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Old
06-20-2013, 07:59 PM
  #526
trellaine201
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Originally Posted by canucksfan View Post
Remeber all the BS Buck, Pat and Zaun stating "When you put on the pinstripes, you play better."

Well Wells, Overbay and Hafner suck.
Ya i would hate to see VW stats for the past month or so. Hes gone south!

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06-20-2013, 08:04 PM
  #527
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Jimenez is 4 for 4 tonight with a pair of doubles. Hitting .515 right now. Travis who?

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06-20-2013, 08:14 PM
  #528
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Originally Posted by KuleminFan41 View Post
You're not bringing up anything new that I didn't disagree with.He isn't nearly as bad as people want him to be is all I'm saying. I'm just one of those fans that wants people to call it both ways and not pick and choose purely because people have their own agenda like you are doing yourself with using his numbers vs the rest of the league instead of just using vs catchers which is how it should be. If you don't compare an outfielders defensive abilities to that of an infielder or a catcher why would you compare offensive stats?
What is my agenda? I'm providing the stats that show you he's a below average starting catcher. If he was even average I would acknowledge it and accept that he's doing well for a premium position. He isn't though and the criticism that he's facing is warranted. Also where did I use his numbers vs the rest of the league? I showed you statistics purely against the rest of the starting catchers in the league who have 150> plate appearances for the year. Not cherry picking anything either as I referenced all the major offensive statistics and it all shows that he's below average. But of course you think I'm comparing it to outfielders or any other position in the league. He can't possibly be that bad where only his home runs, ISO (which is analogous to his home run stat), RBI's, runs scored and hits are the only stats where he ranks in the top tier for catchers... right? Unfortunately it is, and all of those minus HR and ISO are dependent on his situational hitting (batting 4th-6th in lineup) and plate appearances (8th most for starting catchers).

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You still ignored the part where I said we're on a winning streak but no one is saying its because of JPA's defence but when we lose its purely because of his defence . Its that stuff that bothers me. We lose its because of him, we win its in spite of him. Honestly, even if he stops striking out, gets his OBP and AVG up , people will still ***** about him oh well
Is JPA's defense the reason why we're on a winning streak? I could have sworn it's because our pitchers are remaining consistently effective and our offense is averaging 5+ (don't know the exact number) runs a game. Nobody ever says JPA is the main reason for a loss unless it's deserving. Don't be so stubborn. If his OBP was even average he'd be a much better piece for this team. That's roughly 70 points higher though, and the 2nd lowest OBP for catchers (with 150> PA) is currently 30 points higher than his. That's absolutely dreadful.

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Baseball doesn't work that way though. Sure in theory if he takes the pitches that went out of the zone would be ball's but a pitcher would then change up their game plan on him erasing those balls. Ya he has single digit walks, but he's only a handful out of being in around 20th lol. Looking stats between catchers theres a 10 walk gap between the top 3 and 4-10
Let the pitcher change his game plan. That's the entire point to hitting. You want the pitcher to adjust to you, not the other way around. This is why Lind has become so respectable this year. It's because he's shown an ability to lay off of pitches out of the zone and connect with ones that go for strikes. JP hasn't even shown an ability to connect with pitches in the strike zone. Also a 10 walk gap is huge at this point in time. Joey Votto has 14 more walks than Prince Fielder, and that gives him a 4% boost in BB%. Walking doesn't even matter anymore with JP though, it's about reducing his K% and putting balls in play. Salvador Perez has the same BB% as JP but ~17% reduction in K%. I'll never expect JP to get that low, but to even drop it down to 20-25% helps him out considerably. To be quite honest though, I don't even expect him to drop it that low.

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06-20-2013, 08:15 PM
  #529
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So if people criticize JP defensively based on multiple defensive metrics, it's shaky considering how unproven those stats are. But if you suddenly anoint him as "one of the best" at pitch framing based on one single, solitary article without any corroborating evidence, that's just fine?

Alright then.
What in the **** are you talking about? You basically said it's OK if people do it when criticizing JP but it's not if using it to praise him.

I posted that it's funny that people criticized him for something when it turns out he's actually good at it, but now pitch framing is a "bad" stat and "not trustworthy. Tell me how it makes sense that when fangraphs defensive measuring was dismissed for JP last season (When he was middle of the pack) because it didn't include pitch framing, but now that it turns out JP is actually good at pitch framing, pitch framing doesn't matter and fangraphs defensive measures are good? It's not even like it's from different people, it's the same people who said fangraphs doesn't have reliable defensive stats and how great a stat pitch framing is that are saying the opposite now. It's a joke. I don't know how any of you can argue that you'll all unbiased anymore, this is pretty damning.

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06-20-2013, 08:20 PM
  #530
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I've never said Fangraphs' defensive metrics are accurate, but I've agreed that there's some respectability to them.

Even then, JP Arencibia ranked 17th out of 28 catchers with 300> PA last year in terms of defense rating. Right around the mean, but still technically below replacement level (according to the metric).

Out of 35 catchers with 250> PA's, he's ranked 21st.

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06-20-2013, 08:32 PM
  #531
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Just noticed Johnson, Dickey, and Wang are our next 3 starters. That's some stiff competition.

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06-20-2013, 08:35 PM
  #532
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Originally Posted by Eyedea View Post
I've never said Fangraphs' defensive metrics are accurate, but I've agreed that there's some respectability to them.

Even then, JP Arencibia ranked 17th out of 28 catchers with 300> PA last year in terms of defense rating. Right around the mean, but still technically below replacement level (according to the metric).

Out of 35 catchers with 250> PA's, he's ranked 21st.
Many here have argued he's the worst defensive catcher in the league. Obviously not true, Fangraphs doesn't support that, so they pointed to pitch framing. Also does not support that.

I've never said anything that suggest he's anything defensively, perhaps the straw effigy of myself has but I have not. My comments are directed at the irony of the responses to the pitch framing stats that suggest he is actually great at it.

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06-20-2013, 08:37 PM
  #533
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Originally Posted by Faidh ar Rud Eigin View Post
Many here have argued he's the worst defensive catcher in the league. Obviously not true, Fangraphs doesn't support that, so they pointed to pitch framing. Also does not support that.

I've never said anything that suggest he's anything defensively, perhaps the straw effigy of myself has but I have not. My comments are directed at the irony of the responses to the pitch framing stats that suggest he is actually great at it.
Not to get sucked in, but I believe the attitude around here is that he is "one of" the worst. Not specifically #30.

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06-20-2013, 08:56 PM
  #534
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Originally Posted by Faidh ar Rud Eigin View Post
What in the **** are you talking about? You basically said it's OK if people do it when criticizing JP but it's not if using it to praise him.

I posted that it's funny that people criticized him for something when it turns out he's actually good at it, but now pitch framing is a "bad" stat and "not trustworthy. Tell me how it makes sense that when fangraphs defensive measuring was dismissed for JP last season (When he was middle of the pack) because it didn't include pitch framing, but now that it turns out JP is actually good at pitch framing, pitch framing doesn't matter and fangraphs defensive measures are good? It's not even like it's from different people, it's the same people who said fangraphs doesn't have reliable defensive stats and how great a stat pitch framing is that are saying the opposite now. It's a joke. I don't know how any of you can argue that you'll all unbiased anymore, this is pretty damning.
I'm "on about" the fact that you keep treating JP being good at pitch framing as conclusive fact when it's been a grand total of 1 article about it and pitch framing metrics and analysis are nowhere near concrete and proven accurate. But at the same time, you've attacked the criticisms of JP's defence based on the idea that defensive metrics are incomplete and not universally accepted (and I will grant that this is true, but usually the criticism of JP's defence comes from both a qualitative and quantitative standpoint). So all the mounds of evidence in favor of calling JP average-to-poor defensively are useless, but the one single, solitary piece of uncorroborated evidence in favor of him being good at pitch framing is beyond reproach. As evidenced by the fact that you have repeated that JP is "great" (your word) at pitch framing as if it's a cosmic truth.

And you're in no position to accuse anyone of bias.

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06-20-2013, 09:00 PM
  #535
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A.J Jimenez went 4 for 5 with two doubles tonight. He's now hitting .500 since returning to New Hampshire. Yikes.

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06-20-2013, 09:02 PM
  #536
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Detroit just walked off the Red Sox!

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06-20-2013, 09:05 PM
  #537
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Detroit just walked off the Red Sox!
Lol I saw that. Andrew Bailey is doodoo.

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06-20-2013, 09:07 PM
  #538
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A.J Jimenez went 4 for 5 with two doubles tonight. He's now hitting .500 since returning to New Hampshire. Yikes.
he's got the hit tool and if his arm is healed, he's got probably better defensive potential than darnaud. pumped for this kid.

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06-20-2013, 09:08 PM
  #539
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he's got the hit tool and if his arm is healed, he's got probably better defensive potential than darnaud. pumped for this kid.
Future face of the franchise.

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06-20-2013, 09:12 PM
  #540
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Lol I saw that. Andrew Bailey is doodoo.
yes he is. also yankees lost so jays gained half a game on both. hopefully by end of the weekend they r right in the thick of things

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06-20-2013, 09:15 PM
  #541
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I'm "on about" the fact that you keep treating JP being good at pitch framing as conclusive fact when it's been a grand total of 1 article about it and pitch framing metrics and analysis are nowhere near concrete and proven accurate. But at the same time, you've attacked the criticisms of JP's defence based on the idea that defensive metrics are incomplete and not universally accepted (and I will grant that this is true, but usually the criticism of JP's defence comes from both a qualitative and quantitative standpoint). So all the mounds of evidence in favor of calling JP average-to-poor defensively are useless, but the one single, solitary piece of uncorroborated evidence in favor of him being good at pitch framing is beyond reproach. As evidenced by the fact that you have repeated that JP is "great" (your word) at pitch framing as if it's a cosmic truth.

And you're in no position to accuse anyone of bias.
I never saw anyone criticizing the validity of the article until I saw the opinions posted here. I don't know why you're so fixated on it being "only one article". If fangraphs does something that no other sabremetric website has done, does that mean it should be ignored and discredited? Why didn't Hayhurst share your concerns about the articles validity?

And again, you're arguing against things I've never said. I said its funny and ironic to see that after people attacked JPA so hard because he apparently sucked at pitch framing (Which several people here argued it's the most important catching stat) and now that pitch framing isn't that special now that evidence is coming out that he's actually pretty good at it. I've said this in pretty much all my posts yet I keep getting ******** replies about me supposedly saying JPA is amazing defensively now because of one article.

And I most certainly am in position to criticize others for bias. The same people who attacked JPA for his pitch framing are either ignoring this or saying "it means nothing". I still don't like the stat regardless of what it says.

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06-20-2013, 09:26 PM
  #542
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Future face of the franchise.

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06-20-2013, 09:26 PM
  #543
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VW is 6/58 in June , ugh

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06-20-2013, 09:33 PM
  #544
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Isn't that a face that looks like it can lay off a pitch that bounces off the plate?

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06-20-2013, 09:51 PM
  #545
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Originally Posted by Faidh ar Rud Eigin View Post
I never saw anyone criticizing the validity of the article until I saw the opinions posted here. I don't know why you're so fixated on it being "only one article". If fangraphs does something that no other sabremetric website has done, does that mean it should be ignored and discredited? Why didn't Hayhurst share your concerns about the articles validity?
If fangraphs does something new, it's interesting, but its' still ultimately lacking in credibility until there's more corroborating data to validate their hypothesis. That's how any sort of analytical method works. You need multiple studies and data points to establish an actual pattern.

Quote:
And again, you're arguing against things I've never said. I said its funny and ironic to see that after people attacked JPA so hard because he apparently sucked at pitch framing (Which several people here argued it's the most important catching stat) and now that pitch framing isn't that special now that evidence is coming out that he's actually pretty good at it. I've said this in pretty much all my posts yet I keep getting ******** replies about me supposedly saying JPA is amazing defensively now because of one article.
You're missing the point. The point isn't whether or not he's good at pitch framing or whether or not he's bad defensively. The point is hypocrisy. Tons of defensive metrics and analyses say that JP's bad and you go out of your way to try to discredit them as incomplete or irrelevant or without merit or whatever. But one article comes out saying JP is awesome at pitch framing and suddenly almost every single time in the past day that pitch framing comes up, you make a point of noting that JP is great at it. not that he might be. Not that the evidence could indicate that he is. Not that it's an as-yet-unsubstantiated possibility. No. He is great. Certainty. Absolute. And it certainly is relevant to this discussion to bring up your past practice on similar issues because it undermines your credibility if you can be shown to pick and choose when you want to believe and dismiss stats or analyses.


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And I most certainly am in position to criticize others for bias. The same people who attacked JPA for his pitch framing are either ignoring this or saying "it means nothing". I still don't like the stat regardless of what it says.
and you, the same person who derided the defensive metrics that said JP sucks defensively are standing steadfastly behind a similarly shaky metric about pitch framing. I'm not saying it means nothing. I'm saying we don't know what it means yet. It's too early to be proclaiming anything about JP's pitch framing abilities based on a single new point of analysis. It's especially too early to be shouting people down with comments like "JP is a great pitch framer. You're just as biased in favor of JP as you claim the people you're fighting are biased against him.

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06-20-2013, 09:53 PM
  #546
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Isn't that a face that looks like it can lay off a pitch that bounces off the plate?
It sure does.

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06-20-2013, 10:21 PM
  #547
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VW is 6/58 in June , ugh
But I thought NY was a place where veteran players go to revive their careers with magic pixie dust and pinstripe pride.

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06-20-2013, 11:06 PM
  #548
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I don't want to alarm anyone, but the leading OPS for the Blue Jays over the last week is Kawasaki.

I **** you not. 1.162 OPS.



Last edited by The Nemesis: 06-20-2013 at 11:24 PM.
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06-21-2013, 04:09 AM
  #549
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With regards to pitch framing, yes JP may have shown some improvement this year, as this Fangraphs article lists him as having the fourth largest year-over-year increase in strikes stolen/strikes lost plus minus.

Two issues though. One, pitch framing stats are subject to a lot of noise and measurement error. Hence I would take any such evidence based on 2/5 of a season of data with a grain of salt. In addition, I think, and I haven't double checked so I'd welcome a correction, the method Mike Fast originally used was a bit more sophisticated than the plus/minus stat Fangraphs et al. have been using of late, so we may be looking at even more measurement error here.

Second, given pitch framing is a fairly new and noisy statistic with only a few years of data, it's also uncertain to what extent it is a repeatable/learnable skill. The same issues apply to UZR, hence why a general rule-of-thumb is to wait for three seasons worth of data before making any conclusions about a fielder.

Taking an arbitrary cutoff of 3000 pitches, JP ranked 88th in pitch framing out of 101 qualified catchers from 2007 to 2011 data. Now, that's from JP's first year and a bit, so it's certainly reasonable to suspect he can/did improve since then. It's weakly evident pitch framing declines with age, but there are exceptions.

I can't seem to find a full list of 2012 data, but the Blue Jays did rank 20th out of 32 using the same crude statistic in this Fangraphs article. Which suggests JP was a poor pitch framer from 2010 to 2012. Can we really infer anything from a sudden change over a small sample? I'd suggest not.

Fangraphs' catcher fielding stats has been mentioned a lot, so I'd just like to point out it's entirely based on The Fielding Bible's stolen base runs for 2013 so far, as pitch blocking data for 2013 isn't available yet. JP is ranked last of 20 qualified catchers in catching baserunners so far. He's been pretty poor at it his entire career allowing steal percentages of 75.7, 70.6, and 80.5 from 2011 to 2013.

As for pitch blocking, again subject to noise, he did improve from 6 runs below average and ranked 18th out of 20 in 2011 to 1.9 runs above average and ranked 11th out of 20 in 2012.

Taking a quick and dirty approach to the wild pitch/passed ball data we do have so far, JP's currently on track for 3 more passed pitches than last year over the same number of innings played, though that drops to 1 less than last year if we exclude the Dickey start. After a terrible first year, he may have settled in as an average pitch blocker.

I've written too much already to bother with a proper conclusion.

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06-21-2013, 08:40 AM
  #550
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I don't want to alarm anyone, but the leading OPS for the Blue Jays over the last week is Kawasaki.

I **** you not. 1.162 OPS.

WTF? Seriously, that's impressive to post an OPS like that without hitting a single homer. He is on base a ton.

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