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06-14-2013, 03:36 PM
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stromboner
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Top 6 Forward Search - Analysis and Speculation

Iím at it again. Previously, I enjoyed looking into who would be a good fit for the Canucks 3rd line center (link here). This time, itís the all important top 6 winger. But, what kind of player should the Canucks be targeting? Maybe a better question is: will the Canucks even look to add to their top 6? If Booth and Kassian are paired with Kesler, and Burrows remains with the Sedins, there is no room for a new top 6 forward, our top 4 d-men can be fit under the cap, and we would have about 2-3 million to fill the 3C spot. If the team wants to upgrade its scoring (which it should) they may look to bump Kassian down a line (or all the way to the minors) and fill his position with a proven goal scoring threat. This player will likely need to have the following attributes:

Goal scoring: The Canucks lack of scoring in recent playoff series (2.06 G/G the last 3 years) is the reason the team needs to add some offensive punch. Kesler could also use a full complement of top 6 wingers, instead of Booth and a 3rd liner. Goal scoring is probably the most critical attribute for the Canucks at the moment; as such it receives the highest weighting/scaling factor in the spreadsheet.

Size/Physicality/Toughness: Getting physically overpowered, or bullied, is the story that has followed the Canucks since their ill-fated cup final series against Boston. Specifically, the image of Marchand repeatedly punching Henrik in the face with no response from the rest of the team (or the refs) has earned Vancouver the label of being soft. Since fighting is almost non-existent in the playoffs and seen as somewhat of a side show during the regular season, getting a top 6 forward with lots of fighting majors or PIMs is likely of little benefit. However, having a larger player who hits frequently might be the most prudent and effective way to shed the Ďsoftí label and start bullying the opposition. Hits per 82g receives the 2nd highest weighting, with size (actually, combined relative size...see below for more info) and Pts per 82 games at equal weighting.

Age: Mike Gillis mentioned in his year end press conference that he would like the team to get younger. This makes sense, since the top line is 32 years old and the organization has a low ranked prospect pool. Also, the Canucks continue to finish high in the standings thus guaranteeing them low selections at the draft. Adding a young established goal scorer through a trade effectively supplements the weak performance of our prospect pool/drafting. Age isnít the most important attribute, though it would be a nice bonus. Therefore, the weighting factor for age is low.


(see attached PDF for a easier to read version)

CHART EXPLINATION:

The stats Iíve used are combined for the last 3 regular seasons. This should avoid making a player who was injured during the shortened season look like a scrub, when their previous two years show them to be an excellent player.

Next CAP = 2013/2014 Cap hit.
For RFA and UFA I made my best guess at what those players were likely to receive.

Rel Size = sum of relative height (height/max height) and relative weight (weight/max weight).

Score =
Age weight *(min age/age) +
Size weight*(rel size/max rel size) +
Pts weight*(Pts per 82/max Pts per 82) +
Hits weight*(Hits per 82/max Hits per 82) +
Goals weight*(Goals per 82/max Goals per 82)

The Score allows for the players to be ranked.

The Selection Criteria section allows for unsuitable/incompatible players to be eliminated from contention.

x=incompatible ?=questionable

High CAP: x > 7 > ? > 5.5
Toxic (Years+Age): x >37 > ? > 36
Goals: x< 20 < ? < 25
Size: x < 195 < ? < 200
Hits: x < 82 < ? < 123

Fit: x in any criteria = no otherwise = YES

__________________________________________________ ________________

Before discussing the results, I would like make a few points about my trade speculation for the acquisition of a top 6 fwd for the Canucks. Iím assuming Ballard and Luongo are off the books and will not likely be involved in the trade that gets us a top 6 fwd. They could be, but Iíll mention it if it comes up. Otherwise assume they are gone. For players costing 4 million or more, the Canucks will still need to move another player, likely a big contract. The most eligible player for this, in my mind, is Alex Edler. The rest of the d-corps has NTC and we canít move a current top 6 forwards if weíre looking to add one (we just end up back at square one). If the new playerís contract is sub 4 million, it could be possible for the Canucks to move one or two smaller contracts (e.g. Tanev + 1st) and still fit a roster under the cap.

RESULTS:

Only 4 players (highlighted in green) passed the selection criteria (and not one of them was a Canucks): James Neal, Eric Cole, Jamie Benn, and Bobby Ryan.

James Neal: He ranked very highly in the chart, and has been a consistent 30g scorer over the last 3 years. His stats are a little inflated due to playing with Malkin, but he still put up near 30g/82 pace with Dallas. Heís young and doesnít shy away from physical play. His cap hit would force the Canucks to move a large contract, but given their goaltending woes with Flurey, the Pens may look to upgrade their defense. In which case, an Edler for Neal swap could make sense. If they are up against the cap, the Canucks probably canít provide them much relief and this trade wouldnít make sense.

Eric Cole: Also ranked highly, Cole is goal scoring power forward who hits often. He looks great on paper, but I have my concerns. First, heís changed teams 4 times in the last 7 years, which leads me to believe he may have some personality/chemistry/dressing room issues. Second, heís older than the Sedins and represents some risk insomuch as the remaining two years on his contract may show that heís past his prime. Since Dallas just acquired Cole from Montreal this season, itís unlikely they trade him so soon. Furthermore, Dallas just added Gonchar and does not have a deep team. So, an Edler for Cole swap is also unlikely. Basically, Iím not too high on acquiring Cole, or the chances of it actually happening.

Jamie Benn: Heís one of the most desirable players on this list. Heís young and improving every year, while putting up excellent offensive stats on a relatively weak team. Also, heís a BC boy with a physical element to his game and can play wing or centre. Heís a franchise level player, which is the main problem. Trying to pry Benn out of Dallas would be almost impossible. Plus, the type of deal that would see Benn moved would likely involve ownership giving the OK, which provides another hurdle. Acquilini and Gaglardi have a rockey relationship to say the least. I could envision a trade looking like this: Edler+Kassian+Burrows for Benn+Robidas. Dallas would need a serviceable forward back, thatís Burrows, and Kassian gives them some youth. Robidas comes back for salary reasons and because Edler moves him down the depth chart. Dallas has a number of good young d-men so Robidas would become expendable. I donít see Edler+Kassian being enough on their own, since Kassian doesnít project to be a guaranteed top 6 player, hence the inclusion of Burrows. Maybe Booth+1st instead of Burrows would be enough. In any event, a trade for Benn seems highly unlikely, though it would be awesome to have him on the Canucks.

Bobby Ryan: He seems like the best overall option of the 4 candidates, in my opinion, when trade scenarios are taken into consideration (obviously UFAs are the easiest to acquire). Still fairly young at 26, four 30+ goal seasons straight, up until this year (which means his value is probably at its lowest in the last 5 years), good size, and a willingness to hit make him an excellent fit. The aspect I like best about Ryan is his individual abilities. Heís a high skill player with an excellent shot. The closest player to Bobby Ryan on the Canucks is Kesler, but he is often mired in defensive duties and doesnít quite posses the same caliber of shooting, stick handling, and dekeing abilities. Ryanís availability on the trade market is debatable (but he seems more available than the 3 players Iíve already discussed) as the Ducks have some question marks in their forward group, namely, Teemu Selane and Saku Koivu. If the two Finns return for another season, Ryan becomes much more expendable. If they donít return, Ryan is the only legit top 6 fwd behind Getzlaf and Perry, and Anaheim would have plenty of cap space to retain him and fill out the rest of their roster. Still, looking at Anaheimís d-corps makes you wonder if they would value Edler enough to part with Ryan anyways. Bauchemin (33), Souray (36), and Allen (32) arenít young, Cam Fowler looks to have regressed the past two years after his breakout rookie campaign, and Sbisa doesnít project to be a top line d-man has he once did. This uncertainty leads me to believe Anaheim might be willing to bite the bullet and deal Ryan for defensive help.

__________________________________________________ ____________

I would like to quickly discuss some excellent candidates (highlighted in yellow) who didnít quite make it past the selection criteria. Lots of trade speculation too. Itís just how it goes with most of these players being quite valuable to their teams and under contract.

Jerome Iginla: Top ranked player for obvious reasons. But, heís old, probably on the downswing, and could command a high salary if he desires. He seems more likely to return to Calgary and retire a Flame in the next couple of years than join the Canucks. He would be a great addition to the team if he took a pay cut, though.

Patrick Sharp: The Hawks are in a cap crunch, and Sharp has been involved in the odd rumor over the past couple seasons, so he might be available. Heís a consistent points-producer and can play centre if needed, which would be quite valuable for the centre-depth-depleted Canucks. Heís not very physical though, and carries a high cap hit.

Scott Hartnell: Philly is looking for a top pairing d-man and has forward depth to spare. This is a good match for the Canucks, who are in the opposite situation. Hartnellís contract takes him to 36 years old, which is worrisome, and he isnít a high skill type player. But, heís a proven goal scorer and plays a physical brand of hockey. If Canucks management isnít afraid of the contract length, a Hartnell+pick/prospect for Edler deal could work. His cap hit is pretty good too. Crazier trades involving Luongo, if Bryzgalov is bought out, are possible but not likely.

Max Pacioretty: This guy would be a great addition to the Canucks roster. Heís young, signed to a good long term contract, and scores and hits at almost the same rate as Kesler. The problem comes when trying to acquire him. Heís very valuable to Montreal, who looks to be losing Ryder to free agency, and arenít desperately in need of any upgrades on defence. As much as I would like to have Patches, he just doesnít seem at all available.

Evander Kane: He didnít pass the selection criteria because his weight is a bit low for a typical power forward. However, he plays like heís 20lbs heavier, and is just as perfect of a fit as Benn or Ryan (maybe better). Heís a BC boy, played for the Giants, is only 21, and his offensive production is quite good. Heís a goal scorer more than anything and is trending up. His ceiling could be as high as 50 goals with the right centreman. Kaneís high hit totals demonstrate his willingness to play the physical style associated with power forwards, despite his slight size disadvantage. A trade for Kane would take quite a bit from the Canucks. Maybe, something like Edler+Kassian+1st for Kane, though Winnipeg would probably want a better forward back to replace some of the lost offence. Winnipeg I believe is actually looking to move a defenseman, not add one, so a trade between the two teams seem unlikely. Too bad.

Ryane Clowe: His is neither a highly skilled guy, nor an excellent goal scorer. But, heís a UFA and was rumoured to have been close to coming to Vancouver at the trade deadline this season. His cap hit could be anywhere from 4-5 million depending on term, so that would require the Canucks to move a contract. The subsequent trade could land the Canucks a quality 3rd line centre (e.g. Edler for Couturier+pick/B prospect). For this reason, Clowe makes a lot of sense, as his free acquisition allows the Canucks to use their best trade chips to upgrade the 3C position thus providing better balance and redundancy throughout the lineup, while still improving the top six. Cloweís only 30 years old, so a long term contract (4-5 years) doesnít scare me, and would help keep the cap number down. For example, Clowe might sign for 4-4.25 over 5 years, but 4.5-5 over only 3 years.

__________________________________________________ __________

Finally, I would just like to provide some quick comments on other players not highlighted on the list.

Chris Kunitz: His stats are overinflated by his line mate (and best player on the planet) Sydney Crosby.
Patrick Marleau: Too soft, too expensive, too old, slightly overinflated stats from playing with elite setup man, Joe Thorton.
Shane Doan, Marian Hossa, and Johan Franzen: Toxic contracts. Doanís too old. Hossa and Franzen probably have 2-3 good years left, but will hurt the cap for the 4-5 years after. Too much risk with these players.
Milan Lucic: Too expensive, potential chemistry issue with current core players, not a high skill level, and weak skating.
Thomas Vanek: Too expensive, very soft, otherwise excellent.
Phil Kessel: Will be too expensive, very soft, small, otherwise excellent.
Wayne Simmonds: Very good option, just hasnít put up good enough scoring over the last 3 years, or he would have finished higher in the ranking. Good trading partner with Philly. Heís a bit light, but is young and has a great contract. It would take Edler+ most likely to get him.
Jakub Voracek: Very good option for a defensive minded, talented passer, with goal scoring and overall play on the upswing. Ranked low due to lack of physical play and has yet to consistently produce. Could probably be had for Edler straight up. I just donít know if the absence of physicality is offset by his other attributes.
Teddy Purcell: Low goal scoring, little future upside due to age, not physical at all. Overpaid in my opinion.

__________________________________________________ ___________

In conclusion, I feel that if the Canucks opt to upgrade the top six at the likely expense of the d-corps, they should target Bobby Ryan. To add more balance to the lineup, they might try to sign a UFA top six, like Ryane Clowe and use their depth on defense to address the 3C position. Most of the players towards the top of the chart would be nice additions to the Canucks; itís just a matter of actually acquiring them and fitting them within the constraints of the salary cap.

Thanks for reading, and let me know if you think any adjustments or additions should be made to the chart to make it more realistic.
Attached Files
File Type: pdf Chart-Top6.pdf‎ (69.3 KB, 7 views)


Last edited by stromboner: 06-14-2013 at 03:42 PM. Reason: Image link
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06-14-2013, 03:40 PM
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Cool stuff. I don't think Kessel's that soft though, but def. too expensive for us. He outscored Crosby and Malkin vs. the Bruins this postseason.

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06-14-2013, 03:51 PM
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This is very well thought out and it is obvious that you did a really good job at identifying the top candidates. Bobby Ryan is also the one player I found to be the best and most viable. One of the few trades I would ok with Edler. A few things:

-Neal and Benn aren't available imo.
-I would want to stay away from Erik Cole, especially after this year.
-I want Ryan Clowe nowhere near this team, and I don't think he is an improvement over Hansen/Higgins
-I don't think anything is inherently wrong with our physicality/toughness tbh. We outhit, and played extremely physical against San Jose this year and it costed us because we got a ton of penalties from it.

Overall you did an awesome job of finding the right guys that you were looking for, I just don't know if that is the type of player we actually need. I would welcome Iginla on a decent contract because I think he was criminally misused in Pittsburgh and I think he could provide invaluable mentoring for Kassian. If we don't want to give up someone of Edler quality on the backend, then I think a trade for Simmonds could be a good move for us. Obviously WS is fairly unproven at this point and we would be taking on the risks of developing him, but it would be a cheaper option to get us younger and bigger.


Last edited by LPH: 06-14-2013 at 03:54 PM. Reason: whoops :)
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06-14-2013, 04:40 PM
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Very interesting read. I see you put a lot of work into this, however I don't really see why age or physicality would be deal breakers. If we sign a guy short term(1-3 years) it shouldn't be an issue. After that contract ends Jensen might be able to take over.

In terms of physicality the two guys you mentioned- Vanek is a noted Bruins killer who scores at .5 G/G in the playoffs and Kessel is also a very good playoff performer.

Should Chicago get rid of Kane, or Boston Seguin in order to avoid "soft" players?

Two omissions I noticed were Ryder and Jagr as free agents, or Cammalleri or Tanguay via trade, all of whom I'd be interested in.

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06-14-2013, 04:41 PM
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I am firmly in the we don't need to get bigger we need to get feistier camp. The more piss and vinegar the better. A team full of Keslers/Burrows/Bieksas/Hansen's is my dream. Unfortunately it is a very real possibility that the only one of this group not on the decline is Hansen.

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06-14-2013, 05:19 PM
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Not sure I agree with methodology for 'soft', but an interesting exercise.

I am wondering if you are crafting criteria to get to a certain conclusion, I also don't know that any of the outcomes are particularly helpful. "This team would be better with Jamie Benn/Bobby Ryan/James Neal" doesn't really identify where the team can improve besides adding a mid-20s star forward.

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06-14-2013, 05:48 PM
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Thanks for the comments guys.

Quote:
Originally Posted by luongo321 View Post
Cool stuff. I don't think Kessel's that soft though, but def. too expensive for us. He outscored Crosby and Malkin vs. the Bruins this postseason.
I'm going to have to disagree on Kessel. He has the lowest hits per 82 on the list. I don't think he has a single fighting major in his entire career, and doesn't take many penalties. I also believe that he's been criticized as being a perimeter player. That's about as soft as it gets. Highly talented, but definitely soft.

Quote:
Originally Posted by live playoff hockey View Post
... I just don't know if that is the type of player we actually need...

...If we don't want to give up someone of Edler quality on the backend, then I think a trade for Simmonds could be a good move for us...
Determining what type of player we need is admittedly difficult. I did provide some background about the factors I used in ranking the players, but it's subjective. One of the reasons I chose age and physicality as desirable attributes was that Gillis said himself at the year end press conference that we would see big changes with a shift towards youth and size (I suspect to compete with teams like LA and STL). If a different approach is taken, a different selection criteria would likely be used.

Regarding a Simmonds trade. There has been discussion back and forth on these forums between Canucks and Flyers fans and it seems that Simmonds is highly regarded (due to his excellent play, good contract, and youthful upside) by his teams fans. The forum suggested it would take at least Edler to pry him out of Philly. Of course, the GMs may see it differently.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
...Jensen might be able to take over.

In terms of physicality the two guys you mentioned- Vanek is a noted Bruins killer who scores at .5 G/G in the playoffs and Kessel is also a very good playoff performer.

Should Chicago get rid of Kane, or Boston Seguin in order to avoid "soft" players?

Two omissions I noticed were Ryder and Jagr as free agents, or Cammalleri or Tanguay via trade, all of whom I'd be interested in.
Regarding Jensen, the bolded is the big issue for me (for all of our prospects really). Low 1st round picks don't frequently translate into the type of players I was targeting in this analysis. A proven young player would make Jensen expendable, and remove the risk of relying on an unproven player to not just fill a role but excel at it.

The physical deficiencies of Kane and Seguin are supplemented by other players who are more physical and larger (like Bickell and Hossa on CHI and Lucic and Horton on BOS). We would be supplementing the Sedins weak physical play with a power forward like Bobby Ryan, or Ryane Clowe. Keep the Sedins but add some more physicality.

I believe Ryder and Tanguay are on the list. But I'll update it later with Jagr and Cammilleri to see where they rank.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BassMason View Post
I am firmly in the we don't need to get bigger we need to get feistier camp. The more piss and vinegar the better. A team full of Keslers/Burrows/Bieksas/Hansen's is my dream. Unfortunately it is a very real possibility that the only one of this group not on the decline is Hansen.
I agree to some extent. I think the use of the hits per 82 stat demonstrates the willingness of a player to engage physically (an aspect of feistiness). But, having feistiness along with size makes the physical play for effective and helps to wear down the opposition during a playoff series. It's tough to get a complete measure of feistiness though. Urgency would be part of describing feisty play, but I can't think of stat that would quantity a players urgency level.

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06-14-2013, 05:51 PM
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Good read. The only 2 viable ones are Ryan and Clowe IMO(After the year Clowe had, I don't really want to overpay for him) Ryan would need Edler going back in return.

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06-14-2013, 06:12 PM
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Vankiller Whale
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stromboner View Post
Regarding Jensen, the bolded is the big issue for me (for all of our prospects really). Low 1st round picks don't frequently translate into the type of players I was targeting in this analysis. A proven young player would make Jensen expendable, and remove the risk of relying on an unproven player to not just fill a role but excel at it.

The physical deficiencies of Kane and Seguin are supplemented by other players who are more physical and larger (like Bickell and Hossa on CHI and Lucic and Horton on BOS). We would be supplementing the Sedins weak physical play with a power forward like Bobby Ryan, or Ryane Clowe. Keep the Sedins but add some more physicality.

I believe Ryder and Tanguay are on the list. But I'll update it later with Jagr and Cammilleri to see where they rank.

I agree to some extent. I think the use of the hits per 82 stat demonstrates the willingness of a player to engage physically (an aspect of feistiness). But, having feistiness along with size makes the physical play for effective and helps to wear down the opposition during a playoff series. It's tough to get a complete measure of feistiness though. Urgency would be part of describing feisty play, but I can't think of stat that would quantity a players urgency level.
I just think it seems arbitrary to say that a player with x hits would be a good fit, but not one with y. If we could add a guy like Eriksson, it would be huge, even if he doesn't hit as much. Also, we have nothing to lose by, say, signing a guy like Iginla or Jagr to a 1-year deal. We'd be no worse off, and if Jensen can eventually slot in, then great, if not, then we can look at next years UFA crop.

As long as we don't get locked into a bad term, I don't see age as a potential barrier.

Similarly for physicality, if we have, say, Burrows, Kesler, Kassian, and maybe Booth in our top-6, that's half our top-6 that are skill guys. Since the Sedins are anyways guaranteed to play together, we'd end up with something that looks like:

skill(Sedin)-skill(Sedin)-grit(Burrows/Kassian)
grit(Booth/Burrows)-grit(Kesler)-skill(e.g. Ryder, Tanguay, etc)

Which I think is a perfectly acceptable mix.

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06-14-2013, 06:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
I just think it seems arbitrary to say that a player with x hits would be a good fit, but not one with y. If we could add a guy like Eriksson, it would be huge, even if he doesn't hit as much. Also, we have nothing to lose by, say, signing a guy like Iginla or Jagr to a 1-year deal. We'd be no worse off, and if Jensen can eventually slot in, then great, if not, then we can look at next years UFA crop.

As long as we don't get locked into a bad term, I don't see age as a potential barrier.

Similarly for physicality, if we have, say, Burrows, Kesler, Kassian, and maybe Booth in our top-6, that's half our top-6 that are skill guys. Since the Sedins are anyways guaranteed to play together, we'd end up with something that looks like:

skill(Sedin)-skill(Sedin)-grit(Burrows/Kassian)
grit(Booth/Burrows)-grit(Kesler)-skill(e.g. Ryder, Tanguay, etc)


Which I think is a perfectly acceptable mix.
I am in agreement with those two lines. Probably won't get Horton but I would get him if possible.

Sedin-Sedin-Burrows
Booth-Kesler-Ryder/Tanguay

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06-14-2013, 06:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stromboner View Post
Thanks for the comments guys.



I'm going to have to disagree on Kessel. He has the lowest hits per 82 on the list. I don't think he has a single fighting major in his entire career, and doesn't take many penalties. I also believe that he's been criticized as being a perimeter player. That's about as soft as it gets. Highly talented, but definitely soft.


[QUOTE]

I agree to some extent. I think the use of the hits per 82 stat demonstrates the willingness of a player to engage physically (an aspect of feistiness). But, having feistiness along with size makes the physical play for effective and helps to wear down the opposition during a playoff series. It's tough to get a complete measure of feistiness though. Urgency would be part of describing feisty play, but I can't think of stat that would quantity a players urgency level.[/QUOTE]

INTANGIBLES

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06-14-2013, 06:39 PM
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I thought about suggesting that we acquire Martin St. Louis, Marian Hossa, Milan Lucic and Jordan Eberle, but the chart says no, so I guess we don't need 'em.

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06-16-2013, 04:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
I just think it seems arbitrary to say that a player with x hits would be a good fit, but not one with y. If we could add a guy like Eriksson, it would be huge, even if he doesn't hit as much. Also, we have nothing to lose by, say, signing a guy like Iginla or Jagr to a 1-year deal. We'd be no worse off, and if Jensen can eventually slot in, then great, if not, then we can look at next years UFA crop.

As long as we don't get locked into a bad term, I don't see age as a potential barrier.

Similarly for physicality, if we have, say, Burrows, Kesler, Kassian, and maybe Booth in our top-6, that's half our top-6 that are skill guys. Since the Sedins are anyways guaranteed to play together, we'd end up with something that looks like:

skill(Sedin)-skill(Sedin)-grit(Burrows/Kassian)
grit(Booth/Burrows)-grit(Kesler)-skill(e.g. Ryder, Tanguay, etc)

Which I think is a perfectly acceptable mix.
Agreed.

In a team sport, it often makes more sense to fulfill these types of criteria in the aggregate (in terms of on-ice groupings like forward lines, defense pairings, five-man units, scoring tandems, etc.) rather than searching for "ideal" players who tick every box individually.

Not saying that the OP doesn't provide an excellent selection model for targeting players (nice work again, by the way). Just that the elimination methodology might not be ideal.

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06-16-2013, 05:07 PM
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Clowe was rumoured to be interested in Vancouver due to AV. I doubt he comes here now, he's a little too slow for my liking anyway.

Erik Cole could be bought out. Unlikely but if he is I hope Gillis puts a flier out on him.

I think the Sedins will produce with anyone at this point in their careers. This is a good opportunity to space out our impact forwards and try out a bargain bin option (Carter, Pyatt, Bernier of years past). San Jose (Galiardi), Detroit (Abdelkader), and Chicago (Bickell) all use this method.

Sedins - buy low option (ex. Frattin)
Booth - Kesler - Kassian
Higgins - xxx - Burrows
xxx - Schroeder - Hansen

That's championship depth.

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06-16-2013, 05:23 PM
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Vankiller Whale
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Clowe was rumoured to be interested in Vancouver due to AV. I doubt he comes here now, he's a little too slow for my liking anyway.

Erik Cole could be bought out. Unlikely but if he is I hope Gillis puts a flier out on him.

I think the Sedins will produce with anyone at this point in their careers. This is a good opportunity to space out our impact forwards and try out a bargain bin option (Carter, Pyatt, Bernier of years past). San Jose (Galiardi), Detroit (Abdelkader), and Chicago (Bickell) all use this method.

Sedins - buy low option (ex. Frattin)
Booth - Kesler - Kassian
Higgins - xxx - Burrows
xxx - Schroeder - Hansen

That's championship depth.
Depth players are certainly championship calibre. The top-6 is most certainly not.

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06-16-2013, 05:31 PM
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Iginla, Ryan and Sharp are my 3 favourites.

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06-16-2013, 05:35 PM
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This all pretty much hinges on Edler getting traded, and I don't think Gillis can do that in good conscience.

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06-16-2013, 05:37 PM
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Shap'll be considered untouchable after this playoff run (he most likely was prior to it). I don't like the balance of the team if we do an Edler/Ryan swap (don't trust Bieksa and he's unlikely to turn things around at age 31), though I think Iginla could be effective with the Sedins. He's pretty much garbage defensively at this point, but the Sedins are more often than not in the offensive zone. I don't think he'll be asking for anything outlandish in terms of money at this point. He wants to win.

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06-16-2013, 05:40 PM
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Depth players are certainly championship calibre. The top-6 is most certainly not.
How far is it from contending teams?

Boston has Jagr producing at a 32 point pace. Chicago has Handzus as their 2C.

Some timely goal scoring from the bottom 6 should off-set the two tweeners in the top 6. Adding a top 6 winger (~4.5M) will kill our depth. Is it really fair to count on Schroeder to provide the main source of secondary scoring in the playoffs?

Of course my ideal scenario has Sedin's linemate at 20-20 (realistic), Kassian at ~40 pts (realistic?) and Booth staying healthy (doubtful).

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06-16-2013, 05:56 PM
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How far is it from contending teams?

Boston has Jagr producing at a 32 point pace. Chicago has Handzus as their 2C.

Some timely goal scoring from the bottom 6 should off-set the two tweeners in the top 6. Adding a top 6 winger (~4.5M) will kill our depth. Is it really fair to count on Schroeder to provide the main source of secondary scoring in the playoffs?

Of course my ideal scenario has Sedin's linemate at 20-20 (realistic), Kassian at ~40 pts (realistic?) and Booth staying healthy (doubtful).
Boston has Bergeron, Lucic, Horton, Marchand, Krejci, Jagr, and Seguin. Those are 7 solid top-6 players.

We have Henrik, Daniel, Kesler, and Burrows. That's four. So you tell me if that's enough.

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06-16-2013, 06:05 PM
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Boston has Bergeron, Lucic, Horton, Marchand, Krejci, Jagr, and Seguin. Those are 7 solid top-6 players.

We have Henrik, Daniel, Kesler, and Burrows. That's four. So you tell me if that's enough.
But how many are producing like a top 6 player? Jagr is snake-bitten and Seguin is on the 4th line.
6 players (Chara the only D) on Boston are producing at a 50+ pt pace.

Is it really hard to believe that Sedins, Kesler, Burrows and Edler produce at a 50+ pace? That's pretty realistic to me. A healthy Booth should be able to hover around the ~50 pt pace. He's been at slightly below that in his career.

The rest of the scoring will have to come from our depth guys (like Krug catching fire, or Campbell playing above his head).

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06-16-2013, 06:11 PM
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But how many are producing like a top 6 player? Jagr is snake-bitten and Seguin is on the 4th line.
6 players (Chara the only D) on Boston are producing at a 50+ pt pace.

Is it really hard to believe that Sedins, Kesler, Burrows and Edler produce at a 50+ pace? That's pretty realistic to me.

The rest of the scoring will have to come from our depth guys (like Krug catching fire, or Campbell playing above his head).
The whole point of having enough top-6 players is that if(when) some get quiet there are others to shoulder the burden. For us if the Sedin line gets shut down all we have to pick up the slack is Kesler.

So Seguin is playing on the 3rd line and Jagr can't buy a goal(but is still generating a lot of chances). That's why they have guys like Lucic and Krejci and Marchand and Bergeron who can step up. What happens when the Sedin line get snake bitten? We rely on Kesler and...? Higgins? Hansen? You get the picture. We need another solid top-6 forward that we can rely on to help minimize the damage when our top line gets shut down.

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06-16-2013, 06:44 PM
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I'd like to see this configuration, personally

Sedin - Sedin - [Top Six Winger from this thread]
Higgins - Kesler - Booth (chemistry wise, it's one of the few combos that seem to work)
Burrows - [3C from that other thread]/Schroeder - Hansen (Burrows-Hansen's chemistry could make up for lack of offense from the center)
Weise - Lapierre - Kassian (I still like this 4th line)
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Originally Posted by kthsn View Post
But how many are producing like a top 6 player? Jagr is snake-bitten and Seguin is on the 4th line.
6 players (Chara the only D) on Boston are producing at a 50+ pt pace.

Is it really hard to believe that Sedins, Kesler, Burrows and Edler produce at a 50+ pace? That's pretty realistic to me. A healthy Booth should be able to hover around the ~50 pt pace. He's been at slightly below that in his career.

The rest of the scoring will have to come from our depth guys (like Krug catching fire, or Campbell playing above his head).
The point of having lots of top-six caliber guys as depth isn't so that everyone plays lights out all the time (this doesn't happen when teams have a lot of depth), it's that anyone can step up at any given time. The point is guys like Jagr and Seguin CAN step up, whereas it's asking an unreasonable amount to expect Jannik Hansen to step in to produce for an injured Kesler.


Last edited by Shareefruck: 06-16-2013 at 06:55 PM.
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06-16-2013, 06:55 PM
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I understand the point(s) that Vankiller Whale and Shareefruck but I don't believe adding 1 top 6er will give us enough depth. I'm not very high on Ryan (regressing statistically) and Ryder is a good complimentary option. Iginla is another complimentary player at this point.

For us to add another dynamic scorer we'd have to acquire a Voracek calibre player. Even an Neal struggles without a playmaker.

My goal isn't for a Hansen to step up when Kesler/Sedins get cold but a combination of 3-4 tweeners (Higgins, New Sedin linemate, 3C, Hansen) to chip in or for one to get hot at the right time.

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06-16-2013, 06:58 PM
  #25
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I understand the point(s) that Vankiller Whale and Shareefruck but I don't believe adding 1 top 6er will give us enough depth. I'm not very high on Ryan (regressing statistically) and Ryder is a good complimentary option. Iginla is another complimentary player at this point.

For us to add another dynamic scorer we'd have to acquire a Voracek calibre player. Even an Neal struggles without a playmaker.

My goal isn't for a Hansen to step up when Kesler/Sedins get cold but a combination of 3-4 tweeners (Higgins, New Sedin linemate, 3C, Hansen) to chip in or for one to get hot at the right time.
I don't understand where you're coming from here. First you were arguing that we have enough depth, just need to spread it around, now you're saying adding a top six guy isn't enough?

The offensive support has already been based around the combination of 3-4 tweeners...... It hasn't seemed to work.

I personally think we're desperately lacking that skill. Even keeping a guy like Roy I would be relatively happy with.

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