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Roberto Luongo to... ANYWHERE!

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Old
06-25-2013, 05:48 PM
  #1001
Vankiller Whale
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Couturioux View Post
I can't see a scenario where Luongo isn't bought out, that contract is horrific under the new CBA.
You definitely know more about our team and Luongo's contract than Canucks fans do.

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06-25-2013, 05:49 PM
  #1002
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Originally Posted by Diamonddog01 View Post
If Columbus can get Luongo for pennies on the dollar, vs a nutjob in Bryz - who do you think they take?

I find it ridiculous that they would pass on Luongo for a 2nd round pick or whatever and go after Bryzgalov.

As for Florida - Markstrom needs a few years of tutelage as a backup, it would be stupid to rush him and give him tons of starts as you state. Luongo could do for Markstrom what he did for Schneids.

These are just possibilities, and another is that he gets bought out. But the ones who believe that's a given are the ones who don't understand the contract or the number of outs and flexibility it provides.
First of all... €6,714,000 through '17-18. This is seriously starting to reach the pathetic side now. Do you understand, that Luongo is _34 years old_, do you understand, that his contract reaches all the way to '21-22. His deal is a typical "you retire here X"-deal. That deal is PENALIZED HEAVILY by the new CBA.

FLA taking Luongo means they're on the hook to pay Luongo's salary way after Markstrom is better than Luongo. I'm sure they'd make an offer for a UFA Luongo, but if they actually take his contract, I'll be veeeeery surprised. They're not a rich club.

It seems to me, that you're completely missing the fact that any team that takes Luongo, will be stuck with this same penalized deal. Those teams have cheaper options (I'm talking in tens of millions here).

Yet, we who disagree that his deal has such cool flexibility don't understand? I'd counter that you don't. If any team takes him (if they do, you'd be happy with a 5th), they're on the hook for around $30-35M of his salary until it drops. Do you seriously think teams will look at this deal and say "HEY, let's take this guy! He is gradually getting worse and paid the same for years! This is our guy!!"

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06-25-2013, 05:50 PM
  #1003
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pleese make investings in this goalie for only nine more next years!! no worries, great deal, wish I did not have to part with elite goalie myself!

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06-25-2013, 05:54 PM
  #1004
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Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post


pleese make investings in this goalie for only nine more next years!! no worries, great deal, wish I did not have to part with elite goalie myself!

That's really a terrible graph that doesn’t really show much.

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06-25-2013, 05:54 PM
  #1005
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Couturioux View Post
I can't see a scenario where Luongo isn't bought out, that contract is horrific under the new CBA.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Charon of Styx View Post
Waivers
Luongo + 2nd for a bag of pucks
Luongo + 2nd + 2nd - for a bag of pucks
Luongo + 1st - for a bag of pucks

All 4 deals better for the Nucks than to give Luongo 27 million. The Nucks don't even get pucks in a buyout.
Honest Question: If Luongo isn't bought out/waived/traded with assets for nothing will you guys admit your valuation was terribly off?

I will definitely eat crow if he is bought out, because I have been adamant that he will yield a modest return throughout this process.

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06-25-2013, 05:55 PM
  #1006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Darth Milbury View Post
It was actually you who started this entire "debate." I pointed out that Staple, McKenzie and others have said there were ZERO trade discussions between the teams, and you rejected that by saying that there were "bloggers" who had said differently. You were the one who challenged me, not the other way around. So, understandably, I continue to call you on it.
You are mistaken my friend. I said there is a possibility he could go to the Isles, and that's true whether I have sources or not. You repeatedly stated that there is absolutely no chance, and posted one beat writer who jokingly retorted only if unlikely conditions were met. That is not conclusive, or any more evidence than the NYI blogger who stated that he got sense a trade could still go down.

McKenzie stating there has been no trade talks up to this point is quite different but him stating there will never be a trade between the two teams. That is what you seem to be missing.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Darth Milbury View Post
So, let me take up your challenge, and make the goalposts nice and wide for you. Find me one link - just one. It can be a blogger, a journalist, one of your friends, another poster, etc. And, all that link needs to do is present real hard information obtained directly from the organizations themselves. As long as you can find a single credible source that has real contacts (and is not just offering an opinion about what they think could make sense) that would do it for me.
You are the one changing the goalposts-not me. You cried and whined for a source, and I provided one. Then, as that ran counter to your argument, that source had to be a beat reporter, in print with a link to the team. Then when a blogger broke the Bryzgalov report you decided that some bloggers are ok.

My position has remain unchanged, the entire time. Which is that it's a possibility that Luongo goes to the Islanders, regardless of what one beat reporter jokingly comments on in twitter. I don't need a link to someone in the Islanders organization to make that claim. It's a possibility. It might not be a very likely one, but it is still a possibility. That's what you seem to missing in all of this.

You are taking something you don't like (Luongo going to Long Island) and trying to convince both the other posters in this thread, and yourself, that there is no possibility this will occur. This is a statistical impossibility.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Darth Milbury View Post
Now, if you want to say "I have no evidence, but I personally think this makes sense and so do various bloggers and commentators.." - that's fine too. I agree with that logic. It is a chatboard after all.

But, that wouldn't explain why you went out of your way to argue that all your "sources" where as good as anybody else's. In fact, you have no sources at all.
Actually, I've already provided a source (not that I needed to), including an NYI blogger, McKenzie and Elliot Friedman. You just don't like them, and have changed the goalposts as they don't fit your stringent requirements of acceptable sources - ones you personally approve of.

I don't need a source to state that Luongo to the Isles is a possibility and many have said as much.

You may not like it, but that's OK. Sometimes in life things happen we don't enjoy or like.

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06-25-2013, 05:56 PM
  #1007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by crowi View Post
. That deal is PENALIZED HEAVILY by the new CBA.
~2% of total cap space for 3 years is penalized heavily?

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06-25-2013, 05:57 PM
  #1008
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Originally Posted by fasterthanlight View Post
That's really a terrible graph that doesn’t really show much.
Nuh uh.

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06-25-2013, 05:58 PM
  #1009
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kack zassian View Post
Honest Question: If Luongo isn't bought out/waived/traded with assets for nothing will you guys admit your valuation was terribly off?

I will definitely eat crow if he is bought out, because I have been adamant that he will yield a modest return throughout this process.
I agree he won't be bought out, that is all I'm saying.

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06-25-2013, 05:58 PM
  #1010
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Originally Posted by crowi View Post
First of all... €6,714,000 through '17-18. This is seriously starting to reach the pathetic side now. Do you understand, that Luongo is _34 years old_, do you understand, that his contract reaches all the way to '21-22. His deal is a typical "you retire here X"-deal. That deal is PENALIZED HEAVILY by the new CBA.

FLA taking Luongo means they're on the hook to pay Luongo's salary way after Markstrom is better than Luongo. I'm sure they'd make an offer for a UFA Luongo, but if they actually take his contract, I'll be veeeeery surprised. They're not a rich club.

It seems to me, that you're completely missing the fact that any team that takes Luongo, will be stuck with this same penalized deal. Those teams have cheaper options (I'm talking in tens of millions here).

Yet, we who disagree that his deal has such cool flexibility don't understand? I'd counter that you don't. If any team takes him (if they do, you'd be happy with a 5th), they're on the hook for around $30-35M of his salary until it drops. Do you seriously think teams will look at this deal and say "HEY, let's take this guy! He is gradually getting worse and paid the same for years! This is our guy!!"
Here's one option, and I'm not even that versed in the CBA. Luongo, like many goalies (including Khabibulin and Brodeur currently), play untils he is 40.

He still has 3 years left at 5.3M. Ohhhh - scary stuff! What if...his team decides to put him on injury reserve or suspend him and not pay him, and uses his cap hit to reach the cap floor? He doesn't retire until the 3 years are up, at which point the retirement becomes official.

That's crazy you say! That has never happened. Well the Isles just did that. Shocking!! Total insanity!!

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06-25-2013, 05:58 PM
  #1011
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Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post
Nuh uh.
Just saying that drawing a red line doesn't indicate a trend.

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06-25-2013, 05:58 PM
  #1012
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Originally Posted by fasterthanlight View Post
That's really a terrible graph that doesn’t really show much.
http://www.hockey-reference.com/leaders/gps_top_10.html

It is a pretty legit stat.

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06-25-2013, 05:59 PM
  #1013
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Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post

plaese make investings in this goalie for only nine more next years!! no worries, great deal, wish I did not have to part with elite goalie myself!
Regarding his 2003-2004 Season for Point Shares
Quote:
He did have the highest workload of any goalie in NHL history that season. That workload of overrated in the point shares system. This is a significant problem that must be fixed in order for goaltender rankings from the point shares system to be taken more seriously.
http://kuklaskorner.com/index.php/ps...es_season_ever

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06-25-2013, 06:00 PM
  #1014
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Originally Posted by kack zassian View Post
~2% of total cap space for 3 years is penalized heavily?
A lot of teams don't care about cap space. They care more about salary.

I'd say a low budget team stuck with a $35M deal for a 34 year old bench-warmer gets penalized quite heavily in a different way. If you disagree, I hope your team keeps him.

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06-25-2013, 06:01 PM
  #1015
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Originally Posted by Scott Scissons View Post
I'd buy that, but that "trend-line" made me cringe.

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06-25-2013, 06:02 PM
  #1016
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What exactly are goalie point shares?

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06-25-2013, 06:04 PM
  #1017
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Originally Posted by fasterthanlight View Post
Just saying that drawing a red line doesn't indicate a trend.
It's a guesstimate that fits well enough.

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06-25-2013, 06:05 PM
  #1018
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Originally Posted by Diamonddog01 View Post
Here's one option, and I'm not even that versed in the CBA. Luongo, like many goalies (including Khabibulin and Brodeur currently), play untils he is 40.

He still has 3 years left at 5.3M. Ohhhh - scary stuff! What if...his team decides to put him on injury reserve or suspend him and not pay him, and uses his cap hit to reach the cap floor? He doesn't retire until the 3 years are up, at which point the retirement becomes official.

That's crazy you say! That has never happened. Well the Isles just did that. Shocking!! Total insanity!!
Man... his cap hit is $5,333,333, salary is $6,714,000 until '17-18. Do you know the difference between salary and a cap hit? His salary goes down after '17-18, yet his deal goes on for another 5 years.

Team like FLA would very much prefer his salary was $5,333,333 and cap hit $6,714,000.

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06-25-2013, 06:05 PM
  #1019
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Originally Posted by crowi View Post
First of all... €6,714,000 through '17-18. This is seriously starting to reach the pathetic side now. Do you understand, that Luongo is _34 years old_, do you understand, that his contract reaches all the way to '21-22. His deal is a typical "you retire here X"-deal. That deal is PENALIZED HEAVILY by the new CBA.

FLA taking Luongo means they're on the hook to pay Luongo's salary way after Markstrom is better than Luongo. I'm sure they'd make an offer for a UFA Luongo, but if they actually take his contract, I'll be veeeeery surprised. They're not a rich club.

It seems to me, that you're completely missing the fact that any team that takes Luongo, will be stuck with this same penalized deal. Those teams have cheaper options (I'm talking in tens of millions here).

Yet, we who disagree that his deal has such cool flexibility don't understand? I'd counter that you don't. If any team takes him (if they do, you'd be happy with a 5th), they're on the hook for around $30-35M of his salary until it drops. Do you seriously think teams will look at this deal and say "HEY, let's take this guy! He is gradually getting worse and paid the same for years! This is our guy!!"

Cap hit is 5.3 million,I know that may not seem like a big difference but is a factor.

When its mentioned that he will be bought out and there are no ways around that I tend to scratch my head and wonder why other factors are being ignored. He could be traded with Vancouver keeping part of the salary and Im supposed to believe no one would jump at that?
Im sure there are many ways to play this and I think a buyout is long way down that list.
I see so many issues in other teams goalies that I really think we have a lot of posturing and when the time comes it comes. I wouldnt worry to much about Vancouver needing to buyout Lou.
Every team has its land mines(2021 is a long time away right,Getzlaf and Perry say hello!) and Im sure we get over this one just fine.


***Edit *** I see we posted the same time and you killed my point

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06-25-2013, 06:07 PM
  #1020
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Originally Posted by crowi View Post
A lot of teams don't care about cap space. They care more about salary.

I'd say a low budget team stuck with a $35M deal for a 34 year old bench-warmer gets penalized quite heavily in a different way. If you disagree, I hope your team keeps him.
You mentioned that the deal is HEAVILY penalized in the new CBA (I am assuming you are referring to the cap penalty for when he retires, correct?).

So is a ~2% of total cap penalty something you would consider a heavy penalty?
Is it a heavy penalty when weighed against the present value of his cap savings? (I ballpark it at ~700k/5 years)

I never mentioned his salary, I just disagree with you saying this deal is HEAVILY penalized...

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06-25-2013, 06:08 PM
  #1021
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Diamonddog01 View Post
You are mistaken my friend. I said there is a possibility he could go to the Isles, and that's true whether I have sources or not. You repeatedly stated that there is absolutely no chance, and posted one beat writer who jokingly retorted only if unlikely conditions were met. That is not conclusive, or any more evidence than the NYI blogger who stated that he got sense a trade could still go down.

McKenzie stating there has been no trade talks up to this point is quite different but him stating there will never be a trade between the two teams. That is what you seem to be missing.
Fair enough. Then you admit there have been no discussions between the teams.

Good enough for me.

Oh, and I'm glad you consider me a friend. The feeling is actually mutual (meaning, no hard feelings).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Diamonddog01 View Post
You are the one changing the goalposts-not me. You cried and whined for a source, and I provided one. Then, as that ran counter to your argument, that source had to be a beat reporter, in print with a link to the team.
Once again, can be a blogger, your neighbor, your ex-girlfriend. I want ONE source that describes actual trade talks between the team based on legitimate inside information. You still haven't given me that.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Diamonddog01 View Post
Then when a blogger broke the Bryzgalov report you decided that some bloggers are ok.
That wasn't a blogger. That was a journalist whose reports are on NHL.Com and other legitimate outlets. His source was a direct quote from the GM. I don't see how you can lump that in with fans and bloggers speculating about what they personally think can happen.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Diamonddog01 View Post
My position has remain unchanged, the entire time. Which is that it's a possibility that Luongo goes to the Islanders, regardless of what one beat reporter jokingly comments on in twitter. I don't need a link to someone in the Islanders organization to make that claim. It's a possibility. It might not be a very likely one, but it is still a possibility. That's what you seem to missing in all of this.

You are taking something you don't like (Luongo going to Long Island) and trying to convince both the other posters in this thread, and yourself, that there is no possibility this will occur. This is a statistical impossibility.

Actually, I've already provided a source (not that I needed to), including an NYI blogger, McKenzie and Elliot Friedman. You just don't like them, and have changed the goalposts as they don't fit your stringent requirements of acceptable sources - ones you personally approve of.

Can you reproduce Elliot Friedman's direct quotes about Luongo to the Island? You've claimed this on several occasions.

In fact, Friedman never said anything of the kind. What Friedman said was that Isles wanted to package an asset to get rid of Dipietro. He never hinted, vaguely implied, or suggested anything having to do with Luongo. That's just your creative "extrapolation." I called you on this issue on the Nucks board, and you still haven't responded.

So, I'll say it again: REPRODUCE WHAT FRIEDMAN WROTE ABOUT LUONGO TO THE ISLES.

Can I be any clearer?

As for McKenzie, you nicely ignore everything in his podcast (which I doubt you even listened to, to be honest).

The "source" your reproduced was not a NYI blogger. He was a contributor to a NY based blog site who openly speculated. I really can't see where you would see that as at all convincing. Its ridiculous, in fact.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Diamonddog01 View Post
I don't need a source to state that Luongo to the Isles is a possibility and many have said as much.

You may not like it, but that's OK. Sometimes in life things happen we don't enjoy or like.
Oh, I think it is fine if you and others have that OPINION. But, you were the one who came in here screaming about how your "sources" were as good as Arthur Staple, McKenzie, etc. In fact, you have no sources and this is simply your own personal belief.

Let's just not pretend that there is any basis for it other than what you personally think could happen though and we'll call it a day.


Last edited by Darth Milbury: 06-25-2013 at 06:13 PM.
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06-25-2013, 06:08 PM
  #1022
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You guys are fooling eachother with stupid graphs...

this is what you need to know...

.927 .913 .928 .907 .919 ...these are the %'s of saves he makes over his last 5 years.... he goes from great to average then great to average...he's due for another good year no doubt. I think his number will be even better once he doesnt have a young version of himself looking over his shoulder.

He's still a top 10 goalie, and he probably will be for the next 4 or 5 years.

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06-25-2013, 06:08 PM
  #1023
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kack zassian View Post
Regarding his 2003-2004 Season for Point Shares

http://kuklaskorner.com/index.php/ps...es_season_ever
Even if his PS were overestimated, it was also the best SV% of his career and I'd be willing to bet it was also his largest deviation above the league average SV%. Considering that he did it on such a large workload, it's even more impressive. That was his peak.

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06-25-2013, 06:11 PM
  #1024
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Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post
It's a guesstimate that fits well enough.
I mean, that line doesn't prove that his decline in that stat is due to his play, so you can't really say that Lu is getting worse based off of that graph. Misleading graphs like that make me angry in general. P-values my friend. Plus I'm defending Lu because I think he's a cool guy

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06-25-2013, 06:11 PM
  #1025
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bankerguy View Post
You guys are fooling eachother with stupid graphs...

this is what you need to know...

.927 .913 .928 .907 .919 ...these are the %'s of saves he makes over his last 5 years.... he goes from great to average then great to average...he's due for another good year no doubt. I think his number will be even better once he doesnt have a young version of himself looking over his shoulder.

He's still a top 10 goalie, and he probably will be for the next 4 or 5 years.
There's no such thing as being "due."

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