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Trading Up Part II: The Midnight Barkov

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06-12-2013, 08:01 PM
  #201
Jame
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bucky Gleason View Post
Absolutely, Patrik Stefan is a difference maker
you want to play the odds/percentage game again?

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06-12-2013, 08:03 PM
  #202
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Originally Posted by Rob Paxon View Post
:insert list of non-bust first rounders:
:insert link to thread on % success by pick:

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06-12-2013, 08:06 PM
  #203
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In the end, we'll all cheer for MacKinnon/Barkov together boys and girls.

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06-12-2013, 08:06 PM
  #204
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
:insert link to thread on % success by pick:
:add up percent success rate for 5 lower first round picks we'd be giving up and watch it eclipse the #1 pick:

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06-12-2013, 08:07 PM
  #205
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
:insert link to thread on % success by pick:
What is the probability of success of 4 top 16 picks?

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06-12-2013, 08:09 PM
  #206
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Originally Posted by haseoke39 View Post
:add up percent success rate for 5 lower first round picks we'd be giving up and watch it eclipse the #1 pick:
oh, that's how you think math works?

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06-12-2013, 08:12 PM
  #207
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
oh, that's how you think math works?
Okay, fine. Multiply the inverse of the success rates of all the five picks we'd give up and watch it shrink smaller than the rate of non-success for #1 picks. You know what I meant.

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06-12-2013, 08:17 PM
  #208
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
:insert link to thread on % success by pick:
What about the probability of 5 first rounders of varying slot striking on a higher net value, nevermind the chance of getting a comparably productive player. Nevermind that the actual pieces being considered include only 2 actual draft picks.

I don't know why everything always has to tumble into these nearly irrelevant pits of contention. The proposed deal is seriously out of whack value-wise.

How about this: the likelihood of Barkov being a comparable player to MacKinnon + keeping a whole lot of assets in the bargain.

I can't wait until the draft.

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06-12-2013, 08:22 PM
  #209
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Originally Posted by haseoke39 View Post
Okay, fine. Multiply the inverse of the success rates of all the five picks we'd give up and watch it shrink smaller than the rate of non-success for #1 picks. You know what I meant.
over a 10 year period (00-09) the first forward taken in the top 1-3 picks, has a 100% success rate

09 - Tavares #1
08 - Stamkos #1
07 - Kane #1
06 - Staal #2 / Toews #3
05 - Crosby #1
04 - Ovechkin #1 / Malkin #2
03 - Staal #2 /
02 - Nash #1
01 - Kovy #1 / Spezza #2
00 - Heatley #2 / Gaborik #3

Mackinnon is going to a franchise player...

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06-12-2013, 08:26 PM
  #210
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
over a 10 year period (00-09) the first forward taken in the top 1-3 picks, has a 100% success rate

09 - Tavares #1
08 - Stamkos #1
07 - Kane #1
06 - Staal #2 / Toews #3
05 - Crosby #1
04 - Ovechkin #1 / Malkin #2
03 - Staal #2 /
02 - Nash #1
01 - Kovy #1 / Spezza #2
00 - Heatley #2 / Gaborik #3

Mackinnon is going to a franchise player...
The point isn't really whether or not MacKinnon will be a franchise player, though not all the guys on that list are actually franchise players.

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06-12-2013, 08:27 PM
  #211
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
over a 10 year period (00-09) the first forward taken in the top 1-3 picks, has a 100% success rate

09 - Tavares #1
08 - Stamkos #1
07 - Kane #1
06 - Staal #2 / Toews #3
05 - Crosby #1
04 - Ovechkin #1 / Malkin #2
03 - Staal #2 /
02 - Nash #1
01 - Kovy #1 / Spezza #2
00 - Heatley #2 / Gaborik #3

Mackinnon is going to a franchise player...
All those teams who drafted all those guys without giving up a ridiculous package of picks and prospects, how many resulted in winning a cup, or resulted in a successful team?

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06-12-2013, 08:31 PM
  #212
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Karate Johnson View Post
All those teams who drafted all those guys without giving up a ridiculous package of picks and prospects, how many resulted in winning a cup, or resulted in a successful team?
09 - Tavares #1
08 - Stamkos #1
07 - Kane #1
06 - Staal #2 / Toews #3
05 - Crosby #1
04 - Ovechkin #1 / Malkin #2
03 - Staal #2 /
02 - Nash #1
01 - Kovy #1 / Spezza #2
00 - Heatley #2 / Gaborik #3


Those gents have played in, or won a cup. Too early for stamkos and tavares imo. Unbolded includes Ovy, who I'd trade the mother for, and Gaborik, who I wouldve trade for 4 years ago.

Edit: and Nash, who I'd take as well.

Comn. I'd take any of these guys at 17...

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06-12-2013, 08:33 PM
  #213
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Karate Johnson View Post
All those teams who drafted all those guys without giving up a ridiculous package of picks and prospects, how many resulted in winning a cup, or resulted in a successful team?
for some of the more recent ones it's still a bit early.... but lets have some fun anyways

09 - Tavares #1
08 - Stamkos #1
07 - Kane #1 Kane won a cup
06 - Staal #2 / Toews #3 Staal won a cup, Toews won a cup
05 - Crosby #1 - Crosby won a cup
04 - Ovechkin #1 / Malkin #2 - Malkin won a cup
03 - Staal #2 Staal won a cup
02 - Nash #1
01 - Kovy #1 / Spezza #2 New Jersey and Ottawa made cup finals
00 - Heatley #2 / Gaborik #3 : Ottawa made a cup final

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06-12-2013, 08:36 PM
  #214
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DYaeger89 View Post
09 - Tavares #1
08 - Stamkos #1
07 - Kane #1
06 - Staal #2 / Toews #3
05 - Crosby #1
04 - Ovechkin #1 / Malkin #2
03 - Staal #2 /
02 - Nash #1
01 - Kovy #1 / Spezza #2
00 - Heatley #2 / Gaborik #3


Those gents and played in, or won a cup. Too early for stamkos and tavares imo. Unbolded includes Ovy, who I'd trade the mother for, and Gaborik, who I wouldve trade for 4 years ago.

Edit: and Nash, who I'd take as well.

Comn. I'd take any of these guys at 17...

Considering the point is to draft a guy as the cornerstone of the franchise to build around I'm only interested in players who were drafted and became the cornerstone of the franchise that drafted them and went on to success.


Trading a boatload for MacKinnon so that we can trade him somewhere else for less and he goes on to win a cup somewhere else isn't what I'm looking for.

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06-12-2013, 08:38 PM
  #215
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
Yea, I mean who Would want to trade kriukov, paille, Novotny, Persson, and Zagrapan....
Average draft position of those 5 players was 18.8th overall. We own 2 top 16 picks including the 8th overall. The 8th overall two seasons ago is an "elite center prospect" your exact words. Not a good comparison whatsoever. 2 top 16 picks are a lot more valuable then what a lot of people think and considering this draft is considered the best since 2008, ill keep my 2 1sts and 2 2nds.

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06-12-2013, 08:39 PM
  #216
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
for some of the more recent ones it's still a bit early.... but lets have some fun anyways

09 - Tavares #1
08 - Stamkos #1
07 - Kane #1 Kane won a cup
06 - Staal #2 / Toews #3 Staal won a cup, Toews won a cup
05 - Crosby #1 - Crosby won a cup
04 - Ovechkin #1 / Malkin #2 - Malkin won a cup
03 - Staal #2 Staal won a cup
02 - Nash #1
01 - Kovy #1 / Spezza #2 New Jersey and Ottawa made cup finals
00 - Heatley #2 / Gaborik #3 : Ottawa made a cup final

Why are the #2 and #3 picks relevant?

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06-12-2013, 08:39 PM
  #217
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Karate Johnson View Post
Considering the point is to draft a guy as the cornerstone of the franchise to build around I'm only interested in players who were drafted and became the cornerstone of the franchise that drafted them and went on to success.


Trading a boatload for MacKinnon so that we can trade him somewhere else for less and he goes on to win a cup somewhere else isn't what I'm looking for.
Ahhhhh.....what? Everyone who went / won, won with the team who drafted them.

Edit: That's a weak Cherrypick on Kovy, who did NOT go on to win a cup elsewhere

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06-12-2013, 08:43 PM
  #218
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
for some of the more recent ones it's still a bit early.... but lets have some fun anyways

09 - Tavares #1
08 - Stamkos #1
07 - Kane #1 Kane won a cup
06 - Staal #2 / Toews #3 Staal won a cup, Toews won a cup
05 - Crosby #1 - Crosby won a cup
04 - Ovechkin #1 / Malkin #2 - Malkin won a cup
03 - Staal #2 Staal won a cup
02 - Nash #1
01 - Kovy #1 / Spezza #2 New Jersey and Ottawa made cup finals
00 - Heatley #2 / Gaborik #3 : Ottawa made a cup final
Pittsburgh skews things by having (needing?) 3 of those players win a Cup. Good luck trading for Crosby, Malkin, and Staal in successive drafts.

New Jersey didn't draft Kovalchuk, Ottawa didn't draft Heatley, etc... I don't think that's a legitimate comparison, especially in Kovalchuk's case considering how far down the line he was brought in to NJ.

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06-12-2013, 08:45 PM
  #219
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Layne Staley View Post
Average draft position of those 5 players was 18.8th overall. We own 2 top 16 picks including the 8th overall. The 8th overall two seasons ago is an "elite center prospect" your exact words. Not a good comparison whatsoever. 2 top 16 picks are a lot more valuable then what a lot of people think and considering this draft is considered the best since 2008, ill keep my 2 1sts and 2 2nds.
cup contenders are built with franchise players...
franchise forwards are a near certainty at the top of the draft...
Mackinnon is a franchise forward...
we will have plenty of "high picks" over the next few years to build around him...

you prefer buying lottery tickets... i prefer putting my savings into google 10 years ago

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06-12-2013, 08:46 PM
  #220
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Originally Posted by Rob Paxon View Post
Pittsburgh skews things by having (needing?) 3 of those players win a Cup. Good luck trading for Crosby, Malkin, and Staal in successive drafts.

New Jersey didn't draft Kovalchuk, Ottawa didn't draft Heatley, etc... I don't think that's a legitimate comparison, especially in Kovalchuk's case considering how far down the line he was brought in to NJ.
One might argue that if we dumped a ton of assets into trading up for Mackinnon, we might then lose our way to a couple more elite prospects (ekblad, macdavid)

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06-12-2013, 08:46 PM
  #221
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Originally Posted by DYaeger89 View Post
Ahhhhh.....what? Everyone who went / won, won with the team who drafted them.

Edit: That's a weak Cherrypick on Kovy, who did NOT go on to win a cup elsewhere :
If the point of trading up to #1 is to draft a cornerstone for a franchise so the franchise can be successful I'm only interested in guys who are successful with the team that drafted them.

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06-12-2013, 08:48 PM
  #222
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I wonder how well Pittsburgh would have done if they'd traded Malkin Staal Fleury and Whitney for the Crosby pick

E: Chicago with toews and Kane, Washington with backstrom and ov, etc

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06-12-2013, 08:49 PM
  #223
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Originally Posted by Karate Johnson View Post
If the point of trading up to #1 is to draft a cornerstone for a franchise so the franchise can be successful I'm only interested in guys who are successful with the team that drafted them.
Fair enough. All that's left then is over half that list.

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06-12-2013, 08:50 PM
  #224
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Originally Posted by Karate Johnson View Post
If the point of trading up to #1 is to draft a cornerstone for a franchise so the franchise can be successful I'm only interested in guys who are successful with the team that drafted them.
that's a silly caveat, but no one cares... it's completely beside the point. the point is the caliber of player that history shows at the top of the draft, especially at forward/center.

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06-12-2013, 08:50 PM
  #225
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
One might argue that if we dumped a ton of assets into trading up for Mackinnon, we might then lose our way to a couple more elite prospects (ekblad, macdavid)
If we dump Vanek and Miller for picks and prospects we will have plenty of high picks to draft top forwards next year, or the year after.

I'm totally down for a couple years of suck.

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