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2013 Off Season Armchair GM thread part 2

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Old
06-06-2013, 05:05 PM
  #26
do0glas
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well i cant believe that a 37 year would get a raise. id definitely take him back at a discount.

really just depends on how much space we need to target whoever we are targetting.

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06-06-2013, 05:11 PM
  #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NWShark View Post
You can throw out +/- all you want but it's a simple stat that doesn't lie in this case. You're either on for more goals against or you're not. It doesn't place blame it only says if you were on the ice. If he was on for more goals for in the regular season that stat proves it.
Replace +/- with Corsi and goals with shots in that paragraph, and suddenly your aversion to Corsi seems pretty foolish.

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06-06-2013, 05:15 PM
  #28
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Originally Posted by West Coast Bias View Post
Replace +/- with Corsi and goals with shots in that paragraph, and suddenly your aversion to Corsi seems pretty foolish.


Was just thinking this.

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06-06-2013, 05:20 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by West Coast Bias View Post
Replace +/- with Corsi and goals with shots in that paragraph, and suddenly your aversion to Corsi seems pretty foolish.
So shot are as important as goals? I think someone should have sent that memo to the kings when they played the sharks...

I'm not averse, I just don't think it the be all end all... And it isn't.. Neither is +/-. But does rule out the idea that boyles defensive play is adversely affecting the teams win loss record. Whatever his weakness in his own zone, he making up for it in the offensive zone. Hence the reason he hovers around being even.


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06-06-2013, 05:35 PM
  #30
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Originally Posted by NWShark View Post
So shot are as important as goals? I think someone should have sent that memo to the kings when they played the sharks...

I'm not averse, I just don't think it the be all end all... And it isn't.. Neither is +/-. But does rule out the idea that boyles defensive play is adversely affecting the teams win loss record. Whatever his weakness in his own zone, he making up for it in the offensive zone. Hence the reason he hovers around being even.
He hovers around being even because he plays most of his minutes with the top two lines, we have a Vezina caliber goalie, and the Sharks are a winning team. That's why +/- is not a terribly useful stat. Corsi is flawed too, but it does tell you something useful and that is this player is pushing play in the right direction.

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06-06-2013, 05:46 PM
  #31
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Originally Posted by NWShark View Post
So shot are as important as goals? I think someone should have sent that memo to the kings when they played the sharks...

I'm not averse, I just don't think it the be all end all... And it isn't.. Neither is +/-. But does rule out the idea that boyles defensive play is adversely affecting the teams win loss record. Whatever his weakness in his own zone, he making up for it in the offensive zone. Hence the reason he hovers around being even.
Corsi is probably more important than +/- for a couple reasons. One is that its a way bigger sample size and second is that it gives a good idea which team that play is slanted torwards. A bad thing about +/- it doesn't take into account things like that goal at the end of a power play or if the shift before took a bad change which led to a goal. Hell, Jeff Schultz was a +50 one season, he's not exactly a stud player.

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06-06-2013, 06:06 PM
  #32
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Originally Posted by hohosaregood View Post
Corsi is probably more important than +/- for a couple reasons. One is that its a way bigger sample size and second is that it gives a good idea which team that play is slanted torwards. A bad thing about +/- it doesn't take into account things like that goal at the end of a power play or if the shift before took a bad change which led to a goal. Hell, Jeff Schultz was a +50 one season, he's not exactly a stud player.
Regardless of the circumstances. Boyles +/- was inline with previous years and it is a measure of gaa and gf while a player is on the ice. He may have benefitted in some situation but its likely he was hurt as well. Those type of things tend to even out.

Neither of you addresses the fact that a meager 5 or 6 shots against over more than 3 games worth of Es ice time is the whole basis of deeming him a liability. The value he brings to the pp out weighs that. Geez how many times have the sharks out shot teams but not had any real good scoring chances? I'd say there is plenty of flaw in corsi. Where's the data on quality of shot? How would you even quantify it since its subjective? That would be more valuable than a simple shots for and against stat... Where's the zone time stat? I would love to know how much of his ice time Boyle spends in the defensive zon compared to offensive... Especially comparing his partners over the last couple years.


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06-06-2013, 06:10 PM
  #33
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Originally Posted by NWShark View Post
Regardless of the circumstances. Boyles +/- was inline with previous years and it is a measure of gaa and gf while a player is on the ice. He may have benefitted in some situation but its likely he was hurt as well. Those type of things tend to even out.

Neither of you addresses the fats the a meager 5 or 6 shots against over more than 3 games worth of Es ice time is the whole basis of deeming him a liability. The value he brings to the pp out weighs that. Geez how many times have the sharks out shot teams but not had any real good scoring chances? I'd say there is plenty of flaw in corsi. Where's the data on quality of shot? How would you even quantify it since its subjective? That would be more valuable than a simple shots for and against stat... Where's the zone time stat? I would love to know how much of his ice time Boyle spends in the defensive zon compared to offensive... Especially comparing his partners over the last couple years.
I'm not really commenting on his defensive ability other than to just say it is worse than it was before. I didn't say he was a liability, I don't think he's to that point yet, unless you put him up against top competition consistently. As long as he's sheltered a bit and given reasonable ice time it's manageable.

But not at nearly $7m for a sheltered player who is putting up 2/3'rds of his points on the powerplay.

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06-06-2013, 06:20 PM
  #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NWShark View Post
Regardless of the circumstances. Boyles +/- was inline with previous years and it is a measure of gaa and gf while a player is on the ice. He may have benefitted in some situation but its likely he was hurt as well. Those type of things tend to even out.

Neither of you addresses the fats the a meager 5 or 6 shots against over more than 3 games worth of Es ice time is the whole basis of deeming him a liability. The value he brings to the pp out weighs that. Geez how many times have the sharks out shot teams but not had any real good scoring chances? I'd say there is plenty of flaw in corsi. Where's the data on quality of shot? How would you even quantify it since its subjective? That would be more valuable than a simple shots for and against stat... Where's the zone time stat? I would love to know how much of his ice time Boyle spends in the defensive zon compared to offensive... Especially comparing his partners over the last couple years.
Well, the puck being in the defensive zone is not a good thing especially at ES when that is the bulk of a skater's playing situation. How many times have the Sharks out shot teams and had good scoring chances and won those games? It's likely a lot more than the ones where they did that, didn't generate quality opportunities, and lost. We just remember those more because they stand out in our minds. That's how that works. Corsi's purpose isn't to show you the quality of the shot. It's to show where the puck is when a guy is on the ice.

Making the point about lesser competition and still being on the losing end of this stat is not a good thing like you thought prior. He's facing weaker competition and getting out-shot? That's pretty telling. Can he get lucky enough to have the goals and +/- be in the positive? Yes, of course. More often than not though, that isn't the case and it will catch up to him if it continues.

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06-06-2013, 06:29 PM
  #35
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I find myself agreeing with both sides.

its not too detrimental to keep boyle another year, you can always extend at a lower cap hit after and trade.

or you can trade him now and possibly get high in a deep draft.

boyle at even strength has definitely plummeted, but in a compressed season i dont see how it compares.

for instance, in 07/08 he only had 8 even strength points in a similar amount of ice time. his ppg is similar as well.

id say he has lost a step, and is likely being sheltered...but that doesnt mean he still cant contribute in a regular season.

im for both scenarios...i dont feel strongly enough either way.

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06-06-2013, 06:34 PM
  #36
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Originally Posted by Pinkfloyd View Post
Well, the puck being in the defensive zone is not a good thing especially at ES when that is the bulk of a skater's playing situation. How many times have the Sharks out shot teams and had good scoring chances and won those games? It's likely a lot more than the ones where they did that, didn't generate quality opportunities, and lost. We just remember those more because they stand out in our minds. That's how that works. Corsi's purpose isn't to show you the quality of the shot. It's to show where the puck is when a guy is on the ice.

Making the point about lesser competition and still being on the losing end of this stat is not a good thing like you thought prior. He's facing weaker competition and getting out-shot? That's pretty telling. Can he get lucky enough to have the goals and +/- be in the positive? Yes, of course. More often than not though, that isn't the case and it will catch up to him if it continues.
Sorry but giving up 1 or 2 shots more per game isn't a huge deal in this players case. If it were some one with no value on the pp..? Waive them, get them off the team as fast as possible. With boyle the good far out weighs the mediocre...

As far as being lucky to be a positive player? Do it enough and it can't be luck...

With out knowing the quality of shots corsi is largely useless unless it shows a huge disparity.

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06-06-2013, 06:40 PM
  #37
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The idea that Boyle's elite contributions on the PP outweigh his deficient even strength play, where he is becoming a bit of a liability, is perfectly acceptable to me. In fact, that was my point from the beginning; Boyle beckming a PP specialist.

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06-06-2013, 07:24 PM
  #38
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Hypothetical Question

If Detroit offered the 18th and 48th overall picks for Boyle, would you take it?

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06-06-2013, 07:29 PM
  #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hatrick Marleau View Post
If Detroit offered the 18th and 48th overall picks for Boyle, would you take it?
i probably would

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06-06-2013, 07:37 PM
  #40
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If Detroit offered the 18th and 48th overall picks for Boyle, would you take it?
Yes. I don't really think they would though.

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06-06-2013, 07:39 PM
  #41
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Some stats geeks have done shot quality studies. They are almost all based on proximity to the goal. The correlation is not that good. IMO, it would be better based on a formula of proximity plus the number of defenders between the shooter and the goal. The eyeball/informal stat test is the SH% on odd-mans and breakaways that would support the use of an advanced formula. The league no longer provides zone time stats; it disappeared almost a decade ago. But the eyeball suggests a high percentage for shots taken soon after entry into the zone. Add entry time to this hypothetical advanced formula. For someone to do this, it would be a group effort with stats geeks tracking every game during the season as the league doesn't provide the information. This type of study would be more interesting today as many more coaches are relying on an extreme collapse in their defensive strategy.

On PPQBs, they are always considered PMDs when playing 5on5. It used to be that teams would rely on one PMD and 5 defensive specialists at 5on5. Many teams are finding more success with a 3/3 split in their defensive alignment and even more where it might be 4/2 or 5/1 in PMDs over defensive specialists. Chicago is an extreme case in point. When a team uses only one PMD these days, it severely curtails their offense. And it is even worse if they have to shelter that primary PMD as most coaches are matching strength to strength among the forwards. A primary PMD behind 3rd and 4th line players is an invitation to disaster as it will curtail 5on5 scoring.

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06-06-2013, 07:58 PM
  #42
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I view it like this: Higher quality shots have a better chance of scoring. however, taken with the disparity between the numbers (much higher rate of shots from perimeter) it all evens out.

Obviously if i was getting 30 high quality shots per game id probably outscore anyone else..but its closer to 4-7 high quality/22-26 normal shots. so thats why the advanced +\- doesnt really take into account shot quality, because with the way the game is played...it doesnt really exist in terms of numbers.

which brings us back to sample size. id say you have to kind of take it in packs. so young/prime/old 3-5 year increments are good samples to determine decline or progression. you can take an 82 game sample alone, and make some judgement calls..like in boyles case. hes at the end of what id consider the old years. for him it would be like 35-40.

hard to use this season as a judge in any case. it wont favor the older players at all, and it could likely skew younger players stats upward.

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06-06-2013, 08:02 PM
  #43
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Originally Posted by hockeyball View Post
I'm not really commenting on his defensive ability other than to just say it is worse than it was before. I didn't say he was a liability, I don't think he's to that point yet, unless you put him up against top competition consistently. As long as he's sheltered a bit and given reasonable ice time it's manageable.

But not at nearly $7m for a sheltered player who is putting up 2/3'rds of his points on the powerplay.
How much worse has been the whole debate. His poor ratio of points on the pp to ES is only this regular season as someone else pointed out. Not comparable to other full seasons 1 to 1. No did unitive conclusion can be made that he's really gon that far ratio wise. I bet there are previous 46 game stretches where he's has a similar ratio points wise pp to ES.


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06-06-2013, 08:07 PM
  #44
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Originally Posted by do0glas View Post
I find myself agreeing with both sides.

its not too detrimental to keep boyle another year, you can always extend at a lower cap hit after and trade.

or you can trade him now and possibly get high in a deep draft.

boyle at even strength has definitely plummeted, but in a compressed season i dont see how it compares.

for instance, in 07/08 he only had 8 even strength points in a similar amount of ice time. his ppg is similar as well.

id say he has lost a step, and is likely being sheltered...but that doesnt mean he still cant contribute in a regular season.

im for both scenarios...i dont feel strongly enough either way.
I don't think it's honest to say he's plummeted when looking at one comparably small group of games (46).

I'm fine if they trade him too as long as a legit replacement comes in. I just don't agree that the stats from a shortened season are a true indicator of where his play is at compared to previous seasons, therefore none of you can make an accurate assessment that his play has dramatically fallen off.

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06-06-2013, 08:10 PM
  #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NWShark View Post
I don't think it's honest to say he's plummeted when looking at one comparably small group of games (46).

I'm fine if they trade him too as long as a legit replacement comes in. I just don't agree that the stats from a shortened season are a true indicator of where his play is at compared to previous seasons, therefore none of you can make an accurate assessment that his play has dramatically fallen off.
I thought it was starting to fall apart last season (full season) and this season it just went from ok to bad.

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06-06-2013, 08:12 PM
  #46
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Originally Posted by TheJuxtaposer View Post
The idea that Boyle's elite contributions on the PP outweigh his deficient even strength play, where he is becoming a bit of a liability, is perfectly acceptable to me. In fact, that was my point from the beginning; Boyle beckming a PP specialist.
Yay! Common ground. But historically pp specialist aren't leading the team in ice time. Especially in this day and age where there aren't an abundance of pp chances. I'm not saying he's an all situation stud but they are limiting his ES minutes that dramatically. In previous year the sharks defensive depth sucked so he played more. I bet if they had this defense back when he was a league leader in ice time, they would have limited him in a similar way.

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06-06-2013, 08:59 PM
  #47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NWShark View Post
Sorry but giving up 1 or 2 shots more per game isn't a huge deal in this players case. If it were some one with no value on the pp..? Waive them, get them off the team as fast as possible. With boyle the good far out weighs the mediocre...

As far as being lucky to be a positive player? Do it enough and it can't be luck...

With out knowing the quality of shots corsi is largely useless unless it shows a huge disparity.
For a PMD of his caliber that is supposed to be driving possession when he's on the ice, I think it is. This is also the same guy that got sheltered compared to what he was doing in the past. So if he was dropping down in competition and still losing the possession battle, that is a problem. However, I'm more than willing to accept that it could be an exception just based on the compressed schedule but it's something to look at for next season regardless of what team he is on. Personally, I think they should trade him simply because I don't think this is a Cup-challenging team next season. I don't think they have the assets or the space to make the additions needed to take the next step. I do like how they played to finish the year but I don't know if this coaching staff and management team can be trusted to continue it next season. We'll see and the draft is probably the day we see their direction as I'm fairly certain something big happens for this team that day.

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Old
06-06-2013, 09:38 PM
  #48
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Quote:
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For a PMD of his caliber that is supposed to be driving possession when he's on the ice, I think it is. This is also the same guy that got sheltered compared to what he was doing in the past. So if he was dropping down in competition and still losing the possession battle, that is a problem. However, I'm more than willing to accept that it could be an exception just based on the compressed schedule but it's something to look at for next season regardless of what team he is on. Personally, I think they should trade him simply because I don't think this is a Cup-challenging team next season. I don't think they have the assets or the space to make the additions needed to take the next step. I do like how they played to finish the year but I don't know if this coaching staff and management team can be trusted to continue it next season. We'll see and the draft is probably the day we see their direction as I'm fairly certain something big happens for this team that day.
Coaching staff and management? they wanted to play the way they finished the year and harped on it all year. Many times TMac and co. said they need to play fast and need to skate and play a heavier game. DW has said it. The players are the ones that need to continue with it. Coaches and management can only do so much.

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06-06-2013, 09:42 PM
  #49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gene Parmesan View Post
Coaching staff and management? they wanted to play the way they finished the year and harped on it all year. Many times TMac and co. said they need to play fast and need to skate and play a heavier game. DW has said it. The players are the ones that need to continue with it. Coaches and management can only do so much.
Didn't mclellan say something midway through this season about slowing the game down and playing a defensive system? You know during that wonderful month and a bit that nearly made the sharks miss the playoffs.

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06-06-2013, 09:47 PM
  #50
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@Hatrick Marleau I'd do that without the 48th.

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