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The Luongo Thread: Part Eleventy

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Old
06-03-2013, 09:50 PM
  #1
Nuckles
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The Luongo Thread: Part Eleventy

Last thread: http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh....php?t=1421117

Continue...and please end soon..

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06-03-2013, 09:53 PM
  #2
Tiranis
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Originally Posted by Verviticus View Post
a better way to compile this would be to look at the last four years of the 13th, 14th, 15th, 16th, and 17th.

Zack Kassian
Dmitri Kulikov
Peter Holland
Nick Leddy
David Rundblad
Brandon Gormley
Jaden Schwartz
Derek Forbort
Vladimir Tarasenko
Joey Hishon
Duncan Siemens
Ryan Murphy
Sven Baertschi
Jamie Oleksiak
J.T. Miller
Radek Faksa ----- (Colten Teubert)
Zemgus Girgensons ----- (Zach Boychuk)
Cody Ceci ----- (Erik Karlsson)
Tom Wilson ----- (Joe Colborne)
Tomas Hertl ----- (Jake Gardiner)

you could leave out 2012 if you think those five are too uncertain - see (players)

id say it seems more reasonable that a 15th this year is closer in value (in that draft picks are more valuable because scouting has improved at the top level) to a 13th in 2010 than it is a 15th in 1997
Still a whole lot of mediocre players who I wouldn't give up that much money for.

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Old
06-03-2013, 09:55 PM
  #3
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Still a whole lot of mediocre players who I wouldn't give up that much money for.
i havent thought enough about it, but if it was announced that the canucks acquired and bought out dipietro for that pick, i dont think i could be critical. it's not my money, my reaction would probably be "oh thank god our owner is crazy in a good way", or something

in my mind i think its more of "a bunch of players that i wouldn't expect an owner to give that much money for" but i can't really observe it as a hockey trade

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Old
06-03-2013, 09:56 PM
  #4
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Originally Posted by Nuckles37 View Post
Last thread: http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh....php?t=1421117

Continue...and please end soon..
Nope.

This is going to twelveteen.

You know it. I know it.

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06-03-2013, 09:57 PM
  #5
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Still a whole lot of mediocre players who I wouldn't give up that much money for.
Draft picks are always over rated because people love the "mystery box" nature of them. The only picks who have a really good chance of becoming impactful NHLers is 1-5. After that, its a crapshoot.

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06-03-2013, 09:58 PM
  #6
Tiranis
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Originally Posted by Verviticus View Post
i havent thought enough about it, but if it was announced that the canucks acquired and bought out dipietro for that pick, i dont think i could be critical. it's not my money, my reaction would probably be "oh thank god our owner is crazy in a good way", or something

in my mind i think its more of "a bunch of players that i wouldn't expect an owner to give that much money for" but i can't really observe it as a hockey trade
I meant if I were in Aquilini's shoes. As a fan, I would obviously welcome it.

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Old
06-03-2013, 09:59 PM
  #7
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Originally Posted by Nuckles37 View Post
Last thread: http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh....php?t=1421117

Continue...and please end soon..
You're joking right? You thought CoHo and Ehrhoff were bad, there will be "Luongo trade discussion" threads on this board for perpetuity. :|

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Old
06-03-2013, 09:59 PM
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The Luongo deal strikes me as something typical of transplanted Italians, where one Italian homie gives special treatment to another Italian just because he's Italian.

I can't tell you how many ****** business contacts my Grandfather kept just because they were also Italian. He expected my mom to take us to every new Italian dentist, doctor, whatever he found (wanting us to drop our current doctor, etc) and they were almost slimy and creepy.





Also, if we're going to try and buy a 1st, I'd rather go after Tampa's. Though if you though buying DiP was steep, look at Vinny's. Damn.

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06-03-2013, 09:59 PM
  #9
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Draft picks are always over rated because people love the "mystery box" nature of them. The only picks who have a really good chance of becoming impactful NHLers is 1-5. After that, its a crapshoot.
draft picks are underrated by people who think they're overrated because frequently the people that overrate them are general managers. im happy with the value of a 15th overall not because of the 18 year old player it can become but rather the value it implies on the trade market

but yes people do think of draft picks as a bigger return than they should be if you use them to pick players

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06-03-2013, 10:00 PM
  #10
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I meant if I were in Aquilini's shoes.
If I was in Aquilini's shoes I wouldn't be on HF boards...I'd be swimming in a pool of money.

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06-03-2013, 10:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Verviticus View Post
i havent thought enough about it, but if it was announced that the canucks acquired and bought out dipietro for that pick, i dont think i could be critical. it's not my money, my reaction would probably be "oh thank god our owner is crazy in a good way", or something

in my mind i think its more of "a bunch of players that i wouldn't expect an owner to give that much money for" but i can't really observe it as a hockey trade
Even though I think it's completely unrealistic to expect the owner to put up money for buyouts, I do want to point out that buyouts or not, ticket prices will never go down. So I guess it's our money either way.

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06-03-2013, 10:01 PM
  #12
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I meant if I were in Aquilini's shoes. As a fan, I would obviously welcome it.
it would be too much effort for me to do now but i wonder how many players in the league i would expect an owner (with the surplus cash) to pay $24m for

any of the obviously elite players for sure - crosby ovie malkin stamkos datsyuk sedin toews (and others that im likely missing, please dont argue about who i think is elite its not the point) - but beyond that? would you expect an owner to pay $24m for say, dustin brown? ryan kesler?

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06-03-2013, 10:03 PM
  #13
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Even though I think it's completely unrealistic to expect the owner to put up money for buyouts
there's 'expect' - i demand you dump this money in, and there's 'expect' - this would be a reasonable purchase. the first one isnt fair but the second one is a fair speculation

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06-03-2013, 10:03 PM
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Originally Posted by Verviticus View Post
a better way to compile this would be to look at the last four years of the 13th, 14th, 15th, 16th, and 17th.
[snip list]
you could leave out 2012 if you think those five are too uncertain - see (players)

id say it seems more reasonable that a 15th this year is closer in value (in that draft picks are more valuable because scouting has improved at the top level) to a 13th in 2010 than it is a 15th in 1997
People said the scouting in 2004 was better than 1999. In 1999 it was better than 1991. Apart from the Russian issues around the early 90s, there isn't much excuse. It's pretty steady string of ordinary players.

The problem with using the last 4 drafts is that you get a false sense of security because those picks are still hyped up by draft position and scouting reports. You think back over that 20 year list I provided and almost all those #15 picks seemed great for a few years after the draft. It's only when they have had time to disappoint you realise what you have.

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06-03-2013, 10:03 PM
  #15
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If I was in Aquilini's shoes I wouldn't be on HF boards...I'd be swimming in a pool of money.
It's dangerous to swim with shoes on.

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06-03-2013, 10:05 PM
  #16
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It's dangerous to swim with shoes on.
I'd be able to afford to have a lifeguard on duty 24/7.

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06-03-2013, 10:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Verviticus View Post
it would be too much effort for me to do now but i wonder how many players in the league i would expect an owner (with the surplus cash) to pay $24m for

any of the obviously elite players for sure - crosby ovie malkin stamkos datsyuk sedin toews (and others that im likely missing, please dont argue about who i think is elite its not the point) - but beyond that? would you expect an owner to pay $24m for say, dustin brown? ryan kesler?
Can't imagine any owner would when it comes to Brown or Kesler. Although perhaps someone like Pegula who wants to make a splash and is more concerned about the hockey side than the business side of it?

The worst player I would probably give up that money for is Hall... which isn't saying much since he's a recent 1st overall that looks like a career PPG player.

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Old
06-03-2013, 10:06 PM
  #18
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there's 'expect' - i demand you dump this money in, and there's 'expect' - this would be a reasonable purchase. the first one isnt fair but the second one is a fair speculation
The problem is that I don't think there are a lot of players worth paying $24M for, deferred or not if it is outside the course of your normal salary costs. So either definition doesn't work well for me.

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06-03-2013, 10:12 PM
  #19
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The problem is that I don't think there are a lot of players worth paying $24M for, deferred or not if it is outside the course of your normal salary costs. So either definition doesn't work well for me.
That's true. Think of it another way... what would it be worth to your franchise to get the final piece of the puzzle? That's what makes GM's overpay at the deadline, that's what might motivate Aquaman to make this move. The best thing about this move is that it doesn't come with the long term effect of trading picks away.

How much does it mean to the Canucks in terms of franchise value to win a Stanley Cup? Me thinks a lot more than 24m.

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Old
06-03-2013, 10:33 PM
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remember when we sent SOB to nashville to sabotage them? same thing right now with bones in TB. by mid-november lindback or bishop or whoever their goalie is will be out of the league and yzerman will be begging us for luongo.

IMGIT

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06-03-2013, 10:39 PM
  #21
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We're going to find out how big Aquilini's balls are pretty soon, I guess.

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06-03-2013, 10:43 PM
  #22
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I'd be able to afford to have a lifeguard on duty 24/7.
Any idea how much damage you could do belly flopping on dimes (and as everyone knows dimes are the most fluid-like of all the coins, toonies and loonies could flat out kill you.....and don't even get me started on gold bullion)?

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06-03-2013, 10:52 PM
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Still a whole lot of mediocre players who I wouldn't give up that much money for.
I saw only one player on that list with star potential. 1/16. Not good odds.

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06-03-2013, 10:59 PM
  #24
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If I was in Aquilini's shoes I wouldn't be on HF boards...I'd be swimming in a pool of money.

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Old
06-03-2013, 11:33 PM
  #25
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The problem with using the last 4 drafts is that you get a false sense of security because those picks are still hyped up by draft position and scouting reports. You think back over that 20 year list I provided and almost all those #15 picks seemed great for a few years after the draft. It's only when they have had time to disappoint you realise what you have.
this isnt actually a problem - the hype around these players is a thing that can be leveraged into real assets that is bundled in the assumed value of a #15 pick. its only a problem if there's a condition that you must keep the player picked for n years. this doesn't exist

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