In 2011, the Sens stunned a lot of people drafting Stefan Noesen at 21st overall. His ranking on average, was 40th, with a ranking as high as 25 (McKeens - only 1st round grade) all the way down to 48th with TSN and 51st with ESPN. Most rankings had him in the 35-45 range. The ZIbanejad pick, while not as big a reach, was still passing on many consensus players who ranked ahead of them (although he was in the top 10).
So obviously the Sens scouts see things differently, and are not afraid to make a pick that looks like a reach. I think their recent success will make them all the more brazen.
So in this draft, who NOT ranked in the top 30 on average, could you see the Sens stunning us again with?
I'll throw out three names:
- Emile Poirier (local boy does it all, although he is looking more and more like a late 1st rounder)
- William Carrier (injured 2nd half of year, otherwise could be consensus 1st rounder)
- Madison Bowey (all the physical tools on D, projected 30-35 range)
Easier to reach when you have 3 picks in the 1st round imo. Makes it easier to gamble.
I doubt they go off the board.
Interesting take. If the 21st pick was the only pick they had in 2011, you don't think they would have gone with Noesen? Given they risked losing Puempel to the Leafs on the next pick, it seems to me Noesen was the BPA available for the Sens (or best forward anyway). Would be an interesting question for Dorion or the Murray's.
Poirier, Carrier and Bowey are all shorter reaches than Noesen was. That's the point.
Many have those three in the 1st round already, although their average draft rank is 2nd round. Just like Noesen.
The pre-draft rankings is nothing more than someones best guess and not a true reflection of how teams view certain players. Ceci in Ottawa's top 5 as an example. Strome going 5 to NYI. People who think Noesen was a reach at 21 did not pay attention, no matter what the draft "experts" were saying. He went right where most teams thought he would go. Vellucci said at the time that he would go 20-25 because of all the teams he talked to that wanted him there.