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Trading Up Part II: The Midnight Barkov

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Old
06-19-2013, 11:51 AM
  #726
Zip15
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Originally Posted by haseoke39 View Post
Yeah, okay. That poster was real ****ing obstinate about that as a real proposal.
We argued over two pages whether the buyout of Lecavalier has the value to justify moving from 3 to 8. Nowhere did he say that the buyout was just a piece of the deal, in addition to other (apparently unmentioned) assets.

Again, his own words:

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Originally Posted by stokes84 View Post
You presume just as much as I do. Who is going to want to trade for any of those players without going money in, money out? Generally, non-cap issue teams are that way for a reason, they have internal budgets. They aren't just going to take on old, often injured players on big salaries without sending back a bunch of junk. Do you think teams that can smell a wounded animal aren't going to try to put the squeeze on? You make it sound like teams are lining up to help them fix their problems. Also, nobody said they just give up the 3rd pick, it would be used as an asset in something larger. For example, instead of giving up Girgs + 8, you do the buyout + 8. It's simply a way to give up less in terms of actual players.
Nowhere does he mention 8 + buyout + other assets.

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06-19-2013, 11:55 AM
  #727
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If Jones slid to four, are you calling Poile and offering up the bank for him?

There has been little talk of trading up for Jones around these parts.

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06-19-2013, 12:03 PM
  #728
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If Jones slid to four, are you calling Poile and offering up the bank for him?

There has been little talk of trading up for Jones around these parts.
I say no. I don't like the track record of the top defenseman picked in the draft. I think it's more likely to be a waste. Defensemen mature later, that's just how it goes. Much longer bet that at 17 or 18 any D is going to turn into a top flight guy.

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06-19-2013, 12:06 PM
  #729
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Fine, you win. It was a hard and fast proposal that totally wouldn't work. But as an idea for an additional asset, it still has merit and I hope they explore it.

As for Jones, I don't think I'd sell the farm for him like I would MacKinnon.

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06-19-2013, 12:48 PM
  #730
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I don't think tampa is going to want to move too far down, from the sounds of it they would be okay with any of the top 5(mack, Jones, Drouin, Barkov, Nich). Secondly, I don't think they would be very interested in Grigorenko they already have talented centers and center prospects. Moving up to 5 first then to 3 makes it much more realistic in my eyes because they will still be able to get one of their guys.

Sekera+8 for 5
Foligno+5+52 for Malone+3

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06-19-2013, 01:44 PM
  #731
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gallagt01 View Post
If Jones slid to four, are you calling Poile and offering up the bank for him?

There has been little talk of trading up for Jones around these parts.
I'd offer the bank for Mackinnon.

I'd offer up nearly the bank for Drouin or Barkov.

Jones? Meh. I am always petrified of defenseman in the top couple of picks in the draft. While they usually become solid NHL players, they don't often become stars.

Besides, we already have a Seth Jones more or less.

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06-19-2013, 02:13 PM
  #732
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Have you guys listened to this?

http://audio.wgr550.com/a/76559680/6...ree-agency.htm

You've got to love Zemgus, i say!!!

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06-19-2013, 02:31 PM
  #733
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Z is a beast. Agreed that he's the closest thing to untouchable. His work ethic is the absolute embodiment of everything Pegula, Ruff, and Rolston have said about what they want this team to look like going forward.

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06-19-2013, 02:45 PM
  #734
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Originally Posted by gallagt01 View Post
If Jones slid to four, are you calling Poile and offering up the bank for him?

There has been little talk of trading up for Jones around these parts.
I'm thinking Regier only trades up for a forward. However, various people who have spoken of Jones seem to be pretty sure of themselves in calling him a 'sure shot' to be a dynamic Dman.

Never know what's going to happen. What if 1-7 are all inclined to take mostly forwards? If Jones dropped to 8, would you take him or would you shift your focus to Ristolainen or Zadorov? Or would you look to draft a "lower tier" forward a la Shinkaruk, Domi, Lazar, Wenneburg, Horvat, Gauthier etc.?

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06-19-2013, 02:49 PM
  #735
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wearegodawful View Post
I'm thinking Regier only trades up for a forward. However, various people who have spoken of Jones seem to be pretty sure of themselves in calling him a 'sure shot' to be a dynamic Dman.

Never know what's going to happen. What if 1-7 are all inclined to take mostly forwards? If Jones dropped to 8, would you take him?
That will never happened, but if it did, is that even a question? Of course we take him and we laugh at everyone who drafted before us.

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06-19-2013, 02:55 PM
  #736
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Would we take Jones at 8 ? You cannot be serious :smile

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06-19-2013, 02:57 PM
  #737
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Well, there's gotta be some reason why he had dropped that far...

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06-19-2013, 03:10 PM
  #738
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The path seems clear, the price is the outstanding question.

8 to 5 to 3 to 1

Carolina to Tampa Bay to Colorado.

If Miller/Vanek truly don't want to resign, make a statement for the future.

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06-19-2013, 03:47 PM
  #739
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Hey, in all this Vinny talk....think about this:

Let's face it, he's still a top tier center, good age, blah, blah....everyone is looking for a #1 center, he fits for the next few years.

So whatever deal we do for the buyout, Tampa thinks they have a deal in place to resign him to a lower cap hit.....

Do you really think Toronto wouldn't offer him a boat load of money once they get wind of the potential buyout, he'd instantly be the top free agent. It might be a back-fire move by Tampa.

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06-19-2013, 03:47 PM
  #740
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8 to 5 to 3 to 1 seems like way too much has to happen. I think #8 to Nashville's #4 is more realistic, and if the price from #4 to #1 is too steep you stand pat and take Barkov/Drouin/Jones. I have a feeling Colorado would be happy with any of the top 4 and they would be satisfied in taking the #4 back.

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06-19-2013, 07:00 PM
  #741
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Originally Posted by haseoke39 View Post
The point is the old core isn't going to be very valuable by the time we're rebuilt. They'll be fine, and that's not reason enough to get rid of them by itself, sure. However, if you don't get value out of them while it's high now, your new core might not be very valuable either. Just continuing to draft players like you always have, trade 1 or 2 guys like you always have, retain most of your previous year's roster like you always have, that doesn't constitute a rebuild. It doesn't constitute anything. That's status quo, that's treading water. And so you can expect the new guys coming up to be about as good as the old guys, because you won't send present value out the door now in order to get better future value. One fluke top 5 pick will turn out to be a borderline all-star, about a third of your other mid-round guys will pan out into average NHL players, and a couple will be above average, and if you do it all very smartly, you might put the right group together to win a round or two in the playoffs. But you have to either get extremely lucky (Datsyuk and Zetterberg, and that might not even be an option post-euro scouting) or else get extremely high value assets in order to shore up the kinds of future superstars that cup winners are built around.

You don't just above-average-stumble your way way to a cup winner. You need a Chara, or a Quick, a Kopitar, a Toews and Kane, a Crosby and Malkin, a Datsyuk and Zetterberg, a Pronger and Neidermayer. You need a couple of future hall of famers. We don't have any, and I think the odds are very low that anyone in the pipeline has that future. And if the plan is "let's keep picking in the 10-15 range for the next few years, acquire a few more Larsson's every now and then, about half of which will be average to above average NHLers, as this or that player seems to have hit their peak and becomes expendable, and never roll the dice to try to acquire a high value asset of any kind," I feel very comfortable betting against us for all foreseeable future.

I'm talking about moving these guys to acquire future superstars. I don't care if we overpay, because in a forgettable season's time, we won't have either of them anyways. Do you have a better idea of how we get our Kane and Toews, our Crosby and Malkin, our Chara, our Quick, our Datsyuk and Zetterberg, our Pronger and Neidermayer? If you did, and it seemed like better odds than getting to the top of this exceptionally good draft, I would be more amenable to your perspective.

- Well lets see, the Hawks and Pens both won a draft lottery to get Kane/Crosby. So thats a form a stumbling around, since it was pure luck.

- Chara didn't start to become the Chara we see now until about his 8th season in the NHL. He was drafted in the 3rd round. We have a dman with the potential to be an impact player of his level in Myers (5 years post draft). Unfortunately few on this board have the patience to wait.

- Its funny you mentioned picking 10-15th as no way to develop a Cup champion. The LA Kings picked Kopitar (11th) and Brown (13th) in that range and Quick was drafted in the 3rd round. Most of the Bruins top players were drafted in the 2nd round (Bergeron, Krecji and Lucic to name a few)


The simple fact is if you draft well you can have a lot of assets that either turn into the players you need or provide the assets to get the players you need. Then augment with trades and free agent signings.

But the idea of massively overpaying for one specific prospect, no matter how highly rated, has never been a path to a Cup win for anyone.

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06-19-2013, 07:02 PM
  #742
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Matty Ohlund can be traded.
I agree with your general point but I highly doubt that a guy who's missed the past two seasons due to injuries and might never play again, with 3 years left on his contract can really be considered "tradeable"

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06-19-2013, 07:02 PM
  #743
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Originally Posted by struckbyaparkedcar View Post
Z is a beast. Agreed that he's the closest thing to untouchable. His work ethic is the absolute embodiment of everything Pegula, Ruff, and Rolston have said about what they want this team to look like going forward.
Granted, he established the reputation as a hard-worker during juniors and he certainly backed it up in Rochester - but some of the adulation I've been hearing on WGR about Girgenson and how much of a "monster" he was in the AHL playoffs is verging on major over-exaggeration. Even if he was the best player in the series, it still was only 3 games.

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Originally Posted by stokes84 View Post
I'm not sure if this is smokescreen or what, but in my mind, the Avs couldn't be more ripe to trade out of that pick. If he values Barkov ahead of Jones, you'd think he would be willing to trade back to 4.

http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/2...aft-a-forward/
Common sense says it is - ever since they won the lottery, the prevailing opinion is that the Avs will select Jones because of his position matching a Colorado weakness and for his family history. It probably led to some teams pursuing Florida with trade offers, thinking they could land MacKinnon with the 2nd pick - and thus reducing the offers coming Colorado's way.

By saying they will take MacKinnon, Barkov or Drouin, the teams desperate to land any of those 3 will theoretically feel more inclined to chase the # 1 pick.

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06-19-2013, 07:14 PM
  #744
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Originally Posted by gallagt01 View Post
If Jones slid to four, are you calling Poile and offering up the bank for him?

There has been little talk of trading up for Jones around these parts.
The more interesting question to me: would Nashville even take him? They're known for drafting defensemen earlier more frequently than other organizations, but they also do a consistent job of finding and developing defensive gems and need forward talent much more at this point.

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06-19-2013, 07:14 PM
  #745
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Originally Posted by Sabretip View Post
Granted, he established the reputation as a hard-worker during juniors and he certainly backed it up in Rochester - but some of the adulation I've been hearing on WGR about Girgenson and how much of a "monster" he was in the AHL playoffs is verging on major over-exaggeration. Even if he was the best player in the series, it still was only 3 games.
You do realize he can be a monster in the playoffs and the playoffs can last only 3 games. These aren't mutually exclusive ideas. Girgs was excellent, along with his linemate Larsson.


I also think you aren't quite grasping how impressive that is considering his age and the league Grigs came from, the USHL. A league thats below major junior and 2 steps below the AHL. That he did this as a 18/19year old rookie is definitely something to get very excited about. Many felt it was a mistake for his development to go directly to the AHL. That his game really started to emerge late in the year and took off in the playoffs is something very positive. Maybe thats why you are trying to play it down, since its not something to pound on Regier for.

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06-19-2013, 07:17 PM
  #746
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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
- Well lets see, the Hawks and Pens both won a draft lottery to get Kane/Crosby. So thats a form a stumbling around, since it was pure luck.

- Chara didn't start to become the Chara we see now until about his 8th season in the NHL. He was drafted in the 3rd round. We have a dman with the potential to be an impact player of his level in Myers (5 years post draft). Unfortunately few on this board have the patience to wait.

- Its funny you mentioned picking 10-15th as no way to develop a Cup champion. The LA Kings picked Kopitar (11th) and Brown (13th) in that range and Quick was drafted in the 3rd round. Most of the Bruins top players were drafted in the 2nd round (Bergeron, Krecji and Lucic to name a few)


The simple fact is if you draft well you can have a lot of assets that either turn into the players you need or provide the assets to get the players you need. Then augment with trades and free agent signings.

But the idea of massively overpaying for one specific prospect, no matter how highly rated, has never been a path to a Cup win for anyone.
I want to dump Gatorade on this post and then carry it around on my shoulders. Exactly!

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06-19-2013, 07:24 PM
  #747
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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
- Well lets see, the Hawks and Pens both won a draft lottery to get Kane/Crosby. So thats a form a stumbling around, since it was pure luck.

- Chara didn't start to become the Chara we see now until about his 8th season in the NHL. He was drafted in the 3rd round. We have a dman with the potential to be an impact player of his level in Myers (5 years post draft). Unfortunately few on this board have the patience to wait.

- Its funny you mentioned picking 10-15th as no way to develop a Cup champion. The LA Kings picked Kopitar (11th) and Brown (13th) in that range and Quick was drafted in the 3rd round. Most of the Bruins top players were drfated in the 2nd round; Bergeron, Krecji and Lucic to name a few)


The simple fact is if you draft well you can have a lot of assets that either turn into the players you need or provide the assets to get the players you need.

But the idea of massively overpaying for one specific prospect, no matter how highly rated, has never been a path to a Cup win for anyone.
So in each of these points, you dispute how you get elite players. That's fine. If you have a better strategy for how to get them than at the top of the draft, argue it. Of course there exist elite players that come about other ways. Just not nearly as reliably.

As far as I'm aware, we're being patient. That's not our problem. We're drafting third round players every year. We're drafting in all the slots where these diamonds in the rough end up being hidden. And we're not getting them. And neither are most teams.

I actually like Jame's analogy on the subject. A fistful of lottery tickets works sometimes, but by definition, it's just less likely. If there's some proactive step we should be taking to make our third rounders turn into Chara more often, you should let them know, because as far as I'm aware, it's just dumb luck down there. The best hockey minds on earth make their lists and then pray.

And finally, on the subject of massively overpaying for one prospect, it depends on your perspective. I think ten years of Nathan MacKinnon is going to be worth a hell of a lot more than one year of Miller or Vanek, e.g., especially when you know that one year is going to be spent in the gutter. Throwing both of them after him is no kind of overpayment. In fact, even the vets who we have for a few more years have very little value to me when I know that their years of competence are going to be spent babysitting a losing team. I don't care about the difference between 12th and 9th. I care about the cup, and anybody on this team over a certain age is almost certainly not going to play a serious role on a cup winner in BUffalo. And it's not just about what that one player brings. When you have Toews and Kane on your team, Marian Hossa comes to you begging for a contract. An elite core has a lot more value than just the sum of its parts.

Keep going the way we're going, and our odds of having a hall of famer in the pipeline are about the same as they've been for 43 years. The franchise has lucked its way into one and found another with the first overall pick. That's not a set of odds that I'm liking.

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06-19-2013, 08:03 PM
  #748
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Or consider it another way.

Take the list of the 50 best players in the NHL. Of the top 10, six were drafted in the top 3 picks.

Of the top 20, half were selected with the top 3 picks in the draft.

Of the top 30, 13 were taken with the top 3 picks in the draft.

Of the top 40, 16 were taken with the top 3 picks.

Of the top 50, 20 were taken with the top 3 picks in the draft.

Let's assume the goal is to get elite players. Say you're okay filling out your roster the rest of the way through free agency and trades, which is pretty doable for midlevel guys. There's 210 picks in the NHL draft. So if you were to trade all 207 other picks in the draft for just the top 3, statistically, you'd be overpaying, but only by about a 3:2 ratio. If the goal was to get a top 20 guy in the NHL, you wouldn't be overpaying at all.

So yes, we can keep on drafting in the 4-210 range and highmindedly scolding folks that if we'd just do it right, we'd get those other 30 top players. But I think I don't need to really stress any further that this is statistically stupid if the goal is to get elite talent.


Last edited by haseoke39: 06-19-2013 at 08:09 PM.
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06-19-2013, 08:07 PM
  #749
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I know, I know, hockeybuzz isn't a 'good source', strictly speaking. That's why I'm inquiring, not informing:

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/GARTH...0#.UcJU3PmsiSo

Anyone else head about this? Regier speaking tomorrow afternoon? Perhaps regarding my wishes (and some others)? Comn MacKinnon, the dream lives on!

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06-19-2013, 08:12 PM
  #750
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So in each of these points, you dispute how you get elite players. That's fine. If you have a better strategy for how to get them than at the top of the draft, argue it. Of course there exist elite players that come about other ways. Just not nearly as reliably.
You're ranting and raving in multiple posts that we have to draft high to get the players need to win the Cup. Yet many of the players you use as examples were not picked at the top of the draft or were even picked by the team they are currently playing for (Chara). It kinda undercuts your point.


Quote:
As far as I'm aware, we're being patient. That's not our problem. We're drafting third round players every year. We're drafting in all the slots where these diamonds in the rough end up being hidden. And we're not getting them. And neither are most teams.
I don't even know what this means.

Quote:
I actually like Jame's analogy on the subject. A fistful of lottery tickets works sometimes, but by definition, it's just less likely. If there's some proactive step we should be taking to make our third rounders turn into Chara more often, you should let them know, because as far as I'm aware, it's just dumb luck down there. The best hockey minds on earth make their lists and then pray.

Actually luck plays a role in the draft every year. Getting a high end player is as much about one being available when you pick as it is where you pick. This is an incredibly deep draft. So the odds of getting a high end player at 8 this year is pretty damn high compared to other years. Go look at the 2003 draft. A draft this one is compared to in terms of depth.

To use a more specific example on luck, the year Kane was drafted it was quite a drop off after him. Philly had by far the worst record in the league but lost the draft lottery to the Hawks. So Philly gets JVR instead of Kane. If Philly had their crappy year the next season and lost the draft lottery they could have drafted Doughty after Stamkos.


If this draft is anything like 2003 there should be several franchise changing talents in this 1st round as well as top level players. That year at #1 MAF, #2 Eric Staal, #3 N. Horton, #5 Vanek, #7 Suter, #8 Coburn, #9 Phanuef, #11 J.Carter, #13 D.Brown, #15 Seabrook, #17 Parise, #19 Getzlaf, #23 Kesler, #24 M.Richards, #28 Perry.

The second round of that draft produced; #33 Loui Eriksson, #45 P. Bergeron, #47 Carle, #49 Shea Weber, #52 Corey Crawford, #62 Backes, #64 Jimmy Howard,


Luck certainly plays a role but playing your cards right can increase you chances of taking advantage of deep drafts like the upcoming one. Something Regier did with the 8th, 16th, 38th and 52nd picks.


Quote:
And finally, on the subject of massively overpaying for one prospect, it depends on your perspective. I think ten years of Nathan MacKinnon is going to be worth a hell of a lot more than one year of Miller or Vanek, e.g., especially when you know that one year is going to be spent in the gutter. Throwing both of them after him is no kind of overpayment. In fact, even the vets who we have for a few more years have very little value to me when I know that their years of competence are going to be spent babysitting a losing team. I don't care about the difference between 12th and 9th. I care about the cup, and anybody on this team over a certain age is almost certainly not going to play a serious role on a cup winner in BUffalo. And it's not just about what that one player brings. When you have Toews and Kane on your team, Marian Hossa comes to you begging for a contract. An elite core has a lot more value than just the sum of its parts.

If you're talking about trading Vanek/Miller for the top pick then go ahead I'm with you. But I highly doubt any team in the top 3 would be interested in that.

The overpayment I'm talking about is giving away all of our 1st this year plus youngsters plus....


Quote:
Keep going the way we're going, and our odds of having a hall of famer in the pipeline are about the same as they've been for 43 years. The franchise has lucked its way into one and found another with the first overall pick. That's not a set of odds that I'm liking.
Most teams luck their way into franchise players.

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