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2013 Draft Thread IV–June 30 3pm–8 16 38 52 69 129 130 143 159 189–Draft Primer in OP

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06-09-2013, 12:08 PM
  #276
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Originally Posted by Chainshot View Post
Wait, so the arguement is rather than taking BPA and improving a roster position that Buffalo is going to NOT select a certain type of player simply to protect preceived trade value of existing players? Uh-huh. Or that it might eventually put pressure on these guys to succeed? That tends to be what nearly every team wants

McNabb is coming off a serious knee injury. Myers is a mess who may need to be dealt to finally start straightening himself out. Ruhwedel -- small sample size and getting playing time due to a rash of injuries isn't exactly turning this guy out as a top-4 candidate. Schiestel, Crawford, Biega -- all stalled. That leaves McCabe as the only guy not pro with any sort of top-4 upside and he's already got enough durability questions that he's not a sure thing.

This isn't a good team right now. Focusing in on drafting purely positionally will not serve them in the longer term. It's how they wound up with slugs like Joel Savage (had to get tougher!) or Denis Tsygurov (need d-help now!). They're in the early stages of a long-term build, they need to cast as wide and as deep a net as possible for all positional players, not JUST "oh, he's a wing, we need those".
Completely agree with all of that.

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The teams weakest area by far is winger. Stop saying we can just move a center to winger...not everyone can easily flip flop positions. In terms of young wingers they have Armia, Foligno, Enns, and Girgensons.
I just can't take anyone advocating for intentionally drafting wingers seriously. Any forward with even a shred of defensive acumen plays center in junior. Centers covert to wing in the NHL but not vice versa. When drafting you target Cs and Ds and only selects W when the value gets out of hand.

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06-09-2013, 12:57 PM
  #277
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Originally Posted by SoFFacet View Post
Completely agree with all of that.



I just can't take anyone advocating for intentionally drafting wingers seriously. Any forward with even a shred of defensive acumen plays center in junior. Centers covert to wing in the NHL but not vice versa. When drafting you target Cs and Ds and only selects W when the value gets out of hand.


I'm not saying intentionally drafting wingers....I don't want then picking 2 Dmen.

I want them to move up in the draft to get one of the forwards. Rhe only way a forward falls to them is if a team ahead of them picks a 2nd Dmen.....Edmonton and Carolina could do this.

Given this draft appears to have about 15 players that can go anywhere from 13-27 depending on which mock you read...them drafting a Dmen there will be highly questionable if they picked a Dman earlier.

As I also stated its easier to find a top 4 Dman in the 2nd round than finding a top 6 forward.

Outside of someone falling like Grigs did, you take what you need.

I am also not one advocate these crazy overpaying deals to move up in the draft. Them moving up to 4-7 is reasonable and realistic.

I may not have as much of an issue with 2 Dmen if they deal Vanek, Miller, and Stafford before the draft and bring in young forwards along with other picks.

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06-09-2013, 01:03 PM
  #278
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Originally Posted by Djp View Post
I'm not saying intentionally drafting wingers....I don't want then picking 2 Dmen.

I want them to move up in the draft to get one of the forwards. Rhe only way a forward falls to them is if a team ahead of them picks a 2nd Dmen.....Edmonton and Carolina could do this.

Given this draft appears to have about 15 players that can go anywhere from 13-27 depending on which mock you read...them drafting a Dmen there will be highly questionable if they picked a Dman earlier.

As I also stated its easier to find a top 4 Dman in the 2nd round than finding a top 6 forward.

Outside of someone falling like Grigs did, you take what you need.

I am also not one advocate these crazy overpaying deals to move up in the draft. Them moving up to 4-7 is reasonable and realistic.

I may not have as much of an issue with 2 Dmen if they deal Vanek, Miller, and Stafford before the draft and bring in young forwards along with other picks.
The problem with "drafting what you need" is that you just never really know what you need. We can look at our pipeline now but we don't know how it turns out. You can't really use the current roster either because who knows what it's like in 3 years (when most prospects start trickling in the league) much less 5. This isn't the NFL where you draft a guy who's 22 and expect him to start when the season opens up.

What's really the difference between drafting D-D-F rather than D-F-D, for example? Not likely much. You go with the best players, period. If Zadorov is there at 16 and he's clearly the best prospect (which will likely be the subject of debate) then you take him, regardless of who you got at 8 and regardless of anything else.

We need forward prospects, sure, but we also need defensive prospects. We need Seth Jones as much as we need Drouin, even though we won't be selecting either unfortunately. We need a guy like Zadorov or Pulock as much as we need a guy like Domi or Lazar, however. Or Ristolainen as much as we need Lindholm.

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06-09-2013, 01:14 PM
  #279
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Originally Posted by Djp View Post
I'm not saying intentionally drafting wingers....I don't want then picking 2 Dmen.
In the text I quoted you are in fact advocating for wingers.

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As I also stated its easier to find a top 4 Dman in the 2nd round than finding a top 6 forward.
If that's true in general its certainly not true of Regier. As I said before the only Dmen he's picked in the last 7-8 years that have actually materialized into top-4 dmen have been 1st rounders. And if this draft is so deep that there are "1st-rounders" available in the 2nd round, what's the harm in D-D-F?

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Outside of someone falling like Grigs did, you take what you need.
Please look into your crystal ball and tell us what our team 3-4 years from now will need.

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06-09-2013, 01:53 PM
  #280
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I have to admit that I wouldn't be too happy if we went with two D in the first as well, but that's just a subjective feeling that is not really based on any rational arguments . You can never go wrong with a good Defenseman and this team certainly doesn't have an abundance of high-tier defensive prospects, so two bluechip-blueliners would help us immensely. I would still like it a little more if we got a Forward out of the First Round though, as long as we don't reach for one. Give two of Ristolainen/Zadorov/Nurse/Morrissey/Santini and maybe Pulock, and I'll still consider it a good draft.

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06-09-2013, 01:54 PM
  #281
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Teams draft on need. Pure BPA is a myth.

Q: Who knows who the BPA is between the 15 and 25 pick?
A: We all will.......in 20 years.

That is where drafting by need comes in: 20 players are bunched together as a possible BPA. At that point you take a player at a postion you need.

Two examples:

1. Sabres brass said they were weak at center. 2012 they selected two centers in the 1st round. Trading up to get Girgensons.
2. Islanders organizational weakness at D. 2012 used all 7 of their picks to select D.

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06-09-2013, 02:21 PM
  #282
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jacob582 View Post
Teams draft on need. Pure BPA is a myth.

Q: Who knows who the BPA is between the 15 and 25 pick?
A: We all will.......in 20 years.

That is where drafting by need comes in: 20 players are bunched together as a possible BPA. At that point you take a player at a postion you need.

Two examples:

1. Sabres brass said they were weak at center. 2012 they selected two centers in the 1st round. Trading up to get Girgensons.
2. Islanders organizational weakness at D. 2012 used all 7 of their picks to select D.
True. But the thing is that we don't have a distinct organisational need at the moment that surpasses all others, at least that's how I see it.

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06-09-2013, 02:34 PM
  #283
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We have some good D-men prospects, which is good.

But there are 7-8 spots on the team for D-men. So even if they all pan out, there is still room for another young D-man or two.

That's why need makes less sense. Depth is never a bad thing, especially since the depth plays quite a bit in this league. It also allows the prospects that need more time to not be rushed.

If the argument is "I think that this forward will be better than this D-man", then choosing a forward makes sense. But if it's "we need x more than y", that simply isn't true...we need BOTH x and y.

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06-09-2013, 02:37 PM
  #284
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jacob582 View Post
Teams draft on need. Pure BPA is a myth.

Q: Who knows who the BPA is between the 15 and 25 pick?
A: We all will.......in 20 years.

That is where drafting by need comes in: 20 players are bunched together as a possible BPA. At that point you take a player at a postion you need.

Two examples:

1. Sabres brass said they were weak at center. 2012 they selected two centers in the 1st round. Trading up to get Girgensons.
2. Islanders organizational weakness at D. 2012 used all 7 of their picks to select D.
The Sabres example doesn't prove anything, you could easily say Grigs and Girgs were the best two players on the board at 12 and 14. How many times have you heard someone say "This guy was too good to pass up" when they interview people at the draft? I know Devine said that in regards to Pysyk. You say we don't know who BPA is but you don't acknowledge the fact that you don't know what our team needs will be in 3 years. You have no idea how your current pipeline will turn out. You take the players who are highest on your board, period.

Edit: What LDS said.

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06-09-2013, 03:02 PM
  #285
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Originally Posted by thefifagod View Post
The Sabres example doesn't prove anything, you could easily say Grigs and Girgs were the best two players on the board at 12 and 14. How many times have you heard someone say "This guy was too good to pass up" when they interview people at the draft? I know Devine said that in regards to Pysyk. You say we don't know who BPA is but you don't acknowledge the fact that you don't know what our team needs will be in 3 years. You have no idea how your current pipeline will turn out. You take the players who are highest on your board, period.

Edit: What LDS said.

Yes, teams follow their boards. Just saying that position is one of the factors they take into account when players are close.

So how is a team able to decide who the BPA out of 17 and 18 year olds, but they have no idea how the current pipeline will turn out. They have some idea. The organization absolutely projects what their team need will need in 3 years and how their prospects are developing.

Corey Pronman‏@coreypronman5 Jun
"Reminder: On draft day almost every team will have their 1st rounder rated higher than they were selected. Everybody got draft steals."


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06-09-2013, 03:19 PM
  #286
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The more video I see of Darnell Nurse, the more I think the Sabres are gonna have him near the top of their draft board. He looks like a great physical presence to me, and I think he could motivate Myers to step up his game too. He would it in perfectly with the likes of Ott, Tropp, Scott, Weber, Gerbe, Kaleta, etc.

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06-09-2013, 03:32 PM
  #287
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Draft is a massive crapshoot, you draft who you think will fit your organizational goals. If being a solid defensive team is what you want you draft dmen and two way forwards, you want to be a run and gun you draft snipers and puck movers, you find the team idenity and that's where you will find your draft dircetion. I think darcy wants to get bigger and faster and with that dynamic you select one high risk sniper (Burakowsky) and one physical good first pass defensemen (Risto). That's how i see it happening. I don't think lindholm will fall to us .. I see Phoenix trading 12 and Yandle to Carolina, Calgary, Edmonton for their respective pick and blue chip prospect so they can get lindholm/barkov/monahan.

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06-09-2013, 03:50 PM
  #288
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Yes, position is a consideration but it is not the ONLY consideration when this team is making their draft board. Heck, their best defense prospect in McCabe was widely panned by posters on draft day because they were focused on need. He looks like a stud now, someone long-term who they simply did not have in their stable last year at this time: mobile, 2-way, savvy, and hard to play against. But he was so high on their board, they took him. Same thing the year they took Pysyk when they NEEDED forwards. They have forwards, Pysyk's looking like a smooth RD top 4 potential after just one pro season.

BPA this year.

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06-09-2013, 04:03 PM
  #289
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jacob582 View Post
Teams draft on need. Pure BPA is a myth.

Q: Who knows who the BPA is between the 15 and 25 pick?
A: We all will.......in 20 years.

That is where drafting by need comes in: 20 players are bunched together as a possible BPA. At that point you take a player at a postion you need.

Two examples:

1. Sabres brass said they were weak at center. 2012 they selected two centers in the 1st round. Trading up to get Girgensons.
2. Islanders organizational weakness at D. 2012 used all 7 of their picks to select D.
No organization is going to have 20 players bunched together on their draft board. They might have 2 or 3 guys considered equal at which point the tie-breaker is other stuff like organizational need or skill preference. That doesn't mean they don't go BPA.

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06-09-2013, 07:50 PM
  #290
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Originally Posted by Rob Paxon View Post
No organization is going to have 20 players bunched together on their draft board. They might have 2 or 3 guys considered equal at which point the tie-breaker is other stuff like organizational need or skill preference. That doesn't mean they don't go BPA.

Certainly, Kevin Devine of the Sabres feels players are bunched up. Especially in this draft.

Devine: "....anybody in the top 45 usually has a real good chance to play in the NHL, but a lot of these players are very close. ....player at 20 may be just as good as a player at 11."

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06-09-2013, 08:12 PM
  #291
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Originally Posted by Jacob582 View Post
Certainly, Kevin Devine of the Sabres feels players are bunched up. Especially in this draft.

Devine: "....anybody in the top 45 usually has a real good chance to play in the NHL, but a lot of these players are very close. ....player at 20 may be just as good as a player at 11."
That doesn't mean they have 20 guys all ranked the same. That's not how it is done.

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06-09-2013, 08:16 PM
  #292
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That doesn't mean they have 20 guys all ranked the same. That's not how it is done.
Yep, I agree.

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06-10-2013, 08:05 AM
  #293
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Got to put faith in the scouts and draft the best player available. If down the line you end up with a glut of talent in one position then you can trade to meet the immediate needs. The NHL is not for addressing immediate needs. In this case, the better play you have, the better player you can get in return. I don't know what the average time for a draftee to become a regular, but it's got to be in the 3-4 year range.

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06-10-2013, 08:35 AM
  #294
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I don't care what position the guys they draft play.

Let's just get some guys that are mentally and physically tough and want to win really bad.

Basically, let's get some guys that can grow bad*** playoff beards.


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06-10-2013, 08:42 AM
  #295
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sometimes you draft purely BPA, and sometimes you draft for need... it depends on the state of your organization

the end

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06-10-2013, 12:50 PM
  #296
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Great debate guys, enjoyed reading it.

I would add to my original point - unless its an absolutely can't miss player, I prefer using top picks on forwards regardless of the teams situation.

Add that to the fact that I think 3-5 years down the line we're stronger at the back as well.... its an easy one for me.

I understand the whole BPA thing, and to be honest would not mind one of each if they were the right pick at the right time - but going D/D would annoy me so much given the potential depth and quality of the first round and a bit of this draft.

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06-10-2013, 03:45 PM
  #297
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One guy that really intrigues me is Anthony Mantha.

I know he's one of the oldest first timers this year. I know there are work ethic and effort questions.

But, the kid scored 50 goals in the Q this year.

And he's the only draft eligible CHLer to hit the 50 goal mark this season.

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06-10-2013, 03:52 PM
  #298
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Originally Posted by LegomyLeggio View Post
One guy that really intrigues me is Anthony Mantha.

I know he's one of the oldest first timers this year. I know there are work ethic and effort questions.

But, the kid scored 50 goals in the Q this year.

And he's the only draft eligible CHLer to hit the 50 goal mark this season.
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06-10-2013, 07:50 PM
  #299
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Originally Posted by LegomyLeggio View Post
One guy that really intrigues me is Anthony Mantha.

I know he's one of the oldest first timers this year. I know there are work ethic and effort questions.

But, the kid scored 50 goals in the Q this year.

And he's the only draft eligible CHLer to hit the 50 goal mark this season.
I think you mentioned it. The age and the work ethic. If you give a lot of these guys another 'hockey' year you'd see them hit 50 goals.

But, I agree. I'm surprised you don't hear a bit more about him.

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06-11-2013, 07:42 AM
  #300
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Originally Posted by ottsabrefan View Post
I think you mentioned it. The age and the work ethic. If you give a lot of these guys another 'hockey' year you'd see them hit 50 goals.

But, I agree. I'm surprised you don't hear a bit more about him.
Not really.

Reid Boucher & Vincent Trocheck were the only OHLers to pot 50 this season.

Mantha was the only QMJHLer to pot 50.

And nobody hit the 50 goal mark in the WHL.

Mantha was tied for second in regular season goals amongst all the players in the entire CHL this season. I don't care if he is the oldest first time draft eligible player this year. That is impressive how ever you qualify it.

Plus, it's not like he had a super amazing highly touted linemate feeding him, either.

Anton Zlobin led the team in scoring, but he was a 6th round pick last year. It's not like he had Grigorenko feeding him....

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