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Roberto Luongo to... ANYWHERE!

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Old
06-17-2013, 01:50 PM
  #501
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Originally Posted by Kbs View Post
This will be a fun thread. All it's going to take is one ridiculous comment from someone and this thread will be 20 pages in no time.
Don't be ridiculous, this thread won't even come close to 20 pages

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06-17-2013, 01:51 PM
  #502
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zoombie View Post
Cap hit is what Edmonton is going to be concerned about, especially if they plan to keep all 8 of their first overalls at that point.
The cap penalty when he retires is only 1.6m for 3 years.(assuming he can't be LTIRed or traded to a cap floor team, in which case there is zero cap penalty)


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06-17-2013, 02:08 PM
  #503
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Originally Posted by Zoombie View Post
Cap hit is what Edmonton is going to be concerned about, especially if they plan to keep all 8 of their first overalls at that point.
In all fairness a 5.3 million $ contract is below average for a quality starting goaltender.

The difference between Dubnyk and Luongo is ~1.8 million $

Plus with only 1 year left on his deal, he could very easily end up with a 4.5-5 million dollar caphit (making the difference extremely meager).

Reason why Edmonton would make sense *obviously my opinion
- Luongo can steal games/put a team on his back
- Could make Edmonton a playoff team
- By the time Luongo retires, the Kids will be 27 years old or less (entering their prime).

- This gives the Oilers a 5 year window to develop a young goalie behind Luongo like Vancouver did with Schneider or LA with Bernier. (Lets say a kid who is ~20 now, and would be ~25 when Luongo leaves, giving you a goaltender entering his prime, who is the same age as the rest of the core).

- Before people mention cap-penalties and it handcuffing the Oilers, the cap is projected at 80-90 million when Luongo retires (Mirtles estimates) and a 1.6 million dollar penalty for 3 years would account for ~2% of the total capspace.
- During those 3 years, you would likely have a goaltender on a "Schneider/Rask prove your worth deal" which would mean saving cap-space on goaltending.

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06-17-2013, 02:09 PM
  #504
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
The cap penalty when he retires is only 1.6m for 3 years.(assuming he can't be LTIRed or traded to a cap floor team, in which case there is zero cap penalty)
He is referring to the 5.3 million over the next 5 or so years.

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06-17-2013, 02:11 PM
  #505
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I will summarize the above post

- Lu gives the Oilers 5 years of solid goaltending (better than Dubnyk)
- The Oilers can groom a young goalie behind Lu (ala Schneider/Bernier)
- Luongo will retire when Hall/Eberle/Yakupov etc are entering their primes

- Edmonton should have a prime-aged goalie (~25 years old) who can take over for Luongo (again, ala Bernier/Schneider/Rask).
- That goalie will be in line with the core of the Oilers.

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06-17-2013, 02:12 PM
  #506
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Darth Milbury View Post
He is referring to the 5.3 million over the next 5 or so years.
In all fairness its ~1.8 million more than Dubnyk this year.. and Dubnyk could very well end up with a cap-hit within a million of Luongos...

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06-17-2013, 02:12 PM
  #507
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Darth Milbury View Post
He is referring to the 5.3 million over the next 5 or so years.
Over the next 5 years, that cap hit is great-to-average for a starting goaltender. When guys like Lehtonen get 6m, or Price 6.5m, and Smith is reportedly looking for 7m, Luongo at 5.3m now is a steal, and even if he regresses to just an average starter over the next couple of years, it's still solid value, especially with an increased cap.

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06-17-2013, 02:16 PM
  #508
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
Over the next 5 years, that cap hit is great-to-average for a starting goaltender. When guys like Lehtonen get 6m, or Price 6.5m, and Smith is reportedly looking for 7m, Luongo at 5.3m now is a steal, and even if he regresses to just an average starter over the next couple of years, it's still solid value, especially with an increased cap.
I'm not arguing with you about the cap hit, I'm clarifying his point.

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06-17-2013, 02:48 PM
  #509
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Originally Posted by kack zassian View Post
In all fairness a 5.3 million $ contract is below average for a quality starting goaltender.
The difference between Dubnyk and Luongo is ~1.8 million $

Plus with only 1 year left on his deal, he could very easily end up with a 4.5-5 million dollar caphit (making the difference extremely meager).

Reason why Edmonton would make sense *obviously my opinion
- Luongo can steal games/put a team on his back
- Could make Edmonton a playoff team
- By the time Luongo retires, the Kids will be 27 years old or less (entering their prime).

- This gives the Oilers a 5 year window to develop a young goalie behind Luongo like Vancouver did with Schneider or LA with Bernier. (Lets say a kid who is ~20 now, and would be ~25 when Luongo leaves, giving you a goaltender entering his prime, who is the same age as the rest of the core).

- Before people mention cap-penalties and it handcuffing the Oilers, the cap is projected at 80-90 million when Luongo retires (Mirtles estimates) and a 1.6 million dollar penalty for 3 years would account for ~2% of the total capspace.
- During those 3 years, you would likely have a goaltender on a "Schneider/Rask prove your worth deal" which would mean saving cap-space on goaltending.
I think maybe 1 or 2 of the top 20 goalies for SV % made over $5.3 M this year.

Shortened season sure but I dunno about "average".

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06-17-2013, 02:55 PM
  #510
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eyeball11 View Post
I think maybe 1 or 2 of the top 20 goalies for SV % made over $5.3 M this year.

Shortened season sure but I dunno about "average".
IIRC after you account for raises amoung UFAs, Luongo will have something like the 13th highest cap hit for goalies next year...that's pretty damn close to the mean and likely close to average for a starting goalie being that nobody in the top 30 will be under $2M and the highest 7-8 hits will be over $6M are (all based on 30 goalies since there are 30 teams).

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06-17-2013, 02:57 PM
  #511
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Originally Posted by eyeball11 View Post
I think maybe 1 or 2 of the top 20 goalies for SV % made over $5.3 M this year.

Shortened season sure but I dunno about "average".
In all fairness, how much of a cap-hit do you think Luongo would get if he was a free agent July 5th?

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06-17-2013, 03:20 PM
  #512
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Originally Posted by kack zassian View Post
In all fairness, how much of a cap-hit do you think Luongo would get if he was a free agent July 5th?
$6m tops.

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06-17-2013, 03:25 PM
  #513
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Originally Posted by smackdaddy View Post
$6m tops.
I would say closer to $7-7.5M.

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06-17-2013, 03:38 PM
  #514
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NHL GMS have a self-destructive paradoxical quality. They'll be scared to trade for long-term high cap hit contracts, but then sign players to those contracts themselves.

I agree with Nuck fans though that Luongo would not be signed for a 5.3 million cap hit, and the if he was a UFA would go in the 7 to 7.5 million range.

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06-17-2013, 04:30 PM
  #515
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Originally Posted by smackdaddy View Post
$6m tops.
So you get 700k savings up from in a 64 mil cap (~1% of total cap space) over 5 years (obviously the % drops as the cap increases) in exchange for a 1.6 million cap penalty in an 80-90 million dollar cap (1.7-2% of cap, the 80-90 is based off of Mirtles estimates).

There really isn't a substantial difference between present value of cap-savings and future value of cap penalties. The penalty is essentially the trade off of the up-front savings.

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06-17-2013, 04:36 PM
  #516
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Originally Posted by Darth Milbury View Post
NHL GMS have a self-destructive paradoxical quality. They'll be scared to trade for long-term high cap hit contracts, but then sign players to those contracts themselves.

I agree with Nuck fans though that Luongo would not be signed for a 5.3 million cap hit, and the if he was a UFA would go in the 7 to 7.5 million range.
Its kind of like my above post.

Yes, these contracts have penalties attached to them.

But really the tradeoff is 5 years of ~1% total cap savings, versus 3 years at the end of ~2% of the cap penalties.

I understand Luongos contract is complex, and has penalties attached to it. But I really don't think it is the anchor people make it out to be

Is ~2% of your cap crippling? The Leafs have 3.12% of their cap space this year tied up in Armstrong/Tucker buyouts. Didn't really effect their ability to compete. Very few teams spend within 1-2% of the cap.

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06-17-2013, 04:37 PM
  #517
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hemsky for luongo straight up.

oilers shed 5mil this season, get goalie for the next 5 to 7 years
nucks get rid of luongo distraction, get winger to play with swedins

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06-17-2013, 04:40 PM
  #518
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Originally Posted by CornKicker View Post
hemsky for luongo straight up.

oilers shed 5mil this season, get goalie for the next 5 to 7 years
nucks get rid of luongo distraction, get winger to play with swedins
Would you be willing to add one of your 2nds? Would be nice for us to get one to make up for the one we lost in the Roy trade.

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06-17-2013, 04:44 PM
  #519
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Originally Posted by CornKicker View Post
hemsky for luongo straight up.

oilers shed 5mil this season, get goalie for the next 5 to 7 years
nucks get rid of luongo distraction, get winger to play with swedins
Thats also a tough fit because is would essentially have to be Hemsky or Booth (unless the Oilers at 1/2 the salary).

Hemsky @ 1/2 + 2nd Rounder 2013
for
Luongo

Would be something I could deal with.

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06-17-2013, 04:44 PM
  #520
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Would you be willing to add one of your 2nds? Would be nice for us to get one to make up for the one we lost in the Roy trade.
maybe a 3rd? depends oilers are taking the huge finanical risk. chances are Lu pans out and would be solid for the oilers. and hemsky is going anyway. we have a late ana 2nd rounder so if we were to give that one up i wouldnt be upset. Especially because we could probably get it back dealing dubnyk as he would not be needed imo

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06-17-2013, 04:46 PM
  #521
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Originally Posted by kack zassian View Post
Thats also a tough fit because is would essentially have to be Hemsky or Booth (unless the Oilers at 1/2 the salary).

Hemsky @ 1/2 + 2nd Rounder 2013
for
Luongo

Would be something I could deal with.
well in all honesty you could afford booth and hemsky as neither will play 82 games, combined they play 120max, so you can skim a little cap hit off the top for that

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06-17-2013, 04:56 PM
  #522
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kack zassian View Post
So you get 700k savings up from in a 64 mil cap (~1% of total cap space) over 5 years (obviously the % drops as the cap increases) in exchange for a 1.6 million cap penalty in an 80-90 million dollar cap (1.7-2% of cap, the 80-90 is based off of Mirtles estimates).

There really isn't a substantial difference between present value of cap-savings and future value of cap penalties. The penalty is essentially the trade off of the up-front savings.
Not to mention there are opportunities to circumvent the future cap penalties, or situations where they wouldn't apply like LTIR. As a GM trading for Lu I wouldn't plan on avoiding the cap penalty, but it's certainly possible it could work out that way.

As Darth Millbury eluded to, the risks of trading for Luongo's contract are not necessarily any higher than many contracts acquired via unrestricted free agency.

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06-17-2013, 05:23 PM
  #523
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Originally Posted by CornKicker View Post
well in all honesty you could afford booth and hemsky as neither will play 82 games, combined they play 120max, so you can skim a little cap hit off the top for that
In order for it to work that way, 1 of them would likely have to be on IR whenever the other was healthy.

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06-17-2013, 05:35 PM
  #524
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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
I would say closer to $7-7.5M.
Wow.

I would laugh so hard if anyone signed Luongo to a contract with a +7M AAV.

Unless it was the Oilers. Then I would quietly weep in the corner.

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06-17-2013, 05:49 PM
  #525
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Originally Posted by tempest2i View Post
Wow.

I would laugh so hard if anyone signed Luongo to a contract with a +7M AAV.

Unless it was the Oilers. Then I would quietly weep in the corner.
It's market value for what top goalies are signing for.

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