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What Do You Think That MacT Can Get In Return For Hemsky And Horcoff?

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Old
06-08-2013, 02:01 PM
  #51
nexttothemoon
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Hemsky has been on the trading block for years (hopefully no one asks me for proof and links because it's common knowledge and has been discussed over and over).... so surely somewhere along the way, the Oilers would have gotten some type of offer on Hemsky. No doubt it wasn't deemed worthy as he wasn't traded away. I think at one time many seasons ago, expecting a 1st and a prospect certainly wasn't out of the question. Too many q marks now though and his value has declined. I doubt much more than a 2nd is the expectation now.

I wouldn't blame solely Tambo either... obviously the entire brain-trust inside the Oilers including Lowe thought he was better value to keep rather than trade away (and loyalty to Hemsky who's always shut his mouth and never seems to be a complainer was probably also a factor).

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06-08-2013, 02:08 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Seedling View Post
I see Horcoff going to a cap floor team for a B prospect. Isles like those high hits and lower salary.


If no cap floor teamis interests in Horcoff, he is a definite buyout.
Staple says the isles will not have trouble reaching the cap floor. So, no interest in paying Horcoff $4m.

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06-08-2013, 02:09 PM
  #53
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Originally Posted by thinlizzy View Post
If we can't find a decent 3rd line center swing a deal with NYI and bring back Marty Reasoner for a 1-2 years , two way contract. 5 points in 31 games isn't too bad.
Reasoner is a ufa. Just offer him a contract.

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06-08-2013, 02:13 PM
  #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shoop View Post
Right now the Oilers have $15 M in cap room and need to sign five forwards, three defencemen and a goalie.

Buying out Horcoff puts them over $20M in cap room and adds the need for a 3C.

The cap is going to be tight all over.

There will be no teams making trades to get to the cap floor. So there is no trade market for Horcoff that makes sense for the Oilers.
How do you figure those numbers?

Hall - Nuge - Ebs
Paajarvi (RFA ~1.5) - Gagner (RFA ~5) - Yakupov
UFA - UFA - UFA
Smyth(likely another UFA) - UFA - Brown
Eager

Smid - Petry
UFA - J. Schultz
N. Schultz - Belov
Potter

Dubnyk
UFA

I count 6 or 7 forwards (2 are RFA's), one dman, and a backup goalie. Capgeek says we'd have over 26 million to sign an entire 3rd line, a 4th line center, a 2nd pairing dman, and a backup goalie. Even if we overpay Streit, we'll have ~19 million for 4 bottom 6ers

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06-08-2013, 02:14 PM
  #55
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I can see many teams interested in Horcoff, but only once he's bought out.

Hemsky will garner some interest.

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06-08-2013, 02:17 PM
  #56
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Horc will be bought out, they will try, of course to deal him, but he will be bought out. Hemsky, hard to say, I think he might end up involved in some sort of blockbuster deal.

Hemsky + Klefbom+ 7th over all for B.Richards + Del Zotto.


Who knows.

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06-08-2013, 02:19 PM
  #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Nuge View Post
How do you figure those numbers?

Hall - Nuge - Ebs
Paajarvi (RFA ~1.5) - Gagner (RFA ~5) - Yakupov
UFA - UFA - UFA
Smyth(likely another UFA) - UFA - Brown
Eager

Smid - Petry
UFA - J. Schultz
N. Schultz - Belov
Potter

Dubnyk
UFA

I count 6 or 7 forwards (2 are RFA's), one dman, and a backup goalie. Capgeek says we'd have over 26 million to sign an entire 3rd line, a 4th line center, a 2nd pairing dman, and a backup goalie. Even if we overpay Streit, we'll have ~19 million for 4 bottom 6ers
Here's what the oilers have signed now per cap geek (not where they would actually play or if they should stay)

Hall - Nuge - Ebs
Hem - Horc - Yak
Smyth, Belanger, Brown, Lander

Schultz - Schultz
Smid - Petry
Belov - Potter

Dubnyk

Based on those signed players they have $14.9M in cap room.

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06-08-2013, 02:23 PM
  #58
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Has anyone heard of any potential hemsky trades that tambo turned down? I realize its water under the bridge, but I still would like to know. I heard Hemsky for erat + was offered at the draft, last year. I suspect the + was the 32nd pick. If that's true It's no wonder Tambo got skidded
Lowetide mentioned on his Team 1260 show he heard they were offered a 2nd and a 4th for Hemsky at one point. Bob McKenzie was also on Neilson and Fraser yesterday, said the Oilers shopped Hemsky at the deadline and there wasn't any interest. I think most Oiler fans are likely going to be disappointed in the return when Hemsky is finally dealt.

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06-08-2013, 02:39 PM
  #59
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Not sure how reataining salary works. Is it cap hit or salary. If its caphit, assuming Horcoff returns a pick (with us eating some of his cap hit, say half 2.75). What is more valuable to us 5.5 million in capspace or 2.75 million in capspace + 3rd round draft pick? I would just rather go with the 5.5 million capspace and amnesty him personally.

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06-08-2013, 02:41 PM
  #60
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shoop View Post
The cap is going to be tight all over.

There will be no teams making trades to get to the cap floor. So there is no trade market for Horcoff that makes sense for the Oilers.
The cap floor is $44 million next year right?

A look at cap geek says NYI and PHX will need to add salary to reach it.

So how can you state the above?

There will be plenty of teams that will have cap space. Some teams are budget teams (eg Sens, Preds, Stars) and not cap teams meaning players with actual salary lower than cap hit might find Horc appealing

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06-08-2013, 02:45 PM
  #61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shoop View Post
Here's what the oilers have signed now per cap geek (not where they would actually play or if they should stay)

Hall - Nuge - Ebs
Hem - Horc - Yak
Smyth, Belanger, Brown, Lander

Schultz - Schultz
Smid - Petry
Belov - Potter

Dubnyk

Based on those signed players they have $14.9M in cap room.
I didn't click on save for Paajarvi and Gags when I did their cap hits, so I'm 6.5 million high. This is basically our cap situation for next season with Hemsky traded and Horcoff and Belanger traded or bought out.



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06-08-2013, 02:47 PM
  #62
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Originally Posted by doubledown99 View Post
The cap floor is $44 million next year right?

A look at cap geek says NYI and PHX will need to add salary to reach it.

So how can you state the above?

There will be plenty of teams that will have cap space. Some teams are budget teams (eg Sens, Preds, Stars) and not cap teams meaning players with actual salary lower than cap hit might find Horc appealing
Speaking for Phoenix, we're already at 40 million in cap payroll with only 7 signed forwards (2 signed centers) and no goaltenders under contract. We're easily going to hit the floor just by resigning RFAs Boedker, Korpikoski, Stone, and Rundblad.

Reaching the floor isn't really a problem, and it's certainly not enough of one to take on Horcoff's contract at full salary for us.

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06-08-2013, 02:49 PM
  #63
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Originally Posted by Spawn View Post
I keep hearing this... if you are a cap floor team you have an internal budget. If you have an internal budget you don't want to pay Shawn Horcoff 4 million dollars next year. Not even close to worth it. Much easier ways to get to the cap floor.
No doubt, I'm sure that there are better options at $3.5 million AAV than Horcoff and they could be had for free.

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06-08-2013, 02:57 PM
  #64
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Originally Posted by IPreferPi View Post
Speaking for Phoenix, we're already at 40 million in cap payroll with only 7 signed forwards (2 signed centers) and no goaltenders under contract. We're easily going to hit the floor just by resigning RFAs Boedker, Korpikoski, Stone, and Rundblad.

Reaching the floor isn't really a problem, and it's certainly not enough of one to take on Horcoff's contract at full salary for us.
So you guys may reach the cap floor but is your team going to be better?

No matter what anybody says Horc is a good 3rd line C. And looking at UFAs there isn't much there.

Horc at $3 mil or so is good value for a team.

Also, I'm pretty sure MacT knows where he is sending these guys. He wouldn't have made his comments without some idea.

Stauffer on his show confirmed this. He says Horc will be going to Eastern conf team (and said a team better than Oilers are).

Said for Hemsky there is interest and stated Nsh and PHX

Note: he also said we will be retaining $1-2 mil o Horcs contract

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06-08-2013, 03:02 PM
  #65
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Originally Posted by doubledown99 View Post
Bozak who is comparable to Horc will likely get 4-5 mil on the open market.

Name me better 3rd line Cs than Horc.....how much do they make?
Bozak is not comparable to Horcoff as he was pretty much the first line center on that team, a role Horcoff hasn't been capable of since 2009(debatable he was very good at it even then).

Not an easy list since rosters are not rigidly structured with clearly identifiable roles, but looking at 15'ish a minute game players who take faceoffs while looking for players who generally fit into that role -

Dave Bolland(3.375)
Daniel Winnick(1.8)
Rich Peverley(3.25)
Steve Ott(2.95)
Vernon Fiddler(1.8)
Joakim Andersson(875k)
Drew Shore(1.1)
Marcel Goc(1.7)
Jarred Stoll(3.25)
Matt Cullen(3.5)
Kyle Brodziak(2.8)
Lars Ellers(1.35)
Paul Gustad(3.2)
Brian Boyle(1.7)
Zack Smith(1.8)
Sean Couturier(1.35)
Boyd Gordon(1.3)
Brandon Sutter(2.0)
Vladimir Sobotka(1.3)
Nate Thompson(1.6)
Jay McClement(1.5)

Not all teams are represented due to how they use their forwards and the general murkiness of some rosters(converted wingers, sheltered centers etc). But overall - similar levels of production, similar levels of ice time(most don't get anywhere near the powerplay time), similar levels of faceoffs.

Add in the fact that Horcoff doesn't bring the intangibles of physicality and toughness most players in that role are required to bring which magnified by a team that is already butter soft, and you've got a buyout candidate, and a gross overpayment for a 3rd line center.

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06-08-2013, 03:04 PM
  #66
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Originally Posted by Tarus View Post
Bozak is not comparable to Horcoff as he was pretty much the first line center on that team, a role Horcoff hasn't been capable of since 2009(debatable he was very good at it even then).

Not an easy list since rosters are not rigidly structured with clearly identifiable roles, but looking at 15'ish a minute game players who take faceoffs while looking for players who generally fit into that role -

Dave Bolland(3.375)
Daniel Winnick(1.8)
Rich Peverley(3.25)
Steve Ott(2.95)
Vernon Fiddler(1.8)
Joakim Andersson(875k)
Drew Shore(1.1)
Marcel Goc(1.7)
Jarred Stoll(3.25)
Matt Cullen(3.5)
Kyle Brodziak(2.8)
Lars Ellers(1.35)
Paul Gustad(3.2)
Brian Boyle(1.7)
Zack Smith(1.8)
Sean Couturier(1.35)
Boyd Gordon(1.3)
Brandon Sutter(2.0)
Vladimir Sobotka(1.3)
Nate Thompson(1.6)
Jay McClement(1.5)

Not all teams are represented due to how they use their forwards and the general murkiness of some rosters(converted wingers, sheltered centers etc). But overall - similar levels of production, similar levels of ice time(most don't get anywhere near the powerplay time), similar levels of faceoffs.

Add in the fact that Horcoff doesn't bring the intangibles of physicality and toughness most players in that role are required to bring which magnified by a team that is already butter soft, and you've got a buyout candidate, and a gross overpayment for a 3rd line center.
Excellent post, now I wouldn't say that Horcoff is < all of those players, but relative to production vs. pay I'd say that list is bang on.

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06-08-2013, 03:14 PM
  #67
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Originally Posted by doubledown99 View Post
So you guys may reach the cap floor but is your team going to be better?

No matter what anybody says Horc is a good 3rd line C. And looking at UFAs there isn't much there.

Horc at $3 mil or so is good value for a team.

Also, I'm pretty sure MacT knows where he is sending these guys. He wouldn't have made his comments without some idea.

Stauffer on his show confirmed this. He says Horc will be going to Eastern conf team (and said a team better than Oilers are).

Said for Hemsky there is interest and stated Nsh and PHX

Note: he also said we will be retaining $1-2 mil o Horcs contract
Well, now you're changing the goalposts lol. Horcoff at $3 million is a risk for us - I think he'll benefit from a change of scenery but he's on the wrong side of thirty and not getting any younger. It's arguable that we may as well just resign Gordon and give him that money; although I wouldn't prefer that type of outcome, at least we know exactly what to expect with Gordon.

Giving up assets for a year of Hemsky isn't all that appealing either, especially at full salary.

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06-08-2013, 03:18 PM
  #68
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tarus View Post
Bozak is not comparable to Horcoff as he was pretty much the first line center on that team, a role Horcoff hasn't been capable of since 2009(debatable he was very good at it even then).

Not an easy list since rosters are not rigidly structured with clearly identifiable roles, but looking at 15'ish a minute game players who take faceoffs while looking for players who generally fit into that role -

Dave Bolland(3.375)
Daniel Winnick(1.8)
Rich Peverley(3.25)
Steve Ott(2.95)
Vernon Fiddler(1.8)
Joakim Andersson(875k)
Drew Shore(1.1)
Marcel Goc(1.7)
Jarred Stoll(3.25)
Matt Cullen(3.5)
Kyle Brodziak(2.8)
Lars Ellers(1.35)
Paul Gustad(3.2)
Brian Boyle(1.7)
Zack Smith(1.8)
Sean Couturier(1.35)
Boyd Gordon(1.3)
Brandon Sutter(2.0)
Vladimir Sobotka(1.3)
Nate Thompson(1.6)
Jay McClement(1.5)

Not all teams are represented due to how they use their forwards and the general murkiness of some rosters(converted wingers, sheltered centers etc). But overall - similar levels of production, similar levels of ice time(most don't get anywhere near the powerplay time), similar levels of faceoffs.

Add in the fact that Horcoff doesn't bring the intangibles of physicality and toughness most players in that role are required to bring which magnified by a team that is already butter soft, and you've got a buyout candidate, and a gross overpayment for a 3rd line center.
I appreciate the work you did but this is so flawed. You have Eller listed and I agree he is better but this than assumes Desharnais is top 2 and there is no way I would have Deshairnais over Horc.

Most of the list is like this. The ones that are obvious are Pit (Sutter), SJ, Phi (Couts). Th rest is arguable. Some of the players listed shouldn't even be there....

What this should have told you is that Horc is nowhere near as bad as you or others think. He is a good 3rd liner that is overpaid. But he brings things that help teams be successful.

This fanbase has always had this problem. We think our players suck and they go to other teams and flourish. Clearly, Brodziak, Greene, Stoll, etc.

Horc will be no different.

I agree he needs to go. The contract, expectations of fans based on the contract, the losing are all factors that probably affect Horc and his play. I just disagree that he can't be moved and must be bought out.

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06-08-2013, 03:22 PM
  #69
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Ok, I'm gonna propose something a little bit crazy here. The Pens are going to be looking at offloading Fleury, we are going to want to offload Horc. Horc unfortunately has a worse cap hit though, so we'd probably have to add a little something like Anaheims 2nd. But, if Fleury can turn his game around here, maybe him a Dubnyk can be a good 1-2 combo.

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06-08-2013, 03:40 PM
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Ok, I'm gonna propose something a little bit crazy here. The Pens are going to be looking at offloading Fleury, we are going to want to offload Horc. Horc unfortunately has a worse cap hit though, so we'd probably have to add a little something like Anaheims 2nd. But, if Fleury can turn his game around here, maybe him a Dubnyk can be a good 1-2 combo.
I'd do this but I doubt the Pens do it.

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06-08-2013, 03:51 PM
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A counteroffer: Gordon's UFA Rights + Brandon McMillan (an RFA we acquired from Anaheim in exchange for Matthew Lombardi at the deadline - he's a speedy bottom 6'er who's good defensively) for Horcoff @ 50%. Obviously, he (and Gordon) can be added to Roof Daddy's proposal of 1st swaps as well if that makes it more palatable for you guys.

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06-08-2013, 04:00 PM
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Originally Posted by IPreferPi View Post
A counteroffer: Gordon's UFA Rights + Brandon McMillan (an RFA we acquired from Anaheim in exchange for Matthew Lombardi at the deadline - he's a speedy bottom 6'er who's good defensively) for Horcoff @ 50%. Obviously, he (and Gordon) can be added to Roof Daddy's proposal of 1st swaps as well if that makes it more palatable for you guys.
Well looks like I was wrong and others were right, Horc has no value. Speculation that MacT is about to announce Horc has been bought out so PHX can now get him without giving up any assets.

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06-08-2013, 04:03 PM
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Well looks like I was wrong and others were right, Horc has no value. Speculation that MacT is about to announce Horc has been bought out so PHX can now get him without giving up any assets.
Might have spoken too soon....I'm reading that Kruger is getting axed.

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06-08-2013, 04:10 PM
  #74
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I appreciate the work you did but this is so flawed. You have Eller listed and I agree he is better but this than assumes Desharnais is top 2 and there is no way I would have Deshairnais over Horc.

Most of the list is like this. The ones that are obvious are Pit (Sutter), SJ, Phi (Couts). Th rest is arguable. Some of the players listed shouldn't even be there....

What this should have told you is that Horc is nowhere near as bad as you or others think. He is a good 3rd liner that is overpaid. But he brings things that help teams be successful.

This fanbase has always had this problem. We think our players suck and they go to other teams and flourish. Clearly, Brodziak, Greene, Stoll, etc.

Horc will be no different.

I agree he needs to go. The contract, expectations of fans based on the contract, the losing are all factors that probably affect Horc and his play. I just disagree that he can't be moved and must be bought out.
I would take all those players over Horcoff right now. We are seeing different players really, you sound like you are talking about the player Horcoff was 4 years ago, which doesn't sound any thing like the player who has been going through the motions the last two years while unwilling to accept to accept a lesser role on the team. Even the statement about Stoll/Brodizak etc is a little baffling to be honest, considering they were mid-20s players finding their way, while Horcoff is 35 and only going to decline going forward. A better example would be Moreau(once good player who tailed off).

It's not about who is better though, it's about paying the range for the role and finding players that fit the team. A soft, 5.5 million a year 3rd line center(I doubt we'll ever agree on his effectiveness) is a colossal waste of money when the team has no 3rd line wingers, a crappy 4th line, and glaring holes in the top 6(costs money) and defense(even more money).

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06-08-2013, 04:23 PM
  #75
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Originally Posted by SHO NUFF View Post
Lowetide mentioned on his Team 1260 show he heard they were offered a 2nd and a 4th for Hemsky at one point. Bob McKenzie was also on Neilson and Fraser yesterday, said the Oilers shopped Hemsky at the deadline and there wasn't any interest. I think most Oiler fans are likely going to be disappointed in the return when Hemsky is finally dealt.
We missed our window to trade Hemsky. He should have been dealt at the TDD in 2011. It would have been a similar return as to what Penner got us. I'm hoping we can get a 1st in the 25-30 range for him but will most likely have to settle for a 2nd. Then we get to watch him have a career year with his new team.

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