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Using the new CBA to trade Luongo

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Old
06-19-2013, 10:14 PM
  #26
zcaptain
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So, at the end of the day, with the Canucks taking on some contract, Luongo doesn't look any worse then any other 32/33/34 year old UFA, except he is starting with a much better skill set......the fact is Luongo's skills are still top end, and much better than most. His complete level is high, and is well worth a combination of a couple of picks/prospect/roster players.......my bet is it will be a high end prospect and a 2nd, with the Canucks keeping some contract.........now the question will be how high end? I don't know....when it comes down to it, I just want it to be over, so I can talk about something else. Just remember, anything that could come out of Toronto should be taken with a grain of salt........fans and management alike.....there is bad blood since Luongo turned them down! Toronto and Vancouver have always hated each other since the Canucks joined the NHL

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Old
06-19-2013, 10:43 PM
  #27
me2
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Originally Posted by Djp View Post
If he turns into a Tim thomas and refuses to retire then the new GM is screwed. The $5.33M cap hit (or $4.33M given some retention is something that cant be avoided.
That really screwed Boston. wonder if Thomas will get a cup ring since he's still there...oh wait

Then there are always trades to cap floor teams, salary dump trade for a buyouts, LTIR etc

Quote:
the next 4 years he is making around $6.714M each year with a cap hit of $5,333,333M. Only after those 5 years does it drop to below the cap hit.

If your plan was to have him for 3 years and he refuses to retire you have to buy him out for $14M over 12 yrs with him owed around $21M over the final 6 years.
You seem to have missed the point.

That leaves only his 38yo year (6.7m) and his 39yo (3.6m). If you are at all comfortable with those two years Luongo is a good deal.

If your plan was to have him for 3 years then clearly you aren't comfortable with with the last two 6.7m years and the 3.6m year in the first place.


Last edited by me2: 06-19-2013 at 11:11 PM.
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Old
06-19-2013, 10:55 PM
  #28
me2
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Originally Posted by tempest2i View Post
Not so much. That statement was true when he was being paid 10 million while playing with a cap hit of 5.3M.

These days, that 5.3M cap hit is high as it doesn't accurately represent the remainder of the contract.
I am referring to now and the next few years, not the last 3 years part of the deal. You won't get a better goalie for cheaper on the current market. We could see Rask could ask $7m+, Lundqvist could ask $8.5m+, even decent starters are pulling down 5.5m+. In that market Luongo's $5.3m cap hit is a bargain as long as he maintains his current high level of play. The only question is whether you believe it will last 3 years or 4 years or 5 years.

If you are happy with Luongo's contract/play for next 5 years you take contract, change over goalies on the 6th, and dispose of the last 3 low salary. If you don't think he'll be worth his cap hit in years 4-5 then you don't take the deal because he won't be able to get rid off him with a $6.7m salary. A GM should be looking at it trying to work out where the break even point for performance vs cap hit vs salary is.

34 6.7
35 6.7
36 6.7
37 6.7
38 6.7
39 3.3
40 1.6
41 1
42 1

Who knows he might Brodeur it up into his 40s. For me a fairly reasonable break point is the 3.3m year, Luongo should be able to deliver value for his cap hit in first 5. You might think he'll decline earlier.


Last edited by me2: 06-19-2013 at 11:08 PM.
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Old
06-19-2013, 11:12 PM
  #29
ProstheticConscience
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Originally Posted by zcaptain View Post
Also, I sure would like to hear from some none Canuck fans that can evaluate, with none rose colored glasses.....Canucks fans are welcome too! But would love for you to declare your team, just for matter of interest...... for me this is fun and enjoy constructive opinions...........go for it!
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Originally Posted by zcaptain View Post
Interesting you think that...you must be quite the hockey fan.
Quote:
Originally Posted by zcaptain View Post
So, at the end of the day, with the Canucks taking on some contract, Luongo doesn't look any worse then any other 32/33/34 year old UFA, except he is starting with a much better skill set......the fact is Luongo's skills are still top end, and much better than most. His complete level is high, and is well worth a combination of a couple of picks/prospect/roster players.......my bet is it will be a high end prospect and a 2nd, with the Canucks keeping some contract.........now the question will be how high end? I don't know....when it comes down to it, I just want it to be over, so I can talk about something else. Just remember, anything that could come out of Toronto should be taken with a grain of salt........fans and management alike.....there is bad blood since Luongo turned them down! Toronto and Vancouver have always hated each other since the Canucks joined the NHL
No offence, but try reading one of the five million Luongo threads. It's been beaten to death for years. All the information you could ever possibly want on hf's opinion of Luongo and/or his contract is easily found. Oh look, here's a thread:

http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh....php?t=1445681

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Old
06-20-2013, 01:20 AM
  #30
tempest2i
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Quote:
Originally Posted by me2 View Post
I am referring to now and the next few years, not the last 3 years part of the deal. You won't get a better goalie for cheaper on the current market. We could see Rask could ask $7m+, Lundqvist could ask $8.5m+, even decent starters are pulling down 5.5m+. In that market Luongo's $5.3m cap hit is a bargain as long as he maintains his current high level of play. The only question is whether you believe it will last 3 years or 4 years or 5 years.

If you are happy with Luongo's contract/play for next 5 years you take contract, change over goalies on the 6th, and dispose of the last 3 low salary. If you don't think he'll be worth his cap hit in years 4-5 then you don't take the deal because he won't be able to get rid off him with a $6.7m salary. A GM should be looking at it trying to work out where the break even point for performance vs cap hit vs salary is.

34 6.7
35 6.7
36 6.7
37 6.7
38 6.7
39 3.3
40 1.6
41 1
42 1

Who knows he might Brodeur it up into his 40s. For me a fairly reasonable break point is the 3.3m year, Luongo should be able to deliver value for his cap hit in first 5. You might think he'll decline earlier.
The reason why I think the 5.3M is high is because Luongo's salary for the remainder of his contract is fairly reasonable. He probably will play like a 6.7M goalie for at least a few years. The back diving part of the contract is what it is, a method of lower his cap hit.

But here's the rub, Luongo is owed 40(ish)M over the next 9 years. That's an AAV of ~4.5M.

Yet his contract still has that 5.3M cap hit. Any team that keeps him on the books with that 5.3M is throwing away 800k worth of cap space that Vancouver benefited from.

If Vancouver retained 15% of the cap, then I would be satisfied that whoever has him is getting good value from his contract.

Otherwise whoever has him is just throwing away 800k in cap space in addition to taking on all the other risks of that contract. Regardless of how long he plays or the level he plays at.

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Old
06-20-2013, 01:37 AM
  #31
iFan
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Originally Posted by Halibut View Post
Using the new CBA a compliance buyout will only cost the Canucks $1.5 million a year and they wont take any cap hit. Sounds like an easy solution.
I don't see this happening but this is the best route for everyone... Canucks don't have to worry about getting cap hit dumped on them if Luongo retires, which I would hope Gillis and the owner are worried about, Luongo goes to Florida and Canucks free themselves from this who is your starting goalie craziness.

Unless we can workout some kinda a deal where we take back DP and get some good assets like their 1st and one of Strome or Rainhart, but that's unlikely for many reasons Canucks still have to worry about Luongo retiring and taking that hit well paying off DP and I'm not sure how the Islanders owner would feel about losing the players he would have to to get someone to buyout DP for him.

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Old
06-20-2013, 01:44 AM
  #32
tempest2i
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iFan View Post
I don't see this happening but this is the best route for everyone... Canucks don't have to worry about getting cap hit dumped on them if Luongo retires, which I would hope Gillis and the owner are worried about, Luongo goes to Florida and Canucks free themselves from this who is your starting goalie craziness.

Unless we can workout some kinda a deal where we take back DP and get some good assets like their 1st and one of Strome or Rainhart, but that's unlikely for many reasons Canucks still have to worry about Luongo retiring and taking that hit well paying off DP and I'm not sure how the Islanders owner would feel about losing the players he would have to to get someone to buyout DP for him.
I'm not an Islanders fan and even I would be disgusted if the owner chose to trade a 1st round pick and one of those two players just to save money.

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