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Montreal Canadiens Drafting Hit Rate (under Trevor Timmins)

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Old
06-03-2013, 06:21 AM
  #76
Ubercron9000
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Our drafting is good just look at our current line up.

Alex Galchenyuk- Going to be an amazing player. Yes he was drafted 3rd overall and people say it was a no brainer but we hit a home-run.

Pacioretty, Max- Home run! Can't deny that he is a top player anymore he just is. He may not be as physical recently but you can't justify him not being an impact player.

Gallagher, Brendan- Hard worker with talent that we got in the 5th round. Small but fearless. I think he is a home run pick.

Subban, P.K.- Star enough said.

Price, Carey- Great goaltender enough said.

These are all top 6/4 players.

We also drafted guys like Grabovski, Streit, Mcdougnah whom are impact players imo and talented players. Which we let go for scraps.

Then we still have Kristo, Tinordi, Beaulieu who have a lot of potential.

We had some years where we didn't have a lot of picks either so the drafting wasn't gonna be that great coupled with weak drafts. This year how ever it is supposed to be a good draft and we have a lot of picks for for top 60. I'm also sure we might even get a few more picks at the draft.

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06-03-2013, 07:02 AM
  #77
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The only real problem I have with our drafting is we take headcases like Archambault, Grabovski and Sergei then trade them away because we don't have good management/personnel to deal with them. Why do we take a chance on kids with known attitude problems if we're not going to give them a coach/personnel who are trying to help them succeed? We put a lot of those types of players in a position to fail right out of the gate and a lot of them become good players elsewhere. I feel like it's counterproductive to continuously draft these players if we're not going to surround them with positivity.

Our drafting would look even better if we didn't get burned multiple times by European guys deciding not to come over or coming over and not being given a chance. Korneyev in particular has always been better than Emelin. Perezhogin should have been given a bigger chance. Imagine how good Emelin could be by now if he came over after three years pre-face injury instead of seven with a metal face.

Also imagine if we didn't have to take a QMJHL guy every year just to avoid media backlash even though it's clearly inferior development wise to the OHL and WHL(and possibly the USHL at this point). The 2013 draft is the first time in decades where the Q has more than a handful good prospects going in.

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06-03-2013, 08:14 AM
  #78
Kriss E
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Originally Posted by Whitesnake View Post
But my point is, let say you you have no real centermen in your prospect pool and at least 4-5 very good d-men prospects. It's your turn to talk and you have a choice between Nurse and Monahan. Who will you go for? And based your opinion on the fact that for half of your scouting crew, Nurse is the better athlete, better overall player and best talent...and the other half is leaning towards Monahan. As BPA is often not as clear cut as some would like to believe. Especially since it's not about best player RIGHT NOW, but best possibility of potential later. So in that example, I will believe that needs kick in.

How do we really determine who's BPA between Jones and MacKinnon. Is Mac BPA based on the Mem Cup? Wasn't Jones BPA based on the WJC? They both had great seasons...playing a different season, in a different environment....who's the BPA really? So when you are unable to really answer it...won't you go with needs then? Edmonton has all those forwards yet, can't defend properly...wouldn't their needs count? Why is it that the talk is already there that Nurse goes #7? Is Nurse REALLY a clear BPA? What if Nichuskin is still available? And so on.

Again, the needs talk is not about "Okay so we're the AVS and we NEED a goalie hence we will then go for Fucale as the #1 instead of Jones. I don,t think the needs talk was ever about that. But between 2 players that you could see yourself have no problem picking, I would believe that needs kicks in if there's a real need to fill up here. People say that you don't go for needs as your needs will most likely be different in 2-3-4 years...Well as we see, it takes time to change the culture. We've been talking for a big centerman for how many years again? And how about those great powerforwards? How about having some depth in goaltending? Or having more puck moving D-men, or even big punishing ones? Thing is, since it's not everybody who develop as you expect, it might takes more than 1 or 2 drafts to fix partially your needs. And if you can't fix it through UFA or trades, well the draft is still the way to go...and you still have to drafts quite a few guys to get a small minority to play.
Well, yes, that's what I mentioned. If the difference between two players is similar to the one Jones and MacKinnon have, then you draft for need. There's no question about it, and I'm pretty sure Timmins operates that way. I've never seen him draft someone off the wall just due to needs. The last one was Price and I'm pretty sure Gainey had quite a bit to do with that decision seeing how much he loved this kid.

But as you said, it takes time to build a solid pool of prospects and it isn't just about drafting them, you need to be able to develop them properly too. Not to mention, the position at which you draft is important.

Also, essentially it comes down to the GM taking the decision. His scouting department will feed him the reports and suggestions, but they also have their personal opinions and they're the ones that will decide whether or not they will draft by need and pick a big skilled top center like Kopitar or go for what they feel is a thoroughbred and pick Price.
Alas, we seem to finally be on the right track with our centers with Galchenyuk and Eller, and our forward group has improved with guys like Gallagher, Collberg, Kristo, Bozon, Hudon..

As for Best player available or best potential, it goes hand in hand, and considering the number of players Timmins has drafted that has reached the NHL, I'm guessing it's the same for him.

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06-03-2013, 08:21 AM
  #79
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Originally Posted by OneSharpMarble View Post
I called him average which he is, just because most here wet their pants at the sound of anything involved with the habs I become a "hater".

I also criticised Gainey when he was being called "god" by the vast majority here. You can label me all you like but the truth is staring the team in the face with its lacklustre offensive talent and prospect depth. Either start to draft some skilled forwards or it is time to restructure the scouting department.
But being average isn't about what ''OneSharpMarble'' wish he could have done. It's not because you think our prospect pool is lackluster in offensive talent and depth that it actually makes Timmins average.
What would make him average is how he ranks among his peers. I have a hard time believing there's around 14 teams that have done better than Timmins over the years. You'll have a hard time proving that one.

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Originally Posted by OneSharpMarble View Post
Ya 9 years and top 3 pick and we finally got one. Wow superstar scouting there.
You literally just wrote that we have to START drafting more forwards. Someone shows you that we have, and then you criticize the scouting department.
You really wonder why people view you as a hater after?

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06-03-2013, 08:54 AM
  #80
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Originally Posted by OneSharpMarble View Post
I called him average which he is, just because most here wet their pants at the sound of anything involved with the habs I become a "hater".

You can label me all you like but the truth is staring the team in the face with its lacklustre offensive talent and prospect depth. Either start to draft some skilled forwards or it is time to restructure the scouting department.
I will support this. Trevor Timmins entered his 12th season with the Montreal Canadiens after joining the organization in 2002-03.

For skaters:

Stars?

Subban

Very good?

Max and McDo, both 1st rounders. Very good picks, but so what, lots of teams make great picks in round 1.

Chuckie, a no brainer.

Gally, we will see how long he lasts. Very good pick, I'll give him that.

But: In fact. TT has blown at least three first round picks badly: Kosty, Fischer, and Leblanc.

That is why I do not agree with the TT love, at all.

The rest? Zero, zip, Nada. Nothing. I don't give a **** if he's good at drafting grinders and 3rd line PK specialists. Wow.

I have said this repeatedly about Timmins, and I stand by it.

When he finds a Zetteberg or a Datsyuk, then I'll say he's a draft king. Right now, he is not. He just is not. Get over it.

12 years: Hidden gems picked:

Subby and Gally.

1st round total, disaster busts:

Kosty and Fischer. Possibly Leblanc also. Two, maybe three picks that killed this team.

Timmins BLOWS at first round picks, and he finds very few late round stars. I mean stars, not Tim ****ing Bozon.

And don't blame the GMs. It is TT's job to advise and insist on top picks, and avoid 1st round busts. He did not do that.

No love for TT, at all.

Bergy will know the score on our 2012 and 2013 picks within 2 years. If none of last year's, or this year's picks are becoming special, TT is ****ing long gone. And good riddance. I'm so sick or our endless misses in the draft.


Last edited by bsl: 06-03-2013 at 09:09 AM.
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Old
06-03-2013, 09:12 AM
  #81
onice
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Originally Posted by bsl View Post

That is why I do not agree with the TT love, at all.
If you hate Timmins then you must detest every other scouting staff in the league. I'lla sk you the same thing i asked One Dull Marble. Name 5 teams that have done better than this during the same time period:

03
Andrei K
Lapierre
O'Byrne
Halak

04
Emelin
Grabovsky
Streit

05
Price
Latendresse
D'agostini
Sergei K

06
White

07
McDonagh
Patches
Subban
Webber

I don't want to hear your opinion, I want to see the picks of those 5 teams.

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06-03-2013, 09:18 AM
  #82
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Originally Posted by Habiton View Post
And you don't see how you have a least a little bit of hate towards Timmins?
So what? Is Timmins your buddy or something, or do you care about Habs? We are discussing TT overall performance, and some of us think it is below average, and in the case of Fischer and Kosty, absolutely disastrous. Sorry about that, welcome to a debate board. Useless post.

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06-03-2013, 09:20 AM
  #83
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Originally Posted by onice View Post
If you hate Timmins then you must detest every other scouting staff in the league. I'lla sk you the same thing i asked One Dull Marble. Name 5 teams that have done better than this during the same time period:

03
Andrei K
Lapierre
O'Byrne
Halak

04
Emelin
Grabovsky
Streit

05
Price
Latendresse
D'agostini
Sergei K

06
White

07
McDonagh
Patches
Subban
Webber

I don't want to hear your opinion, I want to see the picks of those 5 teams.
I want to see ****ing Zetterberg or Datsyuk drafted in the 5th round. Sue me.

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06-03-2013, 09:26 AM
  #84
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Originally Posted by bsl View Post
I want to see ****ing Zetterberg or Datsyuk drafted in the 5th round. Sue me.
That was 15 years ago, scouting is a lot better now.

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06-03-2013, 09:38 AM
  #85
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Originally Posted by katatoniak View Post
That was 15 years ago, scouting is a lot better now.
Also, you know...it's an example of one team having done that in the past, as you said, 15 years. Which would suggest to the rational individual that it's the exception, not the norm.

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06-03-2013, 09:49 AM
  #86
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Quote:
Originally Posted by le_sean View Post
What the Habs needed was the 3rd overall pick to get a top end talent. Kings got Doughty, Bruins got Seguin, Hawks got Kane and Toews.

The depth is there, just not the elite level talent. It is very rare to strike gold like the Ducks (Getzlaf and Perry) and Red Wings (Datsyuk and Zetterberg) did.
Getzlaf and Perry were in the 1st round of a very deep draft that we could have had EITHER on our team, but passed for the Belarussian Superstar, AK46.

I don't know what TT's draft record was like before coming into MTL, but he and other GMs in that draft made some big mistakes in their selections while passing on Perry, Richards, Getzlaf just to name a few.

As for Detroit, I don't think it's rare to strike gold TWICE in 1998 and 1999 by getting two "stars" (or a bonafide star and a very good impact player) in the bottom 2 rounds back-to-back. Whoever their European scout was at the time, bravo.

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Originally Posted by 24get View Post
I think NB is spending more time knowing the real value of our players than BG.

But also, we must remember the context when this happened.
BG redid the team in one summer.
Letting go Koivu and given Plek previous season (39 points), he had to get a center.

Who else was he going to give up as a top prospect? PK, MaxPac, Lats, SKost?
For all we know, Fischer may have been offered.

At that time, we barely had a top-6 and our defense was Markov, Hamrlik, Oby and Gorges. We got Gill, Mara and Spacek as UFA.

I do remember the centers available at that time and there was not many. We ended up with Gomez, Plek, Lapierre and Metropolit.

At that time, we let go: Koivu, Tanguay, Kovalev, Lang, Komisarek, Kostopoulos, Begin, etc.

Hindsight is 20/20 but we have to look at the whole picture at that time not now.

The team that BG built was able to get to conference finals (thanks to Halak) which is quite impressive given all the changes that were done.
And Gomez feeding Gionta and Cammy was a part of this run.

If McDonagh is the only impact player that we missed in a decade (2003-2012) is not so bad. Especially given he was traded for a top-6 center.
Maybe I am emotional about this because the PO we had, winning against Washington and Pittsburgh, was so great that it may be worth not having McDonagh.

What do you prefer: McDonagh or the PO run we had that year + Eller?
You can not have both...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Whitesnake View Post
So many things here....

First...he DIDN'T have to get rid of Koivu. Then, putting yourself in a position of not having the upper hand is the WORST you can do as a GM. If the idea was to get rid of Koivu....what do you think if Sather ask for Price, Subban and McDonagh? You do it 'cause you have no other choice? I'm obviously exagerating but you get the idea. Gainey put himself in that situation. As a GM, you need to see things ahead of situations. And if redoing a team means getting this playoff run but then going back to the type of "success" in the playoff we saw since then...nope it's not worth it. Other teams, the real succesful ones didn't put a patch on their team for one year. They slowly but surely build a team that became stronger with years and build it for the playoffs as well. We needed miracles from Halak that year. Yes others have contributed offensively, but when Halak was out of his miracles in his 3rd round...we saw that the great offense was able to do miracles of their own against the great and incredible Leighton, by having 7 goals in 5 games against it. Compared to the 25 goals for by Chicago, a real offensive machine.

But yes, a 3rd round was fun. 1st one in 20 years. Of course it was great. But turning it around like you just did (McDonagh or a PO run and Eller)....how about No playoff run that year but a consistently better REAL contending team after that year with much better moves than what we had at the time? And what does Eller has anything to do with that? Oh because Halak was so great we were able to get good value? Okay...but using that logic...trade Price instead....and get BETTER value. Who would care about Eller...if anything...he could have easily be Eller plus.

This Gainey era was all about patching. I hated Gauthier as well but at the very least, the guy gave us those 2nd rounders that we might be able to make this team a much better team for years to come in one of the best draft since 2003.

Hindisight is 20/20. Thing is NOT in hindisight, people hated the deal the second they realized it was McDonagh going the other way. Geez, I hated it and was probably one of the most reserved, trying to give Gomez his chance to redeem himself and so on...but the incredibly high majority killed this deal when it happened. And seeing that we had to BUY this guy's contract and see how solid McDonagh has become is just proving that people were right indeed.

Funny that you are talking about hindsight yet use it to try to prove a point by saying that we should prefer the 3rd round we got...when the deal was made....we weren't in the 3rd round. So not using hindsight, at the time, and to this day, I would prefer a REAL solid rebuild with playoff performers on a longer run than 1 year.....
Whitesnake, you are 100% right. With regards to Koivu/Pleks BG didn't have to let Koivu go and re-sign Pleks to a 5 year 25 million dollar contract in 2010. But in 2009 he wanted to go with a new direction with the team, some of them were good signings, other not so much, and some terrible acquisitions/management of assets. I think BG realized we have two #2 C basically in Pleks/Koivu that if both stayed would have been better than Gomez and Pleks. But he took a risk with Gomez and it barely paid off. My biggest issue is the fact that he took a risk and gave up a considerable asset plus a roster a player in Higgins to do it while getting a marginal roster player in Tommy Pyatt in return along with Gomer.

With regards to McD or a PO run + Eller, you can't ask that question because you don't even know what the future would hold had we not traded McD and in which case BG probably re-signs Koivu. We still had Halak so he very well could have taken the #1 from Price and could have gone on a PO run. All could haves, but you never know, we COULD HAVE had Eller and McD. So the hypotheticals, keep them somewhat realistic in the sense that hypothetically this could happen, not hypotheticall this or that because for sure this wouldn't of happened if we had that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
The problem with these analyses is that they don't [adequately] account for draft rank.

A pick at 6th overall is much easier than a pick at 18th overall. The batting average analogy to baseball does not work, as in baseball every player faces every kind of pitcher over a full season. In drafting, some batters only go up against the worst pitchers, and some only go up against the best pitchers. Similarly, the difference between 1st and 2nd round is huge, whereas the difference between 4th and 5th round is very small (by comparison). Finally, the concept of a "1st round" selection is misleading, as the difference between 5th and 25th overall is comparable to or larger than the difference between 25th and 199th overall.

Given that this calculation would only take a few hours to do properly, I'm surprised nobody has done it yet. I think there's a mismatch between the people who know statistics and the people who know hockey, and very few really know both. In this case, I have the stats knowledge but not the hockey knowledge to do the calculation properly.

If somebody with good knowledge of players drafted in the past 10 years wants to help me out, we can do the calculation together in a way that makes sense.

I think a good idea would be to take the 2003-2008 drafts, and give every player a rank between 1 and 10 in a manner that tries to be objective. I can then fit the numbers to an exponential model, rather than the usual fictional step-function models.
Agreed. Baseball batting avg doesn't work. Also, the Top 30 in one draft, say 2003 will be much greater than the top 30 for any other draft. Keep that in mind, because for his 1st draft, TT and BG selected the wrong guy at #10 and along with other GMs, passed on Perry, Richards, Getzlaf, Carter i believe too etc.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Whitesnake View Post
To me, Timmins is great. As my avatar states...he's, right now, Habs MVP. No doubt about that. But that's for 2 reasons. He's been doing great things....but it also prooves that nobody else, as of now, as stepped up to be a MVP. Which is also sad...

Now, what I'm expecting from a scouting group is to be able to find us the guy that we can,t have through trades or UFA's. We know that this UFA market is a tough market. You are not able to attract in that market real game changing players for years and years. Prust will be fine....and somehow is able to change our game but that's because we sucked in the department for quite some time. On any other tougher team, Prust just fills a place. Here...he comes as a hero. And our others UFA's.....Cammy, Gionta well...good little players. Except for 1 playoff...they did not were able to change our game and culture. Cammy gave us Bourque, which we hope will be able to do in a regular basis...still to be proven.

And trades well, there are less trades than ever. Thanks to that great salary cap. So the draft it is....and while we were able to provide quantity....we had more trouble with quality, though it's not all black and white. We also were able to find some gems that are no longer with us so that's not a scouting fault. But we have to admit that somehow, Timmins 1st rounders are mostly underwhelming than the rest of his draft. Since 2003, we are still waiting for Price to become a consistent goalie. We hope that MaxPac will become the player he once proved he could become. And we can wait for Tinordi to show us what he's able to do. But that's it. Others are totally unproven, became flops, or have been rather okay. And while people keep saying that we can't do miracles because you don't have regular top 5 players, which is true, Timmins was able to be better with players AFTER his 1st rounders...further from the top 5.

So the pressure is there for our market and based on what Bergevin keeps repeating....OUR key is the draft. If it is, we have to expect a couple of things from this present management. If it's REALLY the case, you have to add more people to the scouting group. DONE. You have to scout everywhere...seems to be DONE. You have to hire some of the best in the business....REMAINS TO BE SEEN. But as a GM, you mostly have to recognize what your team is all about. What I mean is that if you think you stink....go and get more picks for the upcoming draft. Try to trade your players for additional 1st rounders or 2nd rounders. ONLY if you stink. But even if you don't, you still might be able to get rid of some of the players you can get rid of because of the depth you were able to build and get additional draft picks. So that's what I'm expecting from a GM. Like I said before...hated Gauthier but we will be having fun in this upcoming draft because of him. If it against comes to that, Bergevin will need to be as awaken. Now, the idea is that it NEVER comes to that as it will be a proof that we are slowly improving and on our way to become a contender. Teams in our conference have improved and will be building themselves that way. Add Detroit and add a better managed Columbus...and geez, it won't be easy.

But going back to the scouting group, I would be expecting better 1st rounders no matter where we picked. 'Cause it is possible to do as TONS of 2nd rounders have become key players in this league. If those 2nd rounders have become great....it probably means that teams should have picked them in the 1st round instead. I know...it also means that it's a crapshoot. Well teams that are becoming contenders have build with that crapshoot. From Lucic, to Marchand, to Bergeron, Krejci and Co. To Quick, Kopitar and Co, those 2 teams were able to do it differently than Chicago and Pittsburgh. Yet, those latter 2 teams were also able to add a few pieces of their own to make them better. But we all know that it started with Kane, Toews, Crosby and Malkin...that's for sure.
To me, TT is dynamite outside of round #1. Rounds 2-4 is his gold (Subban, Gallagher, Kristo, Lappy, maybe even Lats (but he's getting soft )

Round #1, anyone drafts Chucky at #3, imo Kostitsyn is more of a bust in comparison to all the other players taken after him in rounds 1 and 2. Look at that draft and tell me straight on that AK46 didn't underperform greatly in comparison to his fellow draftees. Chipchura is a fringe regular. Price is a marginally good selection, probably would have gone a few spots lower but they haven't made a GREAT pick for a #5 overall selection yet, but because he's a goalie the time is now to show that his development is done and that he's worthy of a top 5 selection for a goalie. McD, Leblanc, Tinordi, Beaulieu are good draft picks, but again as 1st round selections (12th, 18th, 22nd, 17th), the only one that I would consider as a GREAT pick is Tinordi as he was the lower ranked/drafted player and is above Leblanc in development and might be above Beaulieu in terms of development.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Whitesnake View Post
Solid top 4. How is that overrated? He'd be top 4 here for sure don't worry. Anyway, as far as the subject of this post, Timmins, he drafted McDonagh. Not his fault if he's gone.
IMO, McD would be a top pairing guy on our team. Because NYR had Staal (idk if he'll be back because of that eye injury) and Girardi, McD is the #3/#4 with Del Zotto. A McD-Subban 2007 Draft pairing would be solid as our top pairing with Markov-Emelin #2 pairing. But i'm living in an alternate reality here so let's move on.

No fault on Timmins whatsoever for BG's high risk, low reward return in that trade IMO (idc if Gomez had one 90 pt season, the guy was regressing clearly after signing that lucrative contract).

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06-03-2013, 09:51 AM
  #87
onice
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Originally Posted by bsl View Post
I want to see ****ing Zetterberg or Datsyuk drafted in the 5th round. Sue me.

i want to see bobby Orr, Ken Dryden & Lemieux reborn and on the Habs. Maybe you can sue me too.

Or I can simply call you an unrealistic complainer. You said you think Timmins is a crappy head scout. Good, give me the names of 5 teams that drafted better than Timmins.

Oh and

Halak & Streit in the 9th
Grabovsky & Gallagher in the 5th
Sergei in the 7th

Is not Zetterburg & Datysuk but it's damn impressive.


Last edited by onice: 06-03-2013 at 09:56 AM.
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06-03-2013, 09:52 AM
  #88
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Originally Posted by bsl View Post
I will support this. Trevor Timmins entered his 12th season with the Montreal Canadiens after joining the organization in 2002-03.

For skaters:

Stars?

Subban

Very good?

Max and McDo, both 1st rounders. Very good picks, but so what, lots of teams make great picks in round 1.

Chuckie, a no brainer.

Gally, we will see how long he lasts. Very good pick, I'll give him that.

But: In fact. TT has blown at least three first round picks badly: Kosty, Fischer, and Leblanc.

That is why I do not agree with the TT love, at all.

The rest? Zero, zip, Nada. Nothing. I don't give a **** if he's good at drafting grinders and 3rd line PK specialists. Wow.

I have said this repeatedly about Timmins, and I stand by it.

When he finds a Zetteberg or a Datsyuk, then I'll say he's a draft king. Right now, he is not. He just is not. Get over it.

12 years: Hidden gems picked:

Subby and Gally.

1st round total, disaster busts:

Kosty and Fischer. Possibly Leblanc also. Two, maybe three picks that killed this team.

Timmins BLOWS at first round picks, and he finds very few late round stars. I mean stars, not Tim ****ing Bozon.

And don't blame the GMs. It is TT's job to advise and insist on top picks, and avoid 1st round busts. He did not do that.

No love for TT, at all.

Bergy will know the score on our 2012 and 2013 picks within 2 years. If none of last year's, or this year's picks are becoming special, TT is ****ing long gone. And good riddance. I'm so sick or our endless misses in the draft.
Lol @ blaming Timmins for not landing us late round stars. How exactly do you think it should be easy?
Have you looked throughout the league to see which teams drafted late round stars in the last decade?
Jamie Benn as a 5th rounder? Byfuglien? Brouwer? Versteeg? Are Yandle and Callahan considered later rounders in 4th? If so, then we can give some honorable mention for the S.Kostitsyn, Grabovski and Streit picks.
Pavelski is about the only actual player I'd consider a star picked in the late rounds.
Is that your standard for Stars? If they are, then PK Subban is a lot more than just a Star.

All in all, there's barely any star player chosen in late rounds by any team in the NHL. Go on hockeyDB and check it out for yourself.

As for the disaster busts you mention, I disagree with AK. I think our biggest issue was development with many of our picks over the years.
I obviously agree with Fischer. As for Leblanc, he was picked during a time when our organization was at the peak of criticism for not having any locals, and the draft was in Mtl. It seemed like a very big coincidence that we ended up drafting a french centerman. I don't pin this pick on Timmins, I'm pretty sure that was a managerial decision.

But again, criticizing him because you feel he didn't pick away enough gems is one thing, saying he's average or mediocre is another.

Zetterberg and Datsyuk were drafted 14 and 15years ago, and they are massive exceptions. Having them as a standard is pretty unrealistic. No wonder you're not satisfied.

As I said in a previous post, this shouldn't be about what you wish for. It's about how Timmins does compared to his peers and you'll have a hard time proving he's done a poor job compared to the rest especially considering the positions he's picked at.


Last edited by Kriss E: 06-03-2013 at 10:00 AM.
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06-03-2013, 09:57 AM
  #89
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The only real problem I have with our drafting is we take headcases like Archambault, Grabovski and Sergei then trade them away because we don't have good management/personnel to deal with them. Why do we take a chance on kids with known attitude problems if we're not going to give them a coach/personnel who are trying to help them succeed? We put a lot of those types of players in a position to fail right out of the gate and a lot of them become good players elsewhere. I feel like it's counterproductive to continuously draft these players if we're not going to surround them with positivity.

Our drafting would look even better if we didn't get burned multiple times by European guys deciding not to come over or coming over and not being given a chance. Korneyev in particular has always been better than Emelin. Perezhogin should have been given a bigger chance. Imagine how good Emelin could be by now if he came over after three years pre-face injury instead of seven with a metal face.

Also imagine if we didn't have to take a QMJHL guy every year just to avoid media backlash even though it's clearly inferior development wise to the OHL and WHL(and possibly the USHL at this point). The 2013 draft is the first time in decades where the Q has more than a handful good prospects going in.
What are you basing this on? Our regressed player this season only in LL? How about our progressing Nathan Beaulieu, the LL last year that was in the NHL for multiple games (9+) and don't forget the two of the top 3 picks of this year's draft are from the Q, not to mention that their team won the Memorial Cup.

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06-03-2013, 10:05 AM
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What are you basing this on? Our regressed player this season only in LL? How about our progressing Nathan Beaulieu, the LL last year that was in the NHL for multiple games (9+) and don't forget the two of the top 3 picks of this year's draft are from the Q, not to mention that their team won the Memorial Cup.
I'm basing it on facts. Go through the past 10 drafts yourself. The Q has been producing significantly less prospects than the other leagues. Even less become NHLers.

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06-03-2013, 10:09 AM
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Originally Posted by Ezpz View Post
The only real problem I have with our drafting is we take headcases like Archambault, Grabovski and Sergei then trade them away because we don't have good management/personnel to deal with them. Why do we take a chance on kids with known attitude problems if we're not going to give them a coach/personnel who are trying to help them succeed? We put a lot of those types of players in a position to fail right out of the gate and a lot of them become good players elsewhere. I feel like it's counterproductive to continuously draft these players if we're not going to surround them with positivity.

Our drafting would look even better if we didn't get burned multiple times by European guys deciding not to come over or coming over and not being given a chance. Korneyev in particular has always been better than Emelin. Perezhogin should have been given a bigger chance. Imagine how good Emelin could be by now if he came over after three years pre-face injury instead of seven with a metal face.

Also imagine if we didn't have to take a QMJHL guy every year just to avoid media backlash even though it's clearly inferior development wise to the OHL and WHL(and possibly the USHL at this point). The 2013 draft is the first time in decades where the Q has more than a handful good prospects going in.
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I'm basing it on facts. Go through the past 10 drafts yourself. The Q has been producing significantly less prospects than the other leagues. Even less become NHLers.
I just went through 3 first rounds from 03-05. Yeah you're right. But there are some that are great (Crosby, Bergeron, Mackinnon, Drouin, etc.) you just have to be lucky or find them. TT is capable of doing such...

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06-03-2013, 10:10 AM
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Getzlaf and Perry were in the 1st round of a very deep draft that we could have had EITHER on our team, but passed for the Belarussian Superstar, AK46.
I'm still holding some hatred towards TT for this.

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06-03-2013, 10:17 AM
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I'm still holding some hatred towards TT for this.
Do you know what his draft history was like BEFORE coming to MTL? Who was he a scout for? I think this was all BG's decision I think but it could have well been TT's rookie mistake in his first year as Director of Amateur Scouting.

I do too, but lots of teams passed on Perry, Richards, Getzlaf and went with "busts like AK46. Weber and Bergeron were 2nd rounders that year...

My problem is how do you pass on (at the time) 2 6'0+ centres for a 6'0 russian winger that didn't play in a nearly as high quality junior league as Getzlaf or Carter. Sad really...

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06-03-2013, 10:42 AM
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I just went through 3 first rounds from 03-05. Yeah you're right. But there are some that are great (Crosby, Bergeron, Mackinnon, Drouin, etc.) you just have to be lucky or find them. TT is capable of doing such...
Crosby, MacKinnon and Drouin are all #1 overall caliber picks. You can't ''find'' them. You need to have the top pick overall or at the very least a top 3 in Drouin's case.
Bergeron was a great pick, like we did with Subban (even better with PK), but you can't find these gems every year, not even every second year. That's just not a realistic expectation.

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06-03-2013, 10:47 AM
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My problem is how do you pass on (at the time) 2 6'0+ centres for a 6'0 russian winger that didn't play in a nearly as high quality junior league as Getzlaf or Carter. Sad really...
AK was thought to be a top 5 pick at the time. He fell due to his epilepsy issue. So when they saw he was available, they went for him. It was a gamble.
That being said, I still think AK could have been developed better. We struggled developing many of our prospects and they were poorly surrounded.

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06-03-2013, 10:50 AM
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Originally Posted by dmanfish90 View Post
Do you know what his draft history was like BEFORE coming to MTL? Who was he a scout for? I think this was all BG's decision I think but it could have well been TT's rookie mistake in his first year as Director of Amateur Scouting.

I do too, but lots of teams passed on Perry, Richards, Getzlaf and went with "busts like AK46. Weber and Bergeron were 2nd rounders that year...

My problem is how do you pass on (at the time) 2 6'0+ centres for a 6'0 russian winger that didn't play in a nearly as high quality junior league as Getzlaf or Carter. Sad really...
We drafted a 6+ centre a year after and he didn't really became a force in the league. Players all have weaknesses in their draft year and Perry and Getzlaf were not sure fire superstar...


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06-03-2013, 11:02 AM
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Timmins work has been largely traded away in very disadvantaged circumstances. There was also some years where picks were traded away from underneath him.

It will be exciting to see Trevor's work under a GM who completely understands that drafting and development forms the lifeblood of the team. I don't see any Alex Tanguay, Robert Lang or Matthew Schneider trades in this administration's future and that will mean more picks and more opportunities for Trevor.

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06-03-2013, 11:03 AM
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Crosby, MacKinnon and Drouin are all #1 overall caliber picks. You can't ''find'' them. You need to have the top pick overall or at the very least a top 3 in Drouin's case.
Bergeron was a great pick, like we did with Subban (even better with PK), but you can't find these gems every year, not even every second year. That's just not a realistic expectation.
Kris Letang (3rd round), Claude Giroux (22nd overall), Bergeron (2nd round). These are stars btw and these you have to find/get lucky. I saw multiple NHL regulars in these rounds from:

Lapierre, Bourdon (before his passing), M-E Vlasic, Lats, M.A. Gragnani, Bartulis (sort of regular, don't think so anymore), Jonathan Bernier, Marchand, Voracek, Angelo Esposito?, David Perron, T.J. Brennan?, Jake Allen, Luke Adam, Patrice Cormier?, Scandella, M.A. Bourdon?, Kulikov, Despres, Huberdeau, Couturier, are all top 3 rounds picks from the Q from the past 10 drafts that are regular NHLers that aren't All-Stars. Also add the fact that there aren't many selections from the Q in the top 3 rounds from the past 10 drafts in general makes the percentage, IMO, probably about the same for other leagues, there's just MORE talent in other leagues which I will agree to.

Also players that will be NHL regulars still in development/will be drafted in 2013: Beaulieu, XO, Mackinnon, Drouin (plus others from the 2013 draft).

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06-03-2013, 11:12 AM
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I compare Timmins to a Baseball player who hits 1st (maybe like Suzuki).....high hitting %, but no home run and not a lot points produced.
Id add Halak as a HOME RUN... especially if we would be in 2010!!!!!! you can also add Streit drafted in the 7th or 8th round... SK was a late pick too...

biggest HR might be Lundqvist by the Rangers with the 205th pick in 2001!

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06-03-2013, 11:38 AM
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I think it's fair for people to criticize Timmins. I mean, his first rounders aren't stellar. We had and still have all the trouble in the world to draft a big centerman...or powerforward...or even bigger and grittier guy to play in our bottom 6....Having said that, you still look around and find that he's one of the best in the business. No matter how he struggles for some things. So I believe actually that both camps can agree on this. One doesn't exclude the other...he can have his own bad moves...but still be one of the best.

For people though who keeps wondering who else is doing great...well Boston isn't too shabby. Wings as well. You can say that Chicago aside from their top players did fill out their lineup with nice additions. Same for LA.

We've got a good one in our hands. Great to see that the scouting team is getting bigger. Let's hope that bigger means better. But one thing I KNOW for sure. We will really learn how great he was the day he leaves....THAT you can be sure of.

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