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Paul Kariya HOF?

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Old
06-05-2013, 01:53 PM
  #1
Dutchess
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Paul Kariya HOF?

Was just flipping through some 90s cards and after seeing him quite a bit wondered if he's a HOFer?

989GP, 402G, 989 PTS, 7 All-Star Games, 96 & 97 Lady Byng, All-Rookie Team, 3x First Team All-Star, 2x Second Team All-Star, 2002 Gold Medal

He was one of the 90s better scorers from 1995/96 on but kind of started to decline after leaving Anaheim. I say no but I think he does get in. Thoughts?

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06-05-2013, 02:45 PM
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vadim sharifijanov
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my memory of this thread isn't that clear, but i think the consensus was probably not-- http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh....php?t=1225505

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06-05-2013, 02:50 PM
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Nalens Oga
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He'll get in eventually but he'll have to wait for some of the old geezers to be replaced by old geezers who covered or played hockey during the 90s before he gets recognized I think. One of the best forwards of the 90s = automatic induction imo.

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06-05-2013, 02:56 PM
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Nah he's a cut below, never had enough great seasons, only played 46 playoff games (not all his fault but still...) spent too much of his career on anonymous Western Franchises, Ducks, Blues etc) just a cut below.

I think if he were sitting at 450-475 goals and 1100 pts, we could have a discussion.

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06-05-2013, 03:34 PM
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Interesting question. I'm thinking not, some of it for reasons out of his control, unfortunately. If not for injuries and for a steady decline in play after leaving the Ducks (save two productive seasons in Nashville) he'd be an easy choice

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06-05-2013, 03:35 PM
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Just had a comparable look vs. Lindros and my view on Eric is that he should get in, just like Neely. But i'm fully aware that his resumé is right above the bubble. The question then becomes if Kariyas slightly better longivety puts him there as well, and that's a hard nut to crack. But then again, Bernie Federko is in and Kariya at least was a marquee player in the league and on a permanent team based in California becouse of a Hollywood movie. I think he can get in.

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06-05-2013, 03:51 PM
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Bure is in and did Bure accomplish more than Kariya? For the record, I support Bure's induction. If Kariya hadn't tried to comeback from those last few injuries, he'd be over a point per game. Also, how many players with 3 first time all star selections aren't in the hall?

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06-05-2013, 04:59 PM
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Nalens Oga
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blamebettman View Post
Nah he's a cut below, never had enough great seasons, only played 46 playoff games (not all his fault but still...) spent too much of his career on anonymous Western Franchises, Ducks, Blues etc) just a cut below.

I think if he were sitting at 450-475 goals and 1100 pts, we could have a discussion.
Babe Dye played in 10 plyoff games and had 2 pts....even after game conversion....the playoff thing for any player in the modern era with 22-30 teams is quite poor. Lindros and Kariya are eventually locks even if you don't like it....the thing about Kariya is that you can remember his play. You can remember his speed and shot and skill. Eventually once the HOF committee has a different set of members on it then they're gonna be impressed by those stats and actually remember Kariya's play (even if it was always with teams that no one paid attention to).

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06-05-2013, 10:22 PM
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Seems like the best comparable here is Pat Lafontaine. Both had exceptional peaks, injury-shortened careers, and forgettable playoff records. Lafontaine was arguably better at his very best, but Kariya had more elite seasons.

Everyone seems to be okay with Lafontaine's inclusion in the HOF, and I'd be fine with Kariya getting in too.

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06-05-2013, 10:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Dissonance View Post
Seems like the best comparable here is Pat Lafontaine. Both had exceptional peaks, injury-shortened careers, and forgettable playoff records. Lafontaine was arguably better at his very best, but Kariya had more elite seasons.

Everyone seems to be okay with Lafontaine's inclusion in the HOF, and I'd be fine with Kariya getting in too.
A good take overall, And I agree. Kariya should get in based on the resume, but also, for another reason that is also somewhat similar to Pat.

Pat's contribution to the game was also historic, as being part of the earliest wave of truly great Americans that set a standard for younger Americans.

Kariya chipped in in a similar way, by leading Canada to being a true contender at the Olympics in the early 90s. Prior to this time Canada simply had not been able to compete at the Olympics for generations, thanks to the IOC's policy on shamateurism.

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06-05-2013, 11:04 PM
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Originally Posted by blamebettman View Post
Nah he's a cut below, never had enough great seasons, only played 46 playoff games (not all his fault but still...) spent too much of his career on anonymous Western Franchises, Ducks, Blues etc) just a cut below.

I think if he were sitting at 450-475 goals and 1100 pts, we could have a discussion.
So what's your opinion on Bernie Nicholls?

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Seems like the best comparable here is Pat Lafontaine. Both had exceptional peaks, injury-shortened careers, and forgettable playoff records. Lafontaine was arguably better at his very best, but Kariya had more elite seasons.
No. LaFontaine absolutely had more elite years.

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Everyone seems to be okay with Lafontaine's inclusion in the HOF, and I'd be fine with Kariya getting in too.
And they both belong, so everyone should be fine with it.

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06-06-2013, 12:24 AM
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Originally Posted by eva unit zero View Post
No. LaFontaine absolutely had more elite years.
Explain.

Lafontaine finished 2nd, 8th in NHL scoring. Kariya finished 3rd, 4th, 4th, 7th.

Lafontaine had 4 seasons over 80 adjusted points. Kariya had 6.

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06-06-2013, 12:47 AM
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Explain.

Lafontaine finished 2nd, 8th in NHL scoring. Kariya finished 3rd, 4th, 4th, 7th.

Lafontaine had 4 seasons over 80 adjusted points. Kariya had 6.
Kariya had 8 years in 15 where he was >=1.00AdjPt/GP. He first dropped below in 2001-02, and he was below the mark every season after leaving the Ducks except 2005-06 and 2008-09 (11GP).

LaFontaine had 10 in 15, missing out four times early in his career and once in his second to last season when he only played 13 games due to concussion.

LaFontaine had a higher peak and better longevity; had he been heading out of the DPE rather than into it, he likely sees a few more seasons and a couple hundred more points.

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06-06-2013, 01:02 AM
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Originally Posted by eva unit zero View Post
Kariya had 8 years in 15 where he was >=1.00AdjPt/GP. He first dropped below in 2001-02, and he was below the mark every season after leaving the Ducks except 2005-06 and 2008-09 (11GP).

LaFontaine had 10 in 15, missing out four times early in his career and once in his second to last season when he only played 13 games due to concussion.

LaFontaine had a higher peak and better longevity; had he been heading out of the DPE rather than into it, he likely sees a few more seasons and a couple hundred more points.
Seriously?

If you call the seasons in their prime where they played 22 games a wash, then you're basing Lafontaine's superiority on seasons where he played 15 and 16 games? Really? That's pretty weak.

Both players had 7 seasons where they played >40 games and averaged over and adjusted point/game. Only difference is that Kariya's best seasons were better - 4 times top-10 in scoring to 2, 3 times top-5 to 1.

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06-06-2013, 01:31 AM
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Seriously?

If you call the seasons in their prime where they played 22 games a wash, then you're basing Lafontaine's superiority on seasons where he played 15 and 16 games? Really? That's pretty weak.

Both players had 7 seasons where they played >40 games and averaged over and adjusted point/game. Only difference is that Kariya's best seasons were better - 4 times top-10 in scoring to 2, 3 times top-5 to 1.
There is one problem though. It's been shown statistically that defensemen will consistently provide ~15% of the average offense throughout hockey history. It' also been shown that in higher scoring eras, the top tier scorers increase some, but the largest increase offensively is in second and third line players.

I simply wish there were a *better* system for adjusted points that accounted for offensive distribution by tier. It would certainly make statistical comparisons to the O6 and prior easier.

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06-06-2013, 04:52 AM
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Since it's the hockey hall of fame and not just the NHL hall of fame, here's two more things to consider (although they're based on just two seasons):

Kariya was by far the main force in Canada winning Olympic silver in 1994. The only players on that Canadian roster who inhabited anything resembling Kariya's universe were Brian Savage and Petr Nedved --- neither of whom were ever lauded for their consistentcy.

Finally, in a moment of complete homerism for me, Kariya averaged more than 2 points per game for a University of Maine team that put up the best season in NCAA hockey history when it went 42-1-2 in 1992-93.

My main memory of Kariya, however, will always be how he got completely waylaid by Scott Stevens in the 2003 finals and still got up to score a goal later in the game.

Hockey shows character like no other sport.

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06-06-2013, 05:36 AM
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Babe Dye played in 10 plyoff games and had 2 pts....even after game conversion....the playoff thing for any player in the modern era with 22-30 teams is quite poor. Lindros and Kariya are eventually locks even if you don't like it....the thing about Kariya is that you can remember his play. You can remember his speed and shot and skill. Eventually once the HOF committee has a different set of members on it then they're gonna be impressed by those stats and actually remember Kariya's play (even if it was always with teams that no one paid attention to).
dye also had 10p in '22 finals vs vancouver millionaires.

he never recorded a point in playoffs outside '22.

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06-06-2013, 09:15 AM
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I think he'll get in eventually but in a very weak class.

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06-06-2013, 02:54 PM
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Originally Posted by GameEight View Post

Kariya chipped in in a similar way, by leading Canada to being a true contender at the Olympics in the early 90s. Prior to this time Canada simply had not been able to compete at the Olympics for generations, thanks to the IOC's policy on shamateurism.
Also in 1994, he helped lead Canada to their first gold in the worlds since 1961.

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06-08-2013, 07:24 PM
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well even with his injuries he was still the 6th best scoring player in the NHL for a period of 16 years (his career in the NHL)

http://www.hockey-reference.com/play...rder_by=points

At his peak, he peaked out higher and had a longer career than a recent entry into the HHOF Cam Neely.

He should get in eventually despite the lack of a SC and limited playoff success.

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06-11-2013, 10:11 PM
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Bure is in and did Bure accomplish more than Kariya? For the record, I support Bure's induction. If Kariya hadn't tried to comeback from those last few injuries, he'd be over a point per game. Also, how many players with 3 first time all star selections aren't in the hall?
Mark Howe waited a very long time to get into the HHOF with 3 First team all-stars. Other guys comparable are John Leclair (2 1st team, 3 2nd team) Carl Brewer (1 1st team, 3 2nd team) Rick Martin (2 first team and 2 second team). Because of that, Kariya seems to be above that standard at least. However, Markus Naslund has three 1st team all-stars as well. It isn't a lock cinch in that regards.

I honestly think people have forgotten his perimeter play. The Suter hit really did him in. He was lethal in 1997. Easily among the conversation as the best player in the NHL in a post-Mario league. He holds out, then comes back with a bang and the Suter hit happens. I think his softness and a below-mediocre playoff record is something that will hurt him in the long run. And while we are talking about productive seasons in Nashville I think that is just the point, the word "productive" is not how I like to describe a potential HHOFer near what should have been the peak of his career. I am very torn on this one.

As for Lafontaine, he was just a little more dynamic overall and never really stopped until he got whacked by Francois Leroux in 1996-'97. His best season would have been a scoring title if not for Mario's return. Kariya, even at his best, was never near the Art Ross.

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06-11-2013, 11:37 PM
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And while we are talking about productive seasons in Nashville I think that is just the point, the word "productive" is not how I like to describe a potential HHOFer near what should have been the peak of his career. I am very torn on this one.
Kariya was 31 when he signed with Nashville. Im not sure how you expect someone to be at their peak at that age.

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06-12-2013, 12:35 AM
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I honestly think people have forgotten his perimeter play. The Suter hit really did him in. He was lethal in 1997. Easily among the conversation as the best player in the NHL in a post-Mario league. He holds out, then comes back with a bang and the Suter hit happens. I think his softness and a below-mediocre playoff record is something that will hurt him in the long run. And while we are talking about productive seasons in Nashville I think that is just the point, the word "productive" is not how I like to describe a potential HHOFer near what should have been the peak of his career. I am very torn on this one.
I think we've had this argument before but I absolutely hate this narrative. It just doesn't fit.

He came back the following year and posted 101 points, right in line with what he was doing before the hit. 3rd in the NHL in scoring. Career high in SOG.

The year after that, he probably wins the Art Ross if he doesn't miss 8 games through injury. 42 goals in 74 games in the darkest season of the dead puck era.

For two years after the injury, he was every bit as good as he ever was. Or damn close.

Then in 2000-01, we see his play start to fall off - his regular linemates change as Rucchin misses almost the entire season and then Selanne is traded. SOG go way down. And those trends just continue from there.

Personally I find it hard to believe that he was 'destroyed' by the Suter hit, just with a two-year delay on that effect, while all the while he continued on as a top-3 forward on the planet.

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06-12-2013, 12:40 AM
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I don't remember Paul Kariya as being a "perimeter player." I remember him as being a fast player who was a great stick handler, fun to watch, and scored a tonne of goals from the rush. I don't think a player being a perimeter player should be a detriment to him getting in the hall. It's only the case if he's a borderline selection (like Bondra) but Kariya's production and game breaking ability was too good for his play on his own half of the blue line to count against him or his lack of physicality. If we're gonna go by that standard then we should induct Theo Fleury instead who had similar production (more health/games of course). Although I do think Fleury should eventually be a HOFer, Kariya was a better player than him.

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06-12-2013, 04:37 PM
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I don't remember Paul Kariya as being a "perimeter player." I remember him as being a fast player who was a great stick handler, fun to watch, and scored a tonne of goals from the rush. I don't think a player being a perimeter player should be a detriment to him getting in the hall. It's only the case if he's a borderline selection (like Bondra) but Kariya's production and game breaking ability was too good for his play on his own half of the blue line to count against him or his lack of physicality. If we're gonna go by that standard then we should induct Theo Fleury instead who had similar production (more health/games of course). Although I do think Fleury should eventually be a HOFer, Kariya was a better player than him.
At his best, Kariya was better than Fleury. But over the long haul I think I'd take Fleury's career over his. Not by a country wide margin but he was a player who had more success in the postseason for starters. Yeah his teams didn't get out of the first round either much, but Fleury was the last guy in the world who would get blamed for this. With Kariya you almost feel as if he could have taken the bull by the horns a bit more.

Fleury brought a bit more to the table as well outside of offense. He was a pest on the ice, he was better defensively, was more physical and had more heart.

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Kariya was 31 when he signed with Nashville. Im not sure how you expect someone to be at their peak at that age.
The fact that he was another face in the crowd in the NHL by 2005 when he had just turned 31 bothers me a bit. No one even flirted with his name for the Olympics that year. Should that happen to a guy that young? It isn't as if this is Trottier and he had already punched his meal ticket in long ago.

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I think we've had this argument before but I absolutely hate this narrative. It just doesn't fit.

He came back the following year and posted 101 points, right in line with what he was doing before the hit. 3rd in the NHL in scoring. Career high in SOG.

The year after that, he probably wins the Art Ross if he doesn't miss 8 games through injury. 42 goals in 74 games in the darkest season of the dead puck era.

For two years after the injury, he was every bit as good as he ever was. Or damn close.

Then in 2000-01, we see his play start to fall off - his regular linemates change as Rucchin misses almost the entire season and then Selanne is traded. SOG go way down. And those trends just continue from there.

Personally I find it hard to believe that he was 'destroyed' by the Suter hit, just with a two-year delay on that effect, while all the while he continued on as a top-3 forward on the planet.
Yes we have had this conversation before, God bless these boards . Alright, my idea is that starting in 1998-'99 we saw a little different version of Kariya. He had 101 points but there was that dynamic that was misisng in him. It was a quiet season for him. Hard to believe that a 101 point guy would have had a quiet season, but he did relatively. 1999-'00 was a horribly weak year for forwards and Kariya and Selanne were not the duo they were by then either. There were a ton of injuries in the NHL at this time and even Pierre Turgeon was a player that could have snagged the Art Ross had he played all of his games and everyone else stayed the same. After 2000 it got worse for Kariya. He was easily a different player then, but the decline was starting before 2001. It was just slow. Basically he peaked in 1997, which shouldn't have happened. By 2003 he had a 25 goal season. That shouldn't have happened to a guy with his speed, his shot, his skill. I can't say for sure if Suter's hit hurt him (this isn't quite as clear as Gretzky being hit in 1991) but he got cross checked in the mouth after he scored a goal by Suter. This shows you the willingness he had to score at that time and the fact that we rarely saw this from him afterwards tells me he got a little more timid. When I think of vintage Kariya I think of 1997. Not post 1998.

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