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Draft thread part 3: who will it be?!

View Poll Results: Who do you predict the Preds WILL pick? (it's a will not a want poll)
MacKinnon at #4 (the put the mouse down and get help pick) 0 0%
Jones at #4 (the goin' for the shutout streak record pick) 5 6.02%
Drouin at #4 (the shake and bake pick) 26 31.33%
Barkov at #4 (the Maple my day pick) 39 46.99%
Nichushkin at #4 (the Pulp Fiction brain duty- 615's head exploded pick) 2 2.41%
Lindholm at #4 (the always trust a dog pick) 0 0%
Other at #4 (the WTFx10 pick) 0 0%
MacKinnon after trading up (the OMG pick) 0 0%
Jones after trading up (the classic Poile, no mayo pick) 0 0%
Drouin after trading up (the Poile's been abducted pick) 0 0%
Barkov after trading up (the Fenton is in charge pick) 3 3.61%
Other after trading up (the Mickey Mouse is in charge pick) 1 1.20%
Nichushkin after trading down (the Radulov's ghost pick) 1 1.20%
Lindholm after trading down (the classic Poile, extra cheese pick) 6 7.23%
One of the "top 4" after trading down (the "can I have one of those pills" pick) 0 0%
Other after trading down (the free chicken dinner if correct pick) 0 0%
Voters: 83. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
06-27-2013, 01:47 PM
  #526
glenngineer
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Also, Karlsson and Keith are ahead of him. Arguably Subban and Seabrook as well.
I know. I was just giving those three as an example. Don't forget Doughty and Pietrangelo as well.

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06-27-2013, 01:48 PM
  #527
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Campbell is not an elite defenseman. He's very good but if you had the choice between Campbell, Weber, Suter and Chara, Campbell is number 4 every time.
It is not my responsibility to decide what is elite to the Panthers but Campbell's cap hit is 7.14 mil a year. therefore he is paid in the same category as Weber and the others.

If one looks at the forwards they are in the same situation as the Preds. The point is that there just as likely to go forward than to pick Jones at 2. Since they have 4 additional picks in the top 100 they have opportunity to wait to draft defense as well.

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06-27-2013, 01:50 PM
  #528
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Yes because if Jones is there at 4 it's because Barkov and Mac are gone.
We already have 3 very good dmen. No reason to trade up for another. We do however have a desperate need for a possible franchise center. You trade up to get one.
Poile said if Jones is on the board at 4 we're taking him. But who knows the scenario if there is a big forward left, will he still take Jones? He says Jones is the best player in the draft.

I'd be uncomfortable if we traded up.

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06-27-2013, 01:55 PM
  #529
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Originally Posted by Byrddog View Post
It is not my responsibility to decide what is elite to the Panthers but Campbell's cap hit is 7.14 mil a year. therefore he is paid in the same category as Weber and the others.

If one looks at the forwards they are in the same situation as the Preds. The point is that there just as likely to go forward than to pick Jones at 2. Since they have 4 additional picks in the top 100 they have opportunity to wait to draft defense as well.
Salary does not dictate a players status on the ice. I don't see how salary decides if someone is elite on the ice or not. Suter made half of that here yet was the better player. Was he not elite because of his lower salary?

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06-27-2013, 02:04 PM
  #530
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Calgary has offered thier 3 first to Colorado to move to #1, presumably to draft Jones.

I wonder if that offer still stands if Jones drops to #4?

I've been preaching to take one of the big 4 virtually no matter what, but it would be awful enticing to drop to 6, take one of Lindholm/VN and pick up a mid and late 1st in the process.

Essentially, it would be something like Jones for Nichushkin, pick up another forward like a Curtis Lazar or Frederick Gauthier with the mid-1st, and with the late 1st re-stock the D pipeline with a Morin or McCoshen.

It would be hard to be disappointed with that.

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06-27-2013, 02:05 PM
  #531
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Originally Posted by Byrddog View Post
It is not my responsibility to decide what is elite to the Panthers but Campbell's cap hit is 7.14 mil a year. therefore he is paid in the same category as Weber and the others.

If one looks at the forwards they are in the same situation as the Preds. The point is that there just as likely to go forward than to pick Jones at 2. Since they have 4 additional picks in the top 100 they have opportunity to wait to draft defense as well.
Which means literally nothing on the ice.

If Florida picks Jones, they'll envision him and Gudbranson paired together for a long, long time. They could pick Barkov as an inevitable replacement for Weiss when he leaves next month, or they could pick Drouin as a future linemate for Huberdeau. Barkov would also be a good playmaker for him. I have a hard time seeing them overlooking Jones but I believe it's possible.

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06-27-2013, 02:07 PM
  #532
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Originally Posted by RaiderDoug View Post
Calgary has offered thier 3 first to Colorado to move to #1, presumably to draft Jones.

I wonder if that offer still stands if Jones drops to #4?

I've been preaching to take one of the big 4 virtually no matter what, but it would be awful enticing to drop to 6, take one of Lindholm/VN and pick up a mid and late 1st in the process.

Essentially, it would be something like Jones for Nichushkin, pick up another forward like a Curtis Lazar or Frederick Gauthier with the mid-1st, and with the late 1st re-stock the D pipeline with a Morin or McCoshen.

It would be hard to be disappointed with that.
Wow...good point. I'm with ya...I would be slightly disappointed in only later picks, but we still get Nich/Lindholm/Monahan and two firsts? Hmmmmmm.....

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06-27-2013, 02:09 PM
  #533
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Salary does not dictate a players status on the ice. I don't see how salary decides if someone is elite on the ice or not. Suter made half of that here yet was the better player. Was he not elite because of his lower salary?
Exactly. Parise has a higher cap hit than Stamkos, Vanek, Spezza, Rinne, Chara, Kovalchuk, both Sedins, and Sharp. I would take all of those players over Parise.

Back on topic, I hope Florida's thinking is Jones is both more skilled than and fills a need better than Barkov. If Tampa takes Drouin to play with Stammer we are in the clear.

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06-27-2013, 02:09 PM
  #534
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Originally Posted by RaiderDoug View Post
Calgary has offered thier 3 first to Colorado to move to #1, presumably to draft Jones.

I wonder if that offer still stands if Jones drops to #4?

I've been preaching to take one of the big 4 virtually no matter what, but it would be awful enticing to drop to 6, take one of Lindholm/VN and pick up a mid and late 1st in the process.

Essentially, it would be something like Jones for Nichushkin, pick up another forward like a Curtis Lazar or Frederick Gauthier with the mid-1st, and with the late 1st re-stock the D pipeline with a Morin or McCoshen.

It would be hard to be disappointed with that.
You have to wonder if those three draft picks combined will be as successful as Jones alone throughout the course of their careers. It's certainly possible they wont be. We've never been in a position to draft a sure thing. I don't want to pass that up.

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06-27-2013, 02:11 PM
  #535
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RaiderDoug View Post
Calgary has offered thier 3 first to Colorado to move to #1, presumably to draft Jones.

I wonder if that offer still stands if Jones drops to #4?

I've been preaching to take one of the big 4 virtually no matter what, but it would be awful enticing to drop to 6, take one of Lindholm/VN and pick up a mid and late 1st in the process.

Essentially, it would be something like Jones for Nichushkin, pick up another forward like a Curtis Lazar or Frederick Gauthier with the mid-1st, and with the late 1st re-stock the D pipeline with a Morin or McCoshen.

It would be hard to be disappointed with that.
I'd do it. If we miss out on Mack, Drouin, and Barkov, I'm all for trading down.

My preference would be to trade Jones for some current talent though.

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06-27-2013, 02:13 PM
  #536
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Originally Posted by glenngineer View Post
Salary does not dictate a players status on the ice. I don't see how salary decides if someone is elite on the ice or not. Suter made half of that here yet was the better player. Was he not elite because of his lower salary?
There is a budgeted amount on each team for forwards defensemen and goalies now these may be tweeked leaning toward offense as the Sabres have done or defensively as DP tried to do when trying to re-sign Suter. When players have a number particularly one over 7 mil attached to them they are that teams building block. Call the elite building block or foundation each team has one or two but can't afford a third and remain to ice a competitive team without holes.

Look at the Loungo or Dipetro situations as plans gone wrong. by health or other reasons also consider Marc Savard teams now in the Cap world depend on these multi million dollar players to be the foundation. Campbell must do so just as Weber and Rinne must here. There must be balance in talent and salary or your team ends up like the Pens in this playoff.

So if Florida picks Jones I will be somewhat surprised but they can justify it and the will look like the Preds of the East great defense and goaltending if the get Louongo but struggle to score enough often enough.

And if Jones is there at 4 and DP backs up his words and takes the guy the next two years will be much like our previous years continuing struggle to score more than 2 goals on a consistent basis. And then make a decision which of Jones, Josi or Weber is moved after Jones comes out of the ELC.

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06-27-2013, 02:15 PM
  #537
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Wow...good point. I'm with ya...I would be slightly disappointed in only later picks, but we still get Nich/Lindholm/Monahan and two firsts? Hmmmmmm.....
Yeah, I have no idea if it would pay off but I would do that in a heartbeat over Jones. The #6 gets you a pretty safe pick and Poile probably could find the best d-man in the draft with one of those others. Add a bonus forward and I'd say yes for sure.

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06-27-2013, 02:22 PM
  #538
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I don't get some people's fascination with not drafting Jones (which will be irrelevant because he'll be gone). He's going to be a stud in this league for many years, and is rated #1 overall by many scouts. People can moan and complain that he isn't a forward, but trading away the best player available (and arguably overall) for that reason doesn't make sense to me. Weber/Josi/Jones/Klein/Ellis as our top 5 defensemen opens up a world of possibilities for the future, including trade packages.

Just because he's a defenseman doesn't mean we wouldn't be extremely lucky to have him. If we could pick him, and trade the pick instead, I'll forever be pissed off watching Jones succeed for the next decade, and we're busy watching our minor league system/Europe to see how our non-elite prospects we got in the trade are progressing. Year after year.

Moving down to 6 (for example) to pick Lindholm or Monahan is all well and good in theory, but they likely won't be the impact player Jones would be for us, regardless of their positions. Getting Calgary's 22nd and 28th picks would be essentially just like any normal draft position we would be in, and the odds are extremely low their careers would ever even sniff the amount of production Jones's will have.

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06-27-2013, 02:28 PM
  #539
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People don't like the idea because we've had teams with 2 elite defenders and didn't score enough to win more than 2 rounds.

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06-27-2013, 02:32 PM
  #540
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Byrddog, keep in mind that Campbell's overpriced contract expires in three years, at the same time that Jones will be coming off of his ELC and looking to sign an SPC.

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06-27-2013, 02:34 PM
  #541
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People don't like the idea because we've had teams with 2 elite defenders and didn't score enough to win more than 2 rounds.
Win more than one round. But yes. I get that, but this isn't drafting Ryan Ellis or Blum. This is a clear-cut, projected game changer. I'd take Jones over the 4th or 5th rated forward all day, every day. Draft Jones, package Ellis and another asset in a trade for offense. God forbid, sign offense in free agency. I don't care. I feel like Jones would have a better long-term impact on our team than Lindholm or Monahan.

It doesn't matter because he's 95% likely gonna be gone at that point, but I feel like passing up a cant-miss is a bad call.

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06-27-2013, 02:37 PM
  #542
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Maybe three elite defenders will get us over the hump

We may not win a Cup with Weber/Josi/Jones, but I'll tell you one thing. We'll win a hell of a lot of HF Board polls asking which team has the best defense. That's almost like winning a Cup.

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06-27-2013, 02:48 PM
  #543
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Moving down to 6 (for example) to pick Lindholm or Monahan is all well and good in theory, but they likely won't be the impact player Jones would be for us, regardless of their positions. Getting Calgary's 22nd and 28th picks would be essentially just like any normal draft position we would be in, and the odds are extremely low their careers would ever even sniff the amount of production Jones's will have.
Good point...

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06-27-2013, 03:18 PM
  #544
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I don't get some people's fascination with not drafting Jones (which will be irrelevant because he'll be gone). He's going to be a stud in this league for many years, and is rated #1 overall by many scouts. People can moan and complain that he isn't a forward, but trading away the best player available (and arguably overall) for that reason doesn't make sense to me. Weber/Josi/Jones/Klein/Ellis as our top 5 defensemen opens up a world of possibilities for the future, including trade packages.

Just because he's a defenseman doesn't mean we wouldn't be extremely lucky to have him. If we could pick him, and trade the pick instead, I'll forever be pissed off watching Jones succeed for the next decade, and we're busy watching our minor league system/Europe to see how our non-elite prospects we got in the trade are progressing. Year after year.

Moving down to 6 (for example) to pick Lindholm or Monahan is all well and good in theory, but they likely won't be the impact player Jones would be for us, regardless of their positions. Getting Calgary's 22nd and 28th picks would be essentially just like any normal draft position we would be in, and the odds are extremely low their careers would ever even sniff the amount of production Jones's will have.
Well, my simple answer is that it's emotional. I was at the first Preds game and have seen nearly every game since and I'm starved for scoring goodness. After 15 years... over 1,000 games... I'm desperate for some sizzle. I'll readily admit that it may not be the right move or the smart move. The Bolts were as bad as us but their fans at least got treated to Stamkos and St. Louis. I felt disgusted when we picked Ellis at his spot with Eberle on the board... that may not be logical since Poile had him as the clear BPA but that's where I was.

My more complicated answer is that it's rationale. I believe this team has the foundation in place to make a run during a 3 year window that probably starts in 3 years. That clock is ticking. Weber/Pekka will be at their prime, Josi should be peaking as Suter/Weber did. We should have some solid veteran forwards in place that still have gas in the tank. What we need is one or two or three young buck forwards that can maximize our chances for the Cup. I think our odds of signing them as UFA's or trading for them are very, very, very low. In my view, we likely don't have enough prospects in house that will develop into enough to do that- Wilson and FF are a great core but we need more. This is our best chance to add to that. Every year that passes in getting and developing that kind of asset pushes the window back in my opinion and risks it never arriving.

3 first round picks work for me, where you can get Lindholm/Nich plus two quality first round picks to diversify the risk. I understand the BPA argument, I really do. It probably is the path Poile takes and it's why he is GM. But 2 first round picks is enough for me to logically bridge the gap between Jones and Lindholm/Nich and it is emotionally far more satisfying.

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06-27-2013, 03:31 PM
  #545
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I wouldn't take that deal from Calgary. We have had plenty mid to late first round picks. You take the BPA at #4 unless it is a massive overpayment. IMO three firsts two if which are late firsts are not worth the franchise player we could be looking at with the #4.

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06-27-2013, 03:47 PM
  #546
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Im not against drafting any of the top 10 guys. But if trading this pick would bring a 30 goal scorer in the NHL that has a contract we could live with I would prefer that. Drafting with the hope that any pick will live up to there hype and hinging a teams future on it is deflating to me. it is possible that one of the top five could be a franchise player. And chances are one of them will be, but it will not be a defenseman. We can all agree we have one of the top 5 defensemen in the league and that has yet to put the team over the top. One can even consider Lidstrom's time in Detroit he did not win those championships alone. ANd I doubt if he played with Fish, Leggy, SK, Wilson, ect ect that he would have been better than Weber.

SO if Jones is there at 4 DP must take him as the BPA but he must then have a plan to shed salary from somewhere and rebuild this offense. Theres not much left when it comes to veterans on that side of the ice. Before the loss of Erat and SK the top 6 was weak now its even weaker. There is potential in Borque, FF, Wilson and Barkov, Druion but if these 5 are the answer Poile gives us then it is time for him to retire. The defense and goaltending is not broke it needs a tweek or two yes. But the offense is a bloody mess. Since 07-08 there have been 13 20 goal seasons on the team this goes back to the Arnott 28 and 33 goal years as well.

With all the attention on this draft selection it in itself is not going to improve this team very much at all. Now if nothing eklse is done and next year we get another top 3 pick to go along with Druion or Barkov then help could be here 2016. But enduring another streak like the last shortened season and the Dive ending is just not stomachable as a fan. Most want the team to go past 2nd round but it will not even sniff the playoffs for a couple years now if the cupboard is not cleaned out and reset.

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06-27-2013, 03:54 PM
  #547
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Well, my simple answer is that it's emotional. I was at the first Preds game and have seen nearly every game since and I'm starved for scoring goodness. After 15 years... over 1,000 games... I'm desperate for some sizzle. I'll readily admit that it may not be the right move or the smart move. The Bolts were as bad as us but their fans at least got treated to Stamkos and St. Louis. I felt disgusted when we picked Ellis at his spot with Eberle on the board... that may not be logical since Poile had him as the clear BPA but that's where I was.
I was at the first game as well, and have seen most games in between so I understand you there. But I want wins. I couldn't care less how it happens, I want to win. If it's shutting teams down and getting scoring from wherever we can get it, then fine. Sure, we picked Ellis when Eberle was available, but as far as Jones is concerned, I don't think there will be a lot of people in three years saying "I can't believe we picked Jones when we had Monahan right there" (or Lindholm/whatever).

Quote:
My more complicated answer is that it's rationale. I believe this team has the foundation in place to make a run during a 3 year window that probably starts in 3 years. That clock is ticking. Weber/Pekka will be at their prime, Josi should be peaking as Suter/Weber did. We should have some solid veteran forwards in place that still have gas in the tank. What we need is one or two or three young buck forwards that can maximize our chances for the Cup. I think our odds of signing them as UFA's or trading for them are very, very, very low. In my view, we likely don't have enough prospects in house that will develop into enough to do that- Wilson and FF are a great core but we need more. This is our best chance to add to that. Every year that passes in getting and developing that kind of asset pushes the window back in my opinion and risks it never arriving.

3 first round picks work for me, where you can get Lindholm/Nich plus two quality first round picks to diversify the risk. I understand the BPA argument, I really do. It probably is the path Poile takes and it's why he is GM. But 2 first round picks is enough for me to logically bridge the gap between Jones and Lindholm/Nich and it is emotionally far more satisfying.
If we really do have a time frame like that, then this draft won't do much to help in that time frame unless we have one of the big 4...IMO. I think we're far more destined for short-term success with Jones on our roster, than with Lindholm/Monahan coupled with whoever those two other late-first rounders end up being. We have young guys like Wilson, Smith, Forsberg, Beck, Watson, etc that we're grooming to be impact guys with a few years under their belts, sure, but I feel like...in theory....passing on Jones for lesser players is a desperate attempt to catch lightning in a bottle (no pun intended with Tampa's offense).

The bottom line (to me) is I think everyone can agree that teams that draft Mackinnon, Jones, Drouin, and Barkov are going to get a legitimate cant-miss franchise player. With my thoughts on Jones, it isn't even necessarily a BPA argument. I mean I guess it is, but unintentionally. I just think it's undeniable that he will be a very successful NHL player. You don't pass up someone like that (in my mnind). There's no large consensus like that for Monahan or Lindholm, much less whoever goes 22nd or 28th.

Trading down to get a lesser player who we hope can one day fill a void, plus two picks in the 20s is a gamble. In that case, we might as well just pick Nichushkin.

I get what you, and many others, are saying about needing offense, and I would like it too, but I don't think it's smart to force ourselves to get rid of a future star if the top 3 picks happen to be guys we need more.


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06-27-2013, 04:09 PM
  #548
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Win more than one round. But yes. I get that, but this isn't drafting Ryan Ellis or Blum. This is a clear-cut, projected game changer.
But Ellis or Blum isn't the comparison here, it's to Suter, and even the Weber/Suter + anemic offense wasn't enough to get us over the hump. And yes, having Josi makes a difference in that formula (more depth), but he's not one of the league's best defenseman, yet.

I'd be bummed if we don't upgrade the offense hugely at the draft, even acknowledging Jones' quality.

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06-27-2013, 04:12 PM
  #549
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What is this team known for when it comes to the draft? Goalies and defensemen. We have had some luck at forward but we have never drafted or developed a game breaker/elite forward other than maybe Radulov. I think we can all agree on this. This isn't a slam on Poile or Trotz. This is me stating the obvious and I don't think anyone can argue this point. Not trying to argue about this.

Who have our best forwards been over the years? Sully, Arnott, Kariya and Dumont. Erat and Legwand had a few good years but those 4 were the most dynamic players we've ever had. We got those guys via free agency or trade.

So one of three things needs to happen to make this team better, sign some free agent forwards via free agency that are dynamic talents, make a trade for some dynamic talents up front or figure out a way to draft more dynamic forwards that can develop into elite NHL talents. The powers that be need to figure out ways to do all three of these better IMO for the team to get better. Sully was a steal. Dumont was a steal as Buffalo messed up. Free agency this year could be a crap shoot unless some more buyouts happen in which case we may be able to land some talent. Some trades may happen as teams need to get under the cap. A dynamic forward could be drafted at 4 this year if Jones is picked in the top 3. Some of these may happen. All of them may happen. None of them may happen.

If Jones is on the board, you take him and fill the void via free agency or trade and make the best of it. Trading down to get a lesser talent puts us right back in the same spot we're in right now. Taking two more first round picks later in the first round is just as much a crap shoot as just taking the BPA and using him or others as assets later on down the road.

I get that the fan base wants offense. Heck, I want offense. At the same time, I want to maximize what we have in the number 4 pick this year and that player is still here to help us great or if that player is used to land us what we need later on down the line, so be it and I'm thrilled. We cannot get hung up on need as much as taking a player that is dynamic. Jones is just that. A superb talent on the blue line. It's not sexy. It's not pretty but it solidifies one of our needs, a second pairing defenseman to play with Klein. We have other holes up front but we have one pick and if that pick fills a hole, Poile has done his job, regardless of what we think the team needs. Sometimes you can't plug all the holes in your roster but if you can plug one for the next 7-9 years, you do it and if it's Jones, oh well, we'll have to live with it. If it's Barkov or Drouin, that's great too. Poile is not trading down unless he gets blown away with an offer. Maybe someone wows him on draft day but the only way we trade the number 4 is if we really want a forward and move up to get him.

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06-27-2013, 04:15 PM
  #550
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Quote:
Originally Posted by glenngineer View Post
If Jones is on the board, you take him and fill the void via free agency or trade and make the best of it.
Cliff Notes.

Bam.

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