'1"(being the average height in the NHL). It's not like size in your skill players gives you a big edge in the playoffs.

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05-31-2013, 09:52 AM
  #318
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Size is important for your complementary players. Skills is important for your star players.

Right now. Our big players are our 4th liners. This is not working.

But we dont need to have a complete 6'2 line-up to suceed.

5'11 is probably the average height of star players.

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05-31-2013, 09:54 AM
  #319
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Originally Posted by le_sean View Post
That's the thing. You can't draft a player that played entitled his whole life and just hope that coaching can change his style of play. That rarely works.
Is Mantha a Guillaume Latendresse comparable?

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05-31-2013, 09:55 AM
  #320
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Is Mantha a Guillaume Latendresse comparable?
Not as many wraparounds.

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05-31-2013, 09:56 AM
  #321
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Originally Posted by ChesterNimitz View Post
Monahan will go between 8 and 15, depending on how deep and long the run is on defensemen.
Monahan will go as high as 5 and as low as 9, I say greater then 75% odds he is drafted at or before 7. I honestly can't see The Devils passing up on him if he is their at 9(and I also don't think Buffalo passes him up at 8 but their is reasonable doubt they might go defense)

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05-31-2013, 09:58 AM
  #322
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But if you look at the top 10 scorers in the playoffs, only 2(Malkin at 6'3" and Horton at 6'2") are above 6'1"(being the average height in the NHL). It's not like size in your skill players gives you a big edge in the playoffs.
And one of our best players was Brendan Gallagher. I'm certainly not suggesting any set rule like "draft only if 6'2 or over." Under my suggested rule in the last sentence, I wouldn't draft Mantha, for example. I would in fact draft guys who are much smaller ahead of him.

But, there is something to be said for size. Size doesn't have zero advantages, and the advantages it does convey won't exactly be picked up by "number of top 10 scorers over a certain height."

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05-31-2013, 10:02 AM
  #323
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Grant- What are your or other scouts feelings on William Butcher? I don't see much mention of him on the boards, but as I understood it he was a 1st round/2nd round tweener for a lot of the year. Any thoughts?

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05-31-2013, 10:06 AM
  #324
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Originally Posted by Marc the Habs Fan View Post
The Sens fans voted for Burakowsky in the HF board-to-board mock at #17.

Lazar, Pulock, Morrissey, Hartman, Zykov, Morin, Mueller, Mantha and Rychel all still available, two will be on board at 25 when we vote. Hopefully we're not stuck with Rychel and Mantha haha. Fucale also available.
Regrettably, in the real world, the draft is not governed by popularity. If it somehow comes to pass that at 17, both Morin and Lazar are still on the board, I would spare no reasonable cost to acquire these players. If we could come out of the draft with only Morin and Lazar (even if it costs us existing prospects and draft choices for next year) it would be a great draft for Montreal.

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05-31-2013, 10:07 AM
  #325
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Is Mantha a Guillaume Latendresse comparable?
Not at all. Mantha plays a sniper role and has much more skill and speed than Gui ever did, has grit but doesn't use it. Latendresse played a power forward role and tried to play with the grit he never had. My own, slightly biased opinion.

Totally different playing styles.

I'd say at best he's comparable to a bigger, more physical Pacioretty. At worst, a bigger Michael Ryder.

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