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Roberto Luongo to... ANYWHERE!

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Old
06-13-2013, 02:29 PM
  #226
y2kcanucks
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kack zassian View Post
... Umm you don't pay your GM to take the easy route... you pay him to make the best moves possible.

"Hmm... I would rather go fishing than trade Luongo. I will just get my assistant to file the paperwork to do a buyout instead... "
It's the easier way out because it plays into people's fantasies that the Canucks are screwed, that their favourite team will get a great goalie for a dirt cheap cap hit, that their favourite team will get rid of a bad contract/poor player for a great goalie, or that the Canucks are so screwed that they would spend $24M to buyout a goalie (while ignoring cheaper options) so that maybe their favourite team could sign Luongo to a cheaper deal since his annual income is supplemented by that buyout.

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06-13-2013, 02:30 PM
  #227
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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
Luongo was our best player in the playoffs and is an elite goalie. Saying him being around the team was a distraction that cost us this season is a copout. The team itself isn't good enough. Spending that much on the goaltending position isn't ideal, but we have enough fat around our roster that we can trim to make it work if need be. Makes a lot more sense than paying $24M for a guy to leave the team no matter how much some people wish it would happen.
So trim the fat and Luongo and you have $6 million to improve your team. It's that simple. The cost is that of a depth defenceman that doesnt count against the cap. It's like the Rangers hiding Redden in the minors in the last CBA or the Oilers dropping Souray. It's a competitive advantage of being a wealthy team in a good market. It's likely the best solution to the problem and the only reason they've denied it so far is the hope that some GM will go nuts and offer something.

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06-13-2013, 02:33 PM
  #228
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Originally Posted by Halibut View Post
So trim the fat and Luongo and you have $6 million to improve your team. It's that simple. The cost is that of a depth defenceman that doesnt count against the cap. It's like the Rangers hiding Redden in the minors in the last CBA or the Oilers dropping Souray. It's a competitive advantage of being a wealthy team in a good market. It's likely the best solution to the problem and the only reason they've denied it so far is the hope that some GM will go nuts and offer something.
That's an incredibly unlikely scenario. It's much more likely that, if there's no market for Luongo at all, that he'll simply not report and have his contract terminated. Something he is on the record as saying he would do if he could.

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06-13-2013, 02:33 PM
  #229
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Originally Posted by kack zassian View Post
W/ Luongo, would you rather have a goalie who makes less than market value now (in a tight cap environment) but the tradeoff is you incur that saved cap at a later point when the cap will be ~30% more?

Or would you rather just have present market value and incur no penalties later?
It depends, the ones intrested are the cap floor teams that could benefit from it. They would welcome a cap penalty so they reach the floor.

But what if the likes of NYI trade for Luongo by the time they are contenders they have dead capspace.

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06-13-2013, 02:33 PM
  #230
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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
That would potentially be valid if Luongo does not return to the league and no longer plays. Except I think Luongo is good enough that he'll get signed by another team and will be playing.
I know where you are going with this line of thought.

Obviously I would expect the Canucks to clear this with the league, but I think the NHL will interpret the phrase (such that he is not playing and
is not receiving Salary pursuant to that Long-Term Contract)
as:

such that he is not playing (under the terms of the long-term contract) and
is not receiving Salary pursuant to that Long-Term Contract

instead of:

such that he is not playing (with any team in the NHL on any contract) and is not receiving Salary pursuant to that Long-Term Contract

This reminds me of the ROR offer sheet interpretation issue from earlier this year.

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06-13-2013, 02:37 PM
  #231
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Originally Posted by Halibut View Post
So trim the fat and Luongo and you have $6 million to improve your team. It's that simple. The cost is that of a depth defenceman that doesnt count against the cap. It's like the Rangers hiding Redden in the minors in the last CBA or the Oilers dropping Souray. It's a competitive advantage of being a wealthy team in a good market. It's likely the best solution to the problem and the only reason they've denied it so far is the hope that some GM will go nuts and offer something.
Difference is:

Luongo is one of the best in the world at his position, and his cap hit is below market value.

Thats why a buyout is unlikely.

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06-13-2013, 02:38 PM
  #232
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tempest2i View Post
I know where you are going with this line of thought.

Obviously I would expect the Canucks to clear this with the league, but I think the NHL will interpret the phrase (such that he is not playing and
is not receiving Salary pursuant to that Long-Term Contract)
as:

such that he is not playing (under the terms of the long-term contract) and
is not receiving Salary pursuant to that Long-Term Contract

instead of:

such that he is not playing (with any team in the NHL on any contract) and is not receiving Salary pursuant to that Long-Term Contract

This reminds me of the ROR offer sheet interpretation issue from earlier this year.
Agreed. We could definitely go back and forth all day based on our interpretations of this and I don't think we'd get anywhere. This is probably one where, if it happens, we'll have to wait and see how it plays out and how the NHL lawyers interpret it.

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06-13-2013, 02:42 PM
  #233
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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
Again, you completely missed my point.
No, you're missing the point. Everybody agrees that Luongo is an elite goaltender. The problem I had with your post was the suggestion the contract wasn't a major issue (and, in fact, THE major issue) in the trade scenario.

Yeah, Luongo is a superb netminder. He also has an albatross of a contract and that contract is not going away and it will determine his trade value.

Quote:
Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post

Nabokov was one of the reasons why the Islanders made it to the playoffs. Didn't Brodeur just come off of a SCF run? Wasn't Dwayne Roloson one of the reasons the Lightning made it to game 7 of the ECF in 2011? And there are a lot of Luongo-to-the-Isles threads because Nabokov is a UFA.
With all due respect to an informed poster, have you really watched all of those netminders in action? I watched every single game Nabokov played this year. He was meh at best in the early going, excellent down the stretch run, and horrendous in the playoffs. he was probably the main reason Pitt beat us. The decline is obvious.

And, btw, Nabokov has essentially agreed to terms, per Newsday, so the UFA thing is not the issue. He simply isn't good enough to carry the load anymore and most Isles fans would like to see a younger guy as #1.

I also saw Roloson in his twilight years. He had some great nights but was also a shadow of his former self. I thought he was just dreadful in his last year in EDM. And, when the Isles moved him, we got nothing in return.

The idea that most goalies continue to perform at a high level into their late thirties is pure fiction. Some continue to be useful (as was true with Nabokov and Rollie) but few perform at the same level.




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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
Or the Canucks could put him on $125 waivers and terminate his contract outright. How is Luongo walking away from millions if his contract is terminated? Again, do you honestly not think some team will sign him as a UFA?

And again, Luongo said himself he would tear up his contract if he could. He said that in a press conference. Whatever you think or whatever the media thinks is irrelevant. Luongo is the one making the decision here, and he said himself that he would do it.
Luongo said he would tear up the contract IF HE COULD. But, in the new CBA, NHL contracts are guaranteed. You can't terminate his contract, and Luongo is not walking away for millions of dollars to make life easier for Nuck fans.

That is fantasy, I'm afraid.

A buyout would bring Luongo 28 million. Find me a single human being who would walk away from that payday out of pride. C'mon.



Quote:
Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
Did I say the Canucks would get a blue chipper? I said if anyone expects the Canucks to retain salary or take on a bad contract that they would be getting a blue chipper. I said I don't see the Canucks trading Luongo away for nothing while taking on salary or retaining salary, because they can simply terminate his contract and not retain any salary, or they can give him up on waivers. It's quite simple.
I think the Nucks will walk out of this situation a stronger team. Luongo will get moved, the payroll will be freed for other acquisitions, and VCR will be back in contention.

I don't think you are going to get any assets of value in whatever exchange occurs, however.

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06-13-2013, 02:44 PM
  #234
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Originally Posted by cosmicnavigator View Post
It depends, the ones intrested are the cap floor teams that could benefit from it. They would welcome a cap penalty so they reach the floor.

But what if the likes of NYI trade for Luongo by the time they are contenders they have dead capspace.
Well a floor team would have 5 years where they are paying above his cap-hit, so they likely wouldn't be interested in acquiring him as a "cap anchor".

Also, the penalty will account for ~2% of an 80 million dollar cap....

Mirtle projects the cap to be 80-90 million during Luongos retirement years.
I can't remember where I saw it, but I saw (I believe) Mirtle also had minimum salaries projected ~1 million dollars at that time as well, so by the time the penalties come around, it really could be no different from having a 13th forward...

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06-13-2013, 02:44 PM
  #235
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Funny, that "fact" altered three days later to MacArthur + Colborne + Scrivens + 2nd.
if i hear any more of Dreger's various bleats referred to as fact I'm going to vomit..

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06-13-2013, 02:46 PM
  #236
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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
And how does that make sense? Why would the Canucks take back salary while giving Luongo away when they can give him away without taking any salary back via $125 waivers? Explain that one.
Because in your fantasy, Luongo walks away from a guaranteed contract by not reporting.

You were dead wrong about your initial valuation of Luongo. I guess trying to save face is the next course of action.

Stop ignoring the facts. He's a good goalie, with a terrible contract.

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06-13-2013, 02:48 PM
  #237
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Originally Posted by Darth Milbury View Post
I think the Nucks will walk out of this situation a stronger team. Luongo will get moved, and you're payroll will be freed for other acquisitions.

I don't think you are going to get any assets of value in whatever exchange occurs, however.
I have said it before: I don't think his return will be gold by any means. I think it will be a modest return.

By modest, I think some combination of draft picks (2nd/3rd rounders/equivalent prospects), and/or 1-2 serviceable depth players (sort of like the Van-Minny thread where the suggestion is Brodziak + Clutterbuck + Konopka for Luongo + Raymond/Lapierres rights).

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06-13-2013, 02:51 PM
  #238
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Originally Posted by kack zassian View Post
I have said it before: I don't think his return will be gold by any means. I think it will be a modest return.

By modest, I think some combination of draft picks (2nd/3rd rounders/equivalent prospects), and/or 1-2 serviceable depth players (sort of like the Van-Minny thread where the suggestion is Brodziak + Clutterbuck + Konopka for Luongo + Raymond/Lapierres rights).
I don't think Luongo will get a modest return at all. What motivation would teams have to handcuff themselves with that contract?

Vancouver would have to take salary back and/or include an enticing asset IMO.

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06-13-2013, 02:52 PM
  #239
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Stop ignoring the facts. He's a good goalie, with a terrible contract.
I think the level to which people say it is terrible is overplayed.

This isn't a Scott Gomez caliber contract where a terrible player, at a terrible cap hit is signed for a terrible length.

This is a high-end player, with an excellent cap hit, with a terrible length.

A lot of the negatives of his contract (cap penalties, under a cap projected at 80-90 million), are mitigated by the current benefits (~700k cap savings over 5 years under a 64 (increasing) cap).

It won't effect his value to the point of a buyout/a late pick.

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06-13-2013, 02:53 PM
  #240
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kack zassian View Post
I have said it before: I don't think his return will be gold by any means. I think it will be a modest return.

By modest, I think some combination of draft picks (2nd/3rd rounders/equivalent prospects), and/or 1-2 serviceable depth players (sort of like the Van-Minny thread where the suggestion is Brodziak + Clutterbuck + Konopka for Luongo + Raymond/Lapierres rights).

I think your take on this has been very reasonable from the start.

And, I think what you are expecting is very doable.

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06-13-2013, 02:54 PM
  #241
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Originally Posted by EscapeGoat View Post
I don't think Luongo will get a modest return at all. What motivation would teams have to handcuff themselves with that contract?

Vancouver would have to take salary back and/or include an enticing asset IMO.
Mirtle projects the league minimum salaries to be comparable to the cap-penalty by the time he retires.

It would be like trading with Phoenix and them saying "Ok but the deal is you have to keep Paul Bissonette as your 14th forward for the next 2 years.."

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06-13-2013, 02:55 PM
  #242
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Originally Posted by NYVanfan View Post
if i hear any more of Dreger's various bleats referred to as fact I'm going to vomit..

I have very little respect for Dreger and basically see him as a rumor monger who panders to his audience.

I trust almost nothing of what he has written about Luongo.

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06-13-2013, 02:58 PM
  #243
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Originally Posted by EscapeGoat View Post
Because in your fantasy, Luongo walks away from a guaranteed contract by not reporting.

You were dead wrong about your initial valuation of Luongo. I guess trying to save face is the next course of action.

Stop ignoring the facts. He's a good goalie, with a terrible contract.
How is it fantasy when Luongo said so himself? Of the two of us it seems that you're the one who's ignoring the facts.

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06-13-2013, 02:59 PM
  #244
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I think your take on this has been very reasonable from the start.

And, I think what you are expecting is very doable.
I don't think anyone is being unreasonable and asking for the sky.

I honestly think a lot of people just haven't done their research on the contract, and you end up with a "mob-like" mentality on hfboards (because.. well its hfboards).

I don't think we will see a 1-1 trade (no Luongo for Couturier, etc etc).

But I think there will be a quantity of "mid-tier" pieces coming up that are reasonably valuable assets. (We have traded away a lot of 2nd/3rd round picks the last few years), and we lack quality bottom 6 players.

I don't think its unreasonable to think we can fix our bottom 6/restock out pool with a couple picks in a Luongo trade.

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06-13-2013, 03:01 PM
  #245
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Originally Posted by Darth Milbury View Post
I have very little respect for Dreger and basically see him as a rumor monger who panders to his audience.

I trust almost nothing of what he has written about Luongo.
Things I notice:
Bob Mackenzie retweets facts that Darren Dreger announces (player x signed, this guy is now the coach of team y, etc).

Bobby Mac doesn't touch any of his "speculation"/unconfirmed reports with a 10 foot pole.

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06-13-2013, 03:05 PM
  #246
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Originally Posted by Darth Milbury View Post
No, you're missing the point. Everybody agrees that Luongo is an elite goaltender. The problem I had with your post was the suggestion the contract wasn't a major issue (and, in fact, THE major issue) in the trade scenario.

Yeah, Luongo is a superb netminder. He also has an albatross of a contract and that contract is not going away and it will determine his trade value.
Maybe if you didn't put words in my mouth you would understand better. Where did I state his contract was not a major issue?

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With all due respect to an informed poster, have you really watched all of those netminders in action? I watched every single game Nabokov played this year. He was meh at best in the early going, excellent down the stretch run, and horrendous in the playoffs. he was probably the main reason Pitt beat us. The decline is obvious.

And, btw, Nabokov has essentially agreed to terms, per Newsday, so the UFA thing is not the issue. He simply isn't good enough to carry the load anymore and most Isles fans would like to see a younger guy as #1.

I also saw Roloson in his twilight years. He had some great nights but was also a shadow of his former self. I thought he was just dreadful in his last year in EDM. And, when the Isles moved him, we got nothing in return.

The idea that most goalies continue to perform at a high level into their late thirties is pure fiction. Some continue to be useful (as was true with Nabokov and Rollie) but few perform at the same level.
So Nabokov's hot finish, and all-around season was good enough for the Islanders to get into the playoffs. Nabokov also has never been as good of a goalie as Luongo over his career. So one could reasonably expect Luongo to be better.

Interesting on Nabokov re-signing though. That should squash any Luongo to NYI rumours going forward.

Most goalies have been dreadful in Edmonton. That team went downhill fast. Roloson was great as a 40 year old goalie in Tampa before the wheels fell off his last year. Ed Belfour was another goalie who played very well in his late 30's.


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Originally Posted by Darth Milbury View Post
Luongo said he would tear up the contract IF HE COULD. But, in the new CBA, NHL contracts are guaranteed. You can't terminate his contract, and Luongo is not walking away for millions of dollars to make life easier for Nuck fans.

That is fantasy, I'm afraid.

A buyout would bring Luongo 28 million. Find me a single human being who would walk away from that payday out of pride. C'mon.
You don't see how you are completely contradicting yourself? Luongo said he would tear up his contract if he could. Yes, glad we agree. Now the question is how can Luongo do that? Well, the answer is simple. If he clears $125 waivers (which he would need to do in order to be bought out anyway) all he needs to do is not report. That's it. Don't report, contract terminated. Going back to our agreement that Luongo indeed was the person on camera on live TV who made that comment, now we have discussed what needs to be done in order for Luongo to tear up that contract. How is that fantasy?

Or do you think that Luongo could just tear up that contract and on his way out of the door the Canucks would hand him a cheque for $28M?


Quote:
Originally Posted by Darth Milbury View Post
I think the Nucks will walk out of this situation a stronger team. Luongo will get moved, the payroll will be freed for other acquisitions, and VCR will be back in contention.

I don't think you are going to get any assets of value in whatever exchange occurs, however.
If the Canucks don't get any assets of value, then that means the Canucks aren't taking back any bad contracts or withholding any of Luongo's salary. Why do I make this claim? Because of the avenues discussed above where if the Canucks are letting go of Luongo for 0 value they can do so without having to buy him out or withhold salary, all for the low low fee of $125.

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06-13-2013, 03:07 PM
  #247
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How is it fantasy when Luongo said so himself? Of the two of us it seems that you're the one who's ignoring the facts.

Luongo never said he would walk away from the contract. He said he wished he didn't have that contract. I'm sure he wishes now that he signed a front-loaded deal that would have allowed him flexibility at this point in his career. That doesn't mean he is going to burn 28 million in an ashtray just to be gone from VCR.

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06-13-2013, 03:14 PM
  #248
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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
Maybe if you didn't put words in my mouth you would understand better. Where did I state his contract was not a major issue?

See the below.


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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
Anyone who thinks the Canucks would buyout Luongo is flat out wrong. The whole concept makes zero sense whatsoever. Buyouts are for players who aren't worth their contract, but wouldn't necessarily leave their current team if given the chance. If all 29 other teams decide they don't want to acquire a franchise goalie for 50 cents on the dollar (because let's be fair, if Luongo's contract ended 4 years sooner and/or there wasn't so much ignorance surrounding it, he'd be returning a blue chipper +)

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So Nabokov's hot finish, and all-around season was good enough for the Islanders to get into the playoffs. Nabokov also has never been as good of a goalie as Luongo over his career. So one could reasonably expect Luongo to be better.

How many ROY awards did Luongo win? In his prime, Nabokov was easily Luongo's equal.

Quote:
Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
Interesting on Nabokov re-signing though. That should squash any Luongo to NYI rumours going forward.


I never said that a goalie wouldn't remain useful until late in his career. I just don't think it is realistic to expect most elite goalies to perform at that level until they hit 40.


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Interesting on Nabokov re-signing though. That should squash any Luongo to NYI rumours going forward.
I doubt that. The Luongo to Island stuff was always a silly fantasy that had a chance only in the minds of some Nuck fans. that didn't stop it for going on and on here. Much like the Leaf fans and the McCabe and Komisarek stuff years ago. You guys invented it out of wishful thinking, and it lived on in wild media speculation. Never had a shred of foundation in reality.

No reason realism should suddenly hit now.







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You don't see how you are completely contradicting yourself? Luongo said he would tear up his contract if he could. Yes, glad we agree. Now the question is how can Luongo do that? Well, the answer is simple. If he clears $125 waivers (which he would need to do in order to be bought out anyway) all he needs to do is not report. That's it. Don't report, contract terminated. Going back to our agreement that Luongo indeed was the person on camera on live TV who made that comment, now we have discussed what needs to be done in order for Luongo to tear up that contract. How is that fantasy?

Or do you think that Luongo could just tear up that contract and on his way out of the door the Canucks would hand him a cheque for $28M? .
Luongo NEVER said he would tear up his contract. He said he wished he didn't have it. That isn't the same at all.

I think he wishes he had signed the typical, front-loaded star deal so that he would have a chance of moving on now without all that drama.



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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
If the Canucks don't get any assets of value, then that means the Canucks aren't taking back any bad contracts or withholding any of Luongo's salary. Why do I make this claim? Because of the avenues discussed above where if the Canucks are letting go of Luongo for 0 value they can do so without having to buy him out or withhold salary, all for the low low fee of $125.
There is no possibility of this happening. That is every bit as wishful fantasy as the Dipietro silliness was.

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06-13-2013, 03:15 PM
  #249
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Darth Milbury View Post
Luongo never said he would walk away from the contract. He said he wished he didn't have that contract. I'm sure he wishes now that he signed a front-loaded deal that would have allowed him flexibility at this point in his career. That doesn't mean he is going to burn 28 million in an ashtray just to be gone from VCR.
Agreed. It's wishful thinking.

I think Y2K is trying to interpret Luongo's comments in such a way as to suit his agenda.

His interpretation of Luongo's initial value just shows how lost he really is about this whole saga.

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06-13-2013, 03:18 PM
  #250
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Darth Milbury View Post
Luongo never said he would walk away from the contract. He said he wished he didn't have that contract. I'm sure he wishes now that he signed a front-loaded deal that would have allowed him flexibility at this point in his career. That doesn't mean he is going to burn 28 million in an ashtray just to be gone from VCR.
Luongo said "I would tear up my contract if I could." How is that different from not reporting so his contract will be void? Explain that one. Tearing up his contract is the same thing as walking away from all that money.

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